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El Niño means full lakes and warm weather for Florida. The last weeks of February to be in the upper 80°s (~30°C)February 2019 ENSO Update:El Niño conditions are hereAfter several months of flirting, the tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere appear to have coupled just in time for Valentine’s Day and now meet the criteria for El Niño conditions. Is it true love? Time will tell, but forecasters expect weak El Niño conditions to persist through the spring. El Niño Officially ArrivesFor a few months now, the tropical Pacific has met the first two criteria of our “Is It El Niño Conditions?” decision tree. |
Summary of decision process in determining El Niño conditions. NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Glen Becker and Fiona Martin.
That is, the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean has been more than 0.5°C above the long-term average, and models were predicting it would stay that way for the next several seasons.
Monthly sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for 2018 (purple line) and all other El Niño years since 1950. Climate.gov graph based on ERSSTv5 temperature data.
What’s new over the past month is that we’re seeing signs of El Niño-related changes in the atmosphere, with increased clouds and rain in the central Pacific indicating a weaker Walker circulation. One measurement of the strength of the Walker circulation, the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index, was -0.6 during January, indicating more rising air than average over the eastern Pacific, and less than average over the western Pacific. These changes are enough evidence that the atmosphere is responding to the warmer ocean, leading us to conclude we have El Niño conditions!
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| This is how we like to see Florida lakes, full of clean, clear, blue water. El Niño is largely responsible for Central Florida's wetter than average winter. |
Walker Circulation
The Walker circulation—the atmospheric circulation over the whole tropical Pacific Ocean—is usually driven by intense rising air over the very warm waters of the far western Pacific and Indonesia. This air rises to the upper atmosphere, travels eastward, sinks over the eastern Pacific, and travels back westward near the surface, forming the trade winds.
When El Niño’s warmer-than-average surface waters develop in the central-eastern Pacific, the Walker circulation is weakened. The extra heat in the ocean surface warms the air above it, leading to more rising motion, and hence more clouds and rain than average over the central-eastern tropical Pacific. Adding a source of rising air over the central-eastern Pacific, and reducing the rising air over the far western Pacific, means the steady upper-level and near-surface winds are disrupted. Those weaker-than-average near-surface winds in turn help to keep the surface warmer, in a feedback process critical to the coupled system of El Niño.
Sea Surface Warming
The surface warming in the Niño 3.4 region is currently just a few tenths of a degree above the El Niño threshold (0.5°C warmer than average), and actually decreased through January. Most of the climate models predict that the surface temperature anomaly (the difference from the long-term mean) will increase slightly in the near future, and remain above the El Niño threshold through the spring.
Downwelling Kelvin Wave Moving Eastward
Bolstering forecasters’ confidence that short-term surface warming will rebound and then persist for the next few months is the presence of warmer-than-average water below the surface of the Pacific. This blob, a downwelling Kelvin wave, will travel eastward over the next few weeks, gradually rising and providing a source of warmer waters to the surface.
Departure from average of the surface and subsurface tropical Pacific sea temperature averaged over 5-day periods starting in early June 2018. The vertical axis is depth below the surface (meters) and the horizontal axis is longitude, from the western to eastern tropical Pacific. This cross-section is right along the equator. Climate.gov figure from CPC data.
If history repeats itself Florida should remain warmer and wetter than normal through April 2019.
El Niño Likely Lasting Through Spring 2019
But what does it all mean? Is this relationship built to last? The future remains to be seen, but forecasters give weak El Niño conditions the edge through the spring. After that, chances of a continued El Niño drop below 50%. It’s tough to make a successful forecast for later in the year, due in large part to the “spring predictability barrier,” a notoriously tricky obstacle for computer models. Spring is a time of year when ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Niño and La Niña system) is often transitioning, making it especially difficult to predict what comes next.
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| Expect plenty of kayaking weather between fast moving (hopefully wet) weather fronts through at least March of 2019. |
Weak El Niño conditions means that El Niño isn’t dominating the global circulation, and there is a lower probability of El Niño-related global temperature and precipitation effects through the next few months. Other players, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, may continue to affect weather patterns. For a prediction of the U.S. climate this spring, check out the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook.
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| Fast food French fries, ranked. (Lucas Kwan Peterson / Stephen Lurvey) |
The official fast food French fry power rankings
Look, it’s been a long two years for everyone. We’re tired, our brains have been melted to a thin pap by the news cycle, and we’ve soundly backslid into our slothful ways despite resolving to exercise off all the cookies we cry-ate over the holiday. During times like this, it’s necessary to celebrate small victories. Celebrate the fact that you woke up this morning, and did or did not remember to bathe. Celebrate the fact that your insurance company has decided that therapy “should” cost $50 per session.
And celebrate the fact that I bring tidings of great joy. After a barely noticeable hiatus, I’m happy to announce the return of the food power rankings just in time for February, our shortest, drizzliest and most romantic month. That’s right, my friends, I am pleased as punch to announce the authoritative, totally not subjective, incontrovertibly definitive and 100% correct L.A. Times Fast Food French Fry Rankings.
French fries, a.k.a. chips, aka freedom fries, aka 炸薯条, are a delightful treat enjoyed the world over, and they’re a staple of the fast-food meal. And what is fast food, exactly? For the purposes of this survey, I've selected chains where there’s an emphasis on speed of service, you’re not waited on at a table, and where there are at least a couple hundred locations, if not more. I ordered medium- or regular-sized fries (when available) and judged them based on the two metrics: (1) taste and (2) texture, which includes fry shape and mouthfeel.
Upper right French fry quadrant (Lucas Kwan Peterson / Stephen Lurvey)
(1) Five Guys. This is No. 1 with an asterisk, like Wilt Chamberlain’s 100 points, or Cy Young’s 749 complete games. Not only is Five Guys No. 1, but it’s also so far ahead of everyone else it’s almost unfair. You get a generous heap of hot, properly salted, natural-cut spuds, with a good balance between crispy fries and the odd one that’s pleasingly soft. Five Guys fries in peanut oil, which imparts a milder taste than more industrial oils that mask potato flavor. These were the fries that tasted most strongly of tuber.
Excellence comes with a price, though – a medium order of these fries costs roughly double that of other chains.
(2) McDonald's. McDonald’s fries, for approximately 4½ minutes, while they’re absolutely searing hot, are the greatest food on Earth. But their half-life is astoundingly fast, and by the time these babies are cold, they taste like mealy little icicles. The batch I sampled was warm, not piping, so their greatness was compromised. But I love a thin fry and, perhaps more, I love the memory of great McDonald’s fries I’ve had in the past.
(3) Del Taco. In this ranking, Del Taco is the University of Maryland, Baltimore County taking out Virginia in the first round of March Madness. I came in with the lowest of expectations for Del Taco fries – this is a Southern California-based taco chain after all, and I didn’t even know they had fries until I went in.
Hello, upset! This was a very decent batch of crinkle fries, with a crispy, salty outside and nice, fluffy center. Even better was that the employee who took my order gave me packets of both ketchup and smoky hot sauce with my order.
(4) Steak 'n Shake. If you lived in Normal, Ill., in the 1930s, it was probably exhilarating to pull into a Steak ‘n Shake, founded by ex-Marine Gus Belt. The chain’s signature Steakburgers, ground from sirloin, round, and T-bone cuts, allowed it to thrive in Midwest despite the Great Depression.
As stated, I’m a fan of a narrower fry. These fries are long and skinny, but not quite shoestring, with a slightly thick exterior that provides a satisfying crunch.
(5) Arby's. Blessed be the curly fries, and my memories of eating them in the high school cafeteria. Always consistent, with their burnt sienna coating and powdered onion and garlic flavor, and always delicious. The special treat? The one fry that didn’t quite uncurl and left the fryer in one giant potato-y, batter-y lump.
While other fast food places also have them, Arby’s is the chain that’s really known for its curly fries. How it came to corner the market on that, I’m not sure, but I’m fairly convinced it’s kept the lights on – when was the last time you ate one of their roast beef sandwiches? Curly fries are delicious – crispy, assertively seasoned and amusingly shaped – but they almost feel like cheating. Like, would it even be possible to mess up a curly fry?
Bottom right French fry quadrant. (Lucas Kwan Peterson / Stephen Lurvey)
(6) Carl's Jr. Some fast food chains offer more than one kind of fry – I don’t have enough Lipitor to try and rank them all, unfortunately. I merely mention this because Carl’s Jr., which began as a hot dog cart in Los Angeles in 1941, offers both regular fries and a seasoned waffle fry. The regular fries are pretty good, approximately the size and shape of a Wendy’s fry, but it was the waffle fry that stood out as a “Best of Breed,” to borrow Westminster Dog Show parlance – a crispy, seasoned outside, and a pillowy interior.
(7) Dairy Queen. A heartier, thicker fry is what you’ll find at Dairy Queen, where employees hold Blizzard frozen treats upside down before handing them to customers in order to prove how thick they are. (It seems like an odd flex – when going over qualities you like in your ice cream, not many think, “Oh, you know, I just like it to be really thick.”)
The fries at DQ are hefty potato batons, long and girthy, with a decent crunch and respectable mouthfeel. The potato flavor isn’t particularly notable, but the chocolate-dipped vanilla cone you can get afterward will swaddle you in a dreamy, childlike warmth that will erase any memories of what you previously ate.
(8) Wendy's. Disclosure: I was in a Wendy’s commercial several years ago wherein I played an office worker who got rhapsodically upset to strains of Leoncavallo’s “Pagliacci” over the fact that he wasn’t enjoying a delicious Wendy’s hamburger.
In real life, I don’t particularly love Wendy’s burgers (although I do enjoy a nice Frosty), and I think their fries are just above average. This batch of fries, “natural-cut with sea salt” and bits of potato skin attached, was pleasantly floppy – I don’t mind a soft fry – but it could have used a pinch or three more of that sea salt. The potato flavor was strong, and almost made up for other shortcomings.
(9) Shack Shake. Is it fair to compare Shake Shack, which went from zero to 200 locations in 15 years, with other chains? It serves fancified fast food that challenges the traditional model. It's relatively expensive. It uses potato rolls. It’s staunchly against the drive-through window. In certain ways it’s the anti-fast-food restaurant, but the basics remain the same: burgers, fries, shakes.
Shake Shack does a crinkle-cut fry that’s solid but largely unnoteworthy. A uniform crunch on the outside gives way to decent potato taste on the inside. My order could have been a bit hotter.
Upper left French fry quadrant (Lucas Kwan Peterson / Stephen Lurvey)
(10) Burger King. As goes life, Burger King will never truly escape the shadow of its more successful, better-looking brother, McDonald’s. Burger King’s fries seem to be a direct response to the skinny numbers they serve at McDonald’s: slightly thicker, and with a light, crunchy exterior that houses a fairly milquetoast, flavor-free interior.
Parents do play favorites, despite what we may hope, and Burger King, despite its efforts, can simply never win this battle. The fries at Burger King aren’t bad, but they’re certainly nothing to write home about.
(11) Chick Fil-A. Blogger note: This company is disqualified because their fries are essentially bigot fries. Why does anyone still eat here?
Waffle fries aren’t my favorite shape – why try to make your fries look like potato chips? But if you’re going to create a potato lattice, so much better to capture your condiment of choice, the lattice should have a crisp exterior.
The company, founded by Truett Cathy as The Dwarf Grill in 1946, operates on biblical principles and is known for a marketing campaign featuring cows understandably trying to save their own lives but are also somewhat typo-prone (“Eat Mor Chikin,” read their billboards). I would offer “Mak Betur Frys” as a counterpoint. The waffle fries at the location near USC, while hot and salty, unfortunately were also fairly soft and mealy.
(12) KFC. Colonel Sanders’ original recipe of 11 herbs and spices is a closely guarded trade secret, supposedly locked away in a huge vault and signed by the colonel himself. And while I question the wisdom of never changing your chicken formula, ever, I will admit that it has lent a considerable mystique and aura to the brand, if not necessarily great food.
Kentucky Fried Chicken is the only chain in this rankings that showcases a wedge fry, which presents an issue: the best part of the fry is the outside, not the inside. With a thick potato wedge, there’s just too much inside. The advantage is that you get a stronger potato flavor than usual; the downside is that you don’t feel like eating many of them. They’re not as munchable or snackable, and they’re quite filling. KFC’s wedges are coated in a fried chicken batter-like coating, which adds some pepperiness.
(13) Jack in the Box. The Jack in the Box I visited had an unusual smell to it – septic tank mixed with cleaning product, each scent sharp and distinct from the other. The fries, sadly, made a not dissimilar impression. They had a decent texture but tasted almost gassy, like there was a leak in the back. The curly fries I ordered, which I elected to have slathered in chili and something resembling cheese, were better but didn’t redeem the experience.
Lower left French fry quadrant (Lucas Kwan Peterson / Stephen Lurvey)
(14) Popeye's. Popeye’s is my favorite fast food fried chicken. But does that excellence translate to fries? The move that chicken places seem to make is to coat their fries with something approximating what coats their chicken. The result is something vaguely like a seasoned fry, but a bit crustier and cakier, with a taste of dried onion and black pepper.
The ones at Popeye’s nearly work, but my batch was on the sad and insipid side. It didn’t help that my $2.99 portion was fairly paltry. The old Annie Hall joke about there being terrible food, and such small portions, sadly rings true in this case.
(15) Wienerschnitzel. Wienerschnitzel takes the honor of being the one restaurant on this list that doesn’t serve the food that its name ostensibly advertises: there is no wienerschnitzel, that delightful Austrian pounded veal treat, anywhere to be found on the menu. There are, however, hot dogs and fries. The fries at Wienerschnitzel are well-executed but otherwise poor. They're approximately McDonald’s-shaped, long and thin, with a fluffy if slightly flavorless interior. The Von Trapps would not be pleased.
(16) Jollibee. I have a lot of respect for Jollibee, primarily because I enjoy the names of their products: items like the Big Yum, Chickenjoy and Jolly Spaghetti sparked a good deal of Marie Kondo-style joy in my otherwise dreary fast food existence. Sadly, the fries on my visit weren’t really up to snuff. They had a vaguely sweet, almost pastry-like overtone that didn't jibe with their being otherwise fairly flat and tepid.
(17) Checkers aka Rally's. Rally’s, which you may also know as Checkers, once had a viral-ish ad campaign with Rap Cat, a cat that meows over a rap beat. My experience watching that video roughly sums up my experience at Rally’s: muttering to myself and musing, “Why do you exist?”
While I appreciate the cute 1950s drive-in look of places like Rally’s, it’s ultimately for naught if the food can’t back it up. In this case, I was unimpressed with the flat and milk-warm seasoned fries I received.
(18) Sonic. Sonic’s drive-in aesthetic works better for me, at least on paper. You park your car in its own little bay with its own little intercom, press the red button, place your order, and wait for one of the car-hops to bring you your food. It seems kind of unmanageable from an logistical point of view, but I appreciate the idea.
These fries, however, were b-a-d bad. They could have been good, or passable, but they had clearly been sitting out for a while, and had taken on the characteristics of F.F.R.M. (French Fry Rigor Mortis), which sets in approximately nine minutes after leaving the fryer. They were grainy, stiff, and tasted of cold potato. I could have gone to another location and gotten an order that would maybe have been hot, but why should I have to do that?
(19) In-N-Out = Last Place. Blogger note: Again I refer to #11 Chick Fil-A bigot fries should be last on principle.
And bringing up the rear is In-N-Out. Before you tell me there’s a way to “hack” these fries, or somehow make them better, either by loading them with American cheese and secret sauce, or by ordering them well-done, I will grant this: It certainly doesn’t make the fries any worse. Just as dumping the fries into a dirt pile on the shoulder of a highway access road and running over that pile with my car would also probably not make the fries any worse.
Why can’t In-N-Out make better fries? The answer is that they likely could, but don’t need to, because we're in love with dreamy California car culture, palm trees and red-and-white tiles, and romantic sense-memory associated with their overrated burger. I am a thousand percent guilty of this, and have posted more than one Instagram Double-Double thirst trap in full knowledge that, barring a road trip, there’s little culinary excuse for hitting up an In-N-Out.
In-N-Out is always crazy busy so the fries are fresh, at the very least. But they’re also bland, crumbly little matchsticks that aren’t improved by any amount of ketchup, salt, cheese, or salad dressing you want to add to them.