Hurricane Hermine was pretty much a non-event for us on the east side of the Florida peninsula even though this image would suggest that it was wicked weather across Florida. The west coast from Sarasota northward suffered the brunt of this storm while we only got some sporadic rain showers and breezy weather on the east coast.
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Radar imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation of Hermine has become elongated from east-northeast to west-southwest over the past few hours. This is likely in response to the tropical cyclone encroaching on a developing frontal boundary that extends from eastern North Carolina eastward into the Atlantic. However, buoy reports from the Atlantic southeast of the center remain in the 40-45 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
Rainy Labor Day from Central Florida to Provincetown
Up to 20 inches of rain are forecast to fall just offshore of the mid-Atlantic in the next 5 days while in the wake of the storm Central Florida is forecast to receive an additional 2-4" of rainfall.
Confounding Storm about to Undergo Complex Transformation
During the forecast period, Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a mid- to upper-level baroclinic trough that is developing over the eastern United States. During the first 36-48 hours, the cyclone is likely to start extratropical transition as it tries to merge with the frontal boundary. From 48-96 hours, the dynamical computer forecast models forecast the upper trough to cut off directly over the surface cyclone, and as this happens they forecast the surface cyclone to acquire a structure that resembles a tropical cyclone with the strongest winds close to the center. This suggests the possibility that Hermine could regain some tropical cyclone characteristics even though it would be under the upper-level low (normally tropical systems reside underneath an upper-level high). For all of this complexity, the dynamical guidance forecast Hermine to strengthen during this evolution regardless of its final structure, so the new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast. Given the uncertainty in the structure and evolution, the forecast keeps the cyclone as post-tropical after 24 hours.
Needless to say the computer forecast models are a little confused about where this system might end up, but the consensus is it will linger offshore of the Mid-Atlantic for days.
See the latest forecast tracks at Mike's http://spaghettimodels.com
The initial motion is 055/19 as Hermine is now embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the above mentioned baroclinic trough. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should decelerate and gradually turn more toward the north. The dynamical models agree that the surface center should make at least a partial cyclonic loop from 48-96 hours as it moves under the upper-level low. After 96 hours, there is spread in the guidance, as the GFS shows a very slow motion while the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET move the system somewhat faster toward the east-northeast. The new forecast track shows a little more bend back toward the west than the previous track, then it is a little slower to move the system to the east-northeast later in the period. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF both bring the center of Hermine closer to the coast than the current forecast, and if this trend continues it may require some adjustment to the track in later advisories.
KEY MESSAGES ABOUT
HURRICANE HERMINE
1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still producing hazardous winds and storm surge over the mid-Atlantic. NWS policy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system continues to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked for Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to land.
2. There is considerable uncertainty as to how many of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone Hermine will have while it is off of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England States. Regardless of its structure, Hermine is expected to be a vigorous storm with a large wind field that will cause wind, storm surge and surf hazards along the coast.
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The current forecast is for at least Tropical Storm conditions for the next 4 days (until Wednesday, September 7, 2016 for Cape May and points northward including all of Long Island as the Hurricane stalls and gains strength just off shore. Cape May is located at about 39° N, 75° W while the storm's center is forecast to be at about the same latitude and only slightly east at 73° W. Tropical storms rotate in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere which will mean days of winds and rains along hundreds of miles of shoreline from Provincetown all the way south to Virginia Beach.
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