On August 1 the new GFS model was predicting a Category 3 Hurricane Chantal to be located off the coast of Daytona Beach, Florida 13 days later on August 14, 2019. Weather geeks often refer to this as "model porn" because it is quite unreliable out 13 days but it gets a lot of people really excited. There are many potential paths for a projected Hurricane Chantal but the most likely path is for the storm to recurve out to sea. So don't get too excited yet.
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By August 3 the new GFS was no longer predicting even a tropical depression anywhere in the Atlantic basin for August 14, 2019. Future Chantal was but a memory.
Forget About Any Tropical Storms For the Foreseeable Future
The new GFS is currently predicting nothing in the Atlantic basin as far out as August 19, 2019. Of course that forecast could change but more than likely there will be no activity until late August, at the earliest.
Since 1969, meteorologists have used the Saffir-Simpson scale to categorize Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones, in particular Atlantic hurricanes, which arise during late summer and fall. Storms are placed in one of five categories, determined by the maximum speed of their sustained winds. The depression in central air pressure, ocean surge height and extent of damage when they make landfall generally scale with wind speed and hurricane category.
Two tropical waves are currently moving across the Atlantic as we move toward the heart of Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.
One of the two disturbances has a 10% chance of development, but the more distant wave—currently centered 1,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles—is showing tendencies that might elicit concern and has a much higher chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane.
The next name on the list is "Chantal."
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The area of disturbed weather stretching across Cuba and the Bahamas is forecast to move northwestward and then northward, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida during the next few days. Conditions might become marginally conducive for development over the weekend while the system turns and accelerates NW off the US coast but the National Hurricane Center only gives this system a 10% chance of development.
There are many days before the more organized disturbance will reach Florida, if it ever does.
The second system, a broad low pressure area located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system (possible future Chantal) is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves WNW at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Conditions are forecast to become favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week, several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
As seen in this IR satellite view early on August 1, 2019, the future Chantal, should she develop, is still half a world away from Florida. Plenty of time to watch and wait.
Changes in the position of the Bermuda High—a persistent atmospheric high-pressure system in the North Atlantic—might account for changes in hurricane activity over time. Today, the Bermuda High directs tropical storms from off of West Africa, where they originate, toward the East Coast of the United States (top). Thus hurricanes strike the Gulf Coast relatively infrequently. But during the interval between 3,800 and 1,000 years ago, this high-pressure system may have been position more to the southwest, leading storms to strike the Gulf Coast more often (bottom).
Today, how strong the Bermuda high is next week, will determine how far west potential tropical storm Chantal tracks.
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