For most Floridians from the north central peninsula south its been a year without winter so far. When will that change? No one knows for sure but long range forecasts are hinting at a cool down in late January 2019. Scroll all the way to the bottom of this post for updates on that forecast.
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Part of my daily routine has been to kayak out into our little 1500 acre Lake Theresa and catch the sunset every afternoon. In a typical winter it would likely be a bit windy and cool. But as you can see from these pictures its been anything but. Most days have been in the mid 80°s (~29° C) and there has been little if any wind or weather.
December 2018
Much Warmer than Normal
An active southern jet stream led to the development of multiple low pressure systems across the Gulf Coast and southeast states from early to mid December. Several accompanying cool fronts brought opportunities for showers and thunderstorms to east central Florida; however, the heaviest rainfall in association with these systems was confined to the Interstate 4 corridor and points north. As a result, most climate and cooperative observing sites across northern portions of the area recorded their top 10 wettest Decembers on record, while a few miles south the lack of rain led to the expansion of Moderate Drought conditions throughout the Space and Treasure Coasts as well as Okeechobee County.
Temperatures at the beginning and end of the month averaged well above normal, with numerous record highs and record warm lows set throughout east central Florida. Despite several cool fronts passing through the area, any post-frontal cooling was short-lived, and as a result, temperatures averaged about 1 to 2 degrees above normal for the month.
Record High Temperatures
Temperatures started off the month well above normal, with record highs recorded at every climate site within east central Florida. In fact, Melbourne tied their all-time highest December temperature (90°) on the 3rd of the month, and Vero Beach set a new all-time highest temperature (89°) for the month on both the 2nd and 3rd.
A cold front broke the warm streak on December 4th and brought several days of relatively cool temperatures. Several additional fronts brought periods of cooler temperatures through the middle of the month; however, their duration was short-lived. By the end of December, a strong ridge over the state brought well above normal temperatures as well as several new record highs and record warm lows to the area.
- Daytona Beach had a monthly average temperature of 62.5° Fahrenheit, which was 2.0° above normal.
- Sanford had a monthly average temperature of 63.5° Fahrenheit, which was 1.5° above normal.
- Orlando had a monthly average temperature of 64.3° Fahrenheit, which was 1.7° above normal.
- Melbourne had a monthly average temperature of 66.1° Fahrenheit, which was 3.1° above normal.
- Vero Beach had a monthly average temperature of 66.5° Fahrenheit, which was 1.9° above normal.
- Fort Pierce had a monthly average temperature of 66.3° Fahrenheit, which was 1.1° above normal.
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Active Southern Jet Stream Drenches North Florida
An active southern jet stream led to the development of several low pressure systems along the Gulf Coast and over the southeast states, which along with their accompanying cold fronts brought several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms to the area. A cool front brought spotty rainfall to the area early in the month, with amounts averaging between 0.50 and 1.00" on December 4th.
Later in the month, fronts associated with strong low pressure systems over the southeast states brought more showers and storms; however, the heaviest amounts were generally confined to the Interstate 4 corridor and points north.
The strongest storm system brought widespread rainfall amounts between 2 to 3 inches across northern portions of east central Florida on December 20th, with Daytona Beach, Orlando, and Sanford all reporting record amounts for the date. In fact, this event led to the highest one-day rainfall total for 2018 at both Orlando (3.65 inches) and Sanford (2.58 inches). While Lake Theresa where all of these images were made received around 4.00 inches.
As a result, monthly rainfall averaged above to well above normal across much of the Interstate 4 corridor and points northward, even though all the rain came on one day, and several climate and cooperative observer sites reported their top 10 wettest Decembers on record.
Across the Space and Treasure Coasts as well as Okeechobee County, rainfall averaged near to below normal, which led to the expansion of Moderate Drought (D1) conditions throughout these areas.
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Daily Record Rainfall for December 2018
Daytona Beach: - December 20th: Record rainfall of 2.60 inches. Previous record was 2.51 inches last set in 1983.
Orlando: - December 20th: Record rainfall of 3.65 inches. Previous record was 1.50 inches last set in 1911.
Sanford: - December 15th: Record rainfall of 0.64 inches. Previous record was 0.54 inches last set in 1960.
- December 20th: Record rainfall of 2.58 inches. Previous record was 1.87 inches last set in 1995.
December 2018 rainfall totals for the primary climate sites across east central Florida are as follows (ranking provided if in the top 10):
- Daytona Beach received 4.88 inches of rain for the month, which was 2.25 inches above normal. This ranks as the 9th highest rainfall total for December for this site, with records extending back to 1923.
- Sanford received 5.86 inches of rain for the month, which was 3.16 inches above normal. This ranks as the 5th highest rainfall total for December on record for this site, with records extending back to 1948.
- Orlando received 6.80 inches of rain for the month, which was 4.22 inches above normal. This ranks as the 5th highest rainfall total for December on record for this site, with records extending back to 1892.
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Much Drier to the South
Typically an El niño winter (like this one) would bring enhanced rainfall to all of the Florida peninsula. That has not happened, yet. While El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific the atmosphere has not yet responded to the warmer ocean temperatures. The expectation is that atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth and bring all of Florida much needed rain. Almost all models (below) now predict moderate El Niño conditions to persist into summer 2019.
For December 2018:
- Melbourne received 1.63 inches of rain for the month, which was 0.94 inches below normal.
- Vero Beach received 1.56 inches of rain for the month, which was 0.63 inches below normal.
- Fort Pierce received 2.19 inches of rain for the month, which was 0.08 inches above normal.
Cooperative Observer Station Rainfall Rankings:
- Clermont received 7.53 inches of rain for the month, which is the 3rd highest rainfall total for December on record for this site, with records going back to 1948.
- Deland received 6.63 inches of rain for the month, which is the 7th highest rainfall total for December on record for this site, with records going back to 1895.
- Titusville received 5.16 inches of rain for the month, which is the 9th highest rainfall total for December on record for this site, with records going back to 1901.
Below is a list of observed precipitation totals and rainfall statistics for select sites across east central Florida for December 2018:
Station December 2018 Normal Departure Percent of Rainfall Rainfall From Normal Normal Daytona Beach 4.88" 2.63" +2.25" 186% (DAB) Orlando 6.80" 2.58" +4.22" 264% (MCO)
Melbourne 1.63" 2.57" -0.94" 63% (MLB)
Vero Beach 1.56" 2.19" -0.63" 71% (VRB)
Clermont 7.53" 2.89" +4.64" 261% (CLRF1)
Leesburg 5.55" 2.52" +3.03" 220% (LEE)
DeLand 6.33" 2.82" +3.51" 224% (DELF1)
Sanford 5.86" 2.70" +3.16" 217% (SFB)
Titusville 5.16" 2.56" +2.60" 202% (TITF1)
Fort Pierce 2.19" 2.11" +0.08" 104% (FPR)
Stuart 1.56" 2.90" -1.34" 54% (STRF1)
The GFS model is now forecasting the first major cold front that might make it down the Florida peninsula for January 23-24th. Stay tuned for updates.
The image above forecasts the freezing weather to be occurring as far south as southern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia (red line dividing blues and greens = freeze line).
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The Trump Shutdown Closes Canaveral National Seashore
The seashore's 24 miles of undeveloped beach are off limits now for going on 3 weeks just as race weeks heat up. All 58,000 acres are closed though we saw people going around barricades on foot and on bikes.
As an alternative consider the area around Ponce Inlet on either the Daytona or New Smyrna Beach side. There is free parking near the marine science center and lighthouse on the north side but parking is limited on the south side to metered parking or $10 lot parking.