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| Forecast Temperature Anomaly at Noon, January 30th, 2019 by the American Model. 50° below normal (which is already pretty cold) in the Upper Midwest. |
One of the most severe cold air outbreaks in years is possible from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast next week as the jet stream crashes south and a large lobe of the polar vortex plunges toward the Great Lakes. The cold air could make it as far as Florida. Currently the American model is predicting a freezing event for Florida while the European model is less bullish on a Florida freeze.
Computer models forecast the brutal cold to crash into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest starting Tuesday. The core of the frigid blast would grip the region from the Dakotas to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday, sending cities such as Minneapolis, Des Moines, Green Bay, Milwaukee, Chicago and Detroit into a teeth-chattering freeze. The current NOAA forecast for Chicago is a high of -4°F on January 30th.
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Confidence in a significant outbreak of Arctic air is high, but it’s too soon to project its exact strength and final legacy. Model predictions for the intensity of the cold snap range from historic and record-breaking to rather run-of-the-mill for midwinter. And as fo whether the outbreak will cause a Florida freeze? The models remain divided.
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| The European Model predicts a -25°C anomaly over Minnesota and Wisconsin but not quite as cold over Florida, until January 31. |
The primary simulation from the American modeling system forecasts temperatures in the Midwest and Great Lakes next Wednesday to be 40° to 50° colder than normal—which is a massive anomaly in the heart of winter when it is already very cold. Cold of this intensity would be extremely dangerous—producing widespread wind chills of minus-50° to minus-60° from Minneapolis to Chicago.
The European model also forecasts incredible cold extremes but arriving about a day later than the American model—focused on Thursday, January 31, 2019.
However, the new, experimental version of the American model suggests a less intense Arctic blast, with temperatures a more manageable but still bone-chilling 15° to 30° below normal in that Wednesday-Thursday (Jan 30-31, 2019) period.
Models sometimes have a tendency to exaggerate the intensity of the cold in forecasts five or more days into the future, so it is premature to predict a cold snap of historic intensity. That said, while differing on the details, models are unanimous that this will be the coldest air in the Lower 48 so far this winter.
The National Weather Service produces temperature maps that blend all of the different models together. Next Thursday morning, it projects frigid low temperatures of minus-20° to minus-30° over all of Minnesota, and minus-10° to minus-20° over northern Illinois, including around minus-15° in Chicago. Factoring in the wind, it would feel like minus-30° to minus-50° in these areas.
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| Its probably too soon to tell but models are forecasting freezing temperatures well into the central Gulf of Mexico on January 31, 2019, this could be Florida's coldest air of the winter. |
This model blend forecasts subzero temperatures over the entire Great Lakes region and as far south as southern Illinois to southwest Pennsylvania.
The zone from Minnesota to the Great Lakes will probably experience the brunt of this polar plunge, perhaps bleeding into the interior parts of the Northeast. By the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Thursday and Friday next week, its intensity should moderate. Even so, it would still be very cold— perhaps around 10° to 30° degrees below normal, depending on the cold snap’s ultimate strength.
Models predict this Arctic blast to be relatively short-lived, lasting two to three days before temperatures start returning to normal. However, reinforcing shots of Arctic air may return in the period 10 days to two weeks from now — but it is too soon to predict their potency. In recent years Florida's coldest air has come in late February or early March.
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| European Model 850 hPa Temperature Anomalies Jan 31, 2019. The 850 hPa air pressure level is situated about 1.5 km above sea level. This means that the surface does not influence the temperature at this altitude, so the diurnal temperature variations are small. They are about 2-3 degrees, or they do not exist, at all. This is why temperature of the 850 hPa level is used for identification of air masses and location of warm and cold fronts. Moreover, temperature variation of the 850 hPa level can be analysed in themselves, as indicators of climate 1500 meters above the sea level. |
Meteorologists have warned severe outbreaks of Arctic air would be possible following the early January fracture of the stratospheric polar vortex, a zone of roaring winds 60,000 feet high in the atmosphere surrounding the North Pole. Since the vortex was disrupted, it has increased north-to-south flow from the Arctic to the mid-latitudes—like a freezer door suddenly swung open.
The increase in this north-to-south flow is what will allow the polar vortex at lower altitudes (in the layer known as the troposphere, where airplanes fly and weather occurs) to drop south toward the South next week, unleashing a sprawling plume of frigid air.
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Marie Kondo: The Tidying Tide
“Tidying Up With Marie Kondo” is an eight-part series hosted by the Japanese-born decluttering diva and space healer. (Denise Crew/Netflix)
Americans woke up on New Year’s Day, bloated in body and soul, and stumbled out of bed to survey their overstuffed post-holiday homes.
It’s no accident that was the day Netflix chose to release “Tidying Up With Marie Kondo,” an eight-part series hosted by the Japanese-born decluttering diva and space healer.
Although resolving to clean up stuff is a typical New Year’s resolution, there is rarely something as motivating to kick-start the process as a reality makeover show that’s not about weird hoarders. Binge-watching a cheery woman in a flippy skirt who drives up to people’s ranch houses or apartments in a black van and patiently shows them how to deal with their baseball cards or sneaker collections is inspiring. (Reminder: The KonMari Method, as it is called, asks you to hold each possession and ask yourself whether it sparks joy, and if it doesn’t, thank it for its service and let it go.)
[Marie Kondo brings something besides her famous tidying skills to reality TV: Gratitude]
The show seems to have started a national conversation about overbuying and over-stashing. Many opened junk drawers and toy chests while watching the show and started dumping. Shoe boxes were repurposed as drawer organizers, and T-shirts were folded in the crisp KonMari style.
Millennials texted friends photos of their newly neat sock drawers and makeup trays and posted them on Instagram. Furloughed government workers spent their time off sifting through closets and lugging shopping bags of clothes to consignment shops. Auction houses got calls from consumers desperate to get unwanted furniture out of their living rooms; consignment shops filled up appointment slots weeks into the future.
Kondo, 34, started out as an organizing consultant while a university student in Tokyo. Her 2011 book “The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up” (published in the United States in 2014) put her on the clutter-busting map. Today, more than 11 million copies of her three books have been sold worldwide. Her Instagram account, @mariekondo, had 710,711 followers as of Dec. 31, 2018; by Thursday it had swelled to more than 1.1 million.
Although Netflix won’t share any viewership data, this show clearly hit a nerve.