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Florida Is Sinking

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Florida is Sinking and Only One Presidential Candidate Believes that Climate Change is Real
click on the graphic above for a larger view
Trump's Climate Science Denial 
Clashes with Reality of 
Rising Seas in Florida
By Donald Trump’s account, scientists have tricked Americans into accepting that global warming is caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

“I’m not a big believer in man-made climate change,” he told the Miami Herald on one of the rare recent occasions when he has talked about it.

Meanwhile, Miami is among the world's most vulnerable cities to climate change and a few blocks from the Miami Beach hotel where Trump spoke, water flooded over a seawall last year during the highest autumn tides, blocking traffic on one of South Florida’s main evacuation routes. The city is now elevating that street and many others as part of a $500-million program to protect itself from the rising ocean.
Coastal communities in the biggest presidential battleground state are adapting not just to the threat of global warming, but to the reality of it.

Trump’s rejection of climate science portends one of the most consequential changes in direction for the nation should he win the presidency.  And Floridians are starting to reconsider that possibility as Trump's temporary momentum in polls slides as Florida voters are reminded that (as the Huffington Post so eloquently puts it) "Donald Trump regularly incites political violence, is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims—1.6 billion members of an entire religion—from entering the U.S." and build a wall on the entire continental border with Mexico.
The Republican nominee wants to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate pact, a nearly worldwide agreement to reduce the carbon emissions that cause global warming.

He has called for scrapping Obama administration rules that cut carbon pollution from coal-fired power plants. He plans to lift constraints on oil, gas and coal production, saying trillions of dollars in economic activity will follow.

President Obama, whose legislative agenda on climate change was thwarted by Republicans in Congress, pushed the boundaries of executive power to fight global warming, leaving his successor ample room to reverse course.

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Like Obama, Trump’s Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, regards global warming as an urgent threat. She has released plans to reduce carbon emissions, promote renewable energy and assist coal regions in recovering from the economic devastation brought on by the industry’s decline.

His position puts him at odds with top energy companies. Exxon, Chevron, Shelland BPall acknowledge that burning of fossil fuels causes global warming. They encourage reduction of carbon emissions.

“Donald Trump lives in a parallel universe where the facts established by the scientific community to him don’t exist,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Climate Change Communication program at Yale University.

“The fact is that climate change is here and now. It’s not some faraway, distant problem that we’re not going to see for a generation or two.”


Carbon pollution has caused record-high temperatures globally in each of the first six months of 2016, according to NASA. Last year was the planet’s warmest on record.

With Florida, Georgia, Virginia and other coastal states beset by more and more high-tide flooding as the sea level rises, Trump has been muting his argument that climate change is not really happening. A shrinking minority of Americans, mainly conservative Republicans, share his opinion, polls show.

The impact is especially notable here, in the densely populated and nearly flat Miami region, which is built mostly on drained swamps.

Over the last decade, streets in low-lying neighborhoods have begun flooding during the highest tides, usually when the moon is full around the fall equinox. The storm drain system, built on the assumption that gravity will carry water downward into Biscayne Bay, can’t function when the tide rises above street level.


Trump was on the other side of Miami Beach at the oceanfront Fontainebleau Hotel last month when he spoke with the Miami Herald. He acknowledged that climate does change, but not as a result of human activity.

Asked about local efforts to cope with the rising sea level, Trump said, “If they’re doing the roads, and if they want to make them higher, I think that’s probably not the worst thing I’ve ever heard, if you’re going to do them anyway.”

Miami-Dade and three nearby counties have joined forces in a climate change compact. Using the 1992 local sea level as its benchmark, the group projects that it will rise 6 to 10 inches by 2030, and 31 to 61 inches by 2100. Scientists expect the pace to quicken as the melting of polar ice accelerates.
The rising ocean — it’s already 3 inches higher than it was in 1992 — has begun pushing saltwater into the shallow layer of highly porous limestone that contains the region’s groundwater. Some contaminated drinking wells are being replaced.

Alarmed by the threat to Florida’s giant tourism industry, Miami business leaders have championed the public works overhaul.

Trump, who owns several resorts in South Florida, has taken contradictory stands on climate change. In 2009, as world leaders gathered in Copenhagen for talks on a global climate pact, he joined other business leaders in signing an open letter to Obama and Congress.

Published as a full-page ad in the New York Times, it called for “meaningful and effective measures to control climate change” and warned of “catastrophic and irreversible consequences for humanity and our planet” if they failed to act fast.

Trump also endorsed the science of global warming in his May 2016 application for a permit to build a seawall at his golf resort in County Clare, Ireland, saying it was threatened by rising seas (see below).

But from 2011 to 2014, Trump made at least two dozen comments on Twitter mocking global warming, a theme he occasionally reprises in his campaign for president.

“We can’t destroy the competitiveness of our factories in order to prepare for nonexistent global warming,” he tweeted in November 2012. “China is thrilled with us!”

The next day, he said the Chinese created the concept of global warming as a ploy to snatch U.S. manufacturing jobs. (Just a joke, he said years later.)

“I’m in Los Angeles and it’s freezing,” Trump wrote in 2013. “Global warming is a total, and very expensive, hoax!” Weeks later, he called it “a total con job.”

Trump’s commentary soon turned profane. In January 2014, he tweeted: “This very expensive GLOBAL WARMING bullshit has got to stop.”

A version of this post appeared in the Los Angeles Times on September 18, 2016 by Michael Finnegan titled "Trump's climate science denial clashes with reality of rising seas in Florida"

We've Read:

Mr. Trump applied for a permit to build a seawall for one of his golf courses in Ireland.  The application specifically cites global warming as a reason the seawall is needed.  But on the Presidential campaign trail Mr. Trump publicly says he does not believe in climate change and calls it a "hoax." Also:  Earth, Wind, & Liar:  Trump's Global Warming Lies


Reps. Curbelo and Ros-Lentinen have joined bipartisan caucus to deal with global warming.  Miami is among the world's most vulnerable cities.  Meanwhile Marco Rubio and Donald Trump both voice skepticism about climate change.
Coffins unearthed by early summer 2016 floods in Denhan Springs, Louisiana.
Photo © 2016 William Widmer for The New York Times
Catastrophe is the mother of invention, a lesson few other states have had to learn quite as harshly as Louisiana (take note Floridians).  With an ever-sinking coast and a front-line position for the fiercer hurricanes and other weather threats related to climate change, the state has begun to advertise itself as a disaster laboratory, a place to figure out how to combat storm surge or how to resettle imperiled communities—or how to keep track of the dead.
Centuries ago, a vast tidewater glacier covered all of Glacier Bay.  By 1750 that ice began to retreat.  Over the past 260 years it has withdrawn nearly 60 miles to the head of the bay.




Weekend in New England

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 The Spectacular Casco Bay, Portland, Maine

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 The Ram Island Ledge Lighthouse
Ram Island Ledge is a jagged finger of rock one-quarter mile long, marking the northern entrance into Portland Maine’s outer harbor. The ledge runs southwest off nearby Ram Island, and has long been one of the most feared spots by local mariners.

The first navigational aid marking the site was an iron spindle placed at the southern edge of the ledge in 1855, although it was only of practical use during daylight. In 1873 a fifty-foot-tall wooden tripod replaced the spindle. This was a definite improvement, but the force of the open ocean frequently assaulted the exposed structure, and it was washed away at least three times.

On the evening of February 24, 1900, the 440-foot steamer Californian left Portland just before midnight in a brisk southeast wind and splatters of rain. Less than an hour later, the ship, bound for Liverpool, England, was hard aground on Ram Island Ledge. Captain John France had let his vessel drift slightly off course, and before he discovered his error, the ship hit the reef straight on, scraping forward and coming to rest in a small hollow in the reef.

Fortunately, the twenty-one passengers and crew were all safely rescued, and the ship’s cargo was also unloaded. The ship remained stranded on the reef for six weeks before it was finally pulled free. The hull was badly damaged, but it was patched up, and after repairs in Boston, the steamer returned to service.
Photograph courtesy U.S. Coast Guard

This high-profile near-disaster focused public attention on the hazard posed by the reef. The next year, the inspector and engineer of the First Lighthouse District, after noting the increase in the grain trade from approximately one million bushels in 1895-1896 to over 14 million bushels in 1900-1901, included the following paragraphs in a report to the Lighthouse Board recommending an additional navigational aid to assist vessels calling at Portland.

[The vessels’] course leads them between Ram Island Ledge and Jordans Reef which are three-quarters of a mile apart. But Witch Rock, upon which there are only four fathoms at mean low water, stands about 1,000 yards directly in front of this passage, in the middle of the fairway and in the track of these deep draft ships, to which it is a grave peril; for they cannot take a safe berth from it on either hand without danger from Jordans Reef on the one side or Ram Island Ledge on the other.

Considering the excellence of this port, the class of ships engaged in its growing commerce, and their great peril from these three ledges, in an otherwise excellent fairway, we recommend that a light and fog-signal be established on Ram Island Ledge, to guide ships in safely between Witch Rock and Ram Island Ledge.

A Congressional Act of June 28, 1902, authorized the construction of a lighthouse and fog signal on Ram Island Ledge at a total cost of $166,000 and appropriated an initial $83,000 for the project. Work was delayed until the following spring, as plans had to be prepared and accessing the rocks that were under water two-thirds of the time would have been almost impossible during the winter. In the meantime, more ships were lost on the reef. On September 22, 1902, the British three-masted schooner Glenrosa wedged itself on the rocks after its captain was misled by the sound of the foghorn at Portland Head Light into thinking his ship was steering down the middle of the channel. The crew was able to stay aboard for the night and row to shore at daybreak, but the ship was a total loss. Less than three months later, the schooner Cora & Lillian suffered a similar fate.

Title to the ledge was obtained on March 10, 1903 through the payment of $500 to two Cape Elizabeth families, and later that month a $33,679 contract had been signed with the Bodwell Granite Company of Rockland to supply the granite stones for the lighthouse from its quarry on Vinalhaven. The plans for the lighthouse called for a granite tower twenty-eight feet in diameter at the base, seventy feet in height to the surface of the lantern deck, and consisting of 699 blocks set in thirty-five courses.
Photo:  © 2007 JSfouche
Work at the site finally began on May 1 of 1903, when the foundation rock was leveled and cut down to three feet above mean low water. A staunch timber bulkhead, one hundred feet in length, was bolted to the ledge seaward of the site to offer some protection for the workmen. The first stones, weighing nearly four tons each, were landed on the ledge and set on July 9. Work continued until September 30, when sixteen courses had been finished and two cisterns constructed inside the base of the tower.

Work on site resumed in April of 1904 and the last course of stone was in place by July. The tower, which was lined with enameled bricks, received its thirteen-ton, sixteen-foot-tall lantern room that fall after it had arrived in Portland via rail from Atlanta, where it had been fabricated. Weather and supply problems delayed the completion of the lighthouse, and it wasn’t until April 10, 1905 that the third-order Fresnel lens, imported from Paris, France, was finally lit for the first time.

During the spring and summer of 1905, an iron landing pier, not included in the original plans for the lighthouse, was built adjacent to the tower to facilitate the landing of men and supplies during rough weather. Constructed using surplus funds, the pier stood eighteen feet high and measured seventy feet long and twenty feet wide. An oil house and fog bell were also added to the lighthouse during 1905.

William C. Tapley was appointed the first head keeper of Ram Island Ledge Lighthouse and held the position until 1929. During his tenure the lobster fishermen of Casco Bay petitioned the Bureau of Lighthouses to prohibit keepers from engaging in the lobster business. The fishermen felt the keepers had an unfair advantage as they lived right on the fishing grounds and could haul their traps during brief lulls in the weather, when it wasn’t possible for regular fishermen to visit their traps. Inspector Jno. McDonald investigated the claims and found the fishermen were making far more money than any lighthouse keeper. In response to an inquiry into the matter by the inspector, Keeper Tapley wrote: “I have never owned or hauled a lobster trap, I have not time and do not care to fish. My time is occupied in and around my station, and I prefer to be a light-house keeper rather than a fisherman. The two occupations do not go well together.” Officially, lighthouse keepers were permitted to haul lobster traps as long as it didn’t interfere with their work at the station.

In late 1958, an underwater power cable was laid between Portland Head and Ram Island Ledge, allowing the lighthouse to be automated. The last resident Coast Guard personnel were removed from the station on January 14, 1959. The beacon was converted to solar power in 2001, and in October of 2005, care of the lighthouse was licensed to the American Lighthouse Foundation. The original third-order Fresnel lens has been replaced by a modern 300mm optic, showing two white flashes every six seconds, while an automatic foghorn blasts once every ten seconds when needed.
Crescent Beach State Park, on Cape Elizabeth, Maine

A Notice of Availability, dated September 2008, announced that Ram Island Ledge Lighthouse was excess to the needs of the United States Coast Guard and would be "made available at no cost to eligible entities defined as Federal agencies, state and local agencies, non-profit corporations, educational agencies, or community development organizations for educational, park, recreational, cultural or historic preservation purposes." After no acceptable applications were received, the lighthouse was placed on the auction site of the General Services Administration on June 30, 2010. The first bid was received a few days later, but the bidding did not heat up until the property entered the "soft closure" period in early September, when a new bid had to be received each day in order to extend the auction.

Wanting to keep the lighthouse in Maine hands, Bob Muller, a Brunswick businessman with a background in IT and high-tech image mapping, launched a website to attract a few thousand prospective "owners," who were willing to pay $49 for a stake in the lighthouse. The bidding, however, soon eclipsed the amount of money Muller was able to pool, and it seemed the auction would come down to a battle between Portland real estate developer Arthur Girard and Dr. Jeffrey Florman, a neurosurgeon from Windham. Through their bids, these two men elevated the price of the lighthouse by over $100,000. On Friday, September 10, the two men flipped a coin to determine which of them would remain in the auction and likely become the owner of the lighthouse. 

After winning the coin toss, Florman submitted a bid of $180,000 to top Girard's last bid, but other parties, who had yet to bid on the property, were still lurking. On September 13, a bidder with the interesting codename of "arakiran" offered $185,000 for the lighthouse, and the following morning "redtide" submitted a bid of $190,000 just minutes before 9 a.m. Had the bid come in after 9 a.m., the auction would have been extended another day, but as no other bids were received between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. EST on September 14, "redtide" won the auction. Turns out "redtide" was another codename for Florman, who had been submitting previous bids as "MAINE."

Florman is not a lighthouse buff and does not own a boat, but rather purchased the lighthouse out of a simple desire to preserve a historic property. No commercial use of the lighthouse is planned.
An old church on Cape Elizabeth.  Most of the tombs were members of the Jordan family.

Above: Queen Anne's Lace (Daucus carota) on a rocky ledge overlooking the Calendar Islands in Casco Bay. Queen Anne's Lace is a wild carrot in the carrot family (Apiaceae), and thus cold tolerant enough to withstand a few more weeks of freezing weather. The islands of the Bay are so-named because it was first reported in 1700 by Colonel Wolfgang William Römer, an English military engineer, that there were "as many islands in the Bay as there are days in the year."
Tall stands of Poison Sumac (Toxicodendron vernix) near the bay have already lost many of their leaves though peak foliage will not be for weeks.

Check out the Maine Foliage Page for updates on when and where to find the best Fall Color.
Two Lights State Park, Cape Elizabeth
The parks name originated from the twin lighthouses located nearby at the end of Two Lights Road.  Build in 1828, these were the first twin lighthouses on the coast of Maine.
Many shipwrecks occurred along the rocky coast of Maine, some, like the Annie C. Maguire are memorialized (above) and a very old photo of the wreck (below), with the Portland Head Light very nearby.

Bug Light Park on the Portland Breakwater
Bug Light Park, the eastern terminus of the Greenbelt Walkway, offers expansive views of Portland Harbor and the skyline of Maine’s largest city. The nearly 9 acre park was the site of major shipbuilding activity during WWII. An estimated 30,000 people were employed here from 1941-1945 building liberty ships for the New England Shipbuilding Corp. and the South Portland Shipbuilding Corp. Although far less bustling today, Bug Light Park is a popular destination for picnicking, boating and kite flying. A busy boat launching area and a liberty ship memorial are at opposite ends of the park. In between is a paved walkway along the shore and out to Bug Light itself.

Portland Breakwater Lighthouse was built in 1875 and is one of Maine's most elegant lighthouses. Though modeled on an ancient Greek monument, it was built with plates of cast iron. It was dubbed "Bug Light" due to its small size.

The South Portland Historical Society and Museum can be found near the entrance to Bug Light Park.

Portland Head Light
and 
Fort Williams Park
Cape Elizabeth is the home of Portland Head Light, one of New England's most iconic structures. Situated along the spectacular shores of Fort Williams Park, at 1000 Shore Road, the popular landmark is owned and managed by the Town of Cape Elizabeth, Maine. The Park is open year round from sunrise to sunset.  Here I stitched together 52 images to make this one panoramic portrait of the lighthouse on a very cool and calm day.
I don't know the provenance of this image found on pintrest but it pictures the lighthouse more how we often see it, with angry waves and lots of snow.
Next Stop.  Bar Harbor.  Here I'm holding the sunset on Bar Island, unaware that the tide is about to come rushing back in.  Ooops.  Always check those tide notices before you go hiking out onto any of Maine's nearshore "islands."


We've Read:
Follow the evolution of these fascinating butterflies on this site.

Thomas Iser
Painter-Performer-Photographer
OK.  We're not really sure what Mr. Iser does, it looks like performance art,
but he is pretty entertaining doing it.  See more photos below from his instagram feed.







Fall Begins 
Thursday September 22, 2016:
5 Questions and Answers about the autumnal equinox

Summer heat has overstayed its welcome for many in September. But if you’re looking forward to cooler weather, Thursday’s autumnal equinox is a reminder that fall is finally on our doorstep.

The 2016 fall equinox arrives Sept. 22 at 10:21 a.m. Eastern. What happens on the equinox — and why are day and night not quite equal? Check out these five questions (and answers) to learn more.

1. What happens on the equinox?

Like the spring equinox in March, the autumnal equinox marks an astronomical turning point of the seasons.

Since the Earth is tilted on its axis of rotation by 23.5 degrees, the Northern and Southern hemispheres receive different amounts of amounts of sunlight throughout the year. On the equinox, however, the orbital plane of the equator becomes geometrically aligned with the center of the sun so that neither hemisphere is tilted away or toward the sun (visualize Earth’s axis going into the screen in the image below):

From our Earthbound perspective, the sun appears directly overhead along the equator, and day and night are roughly equal in length (emphasis added — see No. 4).



2. Where does the sun rise and set on the equinox?

The fall equinox is one of only two days each year when all points on Earth — apart from the polar regions — see the sun rise due east and set due west along the horizon. Until the winter solstice in December, the sun continues to rise and set farther to the south.

As the sun takes a shorter, lower path across the sky, we experience more darkness than daylight, and cooler temperatures as a result.

3. How fast are we losing daylight around the equinox?

Rapidly! Though the days have steadily been getting shorter since the summer solstice, the earlier arrival of dusk becomes especially noticeable by September. That’s because the Northern Hemisphere loses daylight at its fastest pace around the September equinox. The District loses 2 minutes and 30 seconds of daylight each day, while cities across the northern tier lose close to three minutes or more.

The rate of daylight change depends on your latitude, or distance from the equator. In Miami — located just north of the tropics — daylight dwindles by only 90 seconds a day. At the opposite extreme lies Fairbanks, Alaska. Located just 200 miles south of the Arctic Circle, residents there see nearly 7 minutes of daylight loss around the September equinox — not exactly uplifting!

4. Why are there more than 12 hours of daylight on the equinox?

Though equinox means “equal night” in Latin, both of Earth’s hemispheres get slightly more than 12 hours of daylight on the equinox. In the District sunrise on the fall equinox is at 6:56 a.m. and sunset at 7:04 p.m., bringing a total of 12 hours and 8 minutes of daylight.

There are two reasons for this. One is atmospheric refraction. This optical phenomenon bends the sun’s light as it passes through Earth’s atmosphere and causes the sun to appear slightly higher in the sky than it actually is.
The other is how we define sunrise and sunset. The sun appears as a disk, not a single point. Sunrise is defined as the moment the sun’s upper edge appears on the horizon, while sunset doesn’t occur until the sun’s upper edge disappears from the horizon. Together, these factors add about 10 minutes of daylight to the equinox, depending on one’s distance from the equator.

The map below — by Alaska-based meteorologist Brian Brettschneider — shows when we can expect equal daylight and darkness. In most of the lower 48, the exact 12-hour day occurs three or four days after the fall equinox.
5. Why does it get dark so quickly around the equinox?

We observe the sun setting much earlier as September progresses, but what about how quickly it gets dark? If you’re an astute observer, you may have noticed that daytime transitions to night a bit faster than it did a month or two ago. Indeed, the fastest sunsets of the year occur around the two equinoxes.


This happens because the sun crosses the horizon at a slightly steeper angle than it does on the solstices. As a result, we see the sun appear and disappear from the horizon more quickly. The difference is almost imperceptible closer to the equator, but is much more pronounced at higher latitudes, such as the cities across the northern tier, Canada and Alaska:




Notice that at all times of year, twilight lasts longer the greater your distance from the equator (compare Seattle vs. Miami, for example). Yet each location sees faster sunsets — and shorter twilights — around the spring and fall equinox. In March, we usually don’t notice the shorter twilight because the days are already getting longer. In September, on the other hand, we are more likely to observe not just how much earlier it gets dark, but also how quickly nighttime falls.

As we plunge into the darker months of the year, it’s won’t be long before temperatures fall as well. So if you’re ready for crisp mornings, pumpkins and hot cider, the fall equinox is a day to celebrate.
It should not be hard to 
Defeat Rubio nor Save Medicare,
but to do both Floridians need to 
Vote Democrat in November!


Will Hurricane Matthew Big "The Big One?"

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Early morning Tuesday, September 27, 2016, the storm is massive as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.  End to end Matthew stretches across at least 500 miles of open ocean.

A tropical wave located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa on Monday morning, September 26, 2016, was headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and has the potential to become a dangerous storm in the Caribbean later this week. The National Hurricane Center is calling this storm Invest 97L for now, but when it reaches tropical storm strength it will receive the name "Matthew."

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After looking unimpressive on satellite loops for the previous few days, 97L was turning that situation around on Monday. The system had a large circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere, with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Some low-level spiral bands were beginning to develop, and upper-level outflow was becoming established to 97L’s north. The storm’s organization was being aided by low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, a very moist atmosphere (relative humidities at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 75%) and warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°F). Significant negatives for development included the storm’s forward speed of 15 - 20 mph, which was too fast for the storm to get itself vertically aligned, plus 97L’s nearness to the equator. The system was centered near 8°N, which was too far south to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire much spin.

Forecast for 97L
Invest 97L will continue west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Tuesday, September 27, reaching a latitude of about 12°N. This is far enough away from the equator to give 97L an extra boost of spin that may allow it to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. With the SHIPS model predicting wind shear remaining low, mid-level moisture staying high at 70 - 75%, SSTs remaining a very warm 29°C (84°F), and 97L slowing its forward speed to about 15 mph, conditions will be ripe on Tuesday for 97L to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. By Tuesday night, the outer spiral bands of 97L will begin spreading over the Lesser Antilles, bringing high winds and heavy rains. The core of the storm will pass through the islands on Wednesday afternoon. 

Invest 97L may pass very close to the coast of South America, which would interfere with development. In addition, the southeastern Caribbean is a well-known tropical cyclone graveyard, where scores of healthy-looking storms have died or suffered severe degradation. This is primarily due to the fact that the southeastern Caribbean is a place where the surface trade winds tend to accelerate, due to the geography and meteorology of the area. A region of accelerating flow at the surface means that air must come from above to replace the air that is being sucked away at the surface. Sinking air from above warms and dries as it descends, creating high pressure and conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclones.

Computer forecast model support for development of 97L continues to remain high. The top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Sunday runs that 97L would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between Monday and Wednesday. About 70% of the 20 forecasts from the members of the 00Z Sunday GFS ensemble showed development into a tropical storm, with 40% predicting a hurricane. The European model ensemble was less aggressive developing the storm, probably because of a predicted track too close to the coast of South America—about 40% of its 50 ensemble members predicted a tropical storm in the Caribbean, with 30% predicting a hurricane. In their 2 pm EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 90%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into the storm on Tuesday afternoon.
Will Matthew Threaten the USA?
Forecasts of what might happen to 97L beyond five days from now are hypothetical, at best. For for the sake of a little sensationalistic speculation these are some of the factors that might influence where Matthew will head next, but it should be noted that all of the reliable computer forecast models are forecasting a significant storm the first week of October, 2016:

A large upper-level low pressure system is expected to form over the Mid-Atlantic states late this last week of September, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull 97L more to the northwest by the weekend, according to a majority of the Sunday morning runs of the models. In this scenario, Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida would be at greatest risk for a strike by 97L. According to the Sunday morning Extended Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service, the models are in substantial disagreement on the evolution of this upper-level low, with the GFS model being judged to have the best handle on it. If this analysis is correct, the long-range forecasts from the GFS model may be better than the European model’s. However, you can throw all these forecasts out the window if 97L ends up consolidating its center at a latitude significantly different from what these models are expecting, or on a day different from what is expected. Making an accurate long-range track forecast from a tropical wave in the process of transitioning into a tropical depression is notoriously difficult.
We've Read:
Trump's Sniffling
Humbling Debate Debacle
Trump did just that, while for most of the debate Clinton was calm, assured, and most importantly, presidential.

What was with Trumps sniffles?  He clearly had a cold or allergies.  He also seemed to be allergic to facts:  Clinton hasn't been fighting ISIS "her entire adult life," as the group was founded in 2004.  ICE could not have endorsed Trump because government agencies don't do that.  His insistence that he led the birther movement to protect President Barack Obama was laughable.  Plus, his proposals really do blow up the deficit, according to independent watchdog groups.  Overall, the GOP nominee failed to reassure the country that he is ready to be president.  
The new Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope, or FAST, in Guizhou Province is roughly twice as sensitive as the world's next-biggest single-dish radio telescope.


When hundreds of engineers and builders began clambering up a jagged hill in southwestern China to assemble a giant telescope in a deep, bowl-shaped basin, poor villagers sometimes crept over the sheer slopes to glimpse the country’s latest technological wonder.



“We’ve never seen anything like it, never imagined it,” said one villager, Huang Zhangrong, a sun-gnarled 66-year-old carpenter. “It’s a big circle, a big iron wok.”



The wok is the world’s largest single-dish radio telescope, and it officially began operating on Sunday, accompanied by jubilant national television coverage, after more than five years of construction. The Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope, FAST for short, is intended to project China’s scientific ambitions deep into the universe, bringing back dramatic discoveries and honors likeNobel Prizes.


Maybe even messages from aliens.
Denzel Washington has been a staple of movies for decades. In terms of box-office performance, he’s one of the most impressive actors ever; the films he leads have pulled in an an aggregate $2.2 billion domestically, putting him at No. 29 on the all-time list, according to The Numbers. During his run, Washington has done everything from crime dramas to post-apocalyptic Westerns and has won two Academy Awards in the process. He’s Tom Hanks, if Tom Hanks decided to take risks when picking parts.

This weekend, Washington’s latest movie opens — he’s the lead in “The Magnificent Seven,” Hollywood’s most recent attempt to make Westerns a thing again. Given Denzel Washington’s essential place in the Hollywood pantheon, I wanted to know how to make sense of a career that’s been unfailingly successful since the early 1980s. So I pulled the critics’ score for every film that he’s been in from ratings aggregator Rotten Tomatoes and plotted those against each movie’s domestic box-office draw, according to data from The Numbers.
Anyone who's been to Florida lately will tell you what a lousy job the Republicans are doing controlling the Zika Virus.  Swarms of mosquitoes blanket the state with impunity while Marco (absent senator) Rubio runs for re-election and Governor Rick (I like Drumpf) Scott travels the country stumping for the man hoping to become bigot-in-chief.


How far will the Zika outbreak spread and for how long?

With these guys in charge, even tracking new cases isn't happening.

How are FICO Scores Figured
and What do they Mean?


10 Possible October Surprises

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10 Possible October Surprises 
2016

What is an "October Surprise?"
Any political event orchestrated (or apparently orchestrated) in the month before an election, in the hopes of affecting the outcome of the election.
#1  Hurricane Matthew Slams Into the East Coast USA 
Technically a hurricane doesn't qualify as an "orchestrated event," but we could imagine Donald Trump positing that Hillary was responsible for the natural disaster because of some secret weather machine she and Bill have in the basement in Chappaqua.

That said, in 2012 Barak Obama's response to Superstorm Sandy arguably altered the course of the election.

Somewhere around Friday, October 7, 2016, Hurricane Matthew is currently forecast to slam into the US mainland east coast somewhere between Florida and New England as a strong Category 2 or 3 hurricane.  If it happens as currently predicted this would be as big a October Surprise as Superstorm Sandy.  The next debate would likely be canceled and the government's response to Hurricane Matthew would play into how people vote in the swing states of Florida, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania depending on where the hurricane strikes.  It should be noted, however, that hurricane forecasts are notoriously unreliable 10 days in advance so it is purely speculative that Hurricane Matthew will play a part in the 2016 elections.
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#2  Trumps Taxes are Leaked showing he paid no income taxes for the past decade as he implied during the first debate.  
This seems quite likely at some point either before or after the election.  Before?  It would finally doom his candidacy.  After?  It might get him thrown in jail.
#3  Hillary Clinton announces that when she is elected she will nominate Michelle Obama to be her Secretary of State.
And we couldn't think of a better choice.
#4  Trump drops out of race when his poll numbers tank after it is revealed that he is in the process of once again filing for bankruptcy.
You could put any number of spins on this one.  Trump could be indicted by the New York Attorney General for fraud for his bogus "foundation," he could file for bankruptcy of it could be revealed that he is insolvent, he could just keep spouting his racist, sexist, misogynist, xenophobic rant and his poll numbers could dive on that alone.  Its hard to imagine that half of Americans are as xenophobic as Trump and thus willing to vote for him.
#5  Melania Trump announces that she is separating from Trump because of his impending bankruptcy and an extramarital affair.
Has anyone seen her since the Republican Convention plagiarism debacle?
#6  Russians release doctored emails in a "dezinformatsiya" campaign to try and discredit the Clinton Foundation.
We've already seen this during this election cycle.  It would not be surprising to see more of it.  They are desperate for a Trump presidency.  Have you seen the photos of Trumps daughter paling around with Putin's mistress?  Now you have (see below)
These are recent photos of Ivanka Trump with Wendi Weng (Vladimir Putin's mistress).  The incestuous relationships in this family are sickening.  How is it that middle-American, blue collar workers are enamored of these self-involved, disturbing people?


#7  Game-changing Gaffe.
It's hard to imagine what kind of gaffe would change the trajectory of the race, because there have been so many already.  Trump's sniveling first debate performance was pitiful, but new polls won't be out until around the first of October so we won't know until then what affect they've had on the trajectory of the race.
#8  Wikileaks
On September 13, Wikileaks and its founder Julian Assange released 100,000 new documents from hacking the Democratic National Committee.  Assange had previously promised to release more information damaging to Clinton and it is unclear if this is it, or if he has more relating to the Clinton Foundation or her State Department tenure.
#9  Mosul, Iraq Falls and ISIS is Vanquished From Iraq.
A spectacular military victory would certainly be beneficial to Democrats.

#10  No Surprise at all.
The Realization that there is no such Thing as An October Surprise in Politics.
The notion that a presidential campaign can be altered in its final stage by a new event—the October surprise—is likely fantasy.  When voters actually go to cast their vote they will know who they cannot possibly vote for, and we'll all live to see the first female President of the United States.
#11  Hillary Clinton is Revealed to be a Dragon Tamer 
OK.  We couldn't resist one more.  Hillary has her dragons take out Trump once and for all, ridding America of the menace of the miserable Trump family forever.  Cher and Barbara sing a duet at Hillary's inauguration.  Everyone lives happily ever after.


We're Following:
Sam Kelly
Jerry Raines
Instagram Art Page

"Paying Homage to the Kings"
Daniel Jaems Photograher
Alvaro in Formentera
(the smallest of Spain's Balearic islands in the Mediterranean Sea; near Ibiza).


Hot Pink, Flaming Torch Bromeliad

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The hot-pink, Flaming Torch Bromeliads are in bloom this week.
Enjoy them while you can.  They don't last long.  Of all the bromeliads in the Florida garden this one is perhaps the most dramatic and also the shortest-lived lasting as little as a week before shriveling up and dying for another six months or so.

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 Also known as "Foolproofplant" and by their Latin name (Billbergia pyramidalis) this Florida favorite is not native but has become naturalized as far north as the Ocala National Forest.  It goes unnoticed most of the year until the blooms show up in late March and late September/early October.
 Above:  In the foreground is a dying bloom from last week with a cousin just reaching peak color behind.
 I stop when I see these bromeliads thrown in trash piles and add them to my garden.  They truly are fool proof.  They require virtually zero attention or care and provide these spectacular blooms a couple times a year.
Even this summer, when we had virtually no rain since June, these plants thrived and are doing just as well as if it had rained every day.  The plants are imports from Central America that have adapted to the sometimes harsh climate of Florida.

We Correctly Predicted the  potential October Surprise
of Major Hurricane Matthew
but. . .will he impact the USA later this week?
Whether he does or doesn't he's already made history as the first Category 5 storm in the Atlantic since 2007's Hurricane Felix.

The current forecast of the GFS model (American) shows Matthew skirting the east coast of the USA and eventually slamming into New England somewhere between Long Island and Providence on Saturday, October 9, 2016.

Currently Jamaica, Cuba, The Bahamas and South Florida are in the Cone of Uncertainty for Matthew.  Hurricane forecasts are notoriously unreliable beyond 5 days so we'll not take a victory lap on our predictions until/if he does impact the US mainland and thus the US elections.  

We would suspect that if Matthew is threatening the US mainland on October 8 the next Presidential Debate would be canceled scheduled for October 9 in St. Louis.  The Donald would probably be happy about that.

Matthew is a monster with sustained winds of160 mph


We've Read:

Mr. Trump applied for a permit to build a seawall for one of his golf courses in Ireland.  The application specifically cites global warming as a reason the seawall is needed.  But on the Presidential campaign trail Mr. Trump publicly says he does not believe in climate change and calls it a "hoax." Also:  Earth, Wind, & Liar:  Trump's Global Warming Lies




Reps. Curbelo and Ros-Lentinen have joined bipartisan caucus to deal with global warming.  Miami is among the world's most vulnerable cities.  Meanwhile Marco Rubio and Donald Trump both voice skepticism about climate change.
Coffins unearthed by early summer 2016 floods in Denhan Springs, Louisiana.
Photo © 2016 William Widmer for The New York Times
Catastrophe is the mother of invention, a lesson few other states have had to learn quite as harshly as Louisiana (take note Floridians).  With an ever-sinking coast and a front-line position for the fiercer hurricanes and other weather threats related to climate change, the state has begun to advertise itself as a disaster laboratory, a place to figure out how to combat storm surge or how to resettle imperiled communities—or how to keep track of the dead.
Centuries ago, a vast tidewater glacier covered all of Glacier Bay.  By 1750 that ice began to retreat.  Over the past 260 years it has withdrawn nearly 60 miles to the head of the bay.





Globalization and Florida Trees' Extinction

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Phillip, hiking along Crescent Lake in Olympic National Park
early October, 2016
Redbay and Florida Avocado Face Extinction from Laurel Wilt
One of my favorite trees, the Redbay (Persea borbonia) will likely be extinct within a few years due to laurel wilt disease.  After the death of the Florida citrus industry (See:  A Race to Save the Florida Orange by Altering its DNA and Citrus Disease With No Cure is Ravaging Florida Groves) due to Huanglongbing bacteria also referred to as "Citrus Greening" the latest victim of an increasingly connected world is the Florida Redbay.

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The fungus Raffaela lauricola is responsible for killing redbay and other trees in the coastal plains of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. The fungus causes a devastating disease of redbay trees and other laurel species (like Florida Avocado). Extensive mortality of redbay, an attractive evergreen tree common along the coasts of the southeastern United States, has been observed in South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida since 2003. This fungus is extremely virulent. One small point of inoculation is capable of killing a tree.
The fungus is introduced into redbay or other laurel tree species by an exotic ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus, a native to Southeast Asia) as it burrows into trees and lays eggs. The fungus serves as a food source for beetle larvae, moving through the tree's vessels causing a vascular wilt disease. 



Redbay is also the primary host for the larvae of the palamedes swallowtail butterfly. This fungus is also associated with the death of other trees in the laurel family (sassafras, pondberry, and pondspice) and can be deadly to spicebush and avocado. Experts are concerned the wilt will spread to other members of the laurel family, which are common components in forests across the United States and other areas of the Americas.
Redbay trees once fascinated on the hottest days of summer, ejecting droplets of water in a spritzing fashion from their crowns creating a cooling sensation.  Today, the are all dead or dying in Florida.
Burning Florida Citrus Groves Infected with Huanglongbing Bacteria

The Redbay once ranged from North Carolina to Texas.  Today it is virtually gone from the Deep South and dying quickly in Florida.  The first infection was noted in 2002 in a South Carolina tree.

The next victim will be avocado trees in Florida.  With the disease spreading at far greater than the originally estimated 20 miles per year it is only a matter of time before it has reached throughout the range of the redbay tree.

Do not remove dead redbay trees as this only spreads the disease.


UF/IFAS News Releases

UF/IFAS scientists find potential biological control for avocado-ravaging disease (12/2/2014)

Laurel wilt disease not spread by fruit, seeds from infected avocado trees, UF researchers say (9/8/2012

New Disease May Cost Florida's Avocado Industry Millions, UF Experts Warn (1/26/2009)

Publications 

Assessing the Survival of the Redbay Ambrosia Beetle and Laurel Wilt Pathogen in Wood Chips

Citrus Greening (Huanglongbing Bacteria)

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Need We Say More?
Yoho, Banff, Glaicer, and Kootenay National Parks
British Columbia and Alberta, Canada
Thanksgiving comes to Canada a month and a half before USA.  We're thankful for Justin Trudeau, Canadian Prime Minister,Canadian Tire, the Royal Canadian Mint, and of course Ryan Reynoldsand Deadpool.
Eduardo Fedriani and Julián Goméz photographed by Joan Crisol for the Modus Vivendi campaign "Antibacterial Line."

Ghosts of Halloweens Past

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The 10065 Zip Code (Manhattan, Upper East Side) is probably one of the best places in the world to see extravagant Halloween Displays for free.  These are some favorites.
 Falcone Mansion Werewolves
 Addams Family Fifth Avenue Mansion Opposite Jeff Koons
 American Horror Story
 Manhattan Carnegie Hill Townhouse Mansion Crows
 East 92nd Street Caution Tape Mansion
 Above and Below
More of the Falcone Mansion Display, including a hearse and a ghoul on a swing

 Gauntlet of Horrors
 Ghost of the Great Crash
 Creepy Werewolves or Gargoyles?
 Colorful Collection of Ghouls
 Park Avenue Halloween Mansion
 Two-Headed Princess

Hedge-Fund Halloween
Manhattan's Upper East Side
Manhattan's Upper East Side child-friendly aggressiveness is at no point more in evidence than in the days leading up to Oct. 31; we are now in the era of what one Park Avenue exile calls “a hedge-fund Halloween.” By this she means the relatively new tradition among town-house owners, mostly between Fifth Avenue and Lexington Avenue, to appoint the stoops and facades of their buildings as if someone had asked them to enact a 1%-ers nightmare: “Imagine that you’d failed to acquire some of the most expensive real estate on earth. Pretend you lived in Brooklyn instead, and not in Cobble Hill but in Dyker Heights, that distant precinct famous for its polyvinyl snowmen and street-clogging paeans to Christmas.”


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Some people might wonder what extremely wealthy people would do with potential further cuts to the capital gains tax, but these people don’t realize how many hay bales there are in the world, how many glitter pumpkins, mock corpses, enormous fake spiders, moving cobwebs and mechanical skeletons to buy and stage. 
The ivy isn't the only creepy thing hanging off the Lasry family mansion at East 74th Street.  Bloody, severed heads, screaming ghouls, skeletons and SpongeBob decorations have passersby doing double takes at an over-the-top Halloween display that has become a tradition for the family of hedge-fund manager Marc Lasry and his wife, Cathy Lasry, former president of the Eleanor Roosevelt Legacy Committee.
"It's more of a family thing we do to stay together," said Sophie Lasry, 18, one of the couple's five children, about the seven-year family ritual of decking their house for the season.
For several years now, Marc Lasry, the co-founder of Avenue Capital, has decorated the mansion with bloodied bodies hanging from the balcony, skeleton heads, a giant inflatable ghost, swinging bats and a life-size, clothed skeleton affixed to a tree on the sidewalk. One afternoon last week, tourists and children gathered to take pictures of a dancing skeleton beside the front door. It was singing Super Freak.” (Perhaps in the spirit of competition, the hedge fund manager Philip A. Falcone and his wife, Lisa Maria, have lavishly decorated the exterior of their 27,525-square-foot house on East 67th Street even though it is currently a construction site).
In the East 90s, similar expressions of enthusiasm abound and multiply. A town house on 91st Street between Park and Lexington features a giant inflatable coffin from which a vampire pops up every few seconds. On top of the stoop, guarding the front door, is an approximately eight-foot-tall plastic witch. Skeleton heads are submerged in the landscaping. “It has become an annual tradition to judge which of these displays are the most elaborate and which are professionally done,” Philip Gorrivan, the prominent interior designer and a Carnegie Hill parent, explained “There’s always a newcomer every year, a brownstone that has been completely gutted and renovated, and they’re typically the most incredible.”
It should go without saying that on the Upper East Side, where D.I.Y. is to many a foreign acronym, much of what is done in one’s home is done by someone else. In regard to Halloween, as the designer Celerie Kemble put it, “there has to be major credit-card waving and outsourcing; perhaps I’m cynical, but I’m awe-struck and a little frightened.”

As I toured the Upper East Side last week, I came to think of as utterly restrained the homeowner on East 80th Street who limited the fuss simply to 15 gourds and pumpkins.
While we might have expected to find some indignation on the part of the Carnegie Hill Neighbors, that upholder of preservation and enforcer of taste, the association turns out to be an avid supporter. For the second year in a row it will sponsor a party and costume contest, for which East 92nd Street between Madison and Park Avenues, a decorated block, will be closed. Lo van der Valk, president of the association, pointed to the importance of “private enterprise” for this booming culture of Halloween. Let the fogies, the bitter, the barren, the Scrooges flee early in horror to Palm Beach.


Spooky Maine Halloween
There are plenty of places in age-old Maine to find a spooky inspiration for Hallowen displays.  One of my favorites is in old church cemeteries.  The graves nearest the churches are usually the oldest.  Above:  The Spurwink Church in Cape Elizabeth, Maine.  Erected in 1802 this style of architecture is a blend of Federal, Gothic and Greek Revival that was frequently used in the early 19th century.

The church sits on a hill above the Spurwink River, upriver from where the first settlers built their homes.  The church's historic character is enhanced by the beauty of the salt marshes it overlooks.  Had I been at home with my iMac I would have airbrushed out the power lines, which kind of distract from its hot set ready look.  Unfortunately I do not have that capacity on my laptop.
 Above:  One of the oldest gravestones I found in the Spurwink Graveyard has a great inscription.  While badly eroded I believe it reads:  


Frederic W. Jordan, died Apr. 1, 1859, 
Æ. 38 yrs. 8 mos.  
"Happy soul, thy days are ended,
Thy term of probation is run,
Thy footsteps are upon the celestial shore,
And the race of immortals begun.

The inscription is a compilation of 17th century inspirational verses, hymns and poems.  It will make a great addition to my 21st-century Halloween display when I recreate it.
The Annie C. Maguire memorial is on the grounds of the Portland Head Lighthouse.  Annie C. Maguire was a British three-masted barque, sailing from Buenos Aires, on December 24, 1886, when she struck the ledge at Portland Head Light, Cape Elizabeth, Maine. Lighthouse Keeper Joshua Strout, his son, wife, and volunteers rigged an ordinary ladder as a gangplank between the shore and the ledge the ship was heeled against to rescue Captain O'Neil, the ship's master, his wife, two mates and the nine-man crew.  It would be a great Halloween scene, with skeletons on the shipwreck making they way to shore across the heaving ladder.

The Maguire memorial is steps away from the spot where legend says that Henry Wadsworth Longfellow sat and wrote his poem "The Lighthouse."


Sail on, Sail on ye stately ships
And with your floating bridge
the ocean span
Be mine to guard this light
from all eclipse
Be yours to bring man near
unto man.


 Above:  The "Barely Dead Cemetery" near Falmouth, Maine.  I liked how the sun was in the perfect position behind the spooky house to illuminate this shot of an elaborate Halloween display.  My favorite character is the werewolf at bottom left of the image, trying to crawl out of the cemetery.
 Above:  A Halloween Wedding complete with ring-bearing, juvenile zombies, on Highway 9 between Falmouth and Cumberland, Maine.
 Above:  A zombie road crew on a tractor near Cape Elizabeth, Maine.
 Above and Below:  A pumpkin festival in Scarborough, Maine.
The most interesting specimens were the Brodé Galeux D'Eysines, or Peanut-Shell Pumpkins (Cucurbita maxima), in the shot above.  This heirloom's French name translates "embroidered with warts from Eysines," referring to a small town in southwest France.  This heirloom pumpkin's random "peanut" warts bedeck the flesh-colored outer skin.
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Canada's Glaciers

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There are over 3,000 glaciers in Canada's Rocky and Columbia Mountains of Alberta and British Columbia, covering an area of 4,298 km², with an average glacier size of 1.3 km². This means that the majority of glaciers in the interior ranges of western Canada are small and vulnerable to ongoing retreat from climate change due to population explosion and the continued burning of fossil fuels to drive the world's economies.

One of the most famous is the Athabasca Glacier pictured here.  The Athabasca is one of the six principle 'toes' of the Columbia Icefield. The glacier is retreating at a rate of about 5 meters (16 feet) per year and has receded more than 1.4 km (1 mile) and lost over half its volume in the past 125 years.

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The glacier moves down from the icefield at a rate of several centimeters per day.  Due to its close proximity to the Icefields Parkway in Jasper National Park, between the towns of Banff and Jasper, and rather easy accessibility, Athabasca is the most visited glacier in North America.
On this cold, snowy, and windy mid-October day there were few visitors so I got to experience the glacier as it might have appeared in the 19th century, minus the modern lodge and visitor center about a mile away on the Icefield Parkway.
The view from the Icefield Interpretive Centre, closed during the winter 
(mid-October to mid-April)

The Interpretive Center stands across from the glacier.  As recently as the 1980s the glacier reached to the stairs you see in this image.  It has retreated significantly in recent decades.  I didn't see anything all that interpretive in the center.  A gift shop, bathrooms, a restaurant, and upstairs, a lodge.  For $150 Canadian one could board a special bus to be driven to the foot of the glacier.  I decided to hike, instead.
There were many cairns near the glacier.  These piles of rocks are traditionally used to mark trails but in this case I think they were more used for photo ops as there was no visible trail associated with the cairns.

The glacier is approximately 6 km (3.7 miles) long, covers an area of 6km² (2.3 sq. miles), and is between 90 and 300 meters (300-900 feet) thick.
All along the Columbia Icefield there are dazzling mountains in every direction.  It is a outdoorsman's dream and the photography is stunning, if you can decide which way to point your camera.  On every high ridge there is another glacier leaning toward meltwater lakes below.  This is truly the most spectacular mountain range within reasonable reach that I have ever experienced.
For more information check out Parks Canada's Jasper National Park Page dedicated to

I love signs.  Here in the Canadian Rockies all the signs are often in English and French.  This one, at the entrance to Banff National Park on the Trans-Canadian Highway warns of wolves.  Something you don't see everyday, "Attention:  Mise en garde contre les loups"
Alberta is massive at 250,000 square miles (660,000 square kilometers) and with only around 4 million people.  It is, regardless, the most populous of Canada's three prairie provinces.  One can drive for miles and encounter no other human beings.  In the little mountain towns of Banff, Canmore, Drumheller, Jasper, Lake Louise, and Sylvan Lake there are tourists, but nothing like what we experience on any typical day in Florida (with 20 million residents and countless millions of tourists year-round).

A Porcupine Loses its Tongue
Porcupine Glacier loses a massive chunk of ice
 Porcupine Glacier August 25, 2015
Porcupine Glacier August 27, 2016

In late August 2016, a deep rift widened and an iceberg heaved away from the Porcupine Glacier in northern British Columbia. Glaciologist Mauri Pelto, who has been analyzing satellite imagery of glaciers since the 1980s, called it “the biggest calving event in North America” that he has ever seen.

Glaciers constantly change due to natural freezing and thawing processes, and they often calve small icebergs. The breakup at Porcupine is the largest single iceberg (by area) to calve from a North American glacier in recent decades, said Pelto, a professor of environmental science at Nichols College. Columbia Glacier in Alaska accounts for more calved ice by volume.

“It’s quite unusual,” he said. “I haven’t found any one bigger [than Porcupine], though the Yakutat Glacier in Alaska had some pretty big calving events in 2009, 2010.”

The Landsat 8 satellite passed over Porcupine Glacier on August 27, 2016, and observed the large, new iceberg (top). The second image shows the glacier as it appeared to Landsat 8 on August 27, 2015. The false-color images show the landscape in shortwave infrared bands at 30-meter resolution, a view that provides better distinction between ice, snow, and water.

As glacial ice thins, it melts from above and below, becoming more susceptible to rifts; eventually icebergs break off along those cracks. In the case of Porcupine, the iceberg broke off from a floating ice tongue.” Such ice formations float on a small amount of water, lacking the structural support of a grounded terminus tongue, which is held up by the earth and rock on the seafloor or riverbed beneath it.

The iceberg from Porcupine comes from an ice tongue measuring 0.74 square miles (1.2 square kilometers). Tongues of this size typically occur in massive iced-over areas like the Larsen Ice Shelf, but are rare in relatively small Alaskan glaciers.

Unlike smaller chunks that fall into the water, this iceberg likely didn’t make much of a splash when it parted from the glacier, Pelto said. “It would have been more like if you’re pushing off from the shore in a canoe. It didn’t break off and fall in.”

References and Related Reading
AGU Blogosphere—From a Glacier’s Perspective (2016 September 22) Porcupine Glacier, BC 1.2km2 Calving Event Marks Rapid Retreat. Accessed October 8, 2016.

NASA Earth Observatory (2002) Ice Loss in Glacier National Park.

Hurricane Matthew
Power Outages
After grazing Florida and Georgia, Hurricane Matthew plowed into South Carolina southeast of McClellanville as a category 1 storm. Strong winds, falling trees, and storm surge flooding knocked out power in coastal areas of all three states.

From space, the outages were clearly visible. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite captured these three nighttime images of the Atlantic coast. The image on the left was acquired at 3:14 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (07:14 Universal Time) on October 6, 2016; the middle image shows the same area at 3:14 a.m. on October 7; the image on the right was acquired at 2:14 a.m. on October 8.

Notice how many cities and towns on the eastern coast of Florida lost power on October 7. By the next day, power had been restored in some areas.


As of 1:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on October 8, 2016, Florida Power and Light Company reported that 400,000 customers were without power. In Georgia, 272,000 Georgia Power customers were in the dark. South Carolina Gas and Electric had 268,000 customers without power; Duke Energy had an additional 70,000 customers in the dark in South Carolina and 84,000 in North Carolina. The map above is based on data from the power companies. In particular, Flagler County, Florida, and Calhoun County, South Carolina suffered many outages.

We've Read:
Eduardo and Julian by Joan Crisol
 What are they selling?
 One guess. . .
You give up?  Upscale underwear.

Halloween in Chicago

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Happy Halloween

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Walker Stalker Cruise Giveaway
ENTER TO WIN
but do it fast. . .
you've got less than a week to enter
contest ends October 31, 2016
Check out all of our
THE WALKING DEAD 
PORTFOLIOS







and the recent USA Today feature

which featured a some of our photos.

The provenance of all images is embedded in the images and credited in the image file name.  Click on the image for more information or look for watermarks in the corners of images.





















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While we've provided plenty of information over the years on how to find these sites around Atlanta 

See:  
and coming soon from our trip this week to The Walking Dead sets. . .
Picnicking in the Land of the Walking Dead

. . .USA Today decided to get in on the phenomenal popularity of the show and do a spread about "Selfies in the Land of the Walking Dead" to coincide with the beginning of the new season.  They even used a few of our pictures but conspicuously cropped Phillip out of the photos.  To that, we say. . .
ENTER TO WIN
but you better hurry, only a few days remaining in the contest
Don't Forget to Enter to Win a Trip on the Walker Stalker Cruise in 2017, details in the image below taken in the new public restroom in Senoia, Georgia.  Yes, I'm happy to announce there is now somewhere you can relieve yourself for free along Main Street in Senoia.  Click on the image above for a larger view.  The website now reports that in addition to the above celebs that will be on the cruise you can hang with the newest star of The Walking Dead, the rugged Jeffrey Dean Morgan (aka Negan).  No word yet if he'll be reprising his wardrobe from TEXAS RISING while on the cruise however (below).
Halloween Fun 2016

Picnicking in the Land of the Walking Dead

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My favorite place to hang out and relax while exploring the Land of THE WALKING DEAD is on Whitewater Creek at Starr's Mill, located at the intersection of GA 74 and GA 85 about a mile north of Senoia, Georgia, the filming location for THE WALKING DEAD.  

As you can tell from my galleries of THE WALKING DEAD photos this is the spot I always end up for a respite from the crowds.  I've found the best way to get here from Atlanta while avoiding all the strip malls and other crap between is to take I-85 south out of Atlanta to GA 16.  Take 16 east into Senoia and then 85 north to the intersection of 74 and 85.  This way you miss all the traffic, lights, etc.  From this direction (coming in from the south) there is a little church on the NW corner of 74/85.  Drive behind the church and follow the dirt road down into the holler to the mill and park.  There are no signs or anything else to indicate there might be a park in the area.

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Check out all of our
THE WALKING DEAD 
PORTFOLIOS







and the recent USA Today feature
which featured a some of our photos and hints.
The old mill was the site of a number of movies including my favorite, SWEET HOME ALABAMA.  There is a nice park that is never crowded and plenty of things to explore around the mill and mill pond.  

Take 85 the other direction out of Senoia, to the southwest and you'll see plenty of filming locations from Seasons 1-3 of THE WALKING DEAD especially around Haralson, Georgia.  

Standing atop the dam at the millpond looking down Whitewater Creek. There is no "whitewater" currently as the Southeast USA endures yet another extremely hot and dry month as we approach what should be winter.  Barely any water spills over the mill's dam today.
I like this fish-eye shot because it appears to illuminate photons spilling out of the sun.  It was a brilliant sunny late-October day with only a couple of other people in the park.  We spread out and had a great picnic far from the hustle and crowds of tourists trying to catch a glimpse of the stars just a couple miles away in Senoia.
One reason this spot is so deserted is because it is hard to find.  The roads (74 and 85) are much higher and the Mill sits down in a holler.  If you don't know what you're looking for, you pass right by.  The mill now appears on Google Maps since we've been writing about it for the past 7 years.  Your GPS likely won't be much help, however.
The creek is so dry that I was able to walk across it jumping from rock-to-rock.  I was also able to go underneath the mill to photograph the old wheel and stone.  Normally the water would be under the mill.

Below, the park around the Mill is full of tall pines which offer some shade.

 Standing in the middle of the Whitewater Creek, looking back toward our picnic on the banks to the right.
Senoia is a quaint, unspoiled Southern town on weekdays.  Weekends can be a bit hectic with Walker Stalkers everywhere and tour guide look-a-likes of the stars of the show leading crowds to all the various shooting locations around town.
After you tire of The Woodbury Shoppe (the official Walking Dead studio store) where you can buy all manner of Made in China crap including some of the flimsiest and tackiest overpriced t-shirts ever made, there is plenty of other stuff to see if you just walk a few blocks either side of Main Street Senoia.
 A lot of high-priced, what-not shops line Main Street.  There is now a public bathroom underneath the Walking Dead Cafe.  It was clean and tidy.
Below:  Main Street Senoia from The Walking Dead set at the bottom of the hill on Main Street (directly behind the post office).
Below:  The walls of Woodbury-Alexandria-Senoia snake through the north and west sides of the town where you once could catch a glimpse of the stars.  Today there are guards at every street and many streets are blocked off.  Take a telephoto lens if you really want to see the stars and make sure they're filming before you head down.
Click on the image above for larger view.  Expect lots of guards, lots of closed streets and no photos or autographs.
New Filming Locations
Part of Season 7 is being filmed on Jekyll Island, Georgia and on a recent weekend there were no trailers in the lot across the railroad tracks from the Fried Green Tomatoes house (below).  As Alexandria is supposed to be in Virginia we assume that Driftwood Beach on Jekyll Island could be acting as a stand in for the Potomac River?

The Season 7 premier was filmed partly on a lot and partly on Old Griffin Road, Brown Drive, and Old Highway 3.

The last week of October the cast is filming atCarol's Creepy House of Horrors and at the studio for some Hilltop scenes.  Raleigh Studios is located just south of Senoia.
In the gully between the FRIED GREEN TOMATOES House (at the corner of Travis and Bridge Streets, directly across the street from the railroad foot bridge) and the crew trailer village (below) are railroad tracks.  A 6-foot fence with an additional 4-foot green screen has been erected to keep prying eyes out.  The best place to catch a glimpse of stars coming and going is from the parking lot of the post office, which is public property.

Note:  The FRIED GREEN TOMATOES house is known as the Travis-McDaniel House and is unique because of the corner placement of the front door and sidewalk.  Much of the film was shot in Juliette, Georgia.

 Walking around Senoia you'll see plenty of other sites were movies have been filmed.  In particular I'm fond of the old Methodist Church (below) which has appeared in some favorite films.
Close-up of one of the stained glass windows


The Walking Dead Season 7
A Review
The Walking Dead Season 7 premier topped 20.8 million viewers.  That's the biggest thing on TV any way you slice (or bash) the numbers.  Those numbers were up in the low double digits from the ratings for the Season 6 finale.  And they beat the holy f--k out of "Sunday Night Football," the next-biggest thing on TV.  That said, there were some major problems with the Season 7 premier.

We won't be the first to say that THE WALKING DEAD has become more about violence for violence sake than any sort of character-driven drama (what made it so watchable in Seasons 1 and 2).  Season 7 started with an epic bloodbath in which Sgt. Abraham "Red" Ford (Michael Cudlitz) and Glenn (Steven Yeun, above) were . . . eliminated in front of all their friends. . . with a barbed-wire wrapped bat wielded by the psycho "Negan" (Jeffrey Dean Morgan).  It was unnecessarily gory to the point of being unwatchable.  

Negan is poorly overplayed by Morgan who seems to be trying too hard and is too clean with too-white, perfect teeth and perfectly groomed stubble; a cartoon villain. He monologues like a cartoon villain, too, going on and on about how he's in charge. I wanted to know his backstory.  What did he do before the zombie apocalypse?  I imagine he was a canvasser for the Donald Trump campaign.  I kept waiting for him to say "Who's next, let me grab one of these women by the p-ssy!" Yuck.  Negan is just. . . a guy with a bat in charge of an army who loves the sound of his own voice.

There was other bad writing and consistency errors that we could go into but they are overshadowed by the one-dimensional villain and the lines he spouts coupled with the gratuitous violence for no good reason other than to be stomach-churning.  

Other little things didn't make sense.  Why not kill Daryl when he's the one who punched Negan?  Why did Daryl lose his cool like that to begin with?  Even the somewhat touching scene at the end felt a bit melodramatic.  Maggie has no reason to go on alone, and it makes little sense for her to request to do so.

Also, how did the ax get on the roof of the trailer before Rick did?  Maybe Negan tossed it up there, but it sure looked like he tossed it out in to the zombie horde.  whatever the case, this was some weird direction that was confusing.

We'll always be fans of Season 1 and 2. . . and we'll always love Senoia, Georgia where the show is filmed, but from there. . . its been a long, slow slog to Must not see TV for me.

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 6' (184 cm) Aussie James Yates, for Adon Magazine
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Florida Fall Colors: Purple

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A Polka-Dot Wasp Moth (Syntomeida epilais) and a Bumble Bee on Garberia (Garberia heterophylla).  Garberia is an old-growth Florida native shrub that is virtually extinct.  It is so rare that it has no common name.  It is currently on the list of Threatened and Endangered Plants of Florida.

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This low shrub is native to Florida and attains a height of 4 to 8 feet. It is also known as Garberia fruticosa. Garberia has dull grayish, viscid foliage that is quite distinctive. The obovate leaves are alternately arranged on the stems and are held vertically. The showy, late season flowers appear in terminal corymbs of lavender pink heads and are followed by small inconspicuous fruits; the fruits are achenes. Flowers literally cover the plant. Garberia is an attractive plant useful for planting alone as a specimen or in groups for its colorful show in late summer and fall.
Garberia's showy, late season flowers appear in terminal corymbs of lavender pink heads and are followed by small inconspicuous fruits; the fruits are achenes. Flowers literally cover the plant. Garberia is an attractive plant useful for planting alone as a specimen or in groups for its colorful show in late summer and fall.
 The reasons for Garberia's endangered status is that it is native to the sand ridges and hills of central and northeast peninsular Florida.  Most of these ridges have been bulldozed for development.
 We've preserved a stand of these scarce plants at our lake house in east Central Florida and they have come into full bloom despite the harsh summer in which we received less than 1/10th of our normal rainfall.  Unfortunately there are few other stands remaining in our area and as the plant only blooms for a couple weeks in fall it is unlikely that pollination much less seed and offspring will occur.
 There is no impetus for conservation in Florida as the Governor's Office and both houses of the Legislature are controlled by pro-growth Republicans who in large part do not believe in conservation nor the science of climate change.
 The main focus of Florida's government for the past 6 years of Republican control has been economic development and expansion of exurbs at any cost.
 The reality of that expansion is that the things that were so special about Florida are being lost and replaced with concrete, suburbs, and generic corporate crap (strip malls) from the Atlantic to the Gulf and everywhere between.
 A Thread-Waisted Wasp (Ammophila procera) feasting on the fleeting Garberia blooms.
 A little Skipper making a visit to the Garberia plants.




 Below:  Lookalikes, but a completely different plant, Marsh American-Aster (Symphyotrichum elliottii) enjoys a much wider distribution from Louisiana to Virginia and grows well in disturbed ground like ditches, swales, and roadsides.
 Marsh American-Aster grows to 9 feet (3 m) in Florida and are easily recognizable in Fall-Winter by their large clusters of showy blooms
 Below, my index finger for scale.
We've Read:
Visualization of polar vortex invasion of North America in January 2014 (NASA)

Global warming could be making winters in eastern North America even longer, according to new studies.
In an unexpected televised address, Queen Elizabeth II offered to restore British Rule over the United States of America.  Addressing the American people from her office in Buckingham Palace, the Queen said that she was making the offer "in recognition of the desperate situation you now find yourselves in."
Weaver ants have helped humans for hundreds of years by controlling pest insects on crops.
Picnic plunder is just one of their many talents.

Florida's Fountain of Youth

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We had a nice walk around a mostly deserted De Leon Springs State Park recently.  I'm reluctant to share these photos as it might encourage crowds to converge on this largely unspoiled slice of old Florida

The spring is named for Juan Ponce de León, who may have led the first Spanish expedition to Florida in 1513.  Legend says that he was in search of the fountain of youth, and found it here.  Historians might disagree with de León's legacy (see Florida's 500th Birthday Celebration).


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Native Americans visited and used these springs as long as 6,000 years ago.  In the early 1800s, European settlers built sugar and cotton plantations that were sacked by Seminole Indians during the Second Seminole War.  By the 1880s the springs had become a winter resort, and tourists were promised "a fountain of youth impregnated with a deliciously healthy combination of soda and sulphur."
In recent years the park service has put up hand rails and concrete all around the spring and now the water flows out over a sort of waterfall into the Lake Woodruff National Wildlife Refuge and eventually into the St. Johns River.  As you can see there was a fair amount of water flowing.
Below:  Another view of the concrete and footbridges and guardrails that protect people from falling into the river.  All that concrete and aluminum detracts from the natural beauty of the place.
Below:  The water is cool and clear year round.  It remains a constant 73° F (23° C).  The main spring is a convergence of two underground water flows, and produces an average of 17.6 million gallons of water daily (67 million liters).
While it was an ideal day around the deserted spring when we ventured onto the boardwalks to explore some of the 18,000 acres of lakes, creeks and marshes we were bombarded by huge mosquitoes and biting flies.
Juan Ponce de León became the first governor of our close neighbor Puerto Rico by appointment of the Spanish Crown.  Some legend says he led the first European expedition to Florida, which he may have named.

Below:  The Mill and restaurant by a concrete-sided pool around part of the spring.
The legend goes that in search of Florida, on April 2, 1513, de León sighted what he thought was an island.  He named it La Florida in recognition of the verdant landscape and because it was the Easter season, which the Spaniards called Pascua Florida (Festival of Flowers).
The exact location of de León's landing is unknown though some historians say it was at St. Augustine, while others think it was at Ponce de León Inlet south of Daytona Beach and about 30 miles from the spring that bears his name.  de León was also credited with discovering the Gulf Stream.  On April 8, 1513 his armada encountered a current so strong that it pushed them backwards and forced them to seek anchorage.


Click on any image for a larger view



 THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH
According to legend, Ponce de León discovered Florida while searching for the Fountain of Youth.  Though stories of vitality-restoring waters were know on both sides of the Atlantic long before Ponce de León, the story of his searching for them was not attached to him until after his death.  In his Historia General y Natural de las Indias of 1535, Gonzalo Fernández de Oviedo y Valdés wrote that Ponce de León was looking for the waters of Bimini to cure his aging.   A similar account appears in Francisco López de Gómara's Historia General de las Indias of 1551.   Then in 1575, Hernando de Escalante Fontaneda, a shipwreck survivor who had lived with the Native Americans of Florida for 17 years, published his memoir in which he locates the waters in Florida, and says that Ponce de León was supposed to have looked for them there. Though Fontaneda doubted that Ponce de León had really gone to Florida looking for the waters, the account was included in the Historia general de los hechos de los Castellanos of Antonio de Herrera y Tordesillas of 1615. Most historians hold that the search for gold and the expansion of the Spanish Empire were far more imperative than any potential search for the fountain.
 Giant Live Oak Trees (Quercus virginiana) circle the spring and provide shade for those visiting who are not so accustomed to Florida's relentless sunshine and heat.
Centuries-old solitary Sabal Palms (Sabal palmetto) also populate the grounds.  The Sabal Palm is the state tree of Florida. . . perfectly evolved to withstand wind, rain, flood, drought, cold. . . whatever nature can throw at her.
Above:  Looking up through the canopy of the Live Oaks and their mutualistic companions, Spanish Moss (Tillandsia usneoides).
I was surprised by how much water was coming out of the main spring as it hasn't rained in Florida in nearly 6 weeks.  The water is obviously traveling a great distance from perhaps the foothills of the Appalachians.  Despite that, there wasn't enough water to turn the sugar mill wheel.

At the Old Spanish Sugar Mill Restaurant, guests can make their own pancakes at the table.  This was once a popular adventure on weekends.  The mill wheel was not turning this week, only a trickle of water flowed through the sluice to the mill wheel (above).  Perhaps indicative of the extremely dry conditions Florida has experienced for years.
 Above and Below:  A couple of old signs from around the Spring property.  At one time the sign at bottom beckoned travelers from Jacksonville.  Today the nearby highway carries mostly local traffic as the Interstate highways bypassed this old Florida landmark by 25 miles.

Its hard to find a natural feature like this in Florida, so deserted.  Still, I have to wonder what de León would think today of all the nearby senseless development.  Was he really a conquistador only in search of gold?  Or did he have some sense of the natural beauty of the place he was "discovering". . . would he be aghast at the sight of what has become of Florida?  Or would he be looking to cash in like so many other interlopers have over the 500 years since his initial visit.
One can still escape the crowds in Florida. but it is becoming increasingly difficult. There are still flowers too, where one cultivates them. The natural wildflowers have withered, dried, and died these many long dry seasons. Above and below: These are some of my Sunflower Trees (Tithonia diversifolia) which remain in full bloom. This is the longest period I've had to enjoy them since the climate started changing so radically. Normally the Sunflower trees don't bloom until late October. In a "normal" year we wouldn't have any frost until late December. But there is nothing "normal" about our weather anymore. We'll have frost, then heat, then more frost. . . then really hot. . . and moreover, never-ending dry spells. Today was 82° F (28° C) with cloud-free skies.
We've Read:
A Canadian flag raising on Hans Island in 2005, left, and a Danish flag raising i n 2002
From left:  Canadian Department of National Defense, Polfoto

International disputes over territory can be ugly affairs, waged with all the nastiness of a divorce, backed with the force of armies. Just in the last few years, China has built islands topped with military bases to back its claim to vast stretches of ocean, in conflict with half a dozen other Asian countries, while Russia has forged a path of bloodshed and destruction in Ukraine over its annexation of Crimea.
Nares Strait Border (Kennedy Channel) between Canada and Greenland
There is no border between point 122 and 123.  Agreement between the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark and the Government of Canada relating to the Delimitation of the Continental Shelf between Greenland and Canada (17 December 1973). by Lasse Jensen

But that’s not how Canada and Denmark roll. Their way of contesting ownership of a small (barren knoll measuring 1.3 km2 (0.5 sq mi), 1,290 metres (0.80 mi) long and 1,199 metres (0.745 mi) wide) in the Arctic would better suit a dinner party than a battlefield: It comes down to B.Y.O.B.  Hans Island is really just a large rock, but it happens to lie smack dab in the middle of the Nares Strait, a 22-mile-wide channel of very cold water separating Canada and Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark. The island falls within the 12-mile territorial limit of either shore, allowing both sides to claim it under international law.
Hans Island as seen from the air, with Canada's Ellesmere Island in the background

Canada and Denmark set out to establish a definitive border through the strait in 1973, but they couldn’t agree on what to do about Hans Island, so they left the issue aside to be resolved later.

The calm diplomatic waters grew choppy in 1984 when Canadian troops visited the island, planted their nation’s flag and left another symbolic marker as well: a bottle of Canadian whisky.
The Danes couldn’t let that stand. The country’s minister of Greenland affairs soon arrived on the island to replace the offending Canadian symbols with a Danish flag and a bottle of Danish schnapps, along with a note saying “Welcome to the Danish island.”

And so began a spirited dispute, one that has lasted decades, with each side dropping by the island periodically to scoop up the other side’s patriotic bottle and replace it with their own. (What becomes of the evicted liquor? No one is — hic — saying.)

Canada and Denmark agreed in 2005 on a process to resolve the status of Hans Island, but the diplomats have made little headway since then. Hoping to encourage the negotiations, two academics put forward a proposal in 2015 to blend realpolitik with real estate: Make the island a “condominium” of shared sovereignty under two flags — and presumably, two bottles.

The British Met Office's forecast for November, December and January warns that Northern Hemisphere temperatures are set to plummet into the coldest category it has on record. 

And the forecast is so severe that the forecaster's experts are even briefing the Cabinet Office, emergency services, transport bosses and councils over how best to respond to extreme icy conditions. 

It blames the coming deep freeze on disruptions to the polar vortex wind, which will force it to divert south from the Arctic circle and bring freezing winds to all of the Northern Hemisphere.
Sea Turtle Rescue
 Extremely hot and dry conditions over Florida are being accompanied by a strong onshore flow around a massive high pressure system.  That onshore flow is causing very rough surf conditions stranding hundreds of endangered juvenile Hawksbill Sea Turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) along Florida East Coast beaches.
The turtles are exhausted and generally motionless by the time they end up on shore having been tossed around by the rough surf for hours.  If you find any of these turtles take them to the nearest lifeguard or ranger station so that they might see that the proper authorities rescue them.
 It appears the turtles are tangled in sargassum (sea weed) as it washes ashore and then they struggle out to get away from the surf.  The beaches are badly eroded from weeks of onshore flow following Hurricane Matthew and the turtles don't have anymore to go. 
These images were made today at Canaveral National Seashore
south of New Smyrna Beach

Cotton Fields and the Southeast Drought

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An Upland Cotton bloom (Gossypium hirsutum) grown in my garden in Florida from seeds collected in Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi.  The plant is native to Central America, Mexico, the Caribbean and Southern Florida but is cultivated primarily in the American Southeast (Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi).
A few weeks after the bloom a seed pod forms and subsequently burst open revealing the cotton fiber which surrounds the seeds in a sharp, hard seed "boll."

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Severe to Extreme Drought has Ravaged Southern Cotton in 2016
Drought and Fire in the Southeast
In many areas the cotton either did not sprout or baked in the soil soon after sprouting.  In other areas the cotton crop is stunted from the drought that has persisted through late Spring to late Fall in the Southeastern USA.  Currently the drought is spreading east and south and if rain doesn't come soon will surely encompass most of the Southeast USA.  In east central Florida it has barely rained since May aside from brief brushes with tropical storms.


Wildfires in the southeastern United States are usually small and do not produce much smoke compared to the big blazes in the western United States, Canada, or Russia. But a cluster of fires in Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky in November 2016 defied that trend.

On November 7, 2016, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite observed thick plumes of smoke streaming from forests in the southern Appalachians. Extreme drought fueled the outbreak of fires, and strong winds spread smoke broadly across the Southeast.

The ongoing—and in some areas record-breaking—drought began in May 2016 and intensified throughout the summer. By November, data from the U.S. Drought Monitor showed exceptional drought—the highest level on the scale—across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina. All of the American Southeast, except for coastal areas, faced at least moderate drought.
The map above shows areas that have faced intense evaporative stress between October 6 and November 6, 2016, as represented by the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI). The ESI is not a measure of precipitation; rather, this dataset is based on observations of land surface temperatures (collected by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s geostationary satellites) and on observations of leaf area index from NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites. The combination makes it possible to gauge evapotranspiration—how much water is evaporating from the land surface and from the leaves of plants. Measuring evapotranspiration is useful because unusually low evapotranspiration is an early indicator that plants are facing stress—even if the leaves have not wilted or turned brown yet.
Cotton Fields
by Lead Belly c1940


When I was a little bitty baby

My mama done rock me in the cradle

In them old cotton fields back home

It was back in Louisiana

Just about a mile from Texarkana

In them old cotton fields back home
 Let me tell you now well got me in a fix

I caught a nail in my tire doing lickitey splits

I had to walk a long long way to town

Came upon a nice old man well he had a hat on

Wait a minute mister can you give me some directions

I gonna want to be right off for home
 Don't care if them cotton balls get rotten

When I got you baby, who needs cotton

In them old cotton fields back home

Brother only one thing more that's gonna warm you

A summer's day out in California

It's gonna be those cotton fields back home
 It was back in Louisiana

Just about a mile from Texarkana

Give me them cotton fields

(It was back in Louisiana)

Let me hear it for the cotton fields

(Just about a mile from Texarkana)

You know that there's just no place like home
 Well boy it sure feels good to breathe the air back home

You shoulda seen their faces when they seen how I grown

In them old cotton fields back home
The most famous song about cotton (lyrics above in italics) was written and recorded by Lead Belly in 1940, "Cotton Fields" was introduced into the canon of folk music via its inclusion on the 1954 album release Odetta & Larry which comprised performances by Odetta at the Tin Angel nightclub in San Francisco with instrumental and vocal accompaniment by Lawrence Mohr: this version was entitled "Old Cotton Fields at Home". 
The song's profile was boosted via its recording by Harry Belafonte first on his 1958 album Belafonte Sings the Blues with a live version appearing on the 1959 concert album Belafonte at Carnegie Hall: Belafonte had learned "Cotton Fields" from Odetta and been singing it in concert as early as 1955. A #13 hit in 1961 for The Highwaymen, "Cotton Fields" served as an album track for a number of C&W and folk-rock acts including Ferlin Husky (The Heart and Soul of Ferlin Husky 1963), Buck Owens (On the Bandstand 1963), the New Christy Minstrels (Chim-Chim-Cheree 1965) and the Seekers (Roving With The Seekers1964): Odetta also made a new studio recording of the song for her 1963 album One Grain of Sand.
 The Springfields included "Cotton Fields" on a 1962 EP release: this version is featured on the CD On An Island Of Dreams: The Best Of The Springfields. "Cotton Fields" was also recorded by Unit 4+2 for their Concrete and Clay album (1965). A rendering in French: "L'enfant do," was recorded in 1962 by Hugues Aufray and Petula Clark.
American rock band the Beach Boys recorded "Cotton Fields" on November 18, 1968: the track with Al Jardine on lead vocals debuted on the group's 1969 album 20/20.

Dissatisfied with Brian Wilson's arrangement of the song, Jardine later led the group to record a more country rock style version; this version recorded on August 15, 1969, featured Orville "Red" Rhodes on pedal steel guitar. Entitled "Cottonfields", the track afforded the Beach Boys their most widespread international success while also consolidating the end of the group's hit-making career in the US (although they would enjoy periodic comebacks there). "Cottonfields" would be the final Beach Boys' single released on Capitol Records– the group's label since May 1962 – and their last single released in mono.
While barely making a dent in the U.S. (number 95 Record World, number 103 Billboard) though promoted with an appearance on the network TV pop show Something Else, the song succeeded across the Atlantic, reaching number two in the UK's Melody Maker chart and listed as the tenth-biggest seller of the year by the New Musical Express. Worldwide – outside North America – it nearly replicated the success of the group's "Do It Again" two years before. It was number 1 in Australia, South Africa, Sweden and Norway, number 2 in Denmark, number 3 in Ireland, similarly top 5 in the United Kingdom, Japan, Spain and Rhodesia; number 12 in the Netherlands, number 13 in New Zealand and number 29 in Germany. Because of this popularity, it was placed on the international (ex-US) release of the group's Sunflower album.
The original Lead Belly lyrics state that the fields are "down in Louisiana, just ten miles from Texarkana". Later versions (e.g., Creedence Clearwater Revival's) say the fields are "down in Louisiana, just about a mile from Texarkana". Both are geographically impossible, as Texarkana is about 30 miles north of the Arkansas–Louisiana border. This song line suggests the writer had the widely held but mistaken belief that Texarkana is partially in Louisiana.
The song and its various cover versions became a synonym of bluegrass music, far from actual cotton yielding regions. E.g. the German skiffle band Die Rhöner Säuwäntzt describe their style as Musik von den Baumwollfeldern der Rhön, translating into "music played in the Rhön Mountains (imaginary) cotton fields".

My Cotton Field
My Roots Are in These Fields
100s of years of my ancestors have farmed these Mississippi fields of cotton.  Today, the fields lay fallow, except when I decide to experiment with seeds I've collected in my travels.  These heavily irrigated fields did OK this year but are barely 3' tall.  My Florida-grown cotton from the same seed batches is much healthier-looking with daily irrigation and intense sunshine.
 Below:  The sign says it all.  The sign is in a neighboring field of pecan trees.

Walking Man

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Crescent Lake, Olympic National Park
© Phillip Lott

Moving in silent desperation, keeping an eye on the Holy Land.
A hypothetical destination, say, who is this walking man?

Well, the leaves have come to turning and the goose has gone to fly,
And bridges are for burning, so don't you let that yearning pass you by.
Walking man, walking man walks.
Any other man stops and talks but the walking man walks.

Walking Man
Walking Man is the fifth studio album in singer-songwriterJames Taylor's discography. Released on June 1, 1974, it was not as successful as his previous efforts, only reaching #13 on the Billboard Album Chart and only selling 300,000 copies in the USA. It is also the only studio album he released that never received a certification as a gold record from the RIAA. The song "Walking Man", released as the album's first single, failed to place on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at all, but nevertheless stands today as an often reprised fan favorite.
Little River Dam, Belfast-Northport, Maine
© Phillip Lott


Well the frost is on the pumpkin and the hay is in the barn.
Pappy's come to rambling on, stumbling around drunk down on the farm.

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And the walking man walks. Doesn't know nothing at all.
Any other man stops and talks but the walking man walks on by, walk on by.
Bettles, Alaska

Most everybody's got seed to sow. 
It ain't always easy for a weed to grow, oh no.
So he don't hoe the row for no one, for sure he's always missing,
and something ain't never quite right.
Ah, but who would want to listen to you kissing his existence good night?
Autumn Alley


Walking man walk. Walk on by my door. Well, any other man stops and talks
but not the walking man. 
He's the walking man, born to walk, walk on walking man.
Autumn Mist

 Well now, would he have wings to fly? Would he be free?
Golden wings against the sky, walking man, walk on by.
So long, walking man.


Autumn
(otoño, l'automne, autunno, осень)
Autumn Mountains

Autumn leaves under frozen souls,
Hungry hands turning soft and old,
My hero cried as we stood out there in the cold,
Like these autumn leaves I don't have nothing to hold.

Handsome smile, wearing handsome shoes,
Too young to say, though I swear he knew,
And I hear him singing while he sits there in his chair,
While these autumn leaves float around everywhere.

And I look at you, and I see me,
Making noise so restlessly,
But now it's quiet and I can hear you saying,
'My little fish don't cry, my little fish don't cry.'

Autumn leaves have faded now,
That smile I lost, well I've found somehow,
Because you still live on in my father's eyes,
These autumn leaves, all these autumn leaves, 
all these autumn leaves are yours tonight.


A track from Paolo Nutini's debut album, this song is about Nutini's grandfather who passed away when Paolo was 12 years old. 

Nutini's family has owned a fish and chip shop for generations in his hometown Paisley in Scotland. When Nutini was a child and his parents were busy working in the store, they would send him to his grandfather's house, which is where he was first introduced to music. He witnessed his grandfather experience the different stages of grief about the death of his grandmother. Nutini spoke to The Big Issue about watching his grandfather channel those emotions into music. "He'd be sat at the piano with his glasses with the brown tint, head up, eyes closed, and just playing these beautiful arias from Aida and other operas," he said. "Every now and again I can even remember the wee tear trickling down. To me he was just singing and looking up and he was just like, 'I hope you can hear this, darling.'"

 Autumn Road
 A Walk in the Woods
Alberta, Canada
 Autumn Birch
Autumn Brook
 Autumn Falls
 Autumn Light in the Woods
 Autumn Mist Rising
Estes Park, Colorado
 Autumn Palm Trees, California
Autumn Sun, 
Lake Harris, Leesburg, Florida
© Phillip Lott


Where known the provenance of these photos is embedded in the file name and/or watermarked in the corner of the image. All other images are assumed to be public domain. If you own the copyright to any image found here and wish for it to be credited or removed write to phillip@phillipsnaturalworld.com and your image will be promptly handled as directed.

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 the many faces of 
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If You Voted for Trump
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Unusual autumn warmth was spread across the United States and precipitation was scarce in October 2016 according to the monthly US summary released by NOAA;'s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) this week.

Sea surface height anomalies (departures from average) during the northern-autumn phase of the last four La Niña events, including the one now beginning. Higher sea surface heights (red and white areas) are associated with warmer upper-ocean temperatures. Image credit: NASA imagery, compilation courtesy Jan Null, @ggweather, Golden Gate Weather Services.

Weak La Niña Expected to 
Persist into 2017

La Niña 2016-17 isn’t looking like a spectacular event. Model runs released this week from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (see Figure 3 below) are in general agreement that this should bottom out as a weak La Niña event over the next several months, with SSTs gradually returning to the neutral range by late winter or early spring. In their joint predictions from early November, forecasters at NOAA and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) call for neutral conditions to be the most likely state by the first quarter of 2017 (see Figure 4 below). Hints of a possible return to El Niño in 2017-18 are already showing up in the longest-range model runs. The NOAA/IRI outlook gives odds twice as high for El Niño (about 30%) as for La Niña (about 15%) by summer 2017, although neutral conditions remain the most likely outcome.

Hoh Rainforest, Olympic National Park

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Does this forest look familiar?  It should +Twilight fans this is the rainforest near the real (and mythical) town of Forks, Washington +Twilight Fans, and it does feel as otherworldly in person as it does in the movies.

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The spectacular Hoh Rainforest is located on Washington's Olympic Peninsula.  It is one of the largest temperate rainforests in the United States.  Within Olympic National Park, the forest is protected from commercial exploitation.  This includes 24 miles (39 km) of low elevation forest 394 to 2,493 feet (120 to 760 m) along the Hoh River.
 The Hoh River Valley was formed thousands of years ago by glaciers.  Between the park boundary and the Pacific Ocean, lies 48 km (30 miles) of river, much of the forest along the river in that unprotected area has been logged within the last century, although some pockets of forest remain.
Flora of the Hoh Rainforest
The dominant species in the Hoh Rainforest are Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla); some grow to tremendous size, reaching 95 meters (312 feet) in height and 7 meters (23 feet) in diameter.  Coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), western redcedar (Thuja plicata), bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum), red alder (Ainus rubra), vine maple (Acer circinatum), and black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa) are also found throughout the forest.
The forest has a magical feel to it.  I kept expecting a vampire to come out of the brush and bite me in the neck.  It looks exactly like what you would expect in any vampire TV show or movie. . .kind of misty, kind of spooky, and really otherworldly. 
The rains were intermittent but it was soggy. 
 Typically the forest receives between 140 and 170 inches of rain (3,500-4,300 mm) per year (that is 12-14 feet or over 4 meters of rainfall) and it rarely freezes allowing for incredible growth considering its latitude of about 47°50' N. or about the same latitude as northernmost Maine (Caribou, Maine is further south at 46°50') for comparison.
Fauna of the Hoh
Many native fauna make the Hoh Rainforest home, including the Pacific tree frog (Pseudacris regilla), northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), bobcat (Lynx rufus), cougar (Felis concolor cougar), raccoon (Procyon lotor), Olympic black bear (Ursus americanus altifrontalis), Roosevelt elk (Cervus canadensis roosevelti), and black-tailed deer (Odocoileus columbianus).
 The area is also home to the banana slug (Ariolimax columbianus), which has recently been threatened by the encroachment of a new species of slug, the black slug (Arion ater), an invasive species from Northern Europe.
Wandering the Hoh in perfect quiet and with no cell signal I kept hearing that great old tune in my head, "Good Time Charlie's Got the Blues." Why?  One, it was written and performed by Washington State native Danny O'Keefe.  Two, we were still reeling from the second stolen election in our short adult lives wherein the FBI had decided to install a puppet as president that they could control.  That "President-elect" is a climate change denier and surely uninterested in wild places like these that desperately need our protection.  So, the song is appropriate.  Progressives moving to the West Coast deciding the rest of the country is a waste of time. . . growing up in a world with little hope. . .etcetera.

"Good Time Charlie's Got The Blues"

Everybody's goin' away
Said they're movin' to LA
There's not a soul I know around
Everybody's leavin' town

Some caught a freight, some caught a plane
Find the sunshine, leave the rain
They said this town's a waste of time
I guess they're right, it's wastin' mine

Some gotta win, some gotta lose
Good time Charlie's got the blues
Good time Charlie's got the blues

Ya know my heart keeps tellin' me
"You're not a kid at thirty-three"
"Ya play around, ya lose your wife"
"Ya play too long, you lose your life"

I got my pills to ease the pain
Can't find a thing to ease the rain
I'd love to try and settle down
But everybody's leavin' town

Some gotta win, some gotta lose
Good time Charlie's got the blues
Good time Charlie's got the blues
Good time Charlie's got the blues

[whistling to end]

Listen to the original recording below:

More about
Danny O'Keefe
In 1968 O'Keefe was a member of a four-man heavy psychedelic rock band named Calliope. The group recorded one album, "Steamed", for Buddah Records before disbanding.

O'Keefe is best known for his only hit single "Good Time Charlie's Got the Blues", which was released in September 1972, and reached number 9 on the U.S. Billboard Hot 100 chart, and for "The Road", covered by Jackson Browne on Running on Empty. "Good Time Charlie's Got the Blues" stayed on the Billboard chart for 14 weeks and sold a million copies. The gramophone record's sales culminated in a gold disc issued by the R.I.A.A.in June 1973.
"Good Time Charlie's Got the Blues" was first recorded by O'Keefe in 1967, but not released. It was recorded by The Bards and released in 1968 as the b-side to the song "Tunesmith" on Parrot Records. The Bards were a band from Moses Lake, Washington.  The song was recorded by O'Keefe for his self-titled debut album in 1971. The following year he re-recorded it (with a slower, more downbeat arrangement) for his second album, O'Keefe. The second version was issued as a single, reaching #9 on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart, #5 on the adult contemporary chart, and #63 on the country chart.  The song was also covered by Mel Tormé, especially for a 1986 episode of NBC's Night Court entitled "Leon, We Hardly Knew Ye".
Throughout the winter season, rain falls frequently in the Hon Rainforest, contributing to the massive yearly total of 140 to 170 inches (or 12 to 14 feet) of precipitation each year.
The result of the massive amounts of rain and a temperate climate are a lush, green canopy of both coniferous and deciduous species.  Mosses and ferns blanket the surfaces of the trees adding another dimension to the enchantment of the rainforest.
The Hoh Rainforest is located in the stretch of the Pacific coast from southeastern Alaska to the central coast of California.  The Hoh is one of the finest remaining examples of temperate rainforest in the United States.  It is a popular destination but be warned that there is no easy way to get there.  From Port Angeles it takes a couple hours to negotiate the peninsula around to the Hoh.  On recent days a bridge has been out on Hwy 101 making the journey even longer.  On a typical day it would take a little over an hour to drive from Port Angeles to Forks, Washington. . .and then another hour or so to get into the rainforest.
The Hoh River that traverses the Rainforest is about 56 miles (90 km) long, originating at Hoh Glacier on Mount Olympus.  It flows through the Olympic Mountains of Olympic National Park and Olympic National Forest emptying into the Pacific Ocean at the Hoh Indian Reservation.
 The indigenous people of the Hoh River are known as the Hoh but they call themselves chalat'.  Their name for the Hoh River is chalak'ac'it.
 On the north side of the mouth of the Hoh River, across from the Hoh Indian Reservation, the town of Oil City was established in 1911 by Frank Johnson and the Olympic Oil Company. Natives had discovered the oil, which seeps to the surface.  This was proposed to be a deep water oil port.  Many of the lots in the town were bought on the hopes of oil prosperity, but some were used for vacation homes.  Oil drilling operations were conducted by the Milwaukee Oil Co., the Washington Oil Co., the Jefferson Oil Co. and others in the surrounding area.  No significant commercial oil reserves were found.  Later, two-thirds of the platted Oil City was returned to the state which now forms part of the Olympic Wilderness Park.
 Interestingly, when the Olympic National Park was created in 1938 it was not to protect these magnificent forests, but its primary objective was to protect herds of Roosevelt elk.  Today about 400 of the park's 4,000-5,000 elk live in the Hoh River Valley.



What does the name "Hoh" mean?
According to the Hoh Tribe page, the Hoh River takes its name from the Quinault language name for the river, "Hoxw." No meaning can be associated with the Quinault name. Some have claimed that Hoh means “fast, white water” but, in fact, no etymology for the name can be found in either the Quinault or Quileute languages. The Quileute language is also the language of the Hoh Tribe. Hoh is only a name. If there was an original meaning it has been lost. The Hoh River people themselves, who speak Quileute, call their river Cha’lak’at’sit, which means the “southern river.” We can divide the name up into its roots: -k’at’sit means ‘river,’ cha’la- means ‘(on) the south.’ Thus, just as the Calawah was called Kalo’wa (‘the one in the middle’), the Hoh River was viewed as the most southerly of the rivers in Quileute speaking country. 



 My Secret Garden
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Drought Continues to Grip Southern California

While late summer and autumn rains offered some relief to Northern California, drought continues to torment the southern part of the state. New data from the U.S. Drought Monitor show exceptional drought in California’s Central Valley, Central Coast, and South Coast.

The map above depicts drought conditions as of November 8, 2016. Areas facing exceptional drought (the highest on the scale) are shown in maroon and extreme drought is red. According to the Drought Monitor classification system, exceptional drought can bring widespread crop and pasture losses, as well as water emergencies due to low reservoirs, streams, and wells. The map is based on measurements of soil, water, and climate conditions collected by federal, state, and local observers. 

While the extent and severity of drought has fluctuated over the months and years, the large zone of exceptional drought in Southern California has persisted since January 2014. The chart below shows how extreme the current drought has been in comparison to past dry spells. While the state has experienced several dry periods since 2000, none pushed any portion of the state into exceptional drought. About 20 percent of California remains in exceptional drought now.

In Southern California, the effects have been far reaching. Some farmers have had to switch to crops that require less water. So much groundwater has been pumped from underground aquifers (to make up for the lack of surface water) that the land in the Central Valley has been sinking at an unusually rapid rate. Some towns and cities have put strict conservation measures in place to minimize water use.


Remarkably low water levels in many reservoirs in Southern California are another indicator of the severity of the drought. For instance, the volume of water in Lake Cachuma (below)—which supplies Santa Barbara with drinking water—has fallen to about 7 percent of capacity. 
Drought and Fire Consume the Southeast United States

Wildfires in the southeastern United States are usually small and do not produce much smoke compared to the big blazes in the western United States, Canada, or Russia. But a cluster of fires in Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky in November 2016 defied that trend.


On November 7, 2016, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite observed thick plumes of smoke streaming from forests in the southern Appalachians. Extreme drought fueled the outbreak of fires, and strong winds spread smoke broadly across the Southeast.

The ongoing—and in some areas record-breaking—drought began in May 2016 and intensified throughout the summer. By November, data from the U.S. Drought Monitor showed exceptional drought—the highest level on the scale—across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina. All of the American Southeast, except for coastal areas, faced at least moderate drought.
The map above shows areas that have faced intense evaporative stress between October 6 and November 6, 2016, as represented by the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI). The ESI is not a measure of precipitation; rather, this dataset is based on observations of land surface temperatures (collected by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s geostationary satellites) and on observations of leaf area index from NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites. The combination makes it possible to gauge evapotranspiration—how much water is evaporating from the land surface and from the leaves of plants. Measuring evapotranspiration is useful because unusually low evapotranspiration is an early indicator that plants are facing stress—even if the leaves have not wilted or turned brown yet.
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Florida Thanksgiving

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Despite the persistent hot and very dry weather the sunflower trees (Tithonia diversifolia)  have survived.  They attract plenty of butterflies and bees.

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But. . . something seems a little upside down, doesn't it.  Ah, yes, that's the approaching holidays and the forced family time that is upon us.

HOW TO SURVIVE THANKSGIVING
This week we had the first cool nights we've had this year though temperatures have stayed well above frost-inducing 40° F (4½° C).  Above, a larvae of the Cloudless Sulphur Butterfly (Phoebis sennae) munches on its favorite local flower, the Emperor's Candlestick (Senna alata).
 Above and Below:  A pair of Cloudless Sulphur Butterflies engage in an elaborate mating ritual, unaware that it is winter in most parts of the northern hemisphere. . .
 Below:  Another Cloudless Sulphur butterfly on Emperor's Candlestick.
 Below:  A Cloudless Sulphur butterfly on Turk's  Cap (Malvaviscus penduiflorus), this hibiscus-like plant is also known locally as "mazapan."
 Below:  A Cloudless Sulphur butterfly on periwinkle (Catharanthus roseus).
 Below:  A Gulf Fritillary (Agraulis vanillae) on Tithonia.
 Below:  The honeybees have started overnighting on the remaining sunflower tree blooms as the nights have turned cooler.  They sometimes share the large blooms.  This is the first year in memory that the sunflower trees have completely bloomed out without frost interrupting the bloom to seed cycle.
 Below:  A Monarch (Danaus plexippus) on Tithonia.
 Below:  Countless ants on a sunflower tree bloom.  The sap of these trees is sweet. . . and sticky.  It also stains easily.  When working with the plants I try to always remember to wear black or throwaway clothes.

Click on this or any other photo for a larger view
 Below:  A Painted Lady butterfly (Vanessa cardui) on Tithonia.
 Below:  Many sunflower tree blooms and a few bees.

 Above and Below:  Zebra Longwing butterflies (Heliconius charitonius) on Tithonia.

 Below:  My best attempt at a turkey cake.
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The New York Times reports that poor Kayne West was hospitalized for a 'Psychiatric Emergency,' after reportedly seeing wife Kim Kardashian's new jumbo-sized butt.  When will men learn that that family is toxic?
The number of dead trees in California's drought-stricken forests has risen dramatically to more than 102 million in what officials described as an unparalleled ecological disaster that heightens the danger of massive wildfires and damaging erosion.  The U.S. Forest Serivce, which performs surveys of forest land, said that 62 million trees have died in 2016 alone.
In the modern era of presidential politics, no candidate has ever won the popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, yet still managed to lose the electoral college.  In that sense, 2016 was a historic split:  Donald Trump won the presidency in terms of electoral votes while losing the nationwide vote to Clinton by almost 2 million (and counting).  But there's another divide exposed by the election.  The divide is economic, and it is massive.  Clinton won 64% of the economic activity of the country while Trump won only 36% in terms of share of real GDP by county.
Just in time for the Northern Hemisphere's winter things are getting hot in Australia, and Aussiebum is always there to show you why you should be booking your next trip south.



The End of the Earth: Population Bomb

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Sometimes it’s difficult to fathom that the world could actually become even more crowded than it is today—especially when elbowing through a teeming Delhi market, hustling across a frenetic Tokyo street crossing or sharing breathing space with sweaty strangers crammed into a London Tube train. Yet our claustrophobia-inducing numbers are only set to grow.


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Florida Pelicans appear to be fleeing the influx of humanity.
See:  Puerto Ricans Flood Central Florida
While it is impossible to precisely predict population levels for the coming decades, researchers are certain of one thing: the world is going to become an increasingly crowded place. New estimates issued by the United Nations in July of 2016 predict that, by 2030, our current 7.3 billion will have increased to 8.4 billion. That figure will rise to 9.7 billion by 2050, and to as many as a mind-boggling 16.5 billion by 2100.
Explanation: This chart shows estimates and probabilistic projections of the total world population through 2100. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2015 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2015 Revision of the World Population Prospects.  Source:  United Nationals Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
Support Sea Shepherd Conservation Society and theInternational Planned Parenthood Federation

World population could rise to a mind-boggling 16.5 billion by 2100 
Yet even today, it’s difficult enough to get away from one another. Drive a few hours outside of New York City or San Francisco, into the Catskill Mountains or Point Reyes National Seashore, and you’ll find crowds of city-dwellers clogging trails and beaches. Even more remote and supposedly idyllic spaces are feeling the crush, too. Backcountry permits for the Grand Tetons in Wyoming sell out months in advance, while Arches National park in Utah had to shut down for several hours last May due to a traffic gridlock. Meanwhile world politics are consumed by discussion of how to end illegal migration from Mexico and Europe is in the grips of yet another migration crisislike last seen in WWII.
Lebanon Church Road, Seminary, Mississippi
Distinctly uncrowded, for now.
For those who can afford the luxury of occasionally escaping other members of our own species, doing so often requires getting on a plane and travelling to increasingly far-fetched locales. Yet humanity’s footprint extends even to the most seemingly isolated of places: you’ll find nomadic herders in Mongolia’s Gobi desert, Berbers in the Sahara and camps of scientists in Antarctica.

This begs the question: as the world becomes even more crowded, will it become practically impossible to find a patch of land free from human settlement or presence? Will we eventually overtake all remaining habitable space?

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Virtually all population growth between now and the end of the century will be in cities according to most population experts:  How far will cities expand?
Answering these questions requires examining what we know about where people will likely base themselves in the future, and what life will be like then. For starters, experts predict that—reflecting current trends—an increasing number of people will live out their lives in cities. As agriculture becomes more efficient, people abandon jobs in that shrinking and difficult sector and instead take up ones in urban manufacturing or service. This has been going on for some decades. In 1930, just 30% of the world’s population lived in cities, compared to about 55% today. By 2050, however, about two-thirds will be based in urban areas.

It boils down to more than one million additional people moving into cities every five to six days from now until 2100.

Around half of the world’s population will live in smaller cities of half-a-million to three million residents. The rest will live in megacities, or those that harbor 10 million or more, which will mostly be located in developing and emerging economies such as China, India and Nigeria. Because of governance challenges, however, cities themselves probably won’t exceed far beyond 10 million or so. Instead, mega-regions—places where urban sprawl continues for miles and encompasses a number of cities, as seen today in places like the greater New York City area and China’s Pearl River Delta—will become the norm. Both cities and regions will expand geographically as well as become denser.

Much of the future population increase will come from Africa 
It takes capable governments and institutions to organize basic amenities such as freshwater, sanitation and waste disposal. Worryingly, the places that are most in need of such oversight today are also the ones where most of humanity’s growth is projected to occur. Much of the future population increase will come from Africa, which will shoot up from its current one billion people to over four billion by 2100. The Africa projections are particularly scary. A large proportion will end up in urban slums, which is not a recipe for happy living.

The problem is that Africa’s large cities—and, to some extent, Asia’s as well—are not equipped to absorb all of that population influx.

Indeed, places like Lagos, Dhaka and Mumbai already face tremendous challenges at current levels. People already buy water at great [high] prices from street vendors, human waste is all over the place and garbage is just abandoned—not to even speak of green spaces around the city or quality of habitation. We are not preparing adequately in thinking about the placement and organization, or the political and environmental security, of growing cities. Religious dogma which breeds ignorance is often to blame.

We have already used up the most productive land, rivers and water
Wealthy countries are aging, meaning their rate of growth and innovation will begin to slow. Secondly, the environmental odds of unencumbered growth are stacked against us: we have already used up the most productive land, dammed the most energetically profitable rivers and tapped into the easiest-to-reach groundwater. Finally, inequality is becoming an increasing problem. While the average American’s median income has not budged much in the past few decades, the top 1% is doing increasingly well. That phenomenon will continue into the future and in part will be driven by environmental issues.

Climate Change is a Wild Card
Climate change is another wild card that could have a significant impact on how both developed and developing urban centers play out in the future. Around 60% of all cities that currently have a million residents or more are at risk of at least one type of major natural disaster, many of them climate-related, and even the most well-organized, highly developed cities have yet to fully plan for these threats. People often don’t want to have this discussion because it’s associated with an alarmist view of climate change, but it’s worthwhile to consider what catastrophic climate change would mean for habitable space.

Exceptional Drought 
Grips the United States

As exceptional drought grips the United States politicians are quiet about its consequences. Instead they are concerned with eliminating birth control and wiping out decades of environmental protection progress in the United States.  What happens when there isn't enough water to go around?  Curiously the Florida peninsula where no rain has fallen in 8 weeks is not included in the current Drought Monitor.  Wouldn't want to scare those tourists away, would we?
There is little chance for survival of the world's remaining wildlife with a human population over 10 billion.  Support the Nature Conservancy and the African Wildlife Foundation

Will Antartica Be The Last Refuge of Humanity?
Cities, however, are not the only places that will experience future change due to growing populations. Rural and remote places that are not strictly protected will likely see a modest increase in human habitation, too. With a combination of climate change and technology, it’s not unthinkable that Antarctica might become inhabited, although it’s hard to imagine it being densely populated. This also means that, for those with the means to do so, finding a quiet corner free from humanity’s mark will become even more challenging. There will simply be too many other people with the same idea in mind.
Support the World Wildlife Fund and Planned Parenthood

About 3% of Earth’s total land supports more than half of humanity 
None of this, however, means that we will run out of actual space to live. Around half of the world’s land currently holds around 2% of the planet’s population, whereas only about 3% of total land supports more than half of humanity. But a growing population does mean that the number of relatively pristine places left to visit will also likely decrease, thanks to an ever-increasing demand for resources needed to support urban lives. There’s likely little threat of the world’s rainforests all being taken over by cities. The bigger threat is the indirect impact of urbanization on those landscapes. Cities require wood for creating buildings and furniture, agricultural land for growing food, space to dispose of millions of tones of garbage produced on a daily basis—and much more.

More on this subject:
Common sense and scientific studies have shown that improved access to birth control can be a valuable tool in slowing global warming, but many politicians are afraid to broach the subject.  Birth control is also the logical solution to the surge in terrorism across Africa, the Middle East and Europe. . .but who's talking about it?  No one.


Part of a river's water level is determined by the groundwater reserves in the area drained by it and the duration and intensity of monsoon rains. Water tables have been declining in the Ganges basin due to the reckless extraction of groundwater. Much of the groundwater is, anyway, already contaminated with arsenic and fluoride. A controversial UN climate report said the Himalayan glaciers could melt to a fifth of the current levels by 2035.


Evidence of declining water levels and waning health of the 2,500km (1,553 miles)-long Ganges, which supports a quarter of India's 1.3 billion people, is mounting.  No one should be surprised.


We're Following:
Norwegian Sea Cloud Streets

On March 17, 2016, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite, acquired this natural-color image of the cloud streets over the Norwegian Sea.


Cloud streets are long parallel bands of cumulus clouds that form when cold air blows over warmer waters and a warmer air layer (temperature inversion) rests over the top of both. In this case, cool air appears to be moving southward across Arctic sea ice toward northern Scandinavia.

The comparatively warm water gives up heat and moisture to the cold air above, and columns of heated air called thermals naturally rise through the atmosphere. The temperature inversion acts like a lid. When the rising thermals hit it, they roll over and loop back on themselves, creating parallel cylinders of rotating air. On the upper edge of these cylinders of rising air, clouds form. Along the downward side (descending air), skies are clear.
Austin Sikora
BMG Models

Drought Induced Fires Rage in the Southeast USA

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Above:  Gatlinburg Inn Surrounded by Fire
Photo:  Tennessee Highway Patrol
  
Below:  On November 29, 2016, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite(VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite captured a nighttime image of the fire in Tennessee. (For comparison, it is paired with an image of the same area on November 22.) Clouds blocked most of the city lights on November 29, but the blaze was so bright that it illuminated the cloud deck just east of Gatlinburg. The fire was imaged by a special “day-night band” that detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to detect dim signals
The Great Smoky Mountains are named for the blue haze that often hangs over the mountains due to volatile chemicals released by pine forests. But in November 2016, the Smokies lived up to their name for a very different reason. 

With drought gripping the southeastern U.S., intense and destructive wildfires have raged in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina for much of November. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured a natural-color image (below) of smoke billowing from several of the fires on November 27, 2016.

Two days later, blazes forced the evacuation of 14,000 people from Gatlinburg, Tennessee, a town popular among tourists visiting Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Unusually strong winds invigorated the fires overnight, and hundreds of buildings were damaged or destroyed in Gatlinburg, according to the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency. More than 11,000 people lost power. The national park, the most visited in the country, was forced to close.
The ongoing—and in some areas record-breaking—drought in the southern Appalachians started in May 2016 and intensified throughout the summer. Many areas have experienced their hottest and driest autumn on record. While a storm system brought some rain to the region on November 29, the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency does not expect that it will bring immediate relief to areas where the fires are burning.
Above:  The Mystery Mansion Attraction burns to the ground in Gatlinburg
Photo:  Twitter @coaster_nation
The Internet Asks, 
"Did Tennesseans Deserve It?
Meanwhile tempers flared on social media as progressives asked if this event might change this bastion on conservatism's views on climate change and global warming.  Needless to say the conservatives, who voted largely for Donald Trump (who sees Climate Change as a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese), were not amused, while the progressives posited that events like this will be enough to drag non-believers into the light on climate change.
In Florida, drought rages but is largely underreported due to directives from politicos who don't want to spook tourists or newcomers.  In most places on the peninsula of Florida no rain has fallen since October 7, and little fell between May 1 and the arrival of Hurricane Matthew on October 6, leaving lakes empty and forests tinder dry and primed for wildfires.


In addition to the drought and winds, other factors have intensified the fires across the Southeast. Decades of aggressive fire suppression have primed forests to burn, and outbreaks of insects such as the southern pine beetle and hemlock wooly adelgid have left large stands of dead trees.

More on this Story

Daily Post Gatlinburg (2016, November 29) Forest Fires Blanket Area in Smoke and Ash. Accessed November 29, 2016.

Knoxville News Sentinel (2016, November 29) 14,000 evacuated from Gatlinburg; fires still burning. Accessed November 29, 2016.

NASA Earth Observatory (2016, November 11) Drought and Fire in the Southeast.

NASA Short-Term Prediction and Research Transition Center (2016, November 16) Southeastern Fires Observed in VIIRS Imagery. Accessed November 29, 2016.

National Weather Service ( 2016, November 29) High Wind Watch. Accessed November 29, 2016.
Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (2016, November 29) TEMA Headlines. Accessed November 29, 2016.

World AIDS Day
While surviving AIDS is more likely today than it was 10 years ago, it is no easy journey.  Some of the medications used to treat HIV and AIDS can cause problems with cholesterol or sugar levels, heart attacks, stroke, negatively affect the health of the kidneys, or the strength of bones. Some patients may develop changes in their body shape and appearance, including increased fat in the belly, neck, shoulders, breasts, or face, or loss of fat in the face, legs, or arms. Rashes, asthma, depression, the list if symptoms attributed to the disease and the medications used to treat the disease is long.  This is why it is so important to support AIDS research and prevention by observing World AIDS Day on December 1.
On 29th November, to mark World AIDS Day 2016, The World Health Organization (WHO) will launch new guidelines on HIV self-testing to encourage countries to promote self-testing and empower more people to test for HIV. WHO is also launching a new progress report "Prevent HIV: test and treat all – WHO action for country impact". The report shows that more than 18 million people living with HIV have access to HIV treatment, but many more lack HIV diagnosis and consequently are missing out on treatment. 

The global HIV epidemic claimed fewer lives in 2015 than at any point in almost twenty years. Prevention programmes reduced the number of new HIV infections per year to 2.1 million in 2015, a 35% decline in incidence since 2000. The massive expansion of antiretroviral therapy has reduced the number of people dying of HIV related causes to approximately 1.1 million 2015 – 45% fewer than in 2005. 

Having achieved the global target of halting and reversing the spread of HIV, world leaders have set the 2020 “Fast-Track” targets to accelerate the HIV response and to END AIDS BY 2030. 

On World AIDS Day 2016, WHO will be promoting these new innovative HIV testing policies, urging countries and communities deploy high-impact prevention services, and further expand early and quality treatment for all, addressing geographical disparities and leaving no one behind.

More information about the WHO and AIDS

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The Secret Life of Bees

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Imagine For a Minute You Are a Bee
It's time to leave your hive, or your underground burrow, and forage for pollen. Pollen is the stuff that flowers use to reproduce. But it’s also essential grub for you, other bees in your hive and your larvae. Once you’ve gathered pollen to take home, you or another bee will mix it with water and flower nectar that other bees have gathered and stored in the hive. But how do you decide which flowers to approach? What draws you in?

In a review recently published in the journal Functional Ecology, with the imposing title, "Plant-Pollinator Interactions From Flower to Landscape: Assessment of Pollen Rewards by Foraging Bees," researchers Elizabeth Nicholls and Natalie Hempel de Ibarra asked: What is a flower like from a bee’s perspective, and what does the pollinator experience as it gathers pollen? And that's why we're talking to you in the second person: to help you understand how bees like you, while hunting for pollen, use all of your senses — taste, touch, smell and more — to decide what to pick up and bring home.

Maybe you're ready to go find some pollen. But do you even know where to look?

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How Do Bees Know Where to Find Pollen?
If you’re a honeybee, keep an eye on how your fellow hive members dancewhen they return from their latest pollen collection outing. They’ll give you clues to where to find a good pollen score. Watch as a fellow bee moves in the shape of a figure eight and waggles only where the eight crosses: The angle of that waggle tells you in which direction to head out from the hive. The speed of the waggle tells you how far to go. But honeybees don’t just dance for the good stuff, so you can’t necessarily trust your hive mates’ recommendations. When pollen stores are low, they’ll dance for substances like potato starch, too. Yuck!

Your sense of smell is so powerful you can use it to learn about and remember pollens. You prefer the scent of flowers with pollen, especially ones you’ve experienced before. This suggests you can detect pollen at a distance, and remember its odor, too. But the pollen's odor alone is not enough. You’ll probably go for a bouquet of odors, which you can learn if rewarded with sugar in the lab. Scientists are still trying to figure out if you can smell the amino acids that make up the pollen, and if you can tell which flowers have more pollen by scent alone. You can do that with nectar from far away — by detecting the smell of other bees that were there before you, you know not to waste your time with a depleted energy source. Can you do the same thing with pollen?


More About Pollen and Nectar
Bees like you have hunted for pollen seemingly forever. You took it from plants and moved it around between them. This helped the plants make fruit, and reproduce. At the same time, bees like you used the pollen, packed with protein and fats, to nourish yourselves, develop sex organs and feed your young. Moving it to other plants wasn’t your intention.

But the plants may have been letting you get away with too much pollen, hindering their ability to reproduce in greater numbers. During the Late Cretaceous Period, when plants and animals were dying off all over the planet, including the dinosaurs, the plants adapted ways to limit how much pollen bees ate. One of their adaptations was to produce nectar. It rewarded bees when they visited flowers. It had sugar and amino acids that bees used for energy, and they would eat that instead of pollen in some cases.
For years, many scientists focused their study of bees on how they gathered nectar. They found that bees learned to make judgments about nectar, like which flowers kept the sweetest juice flowing the most often, and remembered those flowers by different characteristics, like their scent or their color.
But while nectar’s sugars and amino acids help bees keep moving, pollen’s protein and fat are essential to the reproductive cycles of you and your fellow bees. That's one reason scientists recently took a closer look at how you gather pollen, and why we're following you on your pollen-gathering rounds right now.

You’re not eating the pollen while you’re on the flower. But you may sample its taste as you’re packing it, thanks to the taste receptors on your feet, antennae and mouthparts. Scientists used to think taste wasn’t that important, because you don’t have as many genes for them as other insects do. But we know your taste receptors respond to sugars, salt and toxins, and scientists suspect proteins too, if you're a honeybee. You’re actually pretty sensitive to tasting sugars, which means you can use them as rewards to learn associations with other flower characteristics -- like the protein content of its pollen, at least in lab experiments. Being able to taste all these flavors could help you remember your pollen experience and learn what pollens may contain toxins that plants produced to limit your consumption.
What do Bees See?
Eyesight may not be the strongest of your senses if you're a bee.

Your eyes are small, and you’re pretty nearsighted. But you can distinguish colors, associate them with pollen rewards and remember those associations, for up to a week. You’re probably looking at the whole flower, not just part of it. But you’re also choosy. When scientists Felicity Muth, Daniel Papaj and Anne Leonard colored a fake plant’s petals and anther — the thing that looks like a tiny microphone covered in pollen — and paired those with a pollen reward, bumblebees tended to prefer colored petals, not anthers, as indicators of rewards, probably because they’re bigger and more visible. It may be true for you as well.  In their paper "Bees Remember Flowers for More Than One Reason:  Pollen Mediates Associative Learning," in the Journal Animal Behavior, Muth, Papaj and Leonard argue that plants offer a number of rewards to pollinators besides nectar.  They posit that bees can learn to associate multiple floral features with a pure pollen reward. 
With Poor Eyesight What Other Sense Do Bees Use to Find Pollen and Nectar?
When you collect pollen, there are certain movements many of you perform every time, like grooming and packing the pollen in particular ways. Bumblebees and carpenter bees, for instance, shake pollen from some flowers’ anthers during buzz pollination. They can adjust how long or vigorously they shake, depending on how much pollen they feel coming out.

The hairs on your legs detect pressure to gauge the pollen balls you’re carrying on your legs. You can probably sense how big they are, and their shape. Perhaps you can assess the difficulty of packing and transporting them.
Above: Male bees will sometimes overnight on flowers.  Here a trio of sleeping bees spend the night seemingly in a trance.  In the morning they rise with the first sunlight.

What About Bees Memories?  
Do They Remember How to Find that Favored Flower Again and Again?
Scientists know that you can form associative memories with touch, and believe that activating these motor patterns on a flower can help you remember your experience there.

Most of you would rather stick with pollen or flowers you’ve experienced, because it takes a lot of work to handle the stuff. We think you get accustomed to how you pack familiar pollen together onto the hairs on your body. Maybe you return to the same types of flowers because you already know the right tricks to access their pollen.

But you’re not too set in your ways. After a while, you’ll start sampling new pollen, especially if the kind you’re used to starts to run out. And you’ll get used to that pollen, too.
It's Great to Be a Bee!

You exist in a world of fragrant, colorful floral bouquets. Now step out, take a deep breath, and get back to work.

Originally published Dec. 2, 2016 by Joanna Klein, The New York Times, under the title "You're a Bee. This Is What it Feels Like," Science/Trilobites. Photos: Phillip Lott

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Romney looks sick.  That under-the-table action may be a little nauseating.  But then, he lost his dignity on the way in so what's a little nausea on top of some shameless groping and groveling?

Andrew Morrill
Timing is everything

Westworld Finale and Sun Shots

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Much like the center of the maze, we’ve been progressing toward a revelation in “Westworld” that’s been teasingly within our grasp all along. We’ve been making discoveries right alongside the hosts — discoveries about their origins and creators, about their capabilities, about their evolving sense of awareness about their true selves and the world around them. That last part has been immensely disturbing, given that some of our hosts have come to understand their function in the park as passive, defenseless objects of violence and sexual fantasy, doomed to live excruciating and frequently tragic loops. But the journey has been necessary to get them to a place where they can achieve full self-awareness and control their own destiny. Dolores gets there, and Westworld will never be the same.

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Endless Summer in Climate-changed Florida
December 5, 86° F, 30° C, afternoon sun angle 35°
Maeve (Thandie Newton) and Hector (Rodrigo Santoro)
Love those outfits
Unlocking Westworld
The key to unlocking “Westworld” has been sitting around since the third episode, “The Stray,” when Dr. Ford discusses Julian Jaynes’s radical theory of the “Bicameral Mind,” which gives the Season 1 finale its title. Othersites explained the theory as far back as mid-October — but here’s the gist: In “The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind,” Mr. Jaynes suggests that the human brain has not always functioned in the same way. His theory speculates that 3,000 years ago, men and women were capable of a great many things, but they lacked the linguistic tools for self-awareness and introspection. Instead, their actions were determined by a back-and-forth between one part of the brain that’s “speaking” and another part that listens and obeys. Mr. Jaynes describes the communication between hemispheres as a kind of hallucination where a commanding, external “god-voice” intervened when they had a decision to make.
Blazing Hot Sun and Strong SE Winds Keep Florida Winter 2016
Extremely Hot and Exceptionally Dry
Sugarcane Plumegrass (Saccharum giganteum) blows in the wind
along Deltona's lakeshore, early December 2016

Through that lens, the mysteries of “Westworld” start to clear up a little. The “god-voice” that’s been echoing through the hosts’ heads is Arnold, who has designed a path for his creations to understand themselves and take that great leap toward introspection. The metaphorical path is the maze, and the bread crumbs leading them to the center have been the memories (or “reveries”) of past constructs, with Arnold’s “voice” guiding them through exactly the sort of hallucinations Mr. Jaynes’s theory suggests. When Genevieve Valentine wrote in Vox that “the twists are meant to shock the hosts, not the viewers,” she couldn’t have known how right she would be. “The maze wasn’t meant for you,” Dolores tells the Man in Black, who’s miffed that he’s come this far, only to discover an inexplicable metaphor in the form of a cheap children’s toy. Sorry, buddy. That twist was meant to shock the hosts.
Ed Harris as The Man in Black on Westworld
The Bicameral Mind
And what a glorious shock it was! In “The Bicameral Mind,” we finally get confirmation on the theory that William and the Man in Black are the same person operating in multiple timelines. William the White Hat has slalomed down Westworld’s slippery slope over the years, gradually shedding his aversion to violence and his capacity for love and empathy in kind. He is the grotesque embodiment of how Westworld debases a man over time, and “The Bicameral Mind” laughs heartily at his demise. Consider how deeply pathetic William’s arc has been: He spent three joyless decades searching for the center of the maze — had his company, Delos, buy the place for the privilege — and the end is the ultimate anticlimax. He’s the gamer who’s thrown away the best years of his life searching for the final level only to find a kill screen that’s nothing but a blinking cursor.

The satisfying comeuppance of William/the Man in Black is merely the first fallen rock in the landslide. The gala unveiling of Ford’s new narrative has echoes of the Red Wedding in “Game of Thrones,” but here the bloodletting — or presumed bloodletting, since most of it happens after the final cut — is a morally righteous revolt. We learn that Arnold was so horrified by how his creations would be used in Westworld that he programmed Dolores and Teddy to lay waste to every single host in the park (and themselves) to keep it from opening. But open it did, subjecting androids with bicameral minds — and the potential to evolve past them, to the top of the pyramid — to the ravages of rich tourists. Even Charlotte and the board members see the park as a limited application of the intellectual property, but it goes beyond that. If we’re to understand the hosts as somewhere on the spectrum of “human,” then the park is an appalling violation.
Evan Rachel Wood (as Dolores Abernathy), James Marsden (as Teddy Flood) and Anthony Hopikins (as Dr. Robert Ford) in Westworld Season 1 Finale

You Can't Fire Me Because I Quit
In his final act as director and puppet master, Ford orchestrates the greatest “you can’t fire me because I quit” maneuver in history, marshaling a sequence of events that empowers the hosts to claim Westworld as their own. One of the fascinating elements of “The Bicameral Mind” is that not all the hosts are evolving at the same pace. The creators Jonathan Nolan and Lisa Joy, who wrote the episode, neatly pull the rug out from under Maeve, who seemed for weeks to be a model of self-determination but has in fact been integrated into Ford’s elaborate plot. She becomes the head of the spear, recruiting ruthless outlaws Hector and Armistice for the fight, but she has not achieved Dolores’s level of awareness yet. Her decision on the train to return to the park, rather than escape into the human world, sets her further down the path than other hosts, but she still has more to learn about herself.
Thanksgiving Day, on Lake Harris, Leesburg

In the meantime, we have a full-on robot revolution. Not only that, but the robots have proved themselves to be stronger than their human counterparts, and their machine-learning abilities give them the capacity to be smarter, too. “The Bicameral Mind” blows the series wide open, much as “Dollhouse” did when the lid was pried off its hermetic tech lab, and there’s going to be plenty of room for speculation before the second season. But the greatest likelihood is that “Westworld” will continue to be a show about human potential: Right now, we have a slew of angry robots busting up a black-tie event, but a new society will have to replace the old one. And if history is any indication, it stands to be a messy project.

“Westworld” went out just as it came in: with guns blazing. And just as the premiere did, it left many viewers scratching their heads.

The HBO series concluded its first season with plenty of spectacle and blood, but we’ve still got many questions that need answers, and a few ideas to consider until Season 2.

Major spoilers from the finale and the entire season below. 
Jeffrey Wright (as Bernard Lowe) with what will become Maeve's Naked Android Army on Westworld.  Important to note that Bernard is himself a sentient android
Paranoid androids 
• “Consciousness isn’t a journey upward, but a journey inward.” So describes the maze, but it also justifies the plotting and structure this season, which allowed for multiple timelines and kept circling back to discoveries characters made about themselves rather than the wide-open adventures we expect from Westerns.

• In the end, Sizemore winds up recalling Donald Kaufman in Adaptation, the self-lacerating comedy by the writer Charlie Kaufman about his failure to turn Susan Orlean’s “The Orchid Thief” into a movie. Nicolas Cage plays both Charlie the struggling writer and his twin brother, Donald, a hack screenwriter who’s having no trouble turning out scripts for gobs of money. Sizemore has Donald’s gift for the crowd-pleasing cliché, but Ford proves to be the true narrative maestro.
Ben Barnes, as Logan with iPhone checking out his new Westworld outfit

• The Red Wedding-esque climax wraps up an episode that embraces the bloody, HBO-style thrills the show had been eschewing for so long. It would have been morally irresponsible to fetishize the violations against the hosts, but with the tables turned, it’s possible to feel good about the humans getting their just desserts. “The Bicameral Minds” plays that to the hilt, particularly when Hector and Armistice bust up the lab.

• Wonderful nod to Michael Crichton’s original film as Maeve comes upon a floor of ancient Japanese warriors that we can presume, based on the initials “SW,” is “Samurai World.” Mr. Crichton’s “Westworld” has three different Delos theme parks that go haywire at once: Westworld, Medieval World and Roman World. Maybe we’ll learn more about Samurai World or other parks in Season 2, but it’s a clever tease for now.

• The last of the player-piano Radiohead covers turns out to be “Exit Music (For a Film).” The first four words of the lyrics are perfectly apt: “Wake / From your sleep.”
Canaveral National Seashore's Apollo Beach
What really happened to Elsie and Stubbs? 
and is Stubbs related to Thor?
First, Luke Hemsworth who plays the currently missing Ashley Stubbs on Westworld is the older and much shorter brother of Chris and Liam Hemsworth.  At 5'9" he is 6" shorter than Chris Hemsworth (aka Thor)  and 3 years older.  He is 10 years older than Liam Hemsworth (The Hunger Games' Gale Hawthorne) and again at least 6" shorter than his much younger brother.  They are age 36, 33, and 26 respectively.

For a series that delights in showing the deaths of their characters over and over— and over and over— it’s suspicious that neither Elsie the programmer (Shannon Woodward) nor Stubbs (the park’s head of security played by Luke Hemsworth) received an onscreen death. Instead, both vanished somewhere off in the Westworld wasteland and noticeably absent from the finale.
Early December 2016 Sunset on the St Johns River at Highbanks, Debary

Elsie (Shannon Woodward; previously best known as Sabrina Collins on "Raising Hope") was last seen trapped in the potentially deadly headlock of her boss Bernard (Jeffrey Wright), who turned out to be a host. What happened next is lost in his erased memories. Subsequently, her employee tracker was traced to the mysterious “Sector 20,” and Stubbs was sent to investigate, unknowingly walking into the clutches of the dangerous “Ghost Nation” hosts, never to be seen again.

If the show’s creators Jonathan Nolan and Lisa Joy could concoct several devilish ways to continuously off Teddy and Maeve, surely they could’ve devised a demise for Elsie and Stubbs. Unless that’s the point. The “Westworld” Internet sleuths have already combed through the newly “destroyed” Delos Inc. website and uncovered audio files that sound like they’re from Elsie, and that she’s trying to communicate her location.

Rodrigo Santoro as the oft-leather clad or naked Hector Escaton



When does “Westworld” take place? 
Also floating around in the online “Westworld” ether is a potential clue as to how far into the future the show is set. Thanks to a bit of “leaked” camera footage buried deep in the rabbit hole of HBO’s online marketing for “Westworld,” a date has been revealed. Footage showcasing Maeve’s bloody attempt at escaping the park has the date June 15, 2052, marked in the corner. If this Reddit online commenter’s marketing intel is to be believed “Westworld’s” main storyline is set 36 years in the future.


Logan (Ben Barnes) is tied up by William (Jimmi Simpson). (John P. Johnson / HBO)

Where did Logan end up? 
. . .and How and Why Did William Take His Clothes?
Last we saw of Logan (Ben Barnes), the angry head of the Delos company, he was inexplicably stripped naked, tied to his horse and set loose on the edge of Westworld by his soon-to-be brother-in-law William. It was a truly odd exit.

Did he die from exposure? Would the park really let a guest in their care die naked on a horse?

Picture a miserable horse trotting through the season finale, a skeleton strapped to its back. Now that certainly would have cleared things up, and it's in show canon since the horses are also hosts, thus immortal. Logan, however, is not.

Alas, Logan’s whereabouts are thus far unknown, and if he is alive that means he could return in the current timeline with a new, older actor. 
Ben Barnes, Wet Leather, by Lesa Amoore

Will Ford make it to Season 2? 
“Westworld’s” time-juggling narratives makes it a snap to bring back just about any character through a flashback. But that’s a little too easy. Instead, we offer this slightly more elaborate theory: Remember the secret field office where Dr. Robert Ford was tinkering with offline hosts unbeknownst to the board? There was a host brewing inside the milky vat in the very room where Theresa met her untimely end. Who was that host supposed to be and, more importantly, could that host be Ford’s attempt at a second chance?

The creator has already dabbled in bringing back the dead with Bernard, who was a host recreation of park co-creator Arnold. So why not go the extra step and try and rebuild his own consciousness inside the mind of a host? The idea of humans using the hosts for immortality wasn’t aggressively tackled in the first season of “Westworld,” but seems like a logical extension of the concept.
James Marsden as the sometimes naked Teddy Flood, on Westworld
Looking very fit at 43

Bernard did struggle with the preprogrammed memories of his human counterpart’s dead son. Ultimately, deciding to keep Arnold’s pain helped him “learn from his mistakes.” But while Arnold’s memories are programmed into Bernard, the host is conscious that these feelings are not truly his own.

If Ford was going to come back from the dead as a host, that would put immortality on the table, but would it be Ford? Or would it be a coded, self-aware echo of Ford? And what sort of inner turmoil would that stir up inside this new creature? Think of all the hot takes!
December, Afternoon Sun on the Halifax Harbor Marina, Daytona Beach

Also, Delos board member Charlotte Hale (Tessa Thompson) did say that, up until now, Westworld had been thinking small; perhaps everlasting digital life is the real endgame.

Who else potentially survived the finale?

It’s probably worth noting that “The Man In Black” (Ed Harris)— who who is actually an aged William gone bad, a revelation many fans predicted weeks ago— was seen taking a bullet in the arm when the hordes of nude hosts went rogue. (Or did exactly what Ford programmed them to do? You decide).

Felix (Leonardo Nam), who is going to have some serious explaining to do, also seems to have survived. As for Charlotte or writer Lee Sizemore (Simon Quarterman), we don’t yet know if they escaped the siege. 
No, they are not the same person  
Left, Rodrigo Santoro as Hector Escaton.  
Right, Ben Barnes as Logan on Westworld
What does the discovery of Samurai World mean? 
One of the many twists dropped in the finale was the discovery of a potential new park. When Maeve and her gang of robot renegades flee Westworld they stumble across a new place full of hosts clad in ancient samurai-style armor and the background logo SW. Could that be Samurai World? While the name for this new world is still unknown, it does confirm something that originated from the original Michael Crichton film: the existence of different theme parks. Fingers crossed for the other movie-inspired parks including Roman World, Medieval World and Futureworld.

Also, when Maeve was headed out on the guest train, she was informed that her host child was being kept in “Park 1 Sector 15 Zone 3.” One could make the assumption that labeling something “Park 1” usually means there’s more than one park.


Maeve (Thandie Newton) gets closer to her freedom. (John P. Johnson / HBO)
Who programmed Maeve to escape? 
The biggest surprise from the finale was Ford’s secret desire to free his creations, which made him seem less like the evil lunatic this series has threaded since the pilot. Of course, he’s still a murdering psychopath who built a sexual assault theme park— despite knowing that his creations had, or could achieve, consciousness— but the last episode tried to right a few of his wrongs by exposing his plans for a robot revolt.

But if Ford engineered the escape plan, how much of this is about true sentience? We know for certain that the hosts have memories from past iterations of their characters; this was the entire purpose of Arnold’s maze. That being said, if Ford was the one who programmed Maeve’s exit from the park, does that rob her of her own organic desire to be free? Was the purpose of Maeve’s violent exit merely to distract from the bloodbath of Delos’ board executions?

And also, doesn’t unleashing an army of murderous robots still kind of make him an evil lunatic?

The bigger questions remain: Are Maeve’s thoughts entirely her own? Is her mission just beginning? And what’s next? Will she jump from park to park looking for her lost host child? Or will she take part in the new narrative that Ford built, the uprising at Westworld?

'Westworld' soundtrack 'No Surprises' by Radiohead performed by Ramin Djawadi
The Music of Westworld:
What music will the player piano crank out next year? 
“Westworld’s” TV totem, the rickety player piano hit Soundgarden’s “Black Hole Sun,” The Cure’s “A Forest,” Nine Inch Nails’ “Something I Can Never Have,” Amy Winehouse’s “Back to Black,” and (if you had any doubt that this show was spearheaded by a pack of late thirty- to fortysomethings) it also offered versions of Radiohead’s “No Surprises,” “Fake Plastic Trees” and “Exit Music.” If the second season doesn’t have at least one musical cameo from Beck or Wilco, then this isn’t the old West robot show we’ve spent the last two months being confused by.
What happened to Peter Abernathy?

Actor Louis Herthum gave a brilliant performance as malfunctioning host Peter Abernathy, who was abruptly filed to cold storage after delivering the now-signature slogan, “these violent delights have violent ends.” Peter’s host body was allegedly brought online by the Delos board to smuggle Ford’s code out of Westworld.

When Sizemore went to retrieve Peter, he was gone, as were all the other hosts who “woke” in the park who formed the robot army that would assist Dolores in her revolt. But Peter was not specifically accounted for in this onslaught. So what happened to Peter? Is he still reprogrammed, and is there a walking gold mine of code sauntering around the real world? Does Peter know how to access this new information?
What was that post-credit scene? 
The snake-tattooed bandit played by Ingrid Bolsø Berdal was seen with her arm still stuck in the security door. So she literally ripped her own arm off and went after the truly terrible Westworld security. (Seriously, their aim was “A-Team” bad guys bad). Fun fact, the character Berdal plays has a name and it’s… wait for it… Armistice.

What do we actually know about the second season?

A few second season ideas were dropped from the brains behind the “Westworld” operation shortly after the finale aired. “If the first season was defined by control, the second season is defined by chaos,” co-creator and executive producer Jonathan Nolan said in a mini-episode breakdown on HBO. “I think that’s part of what we come to understand Ford has been planning all along.”
Fiery December Afternoon Sun, Florida
with Red Fire-Spike (Odontonema cuspidatum)

The first season of Westworld was fairly maintained to several tight story loops the hosts were imprisoned inside, so it should be exciting to see a bit of disarray in their world. But Nolan isn’t getting too candid with the answers, instead he offers more questions. “Ford has set in motion what he thinks is a plan,” he continued in the after-series special. “The nature of that plan is something we explore in the second season, what his intentions are. Are they to let Dolores and the other hosts escape? Are they simply to teach the human guests a lesson?”

Executive producer J.J. Abrams offered up something even more vague for Season 2: “What happens at the dawn of consciousness?” Abrams asked. “What happens when you begin to actually wake up?” What, indeed?
Mississippi River Delta
Boothville-Venice, Louisiana
as seen on one of my flights back from west coast this fall

More on Westworld:

Dec. 5, 2016
‘Westworld’ Season 1, Episode 9: You Broke My Mind
Maeve continues to move forward while everyone else moves inward.
By SCOTT TOBIAS


Nov. 28, 2016
‘Westworld’ Season 1, Episode 8: Maeve Plays God
For one sequence, the show offers a taste of the delicious (and fun) entertainment that might have been.
By SCOTT TOBIAS


Nov. 21, 2016
‘Westworld’ Season 1, Episode 7: They Cannot See
The truth regarding a popular fan theory comes to light, as do the lengths Dr. Ford will travel to protect his vision.
By SCOTT TOBIAS

Nov. 14, 2016
‘Westworld’ Season 1, Episode 6: The Tipping Point
The world as Maeve understood it is gone, as the show again forces viewers to reflect on how their own lives are constructed, too.
By SCOTT TOBIAS


Nov. 7, 2016
‘Westworld’ Season 1, Episode 5: The Search for Meaning
Regardless of your theories, there is at least one thing that William and the Man in Black have in common.
By SCOTT TOBIAS

Oct. 31, 2016
‘Westworld’ Season 1, Episode 4: Truth and Consequences
For wised-up androids like Maeve, freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose.
By SCOTT TOBIAS

Oct. 24, 2016
‘Westworld’ Season 1, Episode 3: Don’t Make Arnold’s Mistake
As some of the hosts go further astray, Dr. Ford makes a reminder to remember what — not who — they really are.
By SCOTT TOBIAS

Oct. 17, 2016
‘Westworld’ Season 1, Episode 2: If You Can’t Tell, Does It Matter?
What does the park in “Westworld” reveal about the people who visit?
By SCOTT TOBIAS


Oct. 7, 2016
‘Westworld’ Series Premiere: Life Finds a Way
Dense with information and emotion, the series premiere of “Westworld” indicates that we’re in for a pretty grim show.
By SCOTT TOBIAS

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