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Florida's Butterfly Season

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Zebra Longwing on Mexican Sunflower with Coleus Background

The Zebra Longwing (Heliconius charitonius) is the state butterfly of Florida. Aptly named, it is quickly identified by the yellow-white stripes and extremely elongated wings. It rarely spends long periods of time in open, sunny locations but is an abundant visitor to shadier gardens and yards. Adults have slow, graceful flight, and adeptly maneuver through dense vegetation. A member of a primarily tropical genus, it cannot endure prolonged exposure to freezing temperatures. Adults are extremely long-lived and may survive for several months.
Flight With A Purpose
For at least a decade we've known that butterflies do not flutter aimlessly around the garden but instead follow precise flightpaths.  Cant, Smith, Reynolds and Osbourne (Tracking butterfly flight paths across the landscape with harmonic radar.  Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 22 April 2005) were likely the first to use tiny tracking devices (harmonic radar) on butterflies.

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Gulf Fritillary (Agraulis vanillae) on Zinnia
Prior to Cant et al. butterfly mobility had been predominantly studied using visual observations and mark-recapture experiments.  Cant et al., by attaching light-weight radar transponders to butterfly's thorax proved that there is some method to butterfly flight madness.  
Long-tailed Skipper (Urbanus proteus) on Mexican Sunflower

The Long-tailed Skipper is one of the most common and distinctive skippers in Florida and resembles a small swallowtail. Adults have a quick, low flight. They are fond of flowers and often abundant in home gardens. The larvae construct individual shelters on the host by folding over small sections of a leaf with silk. Older larvae may use the entire leaf or connect several leaves together. The butterfly is migratory, and moves southward each fall to overwinter in warmer portions of the state.
Cant et al.'s work provided science with information on the insects' flightpaths, speeds and foraging behavior—some of which could guide butterfly conservation measures.  This knowledge makes photographing butterflies no less difficult.
Polydamus Swallowtail (Battus polydamus) on Dotted Horsemint
The images seen here are the best of hundreds taken over the course of a recent afternoon.  Hundreds of shots revealed a few good, clear, images.  The butterflies will not cooperate and sit still on a blossom long enough to get that perfect shot the first time.
Zebra Longwing on Spanish Needles (Bidens alba)
Straight Flight
Subsequent research indicates that butterflies exhibit at least two distinct types of flight pattern: fast, straight movement and slower, non-linear movement.



During straight flight, butterflies zip along at about 9½ feet/second (2.9m/s). During slower type of flight, the insects forage for nectar from flowers and fly in loops, with a speed averaging 5¼ feet/second (1.6m/s).
 A garden full of butterflies wouldn't be complete without butterfly caterpillars.   In these these kind of otherworldly images Pipevine Swallowtail Caterpillars (Battus philenor) feast on the leaves of Dutchman's Pipe Vine (Aristolochia elegans).
 Below, in sunlight and shadows I think they look particularly alien.
Gone Loopy
It’s not just poetic alliteration that makes the pat phrase “a butterfly fluttered by” so appropriate. The insects, although not always that speedy, often take a flight path that involves so many erratic dips and turns that they almost look out of control. But it’s not because they can’t do any better: Such unpredictable flight is how butterflies evade birds and other predators. However, most butterflies are brightly colored, which would seem to counter their evasiveness by making them easier to spot and track.   
Why do butterflies flaunt their visibility?
A butterfly’s ability to evade and its blatant pigmentation go hand in hand.

Flying in loops seems also to perform an orientation function, helping the insects identify flowers or hibernation spots.

Eisner and Jantzen (Hindwings are unnecessary for flight but essential for execution of normal evasive flight in Lepidopetera, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science vol. 105, no. 43, July 2008), explored this oxymoronic butterfly biology and found that the bright colors and patters along with erratic flight were survival mechanisms evolved to confuse predators.
Butterflies are able to identify and avoid unsuitable habitats such as dense trees from up to 218 yards (200m). They seem able to identify suitable foraging habitats from about 109 yards (100m).

Knowing how butterflies choose where to go and how they use and feed in the landscape is very useful to conservationists. . .to the photographer. . . not so much.  Its is, however, fascinating that someone else has answered some of these questions.
More Reading on this subject:






Solving the Puzzles of Mimicry in Nature
A mimicry ring among African Butterflies

Perhaps no destination has attracted and inspired more great naturalists than Brazil. Charles Darwin, on his epic voyage on the H.M.S. Beagle, first made landfall at Bahia in 1832; two fellow Englishmen, Alfred Russel Wallace and Henry Walter Bates, arrived at Pará in 1848. Wallace roamed the Amazon for four years, and the indefatigable Bates for 11.

In 1852, a naturalist named Fritz Müller arrived from Germany. Much less known today, Müller, unlike his English contemporaries, moved to Brazil with his wife and young child and had no intention of ever returning to Prussia. A freethinker who refused to swear an oath to God required for his medical graduation, Müller traded a medical career in Europe for a mud-floor hut at the edge of virgin forest in the Blumenau colony in Santa Catarina.

While Darwin and Wallace would conceive of the theory of evolution by natural selection, its acceptance was aided greatly by Bates and Müller. And thanks to Bates and Müller, perhaps no group of animals contributed more to the early growth of evolutionary science than butterflies. Their ideas continue to inspire naturalists today and have led to surprising new insights into how evolution works.

Both men found Brazil ablaze with colorful butterflies. Bates noticed among his collections certain species whose bright wing patterns closely resembled those of other butterfly families in the area. In puzzling out why one species would mimic another, he realized that harmless butterflies were mimicking noxious species that were unpalatable to birds and lizards, and therefore not attacked by predators.

Only a few years after Darwin published “On the Origin of Species,” Bates suggested that this sort of mimicry— now called “Batesian” — was timely proof of the principle of natural selection.

While Bates was a full-time collector, Müller was initially occupied with more basic concerns. For his first few years in Brazil, he eked out a living as a farmer, raising chickens and pigs and trapping game, while enduring floods and fending off hostile indigenous tribes, jaguars and tropical diseases. As the only person in his settlement with medical training, it fell to him to attend to neighbors who had been impaled with five-foot-long arrows.

As his family expanded, eventually to six daughters, Müller moved to a coastal town to teach mathematics, natural history, and even some physics and chemistry. His position gave him a chance to explore more intellectual pursuits, and there he discovered Darwin’s new theories.

“Origin” so transformed Müller’s understanding of nature that he was inspired to write his own book, “Für Darwin,” that presented facts and arguments in favor of his theory, including Müller’s own observations on Brazilian plants and animals. The two men struck up a lively and warm correspondence that would last 17 years, until Darwin’s death. Darwin referred to Müller as the “prince of observers,” and although they never met, Müller considered Darwin a second father.

Müller’s crucial observation occurred after he returned to living in the forest. It was a new twist on mimicry. He noticed that unpalatable butterflies were also mimicking other species of unpalatable butterflies in the same area. If they were already unpalatable, he wondered, what added advantage was there to mimicking other species?

It dawned on him that unpalatable mimics would enjoy strength in numbers: Their unpalatability had to be learned by naïve predators, and mimicking species would share the cost of those lessons, whereas a uniquely patterned unpalatable species would bear the full cost. He showed through simple algebra that two or more unpalatable species would each gain an advantage through a common pattern.

Natural selection thus explained why different species’ wing patterns would converge. But how were such similar but complex wing color patterns generated by different species? That was a much more difficult question, and its answer eluded scientists for nearly 150 years, until an international team of researchers recently revealed mimicry’s innermost secrets.

The most striking and famous examples of what is still called “Müllerian mimicry” involve Heliconius butterflies in South and Central America. In many instances, the wing patterns of different species in the same area are remarkably similar. And even more remarkable, each species may exhibit several different wing patterns, each specific to a given area. The wing patterns are so similar that it is hard to tell species apart from even a short distance — and that is the point.

There are two fundamentally different ways Müllerian mimicry could evolve: Either each species independently evolved mutations that led to very similar wing patterns, or patterning genes were exchanged among species.

Several genes controlling the production of the wing patterns have now been identified, enabling researchers to distinguish between these alternatives. The answer? Both mechanisms have been at work.

By analyzing the DNA sequences in two mimicking Heliconius species distributed across South America, researchers could determine that each species had independently evolved up to 20 different patterns that were nearly identical in each species. But in more closely related mimicking species, they found that color-controlling genes had been exchanged.

These discoveries are equally interesting. It is astonishing that so many patterns could be independently generated and replicated in different species. And it is surprising to have species swapping genes in the Amazon. After all, the inability to breed successfully with other groups has long been an operational definition of species.

But as we peer into genomes, we continue to detect evidence of past interbreeding— between Darwin’s finches, for example, and even between Neanderthals and our own species, Homo sapiens. Even if such interspecies matings are rare, a gene that confers a strong advantage, like mimicry, can spread quickly through a population.

One of my favorite observations about scientific progress was offered by the Nobel physicist Jean Baptiste Perrin, who said that the key to any advance was to be able “to explain the complex visible by some simple invisible.” After being shrouded in mystery for more than a century, the revelation of the invisible genes that have generated such diversity is an exquisite example of the maxim.


We've Read:
After accepting that his football career was over, Tebow signed a minor league contract with the Mets last September to begin his unlikely transition.  His big league dream is the longest of longshots—but remember that playoff win against the Steelers?  Wherever this strange baseball odyssey takes him, Tim Tebow is convinced its all part of a much bigger plan.


When Will Florida's Rainy Season Begin?

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Floridian's are wondering when or if we'll get a rainy season as even huge lakes like Lake George (above) start to run dry.  For years the rainy seasons have been unpredictable or absent.  2017 has been the hottest and driest winter ever so the drought pains are widespread.

Climatologically, this is the week for the start of the Wet Season.  Because of rapid climate change, historical data may be irrelevant.  Regardless, looking at past data is currently the best scientific way to predict future weather.

Formula for Finding the Beginning
of Rainy Season

Warm Nighttime Temperatures (67-70° F)
+
High Humidities (dew points in the 70°s)
=
Rainy Season
Normally around June 1
Water level and flow meters at the Astor station on the St. Johns River currently report that the depth is .48 feet away from the channel.  The flow at Astor is virtually non-existent.  At the other end of Lake George there are tidal influences from the Atlantic Ocean pushing brackish water south toward the lake twice a day.

Beginning of the Wet Season for Orlando
Using data for the period 1949-2001 to look for the median date (half earlier, half later) when minimum temperatures were in the 67-70° range (19-21° C) and dew points were in the same range one can estimate the start of Orlando's Rainy Season.  These dates almost always coincide with the onset of the  Rainy Season.  This combination of high nighttime temperatures and high humidities (dew points) usually occurs a few days before the start of frequent showers and thunderstorms.

Based on those data the start of the Rainy Season

 for Orlando is:  May 27

Beginning of the Rainy Season for Daytona Beach
For Daytona Beach data from 1935-2001 showed that there were more frequent intrusions of drier air after the apparent beginning of the Wet Season. Nevertheless, 

Based on those data the start of the wet season

 for Daytona Beach is also May 27.
A very low Wekiva River at Katie's Landing

It must be noted that a purely objective analysis is not possible because the exact onset of the Wet Season is difficult to determine in some years.  There were classic years when dew points and minimum temperatures rose to around 70° in mid/late May, a rainy period ensued shortly thereafter and continued through the summer.  Some years saw the start of showers/storms in late May, followed by several weeks of little/no rain, and then the onset of frequent rains once again in late June.  Notably in 1998 neither occurred until late into July.  It was in 1998 that much of Central Florida burned in wildfires.
This year dew points and nighttime temperatures are already high but a thermal inversion and semi-permanent high pressure have precluded any rainfall.  A series of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through Florida the last week of May which should bring beneficial rains but not what we would consider rainy season rains (from sea breeze thunderstorms).

Me and my shadow, on another blazing hot May day on the shores of Lake George, Florida's 2nd largest lake.

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Attempts to objectively pick the date when dew points/minimum temperatures remained above 70° degrees failed, since many years had brief periods of readings in the 60°s through the month of June.  This would have resulted in the median date for the onset of the Wet Season not correlating with a reasonable person's perception, and being much too late in the season. 

Using these criteria the past few nights would qualify as precursors to the Rainy Season.  Currently dew points are around 73° (23° C) and temperatures are in the mid-70°s (24° C) at night making for very humid overnight conditions.  However, current forecasts call for an extended period of dry following the passage of the aforementioned shortwave troughs so real rainy season?  May come in June or may be delayed further.
Precipitable Water and Precipitation Rate
Can Determine the Start of the Rainy Season
Another method for determining the start of the Wet Season is inspection of two variables, Precipitable Water and Precipitation Rate.  Using the 1960-2000 time period the areal average of these parameters was attained for a one degree of latitude by one degree area that covered Cape Canaveral, Orlando and Daytona Beach.  There are approximately 69 miles in 1° of latitude. 

A sharp upward trend in precipitable water starts historically about May 20.  Precipitation Rates rise significantly beginning about May 22.  This corresponds rather well with the median dates determined by looking at minimum temperatures and dew points.  The small differences in the dates determined by the two methods is likely due to the different time periods examined.
RAINY SEASON DATA
UPDATED THROUGH 2010 REVEAL A 
SLIGHTLY LATER START DATE 
FOR DAYTONA'S WET SEASON
ORLANDO'S WET SEASON BEGINS MAY 27

Onset of the Wet Season at Daytona Beach and Orlando, Florida(Updated through 2010)
 Daytona Beach Median Date = May 29
Orlando Median Date = May 27
 
Daytona Beach
Orlando
1935
6/11
 
1936
5/20
 
1937
6/4
 
1938
5/23
 
1939
6/13
 
1940
5/29
 
1941
6/5
 
1942
5/29
 
1943
5/15
 
1944
6/4
 
1945
6/18
 
1946
5/12
 
1947
5/21
 
1948
5/23
 
1949
5/28
5/30
1950
6/4
5/27
1951
6/4
6/6
1952
5/17
5/17
1953
6/4
6/2
1954
5/25
5/27
1955
6/10 *
6/11 *
1956
5/24
5/25
1957
5/11
5/11
1958
5/21
5/22
1959
5/12
5/17
1960
6/2
5/26
1961
6/7
6/7
1962
6/1 *
5/21
1963
5/19
5/21
1964
5/31
5/30
1965
6/4
5/29
1966
5/3
5/5
1967
6/2
6/3
1968
5/24
5/24
1969
5/14
5/14
1970
5/24
5/24
1971
6/7
6/3
1972
5/8
5/7
1973
5/24
5/24
1974
5/12
5/12
1975
5/14
5/9
1976
5/22
5/23
1977
5/23
5/24
1978
5/31
6/1
1979
5/30
5/30
1980
5/14
5/15
1981
5/26
5/26
1982
5/20
5/21
1983
5/29
5/30
1984
5/23, 6/11
5/22, 6/11
1985
6/8
5/20
1986
5/31
6/2
1987
5/9
5/9
1988
6/5
6/5
1989
6/4
5/28
1990
6/3
5/27
1991
5/13
5/13
1992
5/27
5/27
1993
6/12
6/12
1994
5/29
5/28
1995
5/20
5/20
1996
5/21
5/21
1997
5/19
5/19
1998
7/6
7/6 *
1999
5/27
5/27
2000
6/22
6/11
2001
5/30
5/22
2002
6/7
6/6
2003
6/2
6/2
2004
6/1
6/3
2005
5/30
5/30
2006
6/11
6/11
2007
6/6
6/6
2008
6/10
6/9
2009
5/17
5/17
2010
5/30
5/30
We've Read:
East central Florida experiences seasons that differ from most of the remainder of the country. Rather than the four seasons of winter, spring, summer and fall, east central Florida exhibits a distinct Wet (warm) Season and Dry (cooler) Season. This duality of seasons is similar to the Monsoon or Wet-Dry climates that other regions of the world experience. 

The Wet Season 
The Wet Season is typically considered to begin in the latter part of May and resembles "summer" across much of the remainder of the country. Warm temperatures (mid to upper 80s) begin earlier, but usually do not coincide with the beginning of frequent summer-like rains. The primary difference between summers in east central Florida and those at higher latitudes is that the heat and humidity are relentless (i.e. there are no synoptic scale fronts that bring significant cooling and drying). Though it does not rain every day during the summer, the frequency of rainfall usually begins to increase in late May. The start of the Wet Season is occasionally delayed until June and in rare cases, even as late as early July (e.g. 1998). 

The Dry Season 
The Dry Season usually begins in October as the first synoptic scale cold front brings drier and slightly cooler air into the area. This first front sometimes results in a significant rain event. Tropical systems, additional fronts and gale centers can bring periods of heavy rain through November, but the frequency of rain almost always decreases after the first significant frontal passage. 
Fronts continue to push through the area during the traditional "meteorological winter" months of December, January and February. Cold frontal passages during this time period will sometimes be preceded by a line of showers and thunderstorms, but the occurrence of rainfall is much less frequent than the summer. The greatest coverage of rainfall during the winter months often occurs when one of these fronts moves back northward as a warm front. Some winters have more frequent frontal passages, which can result in much above normal rainfall. The most recent occurrence was the 1997-1998 winter when a strong El Nino resulted in significant severe weather episodes and flooding across the Florida peninsula, followed by severe drought the summer of 1998.

For east central Florida, late February through March might be the time period that most closely resembles typical Spring weather in the higher latitudes. Large swings in temperatures often occur along with occasional severe weather episodes, but rainfall is usually infrequent. April is often the driest month of the year as fronts become weaker and yield less rainfall, yet manage to pass through the area and reinforce the dry and stable air mass. Temperatures warm through May with average maximum readings reaching the upper 80s by the end of the month. Rainfall frequency increases compared to April, with the most notable increase usually beginning late in the month.
Climate Classification of East Central Florida?
Hard to Determine. . .but. . .
Cw = best fit
The Glossary of Meteorology defines a monsoon climate as one in which the wind flow reverses itself during the course of the year and there is a distinct winter dry season. Data indicate that there is a duality of seasons for east central Florida, with the cooler season being significantly drier than summer. Additionally, the mean wind during most of the east central Florida Wet Season is southeast (tropical) while the mean wind during much of the Dry Season is northwest to north (continental). 

The Wet Season is marked by a daily inland progression of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sea breezes as a low pressure trough develops across the peninsula due to surface heating. Showers and thunderstorms occur most days along the sea breezes and become numerous when these boundaries collide. While the low pressure trough that produces this sea breeze circulation is not on the same scale as the large heat lows that drive monsoon circulations elsewhere in the world, there is enough regularity to suggest some similarity. Some climatologists refer to the daily sea breeze circulation as a "diurnal monsoon." 

The classic monsoon climate, of which India is the best example, has a "hot season" prior to the onset of the rains. Though this does not occur every year in east central Florida (and hence is not climatological), the hottest temperatures of the season sometimes occur in May or June, prior to when rainfall frequency increases. In fact, the hottest month on record in Melbourne occurred in June 1998 when the area was in the midst of a prolonged dry spell. India also has a secondary maximum in temperature right after the Rainy Season. This does not occur in east central Florida since there is a strong marine influence, and temperatures are modified in September/October as the prevailing wind flow becomes more easterly. 

The Koppen Climate Classification System designates north/central Florida as a Subtropical Humid climate (Cf) with a year-round distribution of rainfall. This places east central Florida in the same climate classification as Memphis, Tennessee. Clearly, Memphis and Melbourne should not have the same climate classification. 

The Cw classification is a Subtropical Humid Wet-Dry climate with a monsoonal influence (dry winter). This classification requires the climatologically wettest month to have ten times more rainfall than the driest month. East central Florida does not meet this requirement since the driest month averages around 2 inches, and there is no location in the state which averages 20 inches in a month! An alternate to the 10:1 ratio is that 70% of the yearly rainfall must occur during the six warm season months. Rainfall for Daytona Beach during the months of May-October is about 64% of the yearly total, while Orlando and Melbourne were 68%, and Vero Beach was 66%.

So it can be seen that east central Florida does not meet the strict definition of a Cw climate. However, during any given year, there is most always a month that is ten times wetter than another in east central Florida, since rainfall less than one inch is quite common during at least one of the Dry Season months. In fact, examination of Orlando rainfall from 1927-2001 showed that there were only 9 years when the 10:1 ratio was not met. This is the nature of statistics in which the average or "normal" conditions mask the extremes. 

The Cs classification (Mediterranean Climate) occurs where there are dry summers and the wettest winter month has at least 3 times as much rain as the driest summer month. The climatologically wettest month in east central Florida has a little greater than 3 times the rainfall of the driest month. Therefore, east central Florida also does not meet the strict definition of a Cf climate. 

The southern tip of Florida is an Aw (Tropical Wet-Dry) climate. The requirement for this designation is that the coolest month averages above 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit. East central Florida does not meet this requirement. However it is interesting to note that the rainfall requirements to receive a Tropical Wet-Dry designation are far less stringent when compared to the 10:1 ratio for the Cw (Subtropical Humid Wet-Dry) classification. The requirements are only that there must be a "marked seasonal rhythm" of rainfall and at least one month must have less than 2.4 inches. Both of these rainfall requirements are met for most of east central Florida. 

A rainfall formula is used within the Tropical (A) classification to determine whether the climate is Monsoon (Am) or Wet-Dry (Aw). According to this formula, rainfall in east central Florida does not meet the Monsoon classification, but it does fit that of a Tropical Wet Dry (Aw) climate. As noted above, rainfall requirements for Humid Subtropical Wet-Dry (Cw) are not achieved in east central Florida. Therefore, the Wet-Dry sub-categories of the A and C climate classifications appear to have a discrepancy with regard to the rainfall requirements. 

So while it cannot be technically stated that this area has a Monsoon or a Wet-Dry climate, most years exhibit a monsoonal influence with distinct wet and dry seasons. The east central Florida climate fits more closely with the Cw classification than it does with Cf.
We've Watched:
Ok, yes, we've watched American Gods mainly because of all the hype around the gay, arab, male sex scene.  We thought it was going to be something really provocative.  Most of it was shot from some distance with fancy camera angles and lighting, and there was no visible penetration.  So we're not so sure what all the hype was about.  Sure, it was progressive to show that two Arab men could choose to have intercourse. . . even if one was a fire god and the other one somehow usurped him?  We really can't figure out this show.  But, if you're into fantasy, this is the show for you.  What others said about the sex scene below kind of seems a bit naive to us.

We have to ad the campaign posters for this show are great, we only wish the show came with some sort of guide so we might understand what we're watching.
When American Gods showrunner (the overall creative manager of the show) Bryan Fuller first saw a cut of the epic gay-sex scene in Sunday’s episode, he didn’t mince words. “I was like, ‘Okay, unless he has a 12-inch, candy-cane cock and can fuck around corners, his dick’s not getting in him,” Fuller recalled. “So you guys need to go back and figure out where holes are.”

American Gods is now credited with airing the most graphic gay sex scene in network television history which featured two Muslim men.  The intense four-minute scene saw actors Mousa Kraish and Omid Abtahi having sex in Abtahi's character's hotel room.   They were both shown naked, their penises in full view.   Abhtahi plays Salim, an Omani trinket salesman, and Kraish plays a Jinn, a nameless mythical creature from Arabian and Islamic mythology in the Starz show.

Sunday's episode saw them meet when the Jinn or Ifrit, as his character is also known, picked Salim up in his NYC taxi.   They retired to Salim's hotel room and where, after having a shower, the Ifrit dropped his towel to reveal a full erection.   Once in the throes of passion on a hotel bed, the actors bodies were transported by CGI to a mythical world before the audience's eyes.


American Gods, Starz’s divine adaptation of the 2001 novel by Neil Gaiman, has been pushing boundaries since its first episode, which featured bodies being torn to shreds and a fertility goddess who consumes lovers with her vagina. But even by the show’s already-elevated standards, Sunday’s third episode, “Head Full of Snow,” was one that viewers will not soon forget. In an interlude taken directly from the book, a lonely Omani salesman, Salim (Omid Abtahi), meets a New York cab driver who also happens to be a Jinn (Mousa Kraish), a fiery-eyed mythological figure from Middle Eastern and Islamic folklore. The two displaced souls bond over their shared displacement and memories of home, tentatively touching hands in the taxi, and then they head back to Salim’s hotel room to have some of the hottest sex ever seen on television. (Quite literally, since one of them ejaculates like a flamethrower.)

The groundbreaking sequence between two gay Arab men is one of the strongest moments yet on the Starz fantasy series.

La Florida and The Fountain of Youth

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De Leon Springs in Volusia County is a 2nd magnitude spring with a flow of about 19 million gallons of 72° F water per day.

On April 2, 1513, Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de León and his crew became the first recorded Europeans to set eyes on Florida. Legend holds that they made this discovery while searching for the Fountain of Youth, a magical water source supposedly capable of reversing the aging process and curing sickness. A closer look, however, reveals that the fountain likely provided little to no motivation for their voyage. In fact, no surviving documents from the time, including letters from Ponce de León himself, ever mention such a fountain. Only later did Spanish and U.S. writers connect the two, thereby turning Ponce de León into a poster boy for gullibility.
Tales of sacred, restorative waters existed well before the birth of Spanish conquistador Juan Ponce de León around 1474. Alexander the Great, for example, was said to have come across a healing “river of paradise” in the fourth century B.C., and similar legends cropped up in such disparate locations as the Canary Islands, Japan, Polynesia and England. During the Middle Ages, some Europeans even believed in the mythical king Prester John, whose kingdom allegedly contained a fountain of youth and a river of gold. “You could trace that up until today,” said Ryan K. Smith, a history professor at Virginia Commonwealth University. “People are still touting miracle cures and miracle waters.”
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Spanish sources asserted that the Taino Indians of the Caribbean also spoke of a magic fountain and rejuvenating river that existed somewhere north of Cuba. These rumors conceivably reached the ears of Ponce de León, who is thought to have accompanied Christopher Columbus on his second voyage to the New World in 1493. After helping to brutally crush a Taino rebellion on Hispaniola in 1504, Ponce de León was granted a provincial governorship and hundreds of acres of land, where he used forced Indian labor to raise crops and livestock. In 1508 he received royal permission to colonize San Juan Bautista (now Puerto Rico). He became the island’s first governor a year later, but was soon pushed out in a power struggle with Christopher Columbus’ son Diego.
Having remained in the good graces of King Ferdinand, Ponce de León received a contract in 1512 to explore and settle an island called Bimini. Nowhere in either this contract or a follow-up contract was the Fountain of Youth mentioned. By contrast, specific instructions were given for subjugating the Indians and divvying up any gold found. Although he may have claimed to know certain “secrets,” Ponce de León likewise never brought up the fountain in his known correspondence with Ferdinand. “What Ponce is really looking for is islands that will become part of what he hopes will be a profitable new governorship,” said J. Michael Francis, a history professor at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg. “From everything I can gather, he was not at all interested or believed that he would find some kind of miraculous spring or lake or body of water.” At least one historian suggests that perhaps Ferdinand, who had recently married a woman 35 years his junior, told Ponce de León to keep his eye out for it. But other experts dispute this.
Either way, Ponce de León set sail in March 1513 with three ships. According to early historians, he anchored off the eastern coast of Florida on April 2 and came ashore a day later, choosing the name “La Florida” in part because it was the Easter season (Pascua Florida in Spanish). Ponce de León then journeyed down through the Florida Keys and up the western coast, where he skirmished with Indians, before beginning a roundabout journey back to Puerto Rico. Along the way he purportedly discovered the Gulf Stream, which proved to be the fastest route for sailing back to Europe.
Eight years later, Ponce de León returned to Florida’s southwestern coast in an attempt to establish a colony, but he was mortally wounded by an Indian arrow. Just before leaving, he sent letters to his new king, Charles V, and to the future Pope Adrian VI. Once again, the explorer made no mention of the Fountain of Youth, focusing instead on his desire to settle the land, spread Christianity and discover whether Florida was an island or peninsula. No log of either voyage has survived, and no archaeological footprint has ever been uncovered.
Nonetheless, historians began linking Ponce de León with the Fountain of Youth not long after his death. In 1535 Gonzalo Fernández de Oviedo y Valdés accused Ponce de León of seeking the fountain in order to cure his sexual impotence. “He was being discredited [as] an idiot and weakling,” Smith explained. “This is machismo culture in Spain at the height of the Counter-Reformation.” The accusation is almost certainly untrue, Smith added, since Ponce de León fathered several children and was under 40 years old at the time of his first expedition.
Hernando de Escalante Fontaneda, who lived with Indians in Florida for many years after surviving a shipwreck, also derided Ponce de León in his 1575 memoir, saying it was a cause for merriment that he sought out the Fountain of Youth. One of the next authors to weigh in was Antonio de Herrera y Tordesillas, the Spanish king’s chief historian of the Indies. In 1601 he penned a detailed and widely read account of Ponce de León’s first voyage. Although Herrera only referred to the Fountain of Youth in passing, writing that it turned “old men to boys,” he helped solidify it in the public’s imagination. “They are really more entertainment than attempts to write a true history,” Francis said of these works.
The Fountain of Youth legend was now alive and well. It did not gain much traction in the United States, however, until the Spanish ceded Florida in 1819. Famous writers of the time such as Washington Irving then began portraying Ponce de León as hapless and vain. Artists also got in on the act, including Thomas Moran, who painted an oversize canvas of Ponce de León meeting with Indians. By the early 20th century, a statue of the explorer had been placed in the central plaza of Florida’s oldest city, St. Augustine, and a nearby tourist attraction pretended to be the actual Fountain of Youth. To this day, tens of thousands of visitors come every year to sample the sulfur-smelling well water. “It does not taste good,” said Smith, who worked there for four days in college. “Imagine what you would think the Fountain of Youth would taste like. It doesn’t taste like that.” Meanwhile, some grade school textbooks continue to present Ponce de León’s search for the fountain as historical fact.
In 2013, Ponce de León was back in the spotlight. In celebration of the 500th anniversary of his landing, reenactments took place in St. Augustine and Melbourne Beach, Florida, both of which claim to be the site where he first dropped anchor. There was also a Catholic mass in St. Augustine featuring a replica of the 15th-century font used to baptize him in Spain and a mass in Melbourne Beach, along with the unveiling of more statues and a commemorative stamp.
What would Ponce de León make of all this attention, not all of it positive? “My take on that is that no publicity is bad publicity,” Smith said. “He’s a household name, and maybe in the end that’s what he was looking for.”
As for DeLeon Springs State Park in Central Florida, there are no known records linking Juan Ponce de León to the spring. The name of the area was changed from Spring Garden to Ponce de Leon Springs to attract tourists after the Jacksonville, Tampa, Key West Railway was constructed in 1886. Spanish missions, however, were established in the late 1500s. The native people encountered here were referred to as the Mayaca, differing from the Timucuans in that they were fisher-hunter-gatherers, while the Timucuans were sedentary agriculturalists. The Spanish would return in 1783 after regaining the land from England (who had held it since 1763), granting land, including the spring, to William Williams in 1804. He established the first plantation, calling it "Spring Garden," where corn, cotton, and sugar cane were grown, using enslaved Africans to perform the work.
Florida became a U.S. territory in 1821. The Woodruffs owned the plantation from 1823 to 1830, selling it to Colonel Orlando Rees, who built the only water-powered sugar mill in Florida. John James Audubon visited Spring Garden in January, 1836, where he first painted the limpkin. The plantation was destroyed by the Seminole Indians in December, 1835, at the beginning of the Second Seminole War and again in 1864 by the Union troops during the American Civil War. After the mill stopped operating in 1864, the building deteriorated until only the wheel remained in the late 1800s. For some unknown reason, the mill building was reconstructed in the early 1900s. The building again fell into disrepair until it was renovated by the Schwarze family in 1961. That year they opened the Old Spanish Sugar Mill Restaurant, which has operated continuously since then.
The area attracted tourists in the 1880s after the railroad arrived, when it was advertised as a winter resort for the springs' alleged healing powers; it was called the Fountain of Youth. A hotel was built near the spring, and a small steamboat brought visitors by water. In 1925, the fourteen-room Ponce de Leon Hotel was constructed; this was the first resort with all the amenities, attracting more upscale northern clientele. In 1953, after a $1 million project, the Ponce de Leon Springs attraction opened. It featured Exotic Birds, Alligator Pens, Audubon Trail, Jungle Cruise, Hotel and Peacock Dining Room, Old Methuselah cypress tree, SCUBA School and Museum, and two waterskiing elephants--Sunshine Sally and Queenie. The attraction closed in the mid-1960s, the termite-infested hotel was torn down, and the property was operated as a private recreational park. In 1980, a local Save Our Spring group was formed, convincing the State of Florida and Volusia County to purchase the spring and 55 acres for $1 million. In June, 1982, De Leon Springs State Park opened.

We've Read:
How ultra-ripped actor Ryan Phillippe is making waves in the fitness world
He earned a black belt in taekwondo at 11.  Conquered Hollywood in Cruel Intentions at 24.  Now, at 42, Shooter star Ryan Phillippe is launching an app that could shake up the fitness world.
He says, "Whether I'm doing a movie or TV show or not, I've worked out five days a week, 1½ hours a day, for the past 20 years." 

. . . And then there's genetics. . .and. . .
he goes on to say. . .
"I and other like me have worked with some of the best trainers, nutritionists and doctors.  We're going to take all that work away for our users-men over 40 who want to stay fit and look young.  The Become app will cut through and simplify."
A Giant $120 million Noah's Ark 'replica' is just the start.  These misguided creationists have a bigger plan for recruiting new disciples 
The Kentucky ark replica park opened last summer and is on target, Ken Ham ark concept architect says, to attract more than a million visitors in the first year.  But Ham did not rest.  The 65-year-old Australian and his partners, Mike Zovath and Mark Looy, have launched an ambitious 10-to-12-year plan to re-create a walled city from the time of Noah and a 1st-century village from the time of Jesus.  Also, a Tower of Babel, concept snack shacks, a 3,200-seat amphitheater and a 10-plagues-of-Egypt thrill ride. Frogs! Fiery hail! Locusts!  Instead of building a church, Answers in Genesis is sharing its teachings through a controversial biblical theme park designed to attract believers and nonbelievers alike.  Rumors are there's even an anti-christ cathedral planned embossed with the big bold, gold TRUMP letters.

Anatomy of a Florida Heat Wave

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Though Florida is known as the Sunshine State, it could also qualify as the “Hot State.” Each summer, millions of residents and tourists enjoy the warm weather and sunny beaches, but most are unaware of just how hot it can get in Florida. Surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, the state is always influenced by tropical moisture, especially in the summer.


The Hottest State

Triple-digit temperatures are not as common as one might think in Florida. For example, Jacksonville only averages one per year, whereas the mercury climbs above 100° an average of 16 times in Dallas, a city roughly about the same distance from the equator. However, during the span of an entire year, Florida is the warmest state in the U.S.


The moderating influences of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico play a role in keeping daytime temperatures in check during the summer. Sea breeze boundaries, acting as miniature cold fronts, work their way inland and provide relief in the way of afternoon thunderstorms or cloud cover. This is why temperatures are often much warmer over inland areas where that cooler ocean air is delayed, or sometimes never makes it.

Conversely, the presence of a wind off the water at night, can lead to extremely warm overnight low temperatures. In some cases, immediately near the water, the mercury will never fall below 80° in the summer months. Water heats and cools at a much slower pace than land, which explains the opposing trends.

Florida’s humidity, to no surprise of many, is the real factor. It can sometimes add more than ten degrees to what your body feels. This is important, because the apparent temperature is what your body is forced to fight when it gets overheated.
Massive 72² mile Lake George in Northeast Florida is virtually unnavigable today due to very low water levels.  Here Channel Marker 17 guides boaters through the St. Johns River Channel in Lake George near Astor.  The water depth around the channel marker is less than 3-feet.

Anatomy of a Typical Florida Heat Wave
Typically, the semi-permanent Bermuda High Pressure Ridge builds over the Florida peninsula causing subsidence of the hot airmass (and precluding cloud formation and precipitation).  The high pressure also interferes with the formation of sea breeze fronts that might bring relief to the state with afternoon rains.  

In recent years the Bermuda High has been stronger, longer lasting and more disruptive of Florida weather patterns leaving the state hot and very dry.

What Is A Heat Wave?
A heat wave is an extended time interval of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and unusually humid weather. To be a "heat wave" such a period should last at least one day, but conventionally it lasts from several days to several weeks.  In 2017 it has lasted most of the year starting in January.  This has been the most abnormally hot and dry (but humid) year since the Dust Bowl.


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What Is The Heat Index?
The heat index is the "APPARENT TEMPERATURE" that describes the combined effect of high air temperature and high humidity. The higher this combination, the more difficult it is for the body to cool itself. If you work outdoors, it is critical that you remain aware of the heat index and take the appropriate precautions.  The heat index has been consistently in the ORANGE or DANGER Zone for weeks.

Memorial Day Weekend the temperatures are forecast to be near 100° with high relative humidities (in the 70% range) making the heat index average around 134° in the late afternoons.
What Actions Should You Take To Be Prepared?



NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN A PARKED CAR 
The temperature can raise to 135 degrees in less than ten minutes, which can cause death to children or pets. If you see a child or pet left unattended in a parked car, you should call 9-1-1 and alert authorities.

SLOW DOWN 
Strenuous activities should be reduced, eliminated, or rescheduled to the coolest time of the day. Individuals at risk should stay in the coolest available place, not necessarily indoors. 

DRESS FOR SUMMER 
Lightweight, light-colored clothing reflects heat and sunlight, and helps your body maintain normal temperatures. 

DRINK PLENTY OF WATER 
Your body needs water to keep cool. Drink plenty of fluids even if you don't feel thirsty. Persons who (1) have epilepsy or heart, kidney, or liver disease, (2) are on fluid restrictive diets, or (3) have a problem with fluid retention should consult a physician before increasing their consumption of fluids. 

DON'T DRINK ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 

DON'T TAKE SALT TABLETS UNLESS SPECIFIED BY A PHYSICIAN
Persons on salt restrictive diets should consult a physician before increasing their salt intake. 

STAY IN THE AC 
Air conditioning in homes and other buildings markedly reduces danger from the heat. If you cannot afford an air conditioner, spending some time each day (during hot weather) in an air conditioned environment affords some protection. 

AVOID THE SUN
Sunburn makes the job of heat dissipation that much more difficult.

Where Can You Go For Up-To-Date Info?

Temperature Outlook Map for June-August 2017
Hot, hotter, hottest?





We've Read:
The Headlines
At some point, I suspect, members of the Trump team gained knowledge of Russian hacking into Clinton emails, which would explain why Trump friend Roger Stone tweeted things like “Trust me, it will soon the Podesta’s time in the barrel.”



This kind of soft collusion, evolving over the course of the campaign without a clear quid pro quo, might also explain why there weren’t greater efforts to hide the Trump team’s ties to Russia, or to camouflage its softening of the Republican Party platform position toward Moscow.


One crucial unknown: Did Russia try to funnel money into Trump’s campaign coffers? In European elections, Russia has regularly tried to influence results by providing secret funds. I’m sure the F.B.I. is looking into whether there were suspicious financial transfers.

douche·bag·ger·y
ˈdo͞oSHˌbaɡərē/
noun
NORTH AMERICANinformal
  1. obnoxious or contemptible behavior.

    "no one gets away with that much douchebaggery without consequences"

Fawning over autocratic Arabs while lecturing (and shoving) European allies is only the latest embarrassing episode of this ill-fated "presidency."


The easy-listening white supremacists who surged out of the shadows during the presidential campaign are no less dangerous than their white power survivalist or raving skinhead counterparts. But they are hoping to rebrand themselves by wearing business clothes and attempting to sound reasonable as they advance a racist agenda. The debate about removing monuments to white supremacy that were built throughout the South a century or more ago is tailor-made for this tactic.

The white supremacist protest in Charlottesville, Va., this month over a plan to remove a statue of Robert E. Lee, the Confederate general, shows how this is likely to go. The marchers feigned civility. But a closer look shows that the protest drew on the toxic symbolism of the Third Reich in ways that few Americans would recognize.

By wielding torches in a protest staged by night, the demonstrators nodded to Nazi rallies held during the 1930s at Nuremberg, where the open flame was revered as a mystical means of purifying the Aryan spirit. They reinforced this toxic connection by chanting “blood and soil,” a Nazi-era slogan that connected German ethnic purity to cultivation of the land and, more broadly, to the notion that the “master race” was divinely entitled to confiscate the holdings of “lesser peoples,” even if it meant slaughtering them along the way.

The conservative mind, in some very visible cases, has become diseased. The movement has been seized by a kind of discrediting madness, in which conspiracy delusions figure prominently. Institutions and individuals that once served an important ideological role, providing a balance to media bias, are discrediting themselves in crucial ways. With the blessings of a president, they have abandoned the normal constraints of reason and compassion. They have allowed political polarization to reach their hearts, and harden them. They have allowed polarization to dominate their minds, and empty them.

Conspiracy theories often involve a kind of dehumanization. Human tragedy is made secondary — something to be exploited rather than mourned. The narrative of conspiracy takes precedence over the meaning of a life and the suffering of a family. A human being is made into an ideological prop and used on someone else’s stage. 

A conspiratorial approach to politics is fully consistent with other forms of dehumanization — of migrants, refugees and “the other” more generally. Men and women are reduced to types and presented as threats. They also become props in an ideological drama. They are presented as representatives of a plot involving invasion and infiltration, rather than being viewed as individuals seeking opportunity or fleeing oppression and violence. This also involves callousness, cruelty and conspiracy thinking.

In Trump’s political world, this project of dehumanization is far along. The future of conservatism now depends on its capacity for revulsion. And it is not at all clear whether this capacity still exists.
As the Trump White House works to sell its budget proposal, which was released today, there’s a revealing ideological argument emerging to justify the absolutely brutal cuts to social programs that the budget includes. Americans, the administration is saying, come in two types: the deserving and the undeserving, the taxpayers and the moochers.

You don’t have to worry about the way we’re eviscerating so many programs, because we’re only going after those people. It’s based on a fundamental lie: that there are taxpayers and then there are people who use social programs, and the two are not only not the same people, the groups don’t even overlap.

Trump took great pains to distinguish himself from Paul Ryan and limited-government Republicans by vowing no cuts to Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security, staking out an ideologically heterodox posture that likely helped boost him among working-class white voters. Obviously, that’s no longer operative.

The White House has an explanation for Trump’s reversal on Medicaid. Asked by John Harwood to explain the flip, budget director Mick Mulvaney claimed the promise was supplanted by Trump’s promise to repeal and replace Obamacare. This is nonsense: As Brian Beutler explains, Mulvaney “layered a lie of his own on top of Trump’s,” because Trump’s budget cuts to Medicaid “go hundreds of billions of dollars beyond phasing out Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion.”

I’d go further still: There are numerous Trump lies being forced out into the open right now. Trump claimed he would not touch Medicaid and simultaneously that he’d repeal Obamacare and replace it with something better for all. It was a lie for Trump to claim he wouldn’t touch Medicaid; it was a lie to suggest preserving Medicaid and repealing Obamacare were compatible; it was a lie to claim that his repeal-and-replace plan would result in better coverage for everybody. If anything, the White House’s justifications only throw the scale and audacity of these intertwined scams, lies and betrayals into even sharper relief.

Rogue Waves

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Ten-story high, near-vertical walls of frothing water. Smashed portholes and flooded cabins on the upper decks. Thirty-metre behemoths that rise up from nowhere to throw ships about like corks, only to slip back beneath the depths moments later.

Evocative descriptions of abnormally large "rogue waves" that appear out of the blue have been shared among sailors for centuries. With little or no hard evidence, and the size of the waves often growing with each telling, there is little surprise that scientists long dismissed them as tall tales.

Until around half a century ago, this scepticism chimed with the scientific evidence. According to scientists' best understanding of how waves are generated, a 30m wave might be expected once every 30,000 years. Rogue waves could safely be classified alongside mermaids and sea monsters.

However, we now know that they are no maritime myths.

A wave is a disturbance that moves energy between two points. The most familiar waves occur in water, but there are plenty of other kinds, such as radio waves that travel invisibly through the air. Although a wave rolling across the Atlantic is not the same as a radio wave, they both work according to the same principles, and the same equations can be used to describe them.
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A rogue wave is one that is at least twice the "significant wave height", which refers to the average of the third highest waves in a given period of time. According to satellite-based measurements, rogue waves do not only exist, they are relatively frequent. The sceptics had got their sums wrong, and what was once folklore is now fact.

At first Benjamin and Feir assumed there was a problem with their equipment.  This led scientists to altogether more difficult questions. Given that they exist, what causes rogue waves? More importantly for people who work at sea, can they be predicted?

Until the 1990s, scientists' ideas about how waves form at sea were heavily influenced by the work of British mathematician and oceanographer Michael Selwyn Longuet-Higgins. In work published from the 1950s onwards, he stated that, when two or more waves collide, they can combine to create a larger wave through a process called "constructive interference". According to the principle of "linear superposition", the height of the new wave should simply be the total of the heights of the original waves. A rogue wave can only form if enough waves come together at the same point according to this view.

However, during the 1960s evidence emerged that things might not be so simple. The key player was mathematician and physicist Thomas Brooke Benjamin, who studied the dynamics of waves in a long tank of shallow water at the University of Cambridge.
With his student Jim Feir, Benjamin noticed that while waves might start out with constant frequencies and wavelengths, they would change unexpectedly shortly after being generated. Those with longer wavelengths were catching those with shorter ones. This meant that a lot of the energy ended up being concentrated in large, short-lived waves.

At first Benjamin and Feir assumed there was a problem with their equipment. However, the same thing happened when they repeated the experiments in a larger tank at the UK National Physical Laboratory near London. What's more, other scientists got the same results.

For many years, most scientists believed that this "Benjamin-Feir instability" only occurred in laboratory-generated waves travelling in the same direction: a rather artificial situation. However, this assumption became increasingly untenable in the face of real-life evidence.

At 3am on 12 December 1978, a German cargo ship called The München sent out a mayday message from the mid-Atlantic. Despite extensive rescue efforts, she vanished never to be found, with the loss of 27 lives. A lifeboat was recovered. Despite having been stowed 66ft (20m) above the water line and showing no signs of having been purposefully lowered, the lifeboat seemed to have been hit by an extreme force.
There are many more rogue waves in the oceans than linear theory predicts
However, what really turned the field upside down was a wave that crashed into the Draupner oil platform off the coast of Norway shortly after 3.20pm on New Year's Day 1995. Hurricane winds were blowing and 39ft (12m) waves were hitting the rig, so the workers had been ordered indoors. No-one saw the wave, but it was recorded by a laser-based rangefinder and measured 85ft (26m) from trough to peak. The significant wave height was 35.4ft (10.8m). According to existing assumptions, such a wave was possible only once every 10,000 years.

The Draupner giant brought with it a new chapter in the science of giant waves. When scientists from the European Union's MAXWAVE projectanalysed 30,000 satellite images covering a three-week period during 2003, they found 10 waves around the globe had reached 25 metres or more.

"Satellite measurements have shown there are many more rogue waves in the oceans than linear theory predicts," says Amin Chabchoub of Aalto University in Finland. "There must be another mechanism involved."

In the last 20 years or so, researchers like Chabchoub have sought to explain why rogue waves are so much more common than they ought to be. Instead of being linear, as Longuet-Higgins had argued, they propose that rogue waves are an example of a non-linear system.

A non-linear equation is one in which a change in output is not proportional to the change in input. If waves interact in a non-linear way, it might not be possible to calculate the height of a new wave by adding the originals together. Instead, one wave in a group might grow rapidly at the expense of others.
Not everyone is convinced that Chabchoub has found the explanation
When physicists want to study how microscopic systems like atoms behave over time, they often use a mathematical tool called the Schrödinger equation. It turns out that certain non-linear version of the Schrödinger equation can be used to help explain rogue wave formation. The basic idea is that, when waves become unstable, they can grow quickly by "stealing" energy from each other.

Researchers have shown that the non-linear Schrödinger equation can explain how statistical models of ocean waves can suddenly grow to extreme heights, through this focusing of energy. In a 2016 study, Chabchoub applied the same models to more realistic, irregular sea-state data, and found rogue waves could still develop.

"We are now able to generate realistic rogue waves in the laboratory environment, in conditions which are similar to those in the oceans," says Chabchoub. "Having the design criteria of offshore platforms and ships being based on linear theory is no good if a non-linear system can generate rogue waves they can't cope with."

Still, not everyone is convinced that Chabchoub has found the explanation.

"Chabchoub was examining isolated waves, without allowing for interference with other waves," says optical physicist Günter Steinmeyer of the Max Born Institute in Berlin. "It's hard to see how such interference can be avoided in real-world oceans."
In principle, it is possible to predict an ocean rogue wave
Instead, Steinmeyer and his colleague Simon Birkholz looked at real-world data from different types of rogue waves. They looked at wave heights just before the 1995 rogue at the Draupner oil platform, as well as unusually bright flashes in laser beams shot into fibre optic cables, and laser beams that suddenly intensified as they exited a container of gas. Their aim was to find out whether these rogue waves were at all predictable.

The pair divided their data into short segments of time, and looked for correlations between nearby segments. In other words, they tried to predict what might happen in one period of time by looking at what happened in the periods immediately before. They then compared the strengths of these correlations with those they obtained when they randomly shuffled the segments.
The results, which they published in 2015, came as a surprise to Steinmeyer and Birkholz. It turned out, contrary to their expectations, that the three systems were not equally predictable. They found oceanic rogue waves were predictable to some degree: the correlations were stronger in the real-life time sequence than in the shuffled ones. There was also predictability in the anomalies observed in the laser beams in gas, but at a different level, and none in the fibre optic cables.

However, the predictability they found will be little comfort to ship captains who find themselves nervously eyeing the horizon as the winds pick up.

"In principle, it is possible to predict an ocean rogue wave, but our estimate of the reliable forecast time needed is some tens of seconds, perhaps a minute at most," says Steinmeyer. "Given that two waves in a severe North Sea storm could be separated by 10 seconds, to those who say they can build a useful device collecting data from just one point on a ship or oil platform, I'd say it's already been invented. It's called a window."

However, others believe we could foresee rogue waves a little further ahead.

The complexity of waves at sea is the result of the winds that create them. While ocean waves are chaotic in origin, they often organise themselves into packs or groups that stay together.
It could give ships and oil platforms 2-3 minutes of warning before a rogue wave formed
In 2015 Themis Sapsis and Will Cousins of MIT in Cambridge, Massachusetts, used mathematical models to show how energy can be passed between waves within the same group, potentially leading to the formation of rogue waves.

The following year, they used data from ocean buoys and mathematical modelling to generate an algorithm capable of identifying wave groups likely to form rogues.

Most other attempts to predict rogue waves have attempted to model all the waves in a body of water and how they interact. This is an extremely complex and slow process, requiring immense computational power.

Instead, Sapsis and Cousins found they could accurately predict the focusing of energy that can cause rogues, using only the measurements of the distance from the first to last waves in a group, and the height of the tallest wave in the pack. "Instead of looking at individual waves and trying to solve their dynamics, we can use groups of waves and work out which ones will undergo instabilities," says Sapsis.
He thinks his approach could allow for much better predictions. If the algorithm was combined with data from LIDAR scanning technology, Sapsis says, it could give ships and oil platforms 2-3 minutes of warning before a rogue wave formed.

Others believe the emphasis on waves' ability to catch other waves and steal their energy – which is technically called "modulation instability"– has been a red herring.

"These modulation instability mechanisms have only been tested in laboratory wave tanks in which you focus the energy in one direction," says Francesco Fedele of Georgia Tech in Atlanta. "There is no such thing as a uni-directional stormy sea. In real-life, oceans' energy can spread laterally in a broad range of directions."

In a 2016 study, Fedele and his colleagues argued that more straightforward linear explanations can account for rogue waves after all. They used historic weather forecast data to simulate the spread of energy and ocean surface heights in the run up to the Draupner, Andrea and Killard rogue waves, which struck respectively in 1995, 2007 and 2014.
If you account for the space-time effect properly, then the probability of encountering a rogue wave is larger
Their models matched the measurements, but only when they factored in the irregular shapes of ocean waves. Because of the pull of gravity, real waves have rounded troughs and sharp peaks – unlike the perfectly smooth wave shapes used in many models. Once this was factored in, interfering waves could gain an extra 15-20% in height, Fedele found.

"When you account for the lack of symmetry between crest and trough, and add it to constructive interference, there is an enhancement of the crest amplitudes that allows you to predict the occurrence observed in the ocean," says Fedele.

What's more, previous estimates of the chances of simple linear interference generating rogue waves only looked at single points in time and space, when in fact ships and oil rigs occupy large areas and are in the water for long periods. This point was highlighted in a 2016 report from the US National Transportation Safety Board, written by a group overseen by Fedele, into the sinking of an American cargo ship, the SS El Faro, on 1 October 2015, in which 33 people died. "If you account for the space-time effect properly, then the probability of encountering a rogue wave is larger," Fedele says.
Also in 2016, Steinmeyer proposed that linear interference can explain how often rogue waves are likely to form. As an alternative approach to the problem, he developed a way to calculate the complexity of ocean surface dynamics at a given location, which he calls the "effective" number of waves.

"Predicting an individual rogue wave event might be hopeless or non-practical, because it requires too much data and computing power. But what if we could do a forecast in the meteorological sense?" says Steinmeyer. "Perhaps there are particular weather conditions that we can foresee that are more prone to rogue wave emergence."
Steinmeyer thinks that Longuet-Higgins had it pretty much right 60 years ago
Steinmeyer's group found that rogue waves are more likely when low pressure leads to converging winds; when waves heading in different directions cross each other; when the wind changes direction over a wide range; and when certain coastal shapes and subsea topographies push waves together. They concluded that rogue waves could only occur when these and other factors combined to produce an effective number of waves of 10 or more.

Steinmeyer also downplays the idea that anything other than simple interference is required for rogue wave formation, and agrees that wave shape plays a role. However, he disagrees with Fedele's view that sharp peaks can have a significant impact on wave height.

"Non-linearities have a role, but it's a minor one," he says. "Their main role is that ocean waves are not perfect sine waves, but have more spiky crests and depressed troughs. However, what we calculated for the Draupner wave is that the effect of non-linearities on wave height was in the order of a few tens of centimetres."
In fact, Steinmeyer thinks that Longuet-Higgins had it pretty much right 60 years ago, when he emphasised basic linear interference as the driver of large waves, rogue or otherwise. But not everyone agrees.

In fact, the argument over exactly why rogue waves form seems set to rumble on for some time. Part of the issue is that several kinds of scientists are studying them – experimentalists and theoreticians, specialists in optical waves and fluid dynamics – and they have not as yet done a good job of integrating their different approaches. There is no sign that a consensus is developing.

But it is an important question to solve, because we will only be able to predict these deadly waves when we understand them. For anyone sitting on an isolated oil rig or ship, watching the swell of the waves under a stormy sky, those few minutes of warning could prove crucial.


Alaskan Summer: Midnight Sun

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Summer in Anchorage, Alaska is supposed to be cloudy/rainy/cool but we were gifted with relatively warm temperatures (in the 60°s/30°s) and mostly cloudless skies.

Located at 61° N Anchorage receives nearly 20 hours of daylight in June.  The other 4 hours are hardly dark, more like twilight.  For a week around the solstice (June 22) Anchorage sunrise is at 3:20 am and sunset occurs about 10:45 pm nightly, leaving roughly 4 hours of twilight between.
After a 4,000 mile flight from Florida, a 4-hour time difference, and nearly constant daylight some acclimation is required.   Most don't realize that Anchorage, at 149°54' W, is almost as far west as the Hawaiian Islands.

The first thing you notice when flying into Anchorage is the snowcapped mountains.  There is a near constant 1980s-like amber glow on everything as the sun skirts the horizon.
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 Below, flying into Anchorage International Airport over Cook Inlet
Anchorage International Airport with mountains
Due to its location, almost equidistant from New York City and Tokyo, Anchorage lies within 9½ hours by air to nearly 90% of the industrialized world.  For this reason, the Anchorage International Airport is a common refueling stop for many international flights and home to a major FedEx Hub.
I found the plaque above in a downtown park describing Anchorage's geographic location relative to the rest of the world.  The tourist-friendly sign below is located downtown by the Courthouse and Grass-roofed Tourist Information Center.
 Resolution Park
After getting settled in at the Anchorage Hilton Downtown I wanted to do some exploring, even though it was already 9:00 pm.  It was still light like 4:00 pm.  So we walked down to where W 3rd Avenue and L Street meet.  There, in the curve of the road is Resolution Park, named for Captain Cook's ship.  The City of Anchorage erected a nice bronze of Captain Cook in the park and someone had placed a Hawaiian lei in his hand.
 On the first day of June 1778, having sailed north along the American coast in search of the then unattainable northwest passage, the ships "Resolution" and "Discovery" commanded by Captain Cook, lay at anchor here.
Having charted the waters and coast of the main channel, Captain Cook dispatched two boats to examine the arm leading toward the east, and called it River Turnagain, convinced now that no passages to the Atlantic existed here.  I'll reserve comment on his choice of place names.
 Documents claiming possession of the land in the name of the King, together with some coins, were sealed in a bottle and buried at Point Possession, 20 miles south of this park on the Kenai Peninsula.
 The majestic waterway, stretching from this point 150 miles to the open sea, was chosen by the admiralty to commemorate England's greatest navigator, and thenceforth bears the name Cook Inlet.

The park was pretty well trashed but I didn't let that bother me.  Most of the signage was defaced and it was worn.  I often wonder what goes through the minds of people that discard litter and deface parks?
Bears are the theme around Anchorage.   I could do with a lot more like this one in front of the Courthouse which is lovely, and less of the stuffed variety that are kind of creepy.  Why would anyone want to kill and stuff such magnificent creatures?
 For me there was a surprising amount of greenery and flowers around Anchorage.  Many varieties of flowers in bloom and trees looking like spring.  I imagine they have long, explosive growth May to August and then lie dormant most of the rest of the year.  One could grow some incredible vegetables in the rich volcanic soil with 20 hours of daylight.
 I did some browsing in the touristy shops.  All Made-in-China crap that one can buy anywhere in the world, anytown, anytime.  
 The cool nighttime temperatures and the constant sunlight took a bit of getting accustomed to.  This is how I coped, below.
 From the roof of the Hilton Hotel I could see Denali, North America's tallest mountain that lies about 150 miles north of Anchorage.  Apparently this was a rare sighting as the hotel staff were very excited that the mountain was visible.
 Grizzly's was perhaps the most memorable of the downtown gift shops that I visited
 I like the signage and the bear with claws outstretched
 I gauge all these crap shops by how much they charge for a post card and whether they have any local art mixed in with all the Chinese-made trinkets
 Grizzly's did have some local art but its postcards were 3/$1.00 which was about 30% more than nearby stores.  They even had some elaborate post cards for as much as $8.  The flowers outside were nice, however.
 I couldn't figure why no one was on the street and most places were closed.  It was after 9:00 pm when this photo was made, bright sunlight still filling the streets of Anchorage.
 Below, another shot from the roof of the Anchorage, Hilton looking toward Denali.  You can see the mountain in center of frame if you blow up the image.  Click on any image for a larger view.
Below, at first I thought these were snapdragons. On closer inspection I found them to be Tree Lupines (Lupinus arboreus) growing far, far north of their assumed range.

Next stop:  Seward, Alaska.
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Alaskan Summer Nights

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Sailing east on the Regent Seven Seas Mariner from Seward to Sitka the sunsets were amazing.  I would rush up top when it was supposed to be sunset to try and capture the event, always forgetting that in June in Alaska. . . on the water with no mountains to the west, the sunset lasts for hours.
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Nautical Twilight
Nautical twilight is defined to begin in the morning, and to end in the evening, when the center of the sun is geometrically 12 degrees below the horizon. At the beginning or end of nautical twilight, under good atmospheric conditions and in the absence of other illumination, general outlines of ground objects may be distinguishable, but detailed outdoor operations are not possible. During nautical twilight the illumination level is such that the horizon is still visible even on a Moonless night allowing mariners to take reliable star sights for navigational purposes, hence the name.

We sailed east along 61° N.  At that high latitude nautical twilight lasts most of the 4 hours between sunset and sunrise.  At astronomical noon the sun only reaches 52° above the horizon and after "dark" it is only 5° below the horizon, thus providing the midnight sun and hours and hours of sunset, sunrise and nautical twilight.

This week sunrise is around 3:20 am and sunset is around 10:45 pm.  Days don't start getting significantly shorter until late August.  See the US Navy's Sun/Moon Rise/Set Page at USNO Data Services sunrise/sunset and twilight hours for your area of the world.

The twilight is sad and cloudy, 
The wind blows wild and free,
And like the wings of sea-birds
Flash the white caps of the sea.

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
Twilight: Before sunrise and again after sunset there are intervals of time, twilight, during which there is natural light provided by the upper atmosphere, which does receive direct sunlight and reflects part of it toward the Earth's surface. Some outdoor activities may be conducted without artificial illumination during these intervals, and it is useful to have some means to set limits beyond which a certain activity should be assisted by artificial lighting. The major determinants of the amount of natural light during twilight are the state of the atmosphere generally and local weather conditions in particular. Atmospheric conditions are best determined at the actual time and place of events. Nevertheless, it is possible to establish useful, though necessarily approximate, limits applicable to large classes of activities by considering only the position of the Sun below the local horizon. Reasonable and convenient definitions have evolved.
Civil twilight is defined to begin in the morning, and to end in the evening when the center of the Sun is geometrically 6 degrees below the horizon. This is the limit at which twilight illumination is sufficient, under good weather conditions, for terrestrial objects to be clearly distinguished; at the beginning of morning civil twilight, or end of evening civil twilight, the horizon is clearly defined and the brightest stars are visible under good atmospheric conditions in the absence of moonlight or other illumination. In the morning before the beginning of civil twilight and in the evening after the end of civil twilight, artificial illumination is normally required to carry on ordinary outdoor activities.
Astronomical twilight is defined to begin in the morning, and to end in the evening when the center of the Sun is geometrically 18 degrees below the horizon. Before the beginning of astronomical twilight in the morning and after the end of astronomical twilight in the evening, scattered light from the Sun is less than that from starlight and other natural sources. For a considerable interval after the beginning of morning twilight and before the end of evening twilight, sky illumination is so faint that it is practically imperceptible.
 Above and Below, near Yakutat and Kluane National Park
 As we sailed into a storm off of Baranof Island (Sitka area) there was brilliant sunset for hours to the west and a continuously changing series of rainbows to the east, in the storm.
 Ships Passing in The Night
Commonly said about two people who meet for a short time, share a few words, only to separate and continue on their way, never to see each other again.

We passed several Silver Seas ships in the night and found them again in harbors.  This is the Silver Shadow, a 28,000 GT, extreme luxury cruise ship very similar (but smaller) than the Seven Seas Mariner that we sailed.
The ocean is a big place, so what are the odds of two ships sailing directly past each other? I have no idea, but it's probably not very high. But it does occur, and when it happens to be at night, the ships may shine a light on the other in order to acknowledge the other's presence. The shining of the light can be seen as a greeting, as if the ships are talking to one another, that is, until they pass and disappear into the darkness of the night, never to see the other again. Well, who knows, they might cross paths again at some point.

This sort of ship passing situation, at some point, began to be applied to people who meet for the first time, only to part ways shortly after, disappearing into the vastness of the earth. Such people are like two ships passing at night.

The idiom is at least over 150 years old. It is written in Tales of a Wayside Inn, "The Theologian's Tale," by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow (1863):

Ships that pass in the night, and speak each other in passing, Only a signal shown and a distant voice in the darkness; So on the ocean of life, we pass and speak one another, Only a look and a voice, then darkness again and a silence.
 Below, as we passed Montague Island
 Clouds and sun, below
This sunset went on like this for about 3 hours.  It was enhanced by the storm we were sailing into.  It was windy and cold on top but I had the top 2 decks all to myself for hours.  Very nice sailing.
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Ring Around the Moon

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Its another warm night in Central Florida as this year without any break from the heat continues. Dense cirrus clouds stream across the night sky obscuring most stars and create a halo (or ring) around the moon. The cirrus clouds are outflow from Tropical Storm Cindy

The high cirrus clouds that are streaming across Florida from the Gulf of Mexico are +20,000 feet.  These clouds contain millions of tiny ice crystals.  The ring around the moon (or halo) they create is caused by both refraction, or splitting of light, and also by reflection, or glints of light from the ice crystals.

The Moon is in Tarus but most of the stars of Tarus cannot be seen through the hazy light cast through the cirrus clouds. Aldebaran is the only Tarus star that is faintly visible. Aldebaran is an orange giant star located about 65 light years from Earth.


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The brightest object in tonight's sky aside from the Moon is Jupiter. Castor is faintly visible above the Moon. Castor is the second brightest star in the constellation Gemini and one of the brightest stars in the nighttime sky.

Procyon is visible above and to the south of the Moon. Procyon is the brightestt star in the constellation Canis Minor. To the naked eye, it appears to be a single star, the seventh brightest in the night sky. It is actually a binary star system consisting of a white main sequence star and a faint white dwarf companion. The reason for its brightness is not its intrinsic luminosity but its proximity to the Sun; at a distance of 3.5 pc or 11.41 light years, Procyon is one of our near neighbors. Procyon forms one of the three vertices of the Winter Triangle, along with Sirius and Betelgeuse.


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Seward Gateway to Alaska

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While our "Gateway to Alaska" was Anchorage, our first embarkation was in Seward, and this was the view.  Extreme luxury aboard the Regent Seven Seas Mariner.  Regent is owned by Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and operates a four-ship fleet of the world's most inclusive luxury cruise experiences (so says their website). No one can argue with the view, the orchids, the chocolates, the champagne.  Definitely luxurious.
The Seven Seas Mariner was the first all-suite, all-balcony ship.  She is 709' with a capacity of 700 passengers and a crew of about 500.  Wikipedia says her staff to guest ratio is 1:6.  I know every time I turned around someone was greeting me or offering me food.  The Mariner, built in Saint-Nazaire, France is about 48,000 tons, has a draught of 21 feet (6.4 m), and does 20 knots (37 km/h/ 23 mph).
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It was kind of painful for me driving through the Chugach National Forest and Kenai Fjords National Park and not being able to stop.  We were on a bus being taken by the cruise company from Anchorage to Seward. . . so we had to keep to a schedule.  Alaska is a big place and it takes a lot of time to see it all.  So there will be another trip.  Next trip to Alaska I want to spend more time around Seward exploring Aialik Bay.
The entire cruise the upper decks were mine for the most part.  No one seemed to want to deal with the wind or cool air.  I loved it.  I was mesmerized by the June beauty of Seward, Alaska, the ship, her flags, it was all very special.  Add to all of that the staff had a cookout going down by the bar making Alaskan favorites (halibut, sea bass, etc), or pretty much anything you could ever want.  Me?  I love chocolate.  I had plenty of desserts.
Seward is a picturesque, nautical village of about 2,500 permanent residents.  I had an excellent view from our 9th floor suite overlooking the Seward Harbor.
For most of the cruise, including the first day, there were few sunbathers.  It was cool.  Kind of like the coldest day you would ever expect to experience in Central Florida.  55°-60° and breezy with brilliant sunshine.  The locals said all this sunshine was very unusual.  Global warming.
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I told the butler that I was mostly vegetarian and liked lots of water, nuts, cheese, and juice.  He kept the refrigerator stocked with Clear Alaskan Glacial Water, which I saved and brought home.  It pretty much tastes like any other water but its a really nice package.  The water comes from a glacial lake near Anchorage—Eklutna Lake.  The lake is one of Alaska's natural wonders, formed in the melt and retreat of the great North American ice sheet at the beginning of the Holocene period 10,000 years ago.

The great Eklutna Glacier carved Eklutna Valley as it retreated, leaving horizontal scarring on rock formations as evidence of its passing.  Glacial and freshwater streams flowing into the valley created the 13 km-long lake now in the protected Chugach National Forest.  The forest is nearly 7 million acres or about 10,800 miles² (27,958 km²).  In addition to the water bottling plant there are some oil, gas, and mining operations allowed in the National Forest.  This is Alaska after all.  We had to expect some disrespect for the natural beauty of the place just based on their politics.
Kenai Fjords National Park on the remote Kenai Peninsula in southern Alaska.
My first view of the ship that would be home for the next 8 days
There wasn't much to the Port of Seward.  A hanger-style building with security.
I kept expecting Alaskans to be like the caricature that we know from Sarah Palin and her clan of rednecks:  Brash, tacky, and ignorant.  I did not find that with the Alaskans I met.  They were warm, pleasant, and decent people.  It was a nice surprise and some testament to the ridiculousness of the TV shows that on Discovery and other networks that relentlessly highlight only the outrageous and anti-social Alaskans that are their stars.
Below, looking out into Resurrection Bay
The ship had to do a 180° turn in the bay so we got to see it from all sides
I wandered around a bit snapping photos of the magnificent view
As we pulled away from Seward you got some sense of the scale of the mountains
Seward is the terminus of the Alaskan Railroad and one of the top 10 (in dollars) port cities in America.  I'm not sure what all those pipes were running along the breakwater but they appear to be grain or fuel transport pipes for cargo ships which frequent the port.
Pool deck deserted.  Everyone was cocktailing or eating. . .
Can You See Climate Change?
On this June day it was a cloudless skies with blustery conditions.  The climate around Seward is generally damp and cool.  Seward has, depending on the isotherm, a subpolar oceanic climate (Köppen Cfc) or a subarctic climate (Köppen Dfc), and lies just within the subpolar/subarctic zone at 60° N, with moderate temperatures for Alaska, due to its location along the Gulf of Alaska coast, and high levels of precipitation (73 inches/year; 1862 mm).  We heard frequently how unusual it was to have cloudless skies and relatively warm temperatures in the 60°s (18° C).
The breakwater at Seward Harbor.  Interesting to note that this area was devastated in the M9.2 Great Alaskan Earthquake of March 27, 1964 by shaking and a local tsunami.
The ship leaving quite a wake as she did a complete 180° turn in Seward Harbor.
I don't think "Junior" the Tugboat did any actual pushing of the SS Mariner.  It looked to me like the tug was there to merely transport the Harbor Pilot.
The harbor pilot stayed on board until we got well past Thumb Cove
Junior, heading back north toward Seward as we sailed south into the Gulf of Alaska
Even on the longest day of the year (June 22), the sun only reaches an elevation of about 53° thus the ship casts a long shadow across Resurrection Bay as we depart.
We've Read. . .
and you should pay close attention too, if you think you might ever get sick, old, or become disabled.  Congress is attempting to remove the Medicaid entitlement
The first hints of an uncertain future for the Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS came last year, when Donald Trump's presidential campaign refused to meet with advocates for people living with HIV, said Scott Schoettes, a member of the council since 2014.

That
unease was magnified on Inauguration Day in January, when an official White House website for the Office of National AIDS Policy vanished, Schoettes said.

Senate Trumpcare Bill Page 30.  This essentially subsidizes the bonuses of Health Insurance Executives

“I started to think, was it going to be useful or wise or would it be possible to work with this administration?” Schoettes told The Washington Post. “Still, I made a decision to stick it out and see what we could do.”

Less than six months later, Schoettes said those initial reservations had given way to full-blown frustration over a lack of dialogue with or caring from Trump administration officials about issues relating to HIV or AIDS.

Last week, he and five others announced they were quitting the Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS, also known as PACHA. According to Schoettes, the last straw — or “more like a two-by-four than a straw” — had come in May, after the Republican-dominated House passed the American Health Care Act, which he said would have “devastating” effects on those living with HIV.

Senate Trumpcare Bill.  This clause means higher costs before your insurance kicks in, that is to say, higher deductibles.  This essentially codifies higher deductibles than under the ACA.



One doesn't have to know a lot about policy to know that cutting health care by $1 trillion means a lot more people won't have it. Even President Trump seems to have noticed that. He went from defending the plan with some of his trademark stream-of-consciousness braggadocio — it's “getting better and better and better, and it's gotten really good, and a lot of people are liking it a lot,” he told reporters in April — to now deciding that it was actually “mean” all along.

Senate Trumpcare Bill Page 52-53.  This scheme imposes per capita caps on Medicaid (that is to say it cuts funding).

You just can't cut taxes the way Republicans want and have “insurance for everybody” like Trump promised. Heck, you can't even have cheaper insurance. On an apples-to-apples basis, the House Republican plan, at least, would probably increase premiums and deductibles, according to the center-left Brookings Institution and the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. To the extent that people would pay less, it would only be because they were getting less and people who needed more had been priced out of the market. None of this is going to change in the Senate version unless the GOP changes its commitment to cutting taxes for the rich.

Senate Trumpcare Bill Page 86.  This scheme allows states to convert Medicaid to a block grant program (that is to say it cuts funding).

So I guess that makes it two things we know about the Senate GOP's health-care plan: they want to pass it next week, and it will be something Trump thinks is mean.

Beware of what we don't know.  Likely the Senate also wants to change Medicaid from an entitlement into something much less generous and this will affect 70,000,000 Americans, many of them elderly and in nursing homes.  It might also be the first step toward doing the same thing to Medicare.
Senate Trumpcare Bill Page 41. They revoke the essential health benefits

The “health-care bill” that Republicans are trying to pass in the Senate, like the one approved by the GOP majority in the House, isn’t really about health care at all. It’s the first step in a massive redistribution of wealth from struggling wage-earners to the rich — a theft of historic proportions.

Is the Senate version less “mean” than the House bill, to use President Trump’s description of that earlier effort? Not really. Does the new bill have the “heart” that Trump demanded? No, it doesn’t. The devil is not in the details, it’s in the big picture.


Senate Trumpcare Bill Page 134.  Here is your age tax.  House version started the Age Tax in 2018, Senate waits until 2019

Fundamentally, what Republicans in both chambers want to do is cut nearly $1 trillion over the next decade from the Medicaid program, which serves almost 70 million people. Medicaid provides health care not just for the indigent and disabled but also for the working poor — low-wage employees who cannot afford health insurance, even the plans offered through their jobs.

Additionally, about 20 percent of Medicaid spending goes to provide nursing home care, including for middle-class seniors whose savings have been exhausted — a situation almost any of us might confront. Roughly two-thirds of those in nursing homes have their care paid by Medicaid.


Senate Trumpcare Bill Page 135.  This allows states to let insurance companies charge you more because of a pre-existing condition.

Why would Republicans want to slash this vital program so severely? You will hear a lot of self-righteous huffing and puffing about the need for entitlement reform, but the GOP’s intention is not to use the savings to pay down the national debt. Instead, slashing Medicaid spending creates fiscal headroom for what is euphemistically being called “tax reform” — a soon-to-come package of huge tax cuts favoring the wealthy.

Neither the House nor the Senate bill fully dismantles the scaffolding of Obamacare; rather, they allow the states to do most of the dirty work. Philosophically, Republican majorities in both chambers want to erase the central concept that the ACA established: that health care is a fundamental right, not a privilege depending on one’s income.
Senate Trumpcare Bill.  This section cuts $4 billion from the Prevention and Public Health Fund.  That's a cruel joke on those who need preventive care and immunizations.

Invisible Animals

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We’ve all heard of squid and octopus using pigments to blend in with their surroundings, but what about becoming completely invisible? To become actually see through, and appear as if you aren’t there, you need to either allow light to travel through you unimpeded, or bend light around you - so that none reflects back at an observer. It’s a tricky task, but some animals are almost there.
Glass octopus
In the ocean animals have two choices if they want to hide. Creatures that live in the deep ocean close to the seafloor can blend in with sand or rocks, or hide in coral. In the deep ocean it is often pitch black anyway and predators lack eyes, so being invisible is not necessary.

Animals that live close to the surface and want to hide can produce dazzling displays of light in a process known as bioluminescence, confusing predators below who think they are looking at dappled sunshine hitting the water’s surface. Animals that live in midwater though have neither of these options. This region is known as the pelagic zone, and it also happens to be where most invisible animals live.
Perhaps the easiest way of becoming invisible is by being transparent and letting light travel completely through you. In open oceans, which lack structures to hide behind, being transparent is a great way of hiding from all viewpoints and angles. It’s so popular in fact that transparency has independently evolved multiple times in completely unrelated animals.

One such animal, the glass octopus (Vitreledonella richardi) is so named because it is almost completely transparent. The gelatinous creature can grow up to 45cm (18in), if you include the tentacles. It lives 300-1000m below the surface in tropical and subtropical waters across the world, and is almost completely invisible to predators except for its digestive system, optic nerves and eyes.
But what’s the point in making your whole body transparent, if the eyes and guts are still visible? Even worse, these organs will cast shadows on the seafloor below, making them more visible to predators. Eyes need to absorb light to function, so it is not possible for them to be transparent. Guts betray their contents, so unless an animal feeds on transparent material, they will be visible. However the octopus, and all hosts of transparent creatures go to great lengths to disguise these opaque organs. The glass octopus (Vitreledonella richardi) for example has very elongated eyes which reduces its peripheral vision, but minimises the shadow it casts below - making it less likely to be detected by predators hunting from below. There is also some evidence that it orientates its body in such a way so as to minimise its shadow.

The glass octopus is not the only transparent animal to come up with an ingenious way of disguising its eyes. Many transparent molluscs camouflage their eyes with mirrors, as mirrors in the open ocean reflect only more ocean and so are invisible.
Cranchiidae or glass squid

The glass family of squid, of which there are about 60 species, are almost entirely see through. They live, again in the pelagic region of oceans around the world, between 200 and 1000m below sea level.

Although their bodies are entirely transparent, their large eyes are opaque, which is a problem as predators swimming below can easily see the shadow they cast. However the glass squid (Cranchiidae) uses a clever form of camouflage to hide them. It uses photophores - organs beneath its eyes - to produce light in a trick called counter-illumination. This light looks very similar to the sunlight filtering down from above, so it makes the squid completely invisible to predators swimming below it. However the light could make the squid very conspicuous to viewers looking at it from other angles. Rather than an invisibility cloak, the glowing light could act like a beacon drawing predators to it.

Researchers from the University of Pennsylvania found that the squid’s photophores are amazingly able to match the amount of light they produce to that coming in from every direction, creating a sort of omnidirectional invisibility cloak.
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The tomopteris deep sea worm

This genus, or group of marine planktonic polychaete worms are almost completely transparent, making them very difficult for predators to see. Paradoxically at least 11 species in the group can also emit bright luminous colours. Most tomopteris worms glow blue, but one species, Tomopteris nisseni can produce yellow light and is one of only few such creatures on the planet to do so.

Some tomopteris worms can even distract predators by releasing a glowing part of their body called a parapodia, making the predator chase after the dispelled body part rather than the worm itself.
Sea salp



A salp is a completely transparent barrel shaped creature which swims and feeds at the same time by pumping water through its gelatinous body. They filter out the phytoplankton in the water to feed on. Although they look a bit like jellyfish they are actually more sophisticated and are closely related to fish and vertebrates - they have a heart and gills and can reproduce sexually.

Salps have a fascinating life cycle. For part of it they live by themselves, but they then clone themselves and form long strings and other shapes of connected organisms. Individual salps synchronise their swimming by communicating with one another via electrical signals.
Hyperiids

Sometimes being transparent isn’t enough, and organisms need other tricks up their sleeve to remain invisible. This is certainly the case for the Hyperiid, a little crustacean bearing a resemblance to a shrimp. They are able to hide from predators by being transparent. However that only gets them so far. A plane of glass is also transparent but you can still see it if you shine a light on it, as the light is reflected back. This is a particular problem in the ocean because many predators use bioluminescence as a searchlight when hunting for prey.

A recent study suggests there is more to the hyperiid’s ability to hide than simple transparency. It turns out they are using a kind of nanotechnology to interfere with and bend light, cloaking themselves and almost rendering them invisible. The scientists used a scanning electron microscope to closely analyse seven species of hyperiids. They found that the legs of one species were covered in tiny nano sized hair-like protuberances.

The body of this species, and six others were also covered in nano sized bumps or spheres ranging in size from under 100 nanometers to around 300 nanometers. The tiny size of the bumps could minimise light scattering and the scientists found that a combination of both nanostructures - the bumps and the hairs could reduce reflectance by as much as 100 fold. The weird thing is that the researchers think these spheres could actually be bacteria.
Japetella heathi and Onychoteuthis banksii

The squid Japetella heathi and the octopus Onychoteuthis banksii also have a novel trick up their sleeves when it comes to invisibility - they can quickly switch from being transparent to a reddish brown color.

They both live in the Pacific Ocean between 600-1000m deep – known as the mesopelagic zone. Although being transparent helps a lot with invisibility close to the water’s surface, as diffuse sunlight from the surface passes straight through transparent tissue, when you shine a light directly on something that is transparent, it suddenly becomes very visible.

Unfortunately this happens quite a lot in the deep sea, where predators use light-emitting organs called photophores like a searchlight when hunting. Prey at these depths are often red or black so that they reflect as little blue light as possible. Japetella heathi, an octopus, and Onychoteuthis banksii, a squid, are able to switch between both, but how do they do it? Both species’ skin contains light sensitive cells called chromatophores. The cells contain a dye, and when they detect light they immediately expand and release the pigment.
Sea Sapphires

Sea Sapphires (Sapphirina) are ant size creatures that live in warm tropical and subtropical seas. They belong to a group of crustaceans called copepods. Different species emit a range of brilliant iridescent colours, from vivid blues to reds and golds.

What is remarkable about them is that one second they can shimmer brightly and the next they appear almost to disappear and the way they do this is fascinating. Their skin, or cuticle cells contain tiny crystal plates arranged in a hexagonal honeycomb pattern. The crystals contain guanine, one of the four bases that make up DNA. The crystal layers are separated from each other by a soup-like fluid called a cytosol.
A team of scientists found that the although the layers of guanine crystals are always exactly the same thickness – 70 nanometers, the thickness of the cytosol between the layers varies from 50 to 200 nanometers. It is this variety which determines the colour of the sea sapphire. Thicker layers of cytosol lead to longer wavelengths of light being reflected, which make the copepod look red or magenta.
The color also depends on the angle of light which strikes them. As the angle becomes smaller and smaller, the wavelength of reflected light becomes shorter and the colour more violet. If the angle becomes small enough then the reflected light is in the UV spectrum, which means that we can’t see it and the sea sapphires disappear. The researchers found that light which hit the crustaceans at a 45° angle effectively caused them to become invisible.
The glasswing butterfly

All of the transparent animals discussed so far have lived in the sea, and there’s a good reason for that. To be transparent you need to be made up of stuff that neither absorbs nor reflects light. This is a difficult task for plants and animals that live on land because there is such a large difference between the refractive index of living tissues and air. The refractive index of a material describes how quickly light travels through it. Light travels fastest in a vacuum, and generally speaking the denser a material, the longer light takes to travel through it and the greater its refractive index will be.

As biological tissue is so much thicker and denser than air, when light waves go from travelling through air to body tissue, they slow down. This causes light to change directions and scatter, causing reflections that make the animal more visible.
In the sea there is less difference between the refractive index of water and biological tissues, so transparency is an easier task, hence why there are so many ‘almost’ invisible animals. Another reason you don’t find many see through animals on land is because organisms need pigments like melanin to protect them from UV radiation from the sun.

However there are some exceptions to the see through rule. One is the glasswing butterfly (Greta oto) which lives in Central America.

Although not all of its body is see through, its transparent wings make it difficult for predators to track it during flight. To look at how the butterfly achieves its transparency, scientists examined their wings under an electron microscope. They found tiny nano sized bumps called nanopillars which were scattered randomly and had different lengths. It seems that the random size and distribution of the nanoscale structures help the butterfly minimise reflections from its wings. The nanopillars interfere with rays of light hitting the wing, causing most to pass straight through rather than bouncing back.
Transparent mollusc

Another exception to the rule is a translucent snail (Zospeum tholussum) that was discovered in the deepest cave in Croatia. Scientists from Goethe University, Frankfurt found the see through mollusc living 980m underground in the Lukina Jama-Trojama cave, in a chamber full of rocks and sand with a small stream running through it.

The snail belongs to a genus of miniature land snails that are found in dark, underground caves, and which are unable to move by themselves. Researchers believe they use running water from streams to transport themselves.

However even though it is translucent, the snail is still fairly visible, highlighting just how difficult it is for land animals to achieve what those in the ocean do.

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by Abby Ohlheiser, The Washington Post, June 23, 2017

Back when Internet culture was something that felt like it happened over there, online, separate from the rest of our lives, people started to create rules to explain what it was like. Godwin’s Law is probably the best known of these: It states that eventually, as an online conversation progresses, it becomes increasingly likely that someone is going to compare someone else to Hitler.

A lot has changed, online and otherwise, since Godwin’s Law first appeared in 1990. But the law is still true on the Internet, even if some of the people now getting called a “Nazi” online are literal Nazis.

Of these many old rules about the Internet, three of them — Godwin’s, Poe’s and, er, Rule 34 — have managed to stay particularly useful for explaining basically the whole of Internet culture. Appropriately, they cover irony, Nazis and porn.

“On the one hand, there’s this assumption that 2007 and 2017 are eons apart in Internet time,” said Ryan Milner, co-author of “The Ambivalent Internet” and an assistant professor of Communication at the College of Charleston. “But there are these persistent behavior norms that show up over and over again.”
Poe's Law

What it is: Amessage board user going by Nathan Poe defined it as, “Without a winking smiley or other blatant display of humor, it is utterly impossible to parody a Creationist in such a way that someone won’t mistake for the genuine article.” That was in 2005.

“That small root started to become shorthand for a bigger idea,” Milner said. “Places like 4chan and Reddit started invoking Poe’s Law over the past decade. It becomes a general rule that you can’t tell someone’s motives and intentions unless you know who you’re talking to.”

Why it’s still useful: Oh, boy. You know that trolling cycle, in which someone says something extremely offensive and hurtful about someone else, and then claims they were “just kidding” when called out about it? That is Poe’s Law.
Poe’s Law is the argument over whether thePepe the frog meme was really a Nazi hate symbol, and whether the possible role of irony in its use as a racist symbol would really change anything. It’s the blow-up over the“OK” hand symbol, which 4chan memed as a “secret” white nationalist symbol in order to fool and terrify liberals. It’s why journalists are often left staring at a question mark while trying to report on Internet phenomena today. It’s the space that people wiggle into after they’ve said something dehumanizing about another person online. It was just a joke, and if you don’t get it, then you’re the problem.

“People embrace irony, run to it, and use it as a shield to dip into a more objectionable idea,” Milner said. And what was once an adage reminding message board users to remain agnostic about the motivation of a stranger on the Internet has become more consequential as it slips into more public spaces.

“It’s easier to laugh off someone pretending to be a flat Earther than it is to laugh off someone ironically saying the Holocaust is a good thing,” Milner said. “We’re unfortunately in a place where a lot of our public conversations are the latter.”
Godwin’s Law

What it is:“As an online discussion continues, the probability of a reference or comparison to Hitler or Nazis approaches 1.” That’s how Mike Godwin defined the law in 1990, when he was trying to do something about the phenomenon of online arguments devolving into sloppy name-calling — specifically, unwarranted comparisons to Adolf Hitler.

Invoking “Godwin’s law” eventually became a way to address those comparisons. Thoughtlessly accuse someone you disagree with of being a Nazi, and someone might turn around and accuse you of breaking the Internet’s most treasured law.

Why it’s still useful: The key of Godwin’s law is in its criticism of avoiding an argument by bludgeoning your opponent with a careless comparison to the worst people on earth. “When you don’t want to or are too blinded to get into the depth and nuance of the issue, then the easy blow-off is to call someone a Nazi,” Milner said.

The phenomenon is easily visible today. You’ll see it in the replies to any of Donald Trump’s tweets, and in the Trump Internet’s obsession with connecting mainstream liberalism and liberals to “leftist violence.”

But like most things on the Internet, Godwin’s Law has gotten a little bit more complicated in the past couple of years. Spamming Trump’s Twitter mentions with Hitler memes might be a good illustration of the law in action, but even Godwin himself came forward in 2015 to clarify that his rule shouldn’t be invoked when people make thoughtful, well-informed comparisons between Hitler and Trump, or any other politician.

There’s another trick to navigate with Godwin’s Law in 2017: literal Nazis and white nationalists are on the Internet, too, and they’re more visible now. For example, Richard Spencer, the white nationalist who coined “alt-right” as a friendlier term for his beliefs, may not like being called a Nazi. But he also told his supporters shortly after Trump’s election that they should “party like it’s 1933,” referencing the year Hitler was appointed Germany’s chancellor. So comparing Spencer to a Nazi is less about painting someone as an extremist, and more about semantics.

“I don’t think Richard Spencer and his supporters could invoke Godwin’s Law when someone calls them a Nazi,” Milner said.
Rule 34

What it is: If it exists, there is a porn of it. The rule comes from a bunch of old 4chan “rules,” which were basically inside jokes for navigating the culture of the message boards at the time. Unlike many of those Rules of the Internet, though, Rule 34 crossed over and took on a life of its own. It seemed to be true, and it also served as a fun game that has the added bonus of destroying your search history.


The law’s golden age ended around 2010, and — as, uh, The Washington Post explained in an important investigation last year— the porn that is easily accessible on the web has become more centralized since then, indicating that the rule — and the creative and disturbing world of super weird Internet porn that sustained it — may be on its way out.

Why it’s still useful: Originally I was going to be kind of facetious about this one — the Internet is still full of porn, and even if it’s harder to find than it once was, a porn of pretty much anything you can think of does seem to exist somewhere online. But there’s actually more to it than that.

“Where Rule 34 still connects is with the fact that even as the Internet has become more diverse … there’s still this undercurrent that still looks like the subculture niche spaces of a decade ago,” Milner said.

If you’re willing to expand the rule beyond it’s porn-specific origins, Rule 34 is about discovering the worst and weirdest things that humans have voluntarily put on the Internet. And if 2017 has taught us anything, it is that no matter how bad the last terrible thing that happened on the Internet was, something worse is always waiting around the corner.

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Turtle Rescues

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Whenever I'm driving the truck I rescue any of the slider turtles that are on the move across Florida roads.  They are not likely to survive road crossings as there is a general disregard for wildlife in Florida. 

I release the sliders into my ponds where they are far from any motorized vehicles.  I hadn't seen Redneck, the red-eared slider in the image above (Trachemys scripta elegans), for a very long time, until this afternoon.  He comes and goes at will.  He is identifiable from the others by the  white patch on his shell clearly visible in this shot.
Red-eared Sliders are not native to Florida. They are best known as the pet-shop turtles of our childhood. This (above) is a native Yellow-bellied slider (Trachemys scripta scripta) that I rescued a few days ago. She was quite large and extremely scared. I watched as two cars almost ran over her. Then I stopped in the middle of the road, stopping traffic, and almost got run over myself trying to grab her. Below: My finger for scale.
 Below, another yellow-bellied slider I picked up this week, much smaller than the one above.  This female fit in the palm of my hand.
 Another slider, in the trunk of my car, below.
 A giant slider with my size 12 shoe for scale
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She sat by the pond for a very long time before finally deciding to dive in.



Red-eared Sliders have a very distinctive red marking alongside either side of their heads
Redneck is a smaller than the adult Yellow-bellied Sliders
 Below:  His majesty Dell-Roy Jackson standing on the kitchen island.  He kind of dwarfs the cooking pots and pans on the stove.  If you don't like black hair in your food you probably wouldn't like eating at our house. Dell-Roy jumped onto a hot burner last month but he didn't really learn much of a lesson from that experience.  In the background tiny Damien Roscoe Roth peers from around a doorway looking for an opportunity to run to a safe spot (away from Dell-Roy's reach).  Dell-Roy is the ultimate alpha, terrorizing dogs and cats alike.  Dell-Roy now tops the scales at a whopping 23 pounds (10.4 kg).
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often naked, Spanish model, actor and bearded tattoo enthusiast







Wolves Return to California

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In other western states wolves get no respect, but in California the return of a second pack to the Northern California Wilderness has wolf lovers howling with joy, especially over this little cub's adorable image.
A recently discovered gray wolf pack is now the second-known family of the endangered species to call the Northern California wilderness home, state wildlife officials confirmed the first week of July, 2017.

Known as the Lassen Pack, the family includes two adult gray wolves and at least three pups.


The pups and the group’s matriarch were tracked this summer crossing into industrial timberlands and private and public properties throughout western Lassen County, according to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. The pack also has ventured into Plumas County. 


 The family’s arrival comes two years after the first pack of gray wolves was spotted in the area since the 1920s. In 2014, state wildlife authorities added gray wolves to California's endangered species list.

First clues of a wolf pack
Biologists first suspected that California could have a new wolf pack last summer and fall. At the time, cameras positioned along remote trails in Lassen County photographed two gray wolves traveling together.

Scientists collected scat samples and determined one of the wolves was male. The wolf came from Oregon and was born into a group known as the Rogue Pack. The collected samples indicated the other wolf was female, but her origins were not known.

The photos and DNA results sparked the curiosity of scientists throughout the region.

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Capture and release
In May, biologists from the U.S. Forest Service found evidence of wolves in the Lassen National Forest. Later, scientists with the Fish and Wildlife Department initiated a plan to collar one of the animals. They tried for 12 days to trap one of the wolves. Then on June 30, biologists caught the 75-pound adult female.

After examining her, biologists discovered she had given birth to pups in the spring, Deana Clifford, the department’s senior wildlife veterinarian, said in a statement. During the examination, researchers collected genetic and other biological samples from the wolf.

The biologists determined she was “in excellent condition,” Clifford said. She then was fitted with a collar so scientists could better track her movements in the Lassen National Forest.

The next day, biologists were conducting a follow-up check on the female wolf when they found pup tracks. They later discovered the pups and female wolf had been photographed by U.S. Forest Service cameras.

“The pups were gray in color and were serendipitously photographed playing in front of the camera,” the Fish and Wildlife Department said.

Biologists are hoping the tracking device attached to the female wolf will give them a better understanding of what she prefers to eat as well as her reproduction habits, survival practices and daily patterns.


The Shasta Pack
In 2015, the first confirmed pair of gray wolves birthed five pups in eastern Siskiyou County.

The bunch, known as the Shasta Pack, was the first pack in the state in nearly 100 years.

Although the pack’s current status is not known, one of the pups was spotted in northwestern Nevada in November 2016, according to the Fish and Wildlife Department.


ALSO

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'A travel ban for a pug? I don't think so!' How an abused puppy made the trip from Iran to America

A week in the life of P‑22, the big cat who shares Griffith Park with millions of people


Sulphur Cosmos
(Cosmos sulphureus)
The orange cosmos are doing quite well despite the irregular rains and excessive heat this July.  They are sometimes called "Sulphur Cosmos," or as this batches seeds were labeled, "Klondike Cosmos"








Gulf of Alaska

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Day 3 of our Alaska excursion was spent sailing east in the Gulf of Alaska from Seward to Yakutat.  It is an air distance of about 400 miles that by car would take an incredible 41 hours of circuitous driving over 1,200 miles via AK-1 and took the better part of 2 days by boat.
Why so far to drive?  Most of the land between Seward and Yakutat is mountainous National Park and Preserve land with few roads.  From our vantage point, 5 - 10 miles out to sea, it was one dramatic mountain range after another.
The first evening of our journey east the captain told us to expect a change in weather from relatively balmy in Anchorage and Seward to stormy and cold in the Gulf of Alaska.  It didn't take long for the weather to change and the seas to rise.
We had a fine dining experience down at wave level (video above) as the seas built and the ship began to rock and heave.  Somehow all the dinnerware stayed on the tables.
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As we sailed into the storm it started raining and got much colder, and I had the top two decks pretty much to myself for the next day. Rain and cold don't bother me.
I enjoyed watching all the water slosh out of the swimming pool as the ship heaved back and forth. It is light until about midnight in the Alaskan summer and then it is only dark about 4 hours, so I had plenty of time to roam the upper decks watching for whales and otters and other ships and admiring the splendid mountains.
It was some of the most remarkable cruising I've ever experienced. . . 
and that was before we got close to Disenchantment Bay and the dazzling Hubbard Glacier which flows into the sea from Canada's Yukon through Alaska's Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve and Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve.  
Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve forms the largest area managed by the National Park Service in the United States by area with a total of 13,175,799 acres (20,587 mi²; 53,320 km²), an expanse that could encapsulate a total of six Yellowstone National Parks. The park includes a large portion of the Saint Elias Mountains, which include most of the highest peaks in the United States and Canada, yet are within 10 miles (16 km) of tidewater, one of the highest reliefs in the world. Wrangell–St. Elias borders Canada's Kluane National Park and Reserve to the east and approaches the U.S. Glacier Bay National Park to the south. The chief distinction between park and preserve lands is that sport hunting is prohibited in the park and permitted in the preserve. In addition, 9,078,675 acres (3,674,009 ha) of the park are designated as the largest single wilderness in the United States.

How big is Wrangell-St. Elias?  Its the same size as Yellowstone National Park, Yosemite National Park, and SWITZERLAND combined!  It contains some the the largest volcanoes in North America, some of the most impressive wildlife, and breath-taking mountains that rise as high as 18,000+ feet right at the edge of the sea.
Huge cruise ships look like toy boats next to Wrangell-St.Elias' mountains (above).  Can you see the 50,000 ton, 90 foot tall cruise ship?
Aboard the ship mountains rise in every direction.  There is sensory distortion because it appears one is very close to the mountains when in fact I don't think the ship ever got within 5 miles of the shoreline.  That's how dramatic the relief of these mountains is (as seen in these photos).
Next stop:  Hubbard Glacier and Disenchantment Bay
Spidey-Mania
All 6 Spider-Man Movies, ranked from best to worst
Now that Spider-Man is swinging into theaters for the sixth time, it’s time to ask where this new franchise, now under the watchful gaze of Marvel Studios in addition to Sony, ranks among the rest. You don’t have this current era of superhero movies without Spider-Man leading the way at the box office, but that doesn’t mean those films got it right every time.

Here is the ranking of all six Spider-Man movies by The Washington Post's David Betancourt:

1. Spider-Man 2 (2004)

“Spider-Man 2″ may not be able to hold the top spot for long with more movies from this promising new franchise on the way, but for now, it’s still our top Spidey-flick. Taking its cue from the “Spider-Man No More” storyline of 1967’s “Amazing Spider-Man” No. 50, Tobey Maguire plays a frustrated Peter Parker who decides he’s no longer going to allow Spider-Man to get in the way of the things most important to him, mainly his love for Mary Jane Watson. Harry Osborn discovers that his best friend Peter is secretly Spider-Man and, convinced Peter killed his father, Norman Osborn/The Green Goblin, Harry goes down the dark path of becoming a Goblin of his own. Alfred Molina gives a compelling performance as classic Spider-Man villain Doctor Octopus, and composer Danny Elfman, with an assist from superstar comic artist Alex Ross in the opening credits and some fun-to-watch skyscraper web-swinging at the movie’s end, gives us one of the greatest superhero movie scores ever. “Spider-Man 2,” despite now having a lot more competition, can still be considered one of the best superhero movies ever.
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
Spider-Man is finally home where he belongs: Marvel Studios. Once the cinematic road to the Avengers was created, it never seemed right that Spider-Man’s deal with Sony made it so he couldn’t fight alongside Iron Man and company. “Homecoming” isn’t just a declaration of Avenger-hood, however — it almost magically feels like a brand new Spider-Man movie, despite being the sixth one. Tom Holland’s Peter Parker leads an actually-young cast of high school supporting players. Michael Keaton gives an all-time Spider-villain performance as the Vulture (we shouldn’t be surprised, the guy is Batman) and Spider-Man has never looked better, with a suit that’s a nod to the Spider-Man art of the ’60s and ’70s up top with its webbed wings, mixed with some high-tech, Iron Man-like magic. “Homecoming” takes Spider-Man out of the previous movies’ dark shadows and shows it can be fun to be Spidey.
3. “Spider-Man” (2002)

If you have superhero movie fatigue, you can thank the first “Spider-Man” film, the first movie to debut with a $100 million opening weekend. “X-Men” hit theaters in 2000, but Sam Raimi’s “Spider-Man” was the first superhero movie since 1989’s “Batman” to feel like a worldwide pop-culture event. Perhaps this movie’s only flaw was a silly Green Goblin suit — Willem Dafoe was actually much more menacing outside of it as he went to war with Maguire’s Spider-Man while slowly going insane. A classic upside-down kiss with Mary Jane might be this film’s most memorable moment, and the web swinging in New York, when seen for the first time, had a Christopher Reeve/Superman flying for the first time feel to it. “Spider-Man” feels a little dated now in this new era of superhero movies, but it is still an undeniable classic.
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
Back in darker times, when we were all convinced Spider-Man would never be a part of Marvel Studios, this was the best we thought we would get from a Spider-Man film post-Sam Raimi. Andrew Garfield was a pretty good Spider-Man and an even better Peter Parker, if for no other reason than he looked like he was drawn by classic Spider-Man artist Mark Bagley. We get a well-put-together Spider-Man suit that takes influence from the big-eyed comic-book versions of the ’90s, which makes up for how bad all the villains look. Hipster Harry Osborn (Dane DeHaan) works well as a friend from Peter’s past but not as the next Green Goblin. Jamie Foxx’s Electro takes on a nerdy, Jim Carrey/Riddler personality that feels too comic book-ish even for a superhero film, and Paul Giamatti’s Rhino isn’t even worth mentioning. So heavy is the shadow of Marvel Studios at this point that not even the strong chemistry of Garfield and Emma Stone’s Gwen Stacy could save the franchise that ended with this installment. This movie gave us a beautifully-executed Stacy death scene, one of the most powerful moments in the history of Spider-Man comics, and it wasn’t enough. At this point, Sony knew they needed the Marvel Studios touch.
5. The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)

Making a movie when you’ve got a great idea is one thing. Making a movie because you don’t want to lose the rights to one of the most popular superheroes ever is another. Raimi and Maguire walking away from “Spider-Man 4″ gave birth to “The Amazing Spider-Man,” a good movie that exists because Sony thought it had to, not because fans were clamoring for it. Garfield shows some decent Spidey-potential, as a New York-accented, joke-cracking version who’s likable but working with a not-so-great Spidey suit (it got better in the sequel, see above) and perhaps the least thrilling Spider-Man movie villain ever, Rhys Ifan’s Lizard.
6. Spider-Man 3 (2007)

The “Spider-Man” movie that must not be named. Raimi got a villain and a plot line that he was rumored to have wanted no part of (Venom and his black, alien suit that takes over Spider-Man for a bit), and we got a Spidey-movie that looks like something no one wanted to make. Once Maguire starts dancing, we know this is not going to be one of the all-time-great Spidey-films. The love story of Peter and Mary Jane seems to all but disappear amid drama. Venom, perhaps the most intense, imposing Spider-Man villain of all, is played by someone from That 70s Show, and even Aunt May looks like she realizes this was all a bad idea. They couldn’t even get black-suit Spider-Man right, giving him a regular Spidey-suit painted black instead of the classic all-black, no webbing version in the comics. The best part of this movie: Thomas Haden Church’s sympathetic Sandman.

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Honduran Fish Rain

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Can it rain fish? or frogs? or alligators?

This weather phenomenon was probably best imagined in the movie Magnolia (1999, clip below).

When studying weather phenomena, it's a good idea to assume — at least at the outset — that whatever bizarre event has been reported is probably real. Because although it seems hard to embrace the idea of, say, St. Elmo's fire or crimson rains, the truth is that they exist. As do balls of lighting. And blue moons. And pigs flying (Live Science Fishy Rain to Fire Whirlwinds).

All right, let's back up, because it's probably not entirely fair to say that pigs can fly. Unless, of course, they're caught in some sort of tornado-like vortex that sends them sailing through the air. Technically, we'd be seeing flying pigs due to a weather phenomenon (10 Scientifically Sound Weather Superstitions). In much the same way, we can say with some certainty that fish really do rain from the sky. 


Although rare, there are numerous instances of fish falling down from the skies. Of course, the fish do not really "rain" in the sense of condensing out of water vapor. The fish that fall from the sky are just fish that used to be in lakes, rivers or the sea. So how do the fish get in the sky? 


Scientists have long posited that waterspouts — a twister-like vortex that forms over a body of water — might be picking up schools of fish or frogs and then dropping them on land when the spout hits the shore and dissipates (Can it Rain Frogs, Fish and other Objects?).


According to Bill Evans' meteorology book It's Raining Fish and Spiders, creatures fall from the sky about forty times a year. All sorts of creatures have been reported raining down, including snakes, worms, and crabs, but fish and frogs are the most common. Even squid and alligators have been reported to fall from the sky. 

Often, the process of being swept high into the clouds encases these creatures in a layer of ice or hail that may still remain after they have plummeted back to earth. Raining creatures encased in blocks of ice can be very dangerous and have been known to smash through car windshields.

That brings us to this. . . .
La Unión, a small rural community in Honduras, where residents report an annual “rain fish” and where, four days before, locals recovered silver sardines that had supposedly fallen from the sky.
ADRIANA ZEHBRAUSKAS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

YORO, Honduras — Things don’t come easy in La Unión, a small community on the periphery of Yoro, a farming town in north-central Honduras.


Poverty is universal, jobs are scarce, large families are crammed into mud-brick homes and meals often are constituted of little more than the subsistence crops residents grow — mainly corn and beans.

But every once in a while an amazing thing happens, something that makes the residents of La Unión feel pretty special.

The skies, they say, rain fish.

It happens every year — at least once and often more, residents say — during the late spring and early summer. And only under specific conditions: a torrential downpour, thunder and lightning, conditions so intense that nobody dares to go outside.

Once the storm clears, the villagers grab buckets and baskets and head down the road to a sunken pasture where the ground will be covered in hundreds of small, silver-colored fish.
Residents of La Unión say that every year during the months of May through August, a heavy storm will form, and the following day fish are found scattered over a field.
ADRIANA ZEHBRAUSKAS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

For some, it is the only time of the year they will have a chance to eat seafood.

“It’s a miracle,” explained Lucio Pérez, 45, a farmer who has lived in the La Unión community for 17 years. “We see it as a blessing from God.”

Mr. Pérez has heard the various scientific theories for the phenomenon. Each, he says, is riddled with uncertainty.

“No, no, there’s no explanation,” he asserted, shaking his head. “What we say here in Yoro is that these fish are sent by the hand of God.”

The phenomenon has happened in and around the town for generations, residents say, from time to time shifting locations. It migrated to La Unión about a decade ago.

“Nobody elsewhere thinks it rains fish,” said Catalina Garay, 75, who, with her husband, Esteban Lázaro, 77, raised nine children in their adobe home in La Unión. “But it rains fish.”

Some residents attribute the occurrence to the prayers of Manuel de Jesús Subirana, a Catholic missionary from Spain who in the mid-1800s, asked God to help ease the Yoro region’s hunger and poverty. Soon after he issued his plea, the legend goes, the fish rain began.

Mr. Subirana’s remains are buried in the city’s main Catholic church, on Yoro’s central square.

“The people loved him a lot,” said José Rigoberto Urbina Velásquez, Yoro’s municipal manager. “There are so many stories about him that you’d be surprised.”

Scientifically inclined residents posit that the fish may dwell in subterranean streams or caverns. These habitats overflow during big rainstorms, and the rising water flushes the fish to ground level. Once the rain stops and the flooding recedes, the fish are left stranded.

Another theory is that water spouts suck the fish from nearby bodies of water — perhaps even the Atlantic Ocean, about 45 miles away — and deposit them in Yoro. (In that way, fish would indeed fall from the sky, but the hypothesis does not explain how the spouts score direct hits on the same patches of turf year after year.)

If anyone has done a scientific study of the phenomenon, it is not widely known here. And anyway, a fair number of townspeople probably would not want one.

For them, religion provides the necessary explanation.

“The people have an intense faith,” said Mr. Urbina, who embraces the more scientific explanations for the phenomenon. “You can’t tell them ‘no’ because it will anger them.”
Esteban Lozaro and Catalina Garay in their home in La Unión.
ADRIANA ZEHBRAUSKAS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Nobody has actually seen a fish fall from the sky, but residents say that is only because nobody dares leave home during the kinds of powerful storms that bring the fish.

“It’s a secret that only our Lord knows,” said Audelia Hernández Gonzalez, the pastor at one of four evangelical churches in La Unión. “It’s a great blessing because this comes from the heavens.”

“Look,” she continued, “people who are least able to eat fish can now eat fish.”

The harvest becomes a communal affair for La Union’s 200 or so homes, and everyone shares in the bounty. Those who collect the most redistribute their fish to families who are unable to get to the field in time to collect their share, the pastor said.

Peddling the catch is prohibited. “You can’t sell the blessing of the Lord,” she explained.

The phenomenon has become intricately woven into the identity of Yoro and its population of about 93,000.

“For us it’s a source of pride,” said Luis Antonio Varela Murillo, 65, who has lived his entire life in the town. “When we identify ourselves, we say, ‘I’m from the fish rain place.’”

“What we don’t like is that a lot of people don’t believe it,” he added. “They say it’s pure superstition.”
Catalina Garay held bones from fish that supposedly fell during the storm a few days earlier and were cooked and eaten by the family.
ADRIANA ZEHBRAUSKAS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

For about two decades, the occurrence has been celebrated in an annual festival that features a parade and a street carnival. Young women compete to be elected Señorita Lluvia de Peces — Miss Fish Rain; the winner of the pageant rides a parade float dressed like a mermaid.

Yet, beyond the festival, there are no indicators in town of the phenomena’s central importance: no monuments, no plaques, no fish-shaped souvenirs on sale at shops around town.

Mr. Urbina said that the previous municipal administration had a golden opportunity to do something meaningful. Planners had drawn up a design for a fountain that would be illuminated at night.

But in place of a fountain, officials erected a sculpture of a mushroom — perplexing many.

“I don’t know what happened, but a mushroom appeared,” Mr. Urbina said.

Even if the municipality has underplayed the marketing potential of the fish rain, however, the Catholic Church has not.

In 2007, an office of the Jesuits in St. Louis conducted a fund-raising campaign that included a solicitation letter evoking the fish rain.

“Each gift, each prayer, is like one of the ‘peces’ found during each year’s ‘Rain of Fish,’” the letter said, using the Spanish word for fish. “And every one of these blessings, no matter how large or small, will bring much-needed relief to someone in need.”

The Jesuits have maintained a longstanding mission in Yoro.

The Rev. John Willmering, one of the mission’s current priests, is an American from St. Louis who has been living in Honduras for 49 years, much of that time in Yoro.

When he first moved to the Yoro region, he said, the population was majority Catholic. But since then, he said, the Catholic Church has “lost some ground.” The population is now about a third Catholic, he estimated, with the rest split roughly between evangelicals and those who adhere to no religion.

He is coy on the subject of the fish rain, allowing plenty of room for the townspeople’s religious explanations.

“I think most people who would investigate it would say there is a scientific explanation for it,” he said, choosing his words carefully.

But in the absence of such investigations, he continued, faith can fill the gap.

“It works with natural phenomenon when you need it,” he said, the suggestion of a smile tugging at the corner of his mouth. “I mean, God is behind everything.”

Florida Mosquito Season

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It is always mosquito season in Florida, but late summer to fall is particularly painful in recent years.  Why?  Partly due to Republican control of Florida and their small government ethos which included eliminating funding for mosquito control districts in order to cut property taxes by a couple dollars per year.  There is less money for spraying that was once taken for granted.  Mosquito control districts still exist, but residents often must call the district and ask them to spray in a particular area.  See the complete list of Florida Mosquito Control Programs HERE.
Zika Virus vector mosquito (Aedes albopictus) Asian Tiger Mosquito
Another part of the problem is the growing mountains of trash across Florida. Litter abounds and mosquitoes love it.  Most species of mosquito can reproduce in as little standing water as a bottle cap.  Again, no bottle return laws in Florida, no litter pick up, no roadside maintenance = major nuisance bugs.  This year the mosquitoes are particularly bad from Okeechobee south into the Upper Florida Keys.
A mosquito meter indicating that it is a "blood donor day" for the bugs at the entrance to Collier-Seminole State Park near Naples on the old Tamiami Trail (Hwy 90 east).  They weren't kidding either.  On a recent afternoon one just stepped out of the car to be swarmed by hundreds of the voracious insects.
The insects are vectors for more diseases than any other animal on the planet and one should take precautions to avoid bites whenever possible.

Therefore buzzing mosquitoes, itchy bites, and spray-on repellents are all part of outdoor summer Florida fun, and for some of us, they’re unavoidable.  

Natives know to wear long sleeves or hoodies, long pants, and flap hats that cover the ears and neck, but protective clothing can be very painful for newcomers to our hot and humid climate.  

If you feel as if you have a huge mosquito target on your back—or arm, or leg—it’s not in your head. Here’s why, and what you can do about it.
Why Mosquitoes Prefer Some People Over Others

“The phenomenon does exist, and you can demonstrate that scientifically,” James Logan, head of the Department of Disease Control at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said of the insects’ apparent preference for some people. “You can also show that’s due to body odor.”

Mosquitoes hunt using all of their senses, but smell is a predominant factor. A higher metabolism, higher body temperature and more sweat make you more likely to be bitten. But a person’s scent is just one element. Mosquitoes are attracted to the lactic acid your body produces, the carbon dioxide you exhale and the natural bacteria that live on your skin.

“The good news is that these people smell normal, so they smell like a human being,” Professor Logan said. “The bad news is that they will probably always be that level of attractiveness.”

Professor Logan and his team are studying the genetic reasons for this attraction, as well as natural repellents produced by people’s bodies.

“If we identify the genes that control the production of natural repellents and susceptibility to mosquitoes, we can develop a drug that would keep mosquitoes away rather than putting DEET on,” he said.

Professor Logan is a bit of a hunk and media sensation in some parts.  More on him below.

Keep Mosquitoes at Bay Before They Bite

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend using a repellent registered by the Environmental Protection Agency. The most popular and accessible form of E.P.A.-approved repellent is DEET, short for N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide.

You shouldn’t be fooled by higher DEET concentrations on repellent bottles, however. Unlike the SPF rating in sunscreens, higher concentrations of DEET don’t mean more protection. Instead, the higher the percentage of DEET in a repellent, the longer it will be effective before you have to reapply.


You should know that DEET will eat the paint off of a car so consider that before applying it to your skin.  It is a toxic chemical.  Studies have shown up to half of people that use DEET products exhibit negative symptoms such as rashes, skin irritation, numb or burning lips, nausea, headaches, dizziness and difficulty concentrating.  And if you ever get DEET in your eyes or if it travels to sensitive regions of the human body, its game over.  Severe burning and distress can occur.  Of course the upside is that DEET is very effective.

Janet McAllister, a research entomologist for the C.D.C.’s division of vector-borne diseases in Fort Collins, Colo., recommends visiting the E.P.A.’s repellent-finder website to choose the right one for your needs.

“If you’re going to be outdoors for eight hours, you might want to try a higher concentration repellent, but if you’re only outdoors gardening for maybe an hour or two, you could use a lower concentration,” Dr. McAllister said.
And those citronella candles — do they work?

“No,” Dr. McAllister said, “not unless you’re standing directly over the candle. It’s the smoke that repels them, not the citronella.”

“They’re very hard to fool,” she added. “Even if you’re standing next to a mosquito trap, they can still tell a live animal from not.”

Leigh Krietsch Boerner, science editor for The Wirecutter and The Sweethome, product review websites owned by The New York Times, recommends a “dry” insect repellent spray with 25 percent DEET.

“We don’t recommend using higher than 30 percent of DEET for anything,” Ms. Boerner said. She and The Sweethome team tested how different repellents dried, smelled and felt on the skin. They applied some to fabric to make sure it dried quickly, didn’t leave residue and didn’t stain clothing.

Dry versions typically spray on lightly and contain a small amount of cornstarch, which leaves your skin feeling dry after application and avoids that oily sensation that comes with other repellent sprays. The downside to dry sprays, however, is that cornstarch (or talc, in some sprays) can leave a white powder on clothing, but it can be easily brushed off, Ms. Boerner said.

Dr. Mark Fradin, a clinical associate professor of dermatology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, has studied the efficacy of repellents. He recommends a three-pronged approach to prevention: avoid mosquitoes’ natural habitat, apply repellent to skin and apply repellent to clothing.

Similarly, when you’re applying repellent, don’t skimp. Many people treat it as if it has a “cloaking effect,” and that won’t protect you at all.

“A dot behind each ear or on each wrist will not set up a force field,” Dr. Fradin said. “If you skip a one-inch swath, they’ll find it.”

For decades, people used DEET for personal protection until serious toxicity concerns surrounding environmental and health hazards surfaced in the 1980s. While the Environmental Protection Agency has since declared that high doses aren't toxic for humans and the CDC endorses DEET, the compound still incites a soupçon of anxiety in some and is unpopular among parents of young children.

Consequently, a host of DEET alternatives have come on the scene. As of April 2005, the CDC endorsed two additional repellent agents—picaridin, a colorless and odorless chemical, and the all-natural oil of lemon eucalyptus. While DEET is believed to disable the insect's antennae receptors—thwarting its ability to detect body heat, carbon dioxide, or lactic acid, the three clues that an all-you-can-eat blood buffet is near—picaridin forms a barrier on the human skin, similarly deterring hungry insects. The stinky oil of lemon eucalyptus confuses the bugs, masking both carbon dioxide and lactic acid exhalations.

Treat Bites the Right Way

Even with preparation, you’re likely to get at least a few bites over the course of the summer, especially if you’re more prone to bites than others. When it comes to treatment, Dr. Fradin recommends ice, a low-potency hydrocortisone and simple patience.

“We try to dissuade people from using a topical Benadryl cream because of the risk of sensitivity or reaction,” he said. He also recommends staying away from caladryl and calamine lotions for the same reason. Many turn to them to alleviate itching, but these may be better options for skin irritation from something like poison ivy.

“I don’t think caladryl does much for insect bites,” Dr. Fradin said.

Should you have an intense reaction to a mosquito (or other insect) bite, prescription-strength steroids may be needed, and you should consult your doctor. You should try not to scratch, and instead gently tap the area around the bite to alleviate itching. After that, you just have to wait it out. Dr. Fradin offered one crumb of comfort.

“It will eventually stop itching,” he said.
Dr. James Logan, entomologist, studies mosquitoes from around the world in an effort to make them less dangerous.  The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine keeps mosquitoes in a cavern beneath the streets of London.  The bowls contain mosquito larvae in water, while the boxes are where adult mosquitoes live.
The Hunk Mosquito Doctor

You can't hear it over the noise of London's traffic. But it's there. That faint, whining hum. Right under my feet, thousands of mosquitoes are dining on human blood.

To visit them, you have to go through a sliding glass door into the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. This school started as a hospital on the Thames River, where doctors treated sailors returning from faraway places with strange parasites.

Today, the building holds countless exotic diseases that you hope you'll never catch. The mosquitoes carry just a few of them, and their keeper is an entomologist named Dr. James Logan.

To get to them, you have to go underground, then through two sets of doors and a net, and into the restricted access room.

"We don't want any mosquitoes to escape onto the streets of London, obviously, because we've got tropical mosquitoes here," says Logan.

On the side of the net with the mosquitoes, it feels like the worst kind of August afternoon. Humid, hot and still — just the way mosquitoes like it. We're in low caverns that were built almost 100 years ago, and we have to duck so we don't hit our heads.

"Luckily we have quite short people who work in our insectaries," Logan says. "But these rooms are part of the vaults of the building. At one time during [World War II], for example, they were used as shelters."

Clear plastic boxes line the walls, each one holding hundreds of mosquitoes. Some are from Pakistan, others from Tanzania. There are mosquitoes that can carry West Nile virus and dengue fever.

The really dangerous ones live in a different room, though. When you jostle a box, the mosquitoes go crazy, hungry for blood.

"What I can probably do as well, actually, is put my hand inside if you want to see them," he says.

When I press him on his willingness to be eaten by his mosquitoes, he makes a confession.

"Actually, I have to admit, I have to put my hands up and admit I don't do it myself," Logan says. "Not because I'm a wimp, but because I react really badly to mosquito bites, to that particular species. So we have some people who don't react at all, and they can do it. Or we take blood from people and feed them artificially."

Malaria and other mosquito-borne illnesses kill hundreds of thousands of people every year. This lab is doing research that could help lower that number. It's the reason people call Dr. Logan the mosquito slayer.

He cultivates these insects to learn how better to obliterate them on a massive scale.

Speaking of massive, he points out a box behind me with enormous mosquitoes, each one the size of a small beetle.

This species doesn't actually feed on humans. The larvae eat other mosquito larvae, so this is actually a beneficial kind of mosquito. I stick my microphone into the box, and that spine-tingling whine immediately pierces my ears.

Suddenly I catch a movement out of the corner of my eye. It's definitely a mosquito on the loose.

But Logan isn't worried. "It's a male," he says.

How, I ask, can you tell that the tiny thing buzzing around is a male.

"They have bushy antennae," he says, noting that only the females bite. Then he snatches it out of the air.

Dr. James Logan is an entomologist who's not afraid to squish a bug.

Hurricane Season 2017 Heats Up

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A tranquil Lake Istokpoga could use the waters from a few tropical storms as Florida's 5th largest lake's level hovers around 4.0-feet, barely navigable.


The Madden-Julian Oscillation Suggests Possible Atlantic Tropical Activity in Early August

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) suggests that the odds of a busy period in the Atlantic will be elevated in the first half of August. Each MJO phase includes a large area of rising motion, typically accompanied by showers and thunderstorms (convection), that moves east around the global tropics over the course of 40 – 60 days. 
Biscayne Channel Fishing
at Bill Baggs Cape Florida State Park


Standard dynamical and statistical models do not extend several weeks out—and even if they did, they would not be able to predict individual hurricanes with any skill, given the inevitable chaos that emerges in day-to-day weather. However, the idea of flagging a busy period based on MJO status is not as far-fetched, since we know that a favorable MJO pattern can substantially boost the likelihood of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Climatology also favors a bump-up in activity during August, as the season is normally ramping toward its September peak by then.
A nearly flat sea in Naples, for sunset on a recent July evening.

The key, of course, is whether the MJO will behave as predicted. In this case, there is a fairly strong signal in the ECMWF extended-range forecasts of MJO development in the Indian Ocean over the next few days, with the MJO impulse predicted to enter the Western Pacific around the end of July. Should this occur, the typical eastward motion of MJO phases tells us that its hurricane-friendly forward flank would enter the Eastern Pacific around the first week of August, and the Main Development Region of the Atlantic toward the second week of the month. Odds of activity over the MDR should begin to increase in association to the transition towards the convectively active phase of the MJO.

Dedicated Atlantic hurricane watchers shouldn’t turn off their attention for the next couple of weeks, though. Even if the MJO makes hurricanes more likely at particular times, it doesn’t rule them out at other times.
High water, sunny-day flooding, Biscayne National Park, July 2017.

Fujiwhara Effect
Northeast Pacific is on fire

In barely more than two weeks, five named storms have emerged in the Northeast Pacific. All of them developed in an east-west belt between 12°N and 15°N latitude, well south and southwest of Mexico. This is a traditionally fertile zone for hurricane formation, but even by those historical standards, it’s been a hyperactive couple of weeks. Klotzbach noted that only once before has the period from July 7 to 23 produced as many as five named storms in the Northeast Pacific east of 140°W.
Early morning July 25, 2017, L-R TS Greg, TS Irwin, and Hurricane Hilary lined up across the tropical eastern Pacific.  Later in the week Hilary will possibly absorb Irwin into her circulation in a rarely seen example of the Fujiwhara Effect

All three of the current systems—Tropical Storm Greg, Tropical Storm Irwin, and Hurricane Hilary—are projected to stay well out to sea over the next five days. Greg will be moving west toward increasing wind shear and drier air, and it will likely become a depression or remnant low by Wednesday. The more interesting dynamic will be the interplay between fast-intensifying Hilary (which could be a Category 2 or 3 storm as soon as Tuesday) and more slowly strengthening Irwin (likely to be a Category 1 by Wednesday). By midweek, Hilary is predicted to move within about 800 miles of Irwin, close enough to trigger Fujiwhara interaction, the process by which two tropical cyclones close to each other take on an aspect of rotation around a point in between. Because Hilary is expected to be a stronger cyclone at that point, its upper-level outflow will likely have an increasingly negative effect on Irwin’s strength.

As for where Hilary and Irwin will be headed after midweek, that’s still an open question. It’s not every day that two Northeast Pacific hurricanes undergo this strong a Fujiwhara effect. The high-resolution HWRF and HMON hurricane models are not designed to track two simultaneous storms like this over a larger domain, and global models have been wildly divergent on the outcome. By midweek, Hilary is likely to begin shunting Irwin toward the west-southwest. However, by Saturday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that Hilary will continue to march west-northwest, while Irwin—south of Hilary by this point—begins to arc back northward in Fujiwhara fashion, perhaps eventually becoming swept into Hilary’s circulation as depicted by the 0Z Monday run of the European model. Meanwhile, the 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z runs of the GFS model are consistent in angling Hilary toward the northwest and north, with Irwin on its heels. The GFS scenario would leave the door open for a substantial surge of tropical moisture into southern California and Arizona by early next week.

We’ll need several more days to see how Hilary and Irwin evolve and how this exceptionally complex pas de deux unfolds.
A model-generated forecast, extending in five-day increments from July 24 to September 2, of where upward and downward motion across the tropics at the 200-mb level (about 39,000 feet) is expected to predominate. The forecast is based on a simple technique of propagating wavelike atmospheric features related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation eastward over time. Over the Atlantic tropics, sinking air (warm colors), which now predominates, is predicted to be replaced by a tendency toward rising air (green colors) during August, which would be more favorable for the development of tropical cyclones.

Bret and Don Harbingers of an Active Hurricane Season 2017
The most dangerous hurricanes are the ones that get their start from tropical waves traversing Main Development Region (MDR), which includes the waters from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10° - 20°N, including the Caribbean Sea. Tropical waves that traverse the MDR are responsible for 85% of all major hurricanes (Category 3 and stronger). When hurricanes and tropical storms form in the MDR during June and July, it usually portends an active hurricane season, since it shows that atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to assist development of tropical waves that will come off the coast of Africa during the peak mid-August through mid-October portion of hurricane season. We’ve now had two tropical storms form in the tropical Atlantic before August 1: Bret and Don. This early season low-latitude activity is likely a harbinger of a more-active-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season.
Miami looks like an island in Biscayne Bay from about 10 miles out.

TS Bret in June and TS Don of July were at tropical storm strength for 1.25 days each, bringing the total number of MDR Atlantic named storm days for June - July 2017 thus far to 2.5. If we look at the history of MDR named storm days before August 1 in the Atlantic, we see that 2017 now ranks in the top 20 seasons for this statistic, according to a spreadsheet provided by Colorado State University’s Dr. Phil Klotzbach (where he defines the MDR as south of 23.5°N and east of 75°W). Only a few of these top-20 MDR named storm day seasons (1861, 1867, and 2013) were quiet, when measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). It should be a wake-up call that some of the most active seasons on record appear on this list:

We've Read:
In an interview at The New York Times, Mr. Bacon, 59 — good-naturedly waving to gawkers beyond a conference room window — talked about collaborating with his wife, his latest turn as a sex object and his resurrection of a long-ago role. These are edited excerpts from the conversation.

In Amazon’s “I Love Dick,” you play an artist in Marfa, Tex., who unwittingly becomes the fantasy and muse for a filmmaker played by Kathryn Hahn.

I was fascinated with the idea that this man created his celebrity in this very small pond where he knew he could become the biggest fish. Most famous people have devoted their lives to acquiring that, and you don’t necessarily know how that’s going to feel until you get it, and it may not be all it’s cracked up to be. And I think Dick is at a point in his life where he’s almost sickened by the whole thing.

Are you comfortable with fame?

I always point out that it’s 99 percent good. People will smile when they see me, or they’ll tell me that they love me. That’s not the worst thing in the course of your day. New York is probably the easiest place for me to be as long as I stay away from Midtown, because if a tourist sees you then you are part of the tour.

How about with being the target of such an intense female gaze?

When it comes to the fantasy pieces of it, it’s my job. But it’s also a collaboration between where the camera is and the way that I’m dressed and the way I look, the hair and the makeup and music. Being sexy, it’s not really actable.

At one point you’re watching Kathryn and Griffin Dunne’s characters have sex.

They called me to the set, and there’s Kathryn and Griffin in their bathrobes. And then Kathryn says: “All right, hang onto your hat, pal. We’ll see you on the other side.” I sat down in my chair as Dick, and the music starts, and here come these two naked people dancing across with our cameraman, and all three of them fly into the bed. And every once in a while he pans off to see me reacting, and what I really wanted to do was laugh hysterically just because it was so [expletive] funny.

Kathryn’s character writes you lust letters. Have you ever received one in real life?


If I have, it’s been kept from me somehow.

Syfy has greenlighted a “Tremors” pilot that picks up 25 years after your 1990 film left off.

I liked the idea that [my character] Valentine McKee, this very, very ordinary man, was thrown into this extraordinary situation where he has to truly become a hero. And what happens to this guy’s life if, after that one moment, nothing is ever quite as intense? But they come back! Believe me: We’re going to have monsters.

Other reboots of “Tremors” have failed. What makes you think you can succeed?
Uhh — I’m in it?

Dozens of borrowers have successfully defeated creditors in court.  
Maybe you can too.
There are countless advertisements on the internet and late-night television promising the indebted an easy way out. Just spend a few thousand bucks, and poof—that debt is gone. For some types of student loans, this too-good-to-be-true scenario has proven out: Hiring an attorney can, in certain cases, get massively indebted borrowers out from under hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans.
The reason is as simple as it is astonishing: Some creditors trying to collect on private student loans haven’t been able to prove in court that they actually own the debt in question, prompting judges to let borrowers off the hook. There are real risks, however, even if the prospect of dodging a massive debt seems tempting. Here’s a guide to how it can work—and what happens if you fight and lose.

Why Student Debt Collectors Are Vulnerable

Thousands of Americans have been sued in the past few years for allegedly defaulting on student loans owned by a group of investment vehicles known as the National Collegiate Student Loan Trusts. These 15 trusts, created from 2001 to 2007, claim to own billions of dollars in private student loans, the type made without government backing. The trusts claim to have purchased the loans from banks and other lenders shortly after the loans were made to students. When debtors miss months of required payments, collectors working for these trusts initiate court proceedings to recoup the borrowed funds. 
Most of the time, the trusts are successful. A typical case might go like this: A borrower doesn’t show up to court, the trust gets a default judgment as a result, and the borrower is forced to pay off the debt—often a paycheck at a time—under a court order. For borrowers who lose these cases, the debt nightmare really begins.
But these cases can also be a way out of debt, as dozen of borrowers have found. All they needed was a bit of money to fund a legal gambit and beat back the debt collectors.
To understand why some Americans have successfully delayed or even canceled what seemed like an inevitable day of reckoning, it’s important to know that creditors generally can’t come after you unless they can prove you owe them money. The various National Collegiate trusts are having difficulty doing that, according to court records and debtors’ attorneys. (For more, read this Bloomberg Businessweek story from 2015 and a follow-up report this week in the New York Times.)
The reason has to do with the mundane business of transferring and storing paperwork—loan documents, promissory notes, and the like. When National Collegiate purchased loans from banks, it presumably had a record documenting whose loan it purchased, how much was owed, when the loan was originated, and other pertinent details.
But when it comes time for the trusts’ debt collectors to prove that ownership, facing down a delinquent borrower with legal representation in a courtroom, the records often turn out to be missing. Former students who readily acknowledge that they borrowed money from, say, Bank of America Corp. to pay for college are able to get debt-collection lawsuits dismissed by arguing that they never borrowed from a National Collegiate trust. If the trust can’t prove transfer of the loan with careful documentation, there’s no way to collect.
It’s an echo of what occurred when millions of Americans faced foreclosure proceedings in the aftermath of the financial crisis, when loan companies took paperwork shortcuts—“robosigning” is a popular term—to seize homes in what state and federal regulators say was against the law. Similar issues have cropped up in various kinds of debt-collection lawsuits, such as those involving soured credit card debt.

How to Get Out of Debt

David Addleton, an attorney in Macon, Ga., said he’s represented at least a dozen clients who were sued by various National Collegiate trusts attempting to collect on defaulted student debt. Every case was dismissed before trial.
“All they care about is getting a default judgment,” he said of National Collegiate’s debt collectors. “All you have to do is show up and defend. They always dismiss.”
Addleton charges his clients 10 percent of the face value of the debt, he said, which typically ranges from $30,000 to $60,000. Borrowers have to pay regardless of the outcome of the case.
Here’s what typically happens when attorneys representing National Collegiate sue a delinquent borrower. When the lawsuit is filed, the attorneys produce a copy of the borrower’s promissory note and documents that claim the loan was transferred from the original lender to a National Collegiate entity, according to a Bloomberg News review of court cases across a handful of states. The problem for National Collegiate is that the documents allegedly showing the transfer don’t actually state whose loans were transferred. The pages that list which loans were transferred are often blank. (Here’s an example.) 
In cases filed in Ohio, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Kentucky, among other states, judges have sided with borrowers when they’re forced to rule on whether National Collegiate entities in fact own the alleged debt, because the trusts can’t show that the particular borrower’s loans were transferred to National Collegiate.
In some cases, debt collectors working for National Collegiate swear upon penalty of perjury that they’ve reviewed the underlying documentation and that it shows the targeted debtor’s loans were transferred to National Collegiate. Sometimes it works; other times, like in one California case, it doesn’t. The federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has been investigating the issue since at least 2015, agency records and court documents show. (Cognition Financial Corp., which created the National Collegiate trusts when it was called First Marblehead Corp., didn’t respond to a request for comment.)
Borrowers who successfully get the lawsuits dismissed generally can be sued again within a certain time frame established by each state. After the statute of limitations runs out, borrowers are effectively in the clear.

What Happens If You Lose

For Addleton, borrowers now have every reason to test the documentation underlying private student debt. “No one should agree to pay these people one penny,” he said.
But if you can afford to make your payments, this strategy probably isn’t for you. First, deliberately defaulting on your debt can have ruinous consequences for your credit, which can affect your ability to borrow, secure housing, or obtain a new job. Second, National Collegiate sues borrowers it thinks are in default. Why risk ruining your credit and possibly losing a lawsuit? Third, there’s a real chance you can lose if you pursue this route. A courtroom loss could stick you with National Collegiate’s legal fees, on top of the debt you’d be ordered to repay and any lawyer’s fees of your own.
It’s a gamble that can slash a student debt—or leave a litigant even deeper in the hole.




Invasion of the Lone Star Tick

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I enjoy reading instagram posts where writers expound on the virtues of exploring Florida's woods and swamps.  I agree that there is spectacular beauty to be found in the remaining natural areas of Florida but there are also a multitude of blood-suckers and other hazards awaiting any mammal that ventures into those wild areas.  I particularly hate ticks though I'm not fond of mosquitoes, biting flies, bats. . . 

Ticks are small arachnids, part of the order Parasitiformes.  Along with mites, they constitute the subclass Acari.  Ticks are ectoparasites (external parasites), living by feeing on the blood of mammals, birds, and sometimes reptiles and amphibians.  Ticks had evolved by the Cretaceous period (at least 70 million years ago, long before man).  Widely distributed around the world they are especially prevalent in warm, humid climates (like Florida).

Almost all ticks belong to one or two major families, the Ixodidae or hard ticks, which are difficult to crush, and the Argasidae or soft ticks.  Adults have ovoid or pear-shaped bodies which become engorged with blood when thy feed, and eight legs.
I always wear protection in the form of long sleeves, head cover, long pants, boots, and sometimes DEET in addition to everything else.  Still, I have recently encountered ticks several times in my travels and these 2017 ticks seem immune to all my defensive strategies, somehow finding their way to my back, thighs, or buttocks.

Ticks can be found throughout the year in Florida, but there are seasonal differences in the abundance of nymphs and adults. This summer has been hot and damp and ticks are flourishing, spreading far beyond their normal range. We've encountered from woodland parks, to the Everglades, to our front door.  July is typically peak tick season but with longer, hotter falls ticks can be encountered well into December or January in Florida.

Ticks in either nymph or adult stage can transmit any diseases they carry, so quick removal of ticks and prevention of tick bites are both important. There can be an increased risk of disease from nymphs because they are often small enough to avoid being noticed.

From our years of hiking Florida we've found ticks to be most prevalent in sandweed around lakeshores and in any kind of cedar, but this year they're being encountered just about everywhere.  Last week I picked up one while mowing the lawn.  I live on a large, rural property, but normally wouldn't encounter ticks unless I was working in high grass, brush, scrub, or trees.

Lone Star Tick
(Amblyomma americanum)
The lone star is the most common human-biting tick in Florida and easily recognizable. Females have a light-colored dot on their back. Lone star ticks carry and transmit ehrlichiosis and southern tick-associated rash illness (STARI) which is also known as Masters disease.

Ehrlichiosis is the general name used to describe several bacterial diseases that affect animals and humans. Human ehrlichiosisis a disease caused by at least three different ehrlichial species in the United States: Ehrlichia chaffeensis, Ehrlichia ewingii, and a third Ehrlichia species provisionally called Ehrlichia muris-like (EML). Ehrlichiae are transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected tick. The lone star tick (Amblyomma americanum) is the primary vector of both Ehrlichia chaffeensisand and in the United States. Typical symptoms include: fever, headache, fatigue, and muscle aches. Usually, these symptoms occur within 1-2 weeks following a tick bite. Ehrlichios is diagnosed based on symptoms, clinical presentation, and later confirmed with specialized laboratory tests. The first line treatment for adults and children of all ages is doxycycline. Ehrlichiosis and other tickborne diseases can be prevented.


Lone star tick a concern, but not for Lyme disease
Many people, even health care providers, can be confused about whether the lone star tick causes Lyme disease. It does not. Patients bitten by lone star ticks will occasionally develop a circular rash similar to the rash of early Lyme disease. The cause of this rash has not been determined; however, studies have shown that the rash is not caused by Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease.

This condition has been named southern tick-associated rash illness (STARI). The rash may sometimes be accompanied by fatigue, headache, fever, and muscle pains. In the cases of STARI studied to date, the rash and accompanying symptoms have resolved following treatment with an oral antibiotic (doxycycline), but it is unknown whether this medication speeds recovery. STARI has not been linked to arthritis, neurologic disease, or chronic symptoms. Researchers once hypothesized that STARI was caused by the spirochete, Borrelia lonestari, however further research did not support this idea. The cause of STARI remains unknown.

Lone star ticks have NOT been shown to transmit Borrelia burgdorferi, the cause of Lyme disease. In fact, their saliva has been shown to kill Borrelia .
The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, is found throughout the eastern, southeastern and south-central states. The distribution, range and abundance of the lone star tick have increased over the past 20-30 years, and lone star ticks have been recorded in large numbers as far north as Maine and as far west as central Texas and Oklahoma. All three life stages (larva, nymph, adult) of the lone star tick will feed on humans, and may be quite aggressive. Lone star ticks will also feed readily on other animals, including dogs and cats, and may be brought into the home on pets. The saliva from lone star ticks can be irritating; redness and discomfort at a bite site does not necessarily indicate an infection.

People should monitor their health closely after any tick bite, and should consult their physician if they experience a rash, fever, headache, joint or muscle pains, or swollen lymph nodes within 30 days of a tick bite. These can be signs of a number of tickborne diseases.

Tick-borne illness may be prevented by avoiding tick habitat (dense woods and brushy areas), using insect repellents containing DEET or permethrin, wearing long pants and socks, and performing tick checks and promptly removing ticks after outdoor activity. Additional prevention tips are available.

Nymphs occur between February and October; adults occur April through August with a peak in July.  More on the Lone Star Tick invasion of the Northeast below.
Identification Chart for Most Common ticks
click on image for a larger view


Other Florida Tick Types
Brown Dog Tick
(Rhipicephalus sanguineus)
The brown dog tick, Rhipicephalus sanguineus Latreille, is unusual among ticks, in that it can complete its entire life cycle indoors. Because of this, it can establish populations in colder climates, and has been found in much of the world. Many tick species can be carried indoors on animals, but cannot complete their entire life cycle inside. Although R. sanguineus will feed on a wide variety of mammals, dogs are the preferred host in the U.S. and appear to be required to develop large infestations.

The brown dog tick feeds mainly on dogs and is usually found in areas where dogs frequent. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recently identified the brown dog tick as a vector for Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) in the southwestern United States and along the Mexican border.
American Dog Tick

American dog ticks are usually found on dogs, but they will also attach to other mammals and humans. Unlike the brown tick, it is typically an outdoor tick, not a household pest. This tick can carry RMSF.

Nymphs feed on rodents, but adults will attach to humans. Adults are abundant from March through September.

American dog ticks can also cause paralysis in dogs and children when the ticks attach to the base of the skull or the spinal column. Paralysis is caused by a toxic secretion. Recovery usually occurs within 24 hours of removing the tick.

Gulf Coast Tick
(Amblyomma maculatum)
This tick is prevalent in southeastern states. It looks similar to the American dog tick but has larger mouthparts. Gulf Coast ticks transmit a less severe RMSF relative, Rickettsia parkeri.

Nymphs are found in early spring (January to March), and adults from March through September. Adults are commonly found on the ears of large mammals, such as cattle.

The ticks are ectoparasites that feed on a variety of birds and mammals, and will readily bite humans. Gulf Coast ticks are of increasing concern because of their ability to transmit several pathogens of veterinary and medical importance.

Black-Legged Tick or Deer Tick
(Ixodes scapularis)
The black-legged tick (or deer tick) is mostly known as the carrier of Lyme disease. Black-legged ticks also carry babesiosis and HGA (human granulocytic anaplasmosis).

Human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA) is a tick-borne, infectious disease caused by Anaplasma phagocytophilum, an obligate intracellular bacterium that is typically transmitted to humans by ticks of the Ixodes ricinus species complex, including Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus in North America. These ticks also transmit Lyme disease and other tick borne diseases.

Nymphs are found April through August. Adults are common throughout the winter (September through May).

Prevention and Control
Ticks must feed for several hours to transmit disease organisms, so quick identification and removal help reduce tick-borne disease. To remove a tick, grasp it on its mouthparts with tweezers and pull it straight out with firm pressure.
To avoid tick bites and diseases:

Remove ticks from pets and people as soon as noticed.

In tick-infested areas, keep clothing buttoned and tucked in, including placing pants inside boots.

Wear light-colored clothing to easily spot ticks.

Apply repellents to uncovered skin.

Avoid touching plants in tick-infested areas.

Check for ticks after frequenting tick-infested areas.

If you live in wooded areas, check for ticks daily.

Clear brush along pathways and frequented areas.

Landscape for tick-free zones. Consult with your local Extension agent for management tips.
Tick Diseases Prevalent in Florida
Several tick diseases are present in Florida, and others can be contracted during travel.

If you are bitten by a tick and become ill, contact your physician. Depending on the disease and individual reactions, it may take several weeks for symptoms to appear.

Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
Rocky Mountain spotted fever is considered the most severe tick-borne disease in the US, with a high mortality rate among untreated cases. RMSF has a disease presence in Florida, with the number of cases increasing in the summer months. The American dog tick is the main transmitter in Florida.

Symptoms: red, spotted rash after onset of fever; vomiting; headache; lack of appetite; and muscle aches.

The rash only appears in 60%–70% of RMSF cases. Many of the other symptoms are non-specific, so tell your physician about any tick bites.

Rickettsia parkeri
The Gulf Coast tick transmits Rickettsia parkeri, a RMSF relative; the lone star tick may be another vector. R. parkeri may be misdiagnosed as RMSF. Unlike RMSF, R. parkeri will cause the bite site to resemble a sore or pimple.

Symptoms: inoculation eschar (sore), fever, fatigues, headaches, muscle pain, and general rash.

Southern Tick-Associated Rash Illness (STARI)
STARI is a Lyme-like disease transmitted by the lone star tick. STARI differs from Lyme disease in that chronic symptoms (e.g., arthritis, neurological symptoms) likely do not occur.

Symptoms: “bull’s eye” rash (erythema migraines), fatigue, fever, headache, and muscle and joint pain.

Lyme Disease
Fewer cases of lyme disease occur in Florida than in the northeastern US. In 2010, 56 confirmed cases were reported in Florida, compared with 4000+ in many northeastern states (CDC statistics). This is mainly attributed to two factors:

Tick population life cycles are different in Florida compared to northern states.
Black-legged ticks feed on Florida’s large population of reptiles and lizards, which are not reservoirs for the disease.

Of the Lyme disease cases reported from 1999-2008, 30% were acquired in Florida.

Symptoms: “Bull’s eye” rash, fever, headaches, chills, fatigue, and stiff neck or muscle aches. Late-stage symptoms may not appear until months or years after the bite.

The rash only appears in 60%–80% of Lyme cases and may not be at the bite site.

Ehrlichiosis and Anaplasmosis
Ehrlichiosis (HME) and anaplasmosis (HGA) are transmitted by the lone star tick and black-legged tick, respectively. Most HGA cases are acquired outside of Florida. These diseases are difficult to diagnose because the symptoms are similar to other diseases.

Symptoms: Fever, headache, fatigue, muscle aches, nausea, joint pain, diarrhea, and confusion.

Babesiosis
Babesiosis is not considered a significant issue in Florida and the disease is not currently reportable. It is transmitted by black-legged ticks. Infections are thought to be asymptomatic. Those who do get symptoms experience fever, headache, and muscle weakness.

By ANERI PATTANI   JULY 24, 2017, The New York Times

SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. — This town is under siege from tiny invaders.

A doctor at Southampton Hospital recently pulled a tick off a woman’s eyeball. After a 10-minute walk outside, a mother reported finding a tick affixed to her 7-year-old daughter’s buttocks.

Another mother called the hospital in a “hysterical state,” according to the nurse who answered, because a tick had attached itself to her son’s penis.

Like many towns across the country, Southampton is seeing a tick population that is growing both in numbers and variety — at a time when ticks are emerging as a significant public health danger.

“Tick-borne diseases are a very serious problem, and they’re on the rise,” said Rebecca Eisen, a research biologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“Even though you may live in an area where you didn’t have ticks in the past or your parents don’t remember having ticks, the distribution is changing,” she added. “More and more people are at risk.”

With the expansion of the suburbs and a push to conserve wooded areas, deer and mice populations are thriving. They provide ample blood meals for ticks and help spread the pests to new regions.

Originally from the Southeast, the lone star tick, for example, is heading north; it can now be found in 1,300 counties in 39 states. The blacklegged tick, also called the deer tick, is expanding its territory, too. In a recent study, Dr. Eisen reported a nearly 45 percent increase since 1998 in the number of counties with blacklegged ticks.

Thomas Mather, director of the University of Rhode Island’s TickEncounter Resource Center, said it used to get reports of three or four lone star ticks in the greater Chicago area each year. Now, it is receiving up to 15.

When a tick species marches into a new region, it poses a double-barreled threat, said Jerome Goddard, extension professor of medical and veterinary entomology at Mississippi State University.

First, the species brings diseases from its original location. Second, the ticks pick up new pathogens from animals in their new ecosystem.

Physicians and patients in a tick’s new home may be less familiar with the diseases it carries. They can overlook symptoms or attribute them to a different cause, delaying effective treatment.

The best known threat is Lyme disease. Cases in the United States increased from about 12,000 annually in 1995 to nearly 40,000 in 2015. Experts say the real number of infections is likely closer to 300,000.

But scientists are finding ticks carry more than just Lyme: At least a third of known tick-borne pathogens were found in the last 20 years. Heartland virus and Bourbon virus, which can prove fatal, were discovered in just the last five years.

Powassan virus, a rare but dangerous pathogen that can cause permanent brain damage or death, can be passed from tick to human in just 15 minutes. It was discovered in 1958, and an average of seven cases are reported each year. Earlier this month, a resident of Saratoga County, N.Y., who had Powassan diseasedied.

Dr. Gary Wormser, founder of the Lyme Disease Diagnostic Center at New York Medical College, said the most worrisome tick-borne contagion he sees is babesiosis, which can cause malaria-like symptoms and require hospitalization. A few of his patients have died from it; several required intensive care.

Before 2001, babesiosis was not found in Westchester, N.Y. But Westchester Medical Center has diagnosed at least 21 cases in the past year. A studyof babesiosis in Wisconsin found a 26-fold increase in the number of cases between 2001 to 2003, and 2012 to 2015.

In places where the lone star tick is gaining prevalence, doctors also are seeing an increase in cases of alpha-gal syndrome, a strange allergy to red meat induced by tick bites.

Alpha-gal is a sugar molecule carried by the lone star tick. When the tick bites a human, it activates the immune system, which starts producing alpha-gal antibodies.

The body becomes wired to fight alpha-gal sugar molecules, which are abundant in red meat. Eating meat can trigger allergic reactions, from an itchy rash to anaphylactic shock.

Dr. Erin McGintee, an allergist and immunologist at ENT and Allergy Associates in Southampton, sees two to three cases of alpha-gal syndrome per week during tick season. Since diagnosing her first case in October 2010, she has seen more than 380 patients.

“The cases are definitely increasing over time,” she said.

That is no surprise to Karen Wulffraat, administrative director of Southampton Hospital’s Tick-Borne Disease Resource Center.

“The calls about lone star tick bites are increasing in number, even overtaking the blacklegged tick,” which is native to the Northeast, she said.

Cathy Ward and her husband bought a summer home in Southampton in 1984, and moved there permanently eight years ago.

Ms. Ward remembers taking her son Bill to the nearby wildlife refuge as a child, where he would fill his hands with birdseed and stand with his arms outstretched until birds came and perched on them.

Now when Bill Ward visits with his young daughter, Taylor, his mother tells them the refuge is off limits — it is a breeding ground for ticks.

“It wasn’t a concern when Bill was young,” Ms. Ward said. “Now you have to protect yourself all the time. You don’t know where you’re going to pick up a tick.”

She will not garden in the yard anymore, and has it sprayed for ticks annually. Despite that, her granddaughter got a tick while visiting during the Fourth of July weekend. The family found it before it had bitten her, but it was a shock nonetheless.

“It’s scary, because we don’t know which diseases they carry,” said Mr. Ward.

Brian Kelly, owner of East End Tick and Mosquito Control, has noticed the change, too. His company now sprays people’s lawns instead of just their bushes because lone star ticks are more aggressive than the native blacklegged ticks, and tend to venture further from the woods.

“People can walk across their lawn barefoot to get the newspaper and get a tick,” he said.

As human exposure to ticks continues to increase, it’s likely that even the rarest infections they carry will become more common, Dr. Goddard said.

“This really has a human toll that a lot of people don’t recognize,” he said.


Bad news for summer barbecues: the lone star tick is spreading. This tiny bloodsucker is thought to have given thousands of Americans a dangerous meat allergy, one that has many folks swearing off steaks and ribs altogether. Once thought to be confined to the southeastern United States, the allergy is appearing in people who live all the way up in northern Minnesota. The tick is moving westward, too, if reports from Kansas are any indication.


Now found in up to 30 states the Lone Star Tick will soon likely be a nationwide menace thanks to climate change.  Leading experts in human allergy, parasitology and entomology came together July 2017 to discuss the Lone Star tick, its geographic spread and the zoonotic diseases it can transmit. The panel, presented during the American Veterinary Medical Association’s annual convention.

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Grizzly Bears of the Khutzeymateen

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These are a few of the hundreds of photos I made recently while cruising in the Khutzemateen Inlet and the Khutzeymateen Provincial Park near Prince Rupert, Canada.  The Park is also referred to as the Khutzeymateen Grizzly Bear Sanctuary.


The Khutzeymateen Provincial Park [a.k.a. Khutzeymateen/K’tzim-a-deen Grizzly Bear Sanctuary] was established as a Class A Park in 1994 as the first area in Canada to be protected specifically for grizzly bears and their habitat. Class A parks are dedicated to the preservation of their natural environments for the inspiration, use and enjoyment of the public.

The park represents the first undisturbed estuary of its size (171² miles, 443² km) to be protected along the north coast of British Columbia. The topography of this land and marine sanctuary is diverse, with rugged peaks towering to 2100 metres above a valley of wetlands, old growth temperate rainforests and a large river estuary. An abundance of wildlife shares the area.
The Khutzeymateen Inlet Conservancy was established in 2008 to further enhance and ensure protection of key grizzly bear intertidal and foreshore habitats throughout the inlet. 


The Khutzeymateen group of protected areas play a key role in the conservation of grizzly bears in North America by protecting a large part of the ecosystem in which they live. Grizzly bears depend on a healthy and fully functioning ecosystem which supports a variety of animals and fish.


Coast Tsimshian First Nations depend upon this area, as they have for thousands of years, as the source of their social, economic and cultural prosperity. Coast Tsimshian continue to conduct traditional activities in the K’tzim-a-deen and provide public education to explain their relationship to the area.


The area offers incredible opportunities to view grizzly bears in their natural habitat. Human use of the area focuses on bear viewing, natural and cultural education, and traditional activities. The K'tzim-a-deen protected areas play an important role in British Columbia’s protected areas system. The protected areas are known internationally as Canada’s first Grizzly Bear sanctuary and are home to one of the highest concentrations of grizzly bears in Canada.


BC Parks, the Coast Tsimshian First Nations, and the Gitsi’is Tribe collaboratively manage the protected areas.


British Columbia Parks, Lax Kw’alaams and Commercial Bear Viewing Guides have developed a collaborative Partnership that ensures the Khutzeymateen Protected Areas are managed proactively and public access monitored conservatively to ensure the Grizzly Bears and their habitats are the first priority (tourism is not necessarily encouraged).


The bear viewing guides contribute a per person donation to the Khutzeymateen Park Enhancement Fund that collectively supports shared stewardship initiatives for Khutzeymateen Protected Areas.



When you arrive in the Khutzeymateen Inlet all visitors are required to register at the floating ranger station (green star on map above, photo below).
In order to minimize the impact to grizzly bears and ensure the safety of bears and tourists there are some basic standards that must be observed while in the Khutzeymateen.  Most of those practices involve staying a reasonable distance away from the bears and disturbing them as little as possible.  Also everyone is accompanied by a trained guide.
 Public and commercial bear viewing may have an adverse impact on grizzly bears foraging behaviors thereby reducing nutritional intake.  Disturbing bears that are not tolerate of viewing can interrupt mating, feeding, resting and other important functions.
Bears need an opportunity to secure adequate quantities of food.  Some will not tolerate humans present when they are foraging.  Park managers accept the habituation of some grizzly bears as a management strategy to ensure a safe and predictable response from bears and benign interactions between viewing groups and bears.
If a guide observes stressed behavior by bears the viewing is terminated.
 Large vessels are required to stay 75 meters away from bears while zodiacs are allowed to approach within 30 meters.  Guides maintain a deep water "barrier" between the vessels and bears.
 Land-based viewing in the Khutzeymateen is only permitted with strict limits on the islands in the main estuary center.  Land-based viewers are allowed no closer than 30 meters from bears and must maintain a watter barrier.
 In the Khutzeymateen Inlet Conservancies there is no land-based bear viewing allowed.
 In general, visitor use is not encouraged in this spectacular park, and that is a very good thing.  Here 171² miles of old growth forest will remain undisturbed for grizzly bears and other animals in perpetuity.
 The grizzly bear (Ursus arctos ssp.), is a large subspecies of brown bear that inhabited large parts of North America before European colonization.  In general bears that live near the coast (all of these pictured here) are larger than grizzlys that would be encountered inland.
Most adult female grizzlies weigh 130–180 kg (290–400 lb; pictured above and below with cubs), while adult males weigh on average 180–360 kg (400–790 lb). Average total length in this subspecies is 198 cm (6.50 ft), with an average shoulder height of 102 cm (3.35 ft) and hindfoot length of 28 cm (11 in).

We've Read:
Granite Park Chalet in Glacier National Park as seen in the 1980s
Photo:  Bert Gildart
A Night of Grizzly Terror
Patrol ranger Bert Gildart was driving downthe highest pass in Glacier National Park just after midnight on Aug. 13, 1967, when a woman’s voice suddenly crackled over his two-way radio. It was another ranger, and she had a horrifying message: A grizzly bear had mauled someone at the popular Granite Park guest chalet.

Gildart called for help, setting in motion an urgent medical mission. Hours later, as he slept in his apartment at park headquarters, a colleague knocked on his door.

“He said: ‘Bert, you’ve got to get up. There’s been a grizzly bear mauling,’ ” recalled Gildart, now 77. “I said, ‘I know.’ He said, ‘No: There’s been another one.’ ”

The information, Gildart says today, was “mind-boggling,” and for good reason. The park, nearly 1,600 square miles of stunning peaks and valleys in northwest Montana, had recorded no grizzly-caused human fatalities since it was established in 1910. Then, on one night, two bears in spots several miles apart killed two campers. Both victims were 19-year-old women.

Those attacks, which took place 50 years ago this summer, set off an immediate quest at Glacier to understand how a tragedy of such infinitesimal odds could have happened. But they also marked a turning point in relations between North Americans and the continent’s largest predators, revolutionizing how public agencies deal with bears and inspiring new paths of research on grizzly behavior. The impact of the deaths still echoed in federal officials’ recent decision to remove Yellowstone-area grizzlies from the endangered species list. 
In 1967, Bert Gildart was a 27-year-old ranger when two campers were killed in a pair of Grizzly Bear attacks in Glacier National Park
Photo:  Bert Gildart
“We’ve certainly had our share of other types of fatalities, but none of them seemed to live like that particular event does,” said John Waller, Glacier’s bear biologist. “It was a watershed moment for bear management, not just in Glacier but the whole National Park Service. It fundamentally changed how we view our relationship with bears.”

Theories about the attacks’ cause swirled in the aftermath. Perhaps lightning and dry conditions, which sparked wildfires that week, had possessed one bear to drag Julie Helgeson from the Granite Park campground where she slept and a second to mangle Michele Koons at the Trout Lake site where she camped with four friends. The women’s menstrual cycles and the possibility that someone had given the bears LSD were also suggested triggers.

But soon it became clear that the problem was far more mundane: human food and garbage.

Glacier, a park that had recorded just 110,000 visitors between 1910 and 1920, was in the late 1960s welcoming nearly 1 million people a year, and more of them were heading into the backcountry. Granite Park Chalet, a mountaintop site reachable by trail, had so many visitors in 1967 that its incinerator could not contain all their trash, and managers discarded the excess in a gully behind the facility. Soon the grizzly bears’ nightly foraging there became a tourist attraction.

Many park staffers were uncomfortable with this situation, as recounted in Jack Olsen’s 1969 book, Night of the Grizzlies.” Among them were Gildart and his friend, wildlife biologist Dave Shea. They had witnessed five bears dine on trash at the chalet days before, and both had expressed concern at park headquarters.

“It was basically an incident waiting to happen,” said Shea, 77, who worked at Glacier for 36 years.

In the Trout Lake area, meanwhile, one grizzly had spent that hot summer rummaging through garbage barrels near a collection of cabins, menacing hikers and raiding backcountry campsites. Although backpacking was becoming more popular, there “was no wilderness ethic,” Waller said: Campers would simply leave behind their trash, providing nourishment to bears smart enough to associate it with people.

Despite reports about the bear’s behavior, park officials took no action. It wasn’t that they didn’t know bears and human food were a dangerous mix, Waller said; enforcement just wasn’t a priority. Now we know that bear-caused injuries at national parks in the West were quite high at the time, but then, he said, “it all got swept under the carpet.”

The Glacier maulings also inspired a generation of scientists. Stephen Herrero had just finished his PhD in animal behavior in 1967 when he heard the news — and couldn’t stop thinking about it.

“Here was an ideal and important topic to try to understand — what went on in the minds and bodies of bears,” said Herrero, who became a leading authority on bear attacks and behavior at the University of Calgary.

“The big problem with the bears at Glacier was too many of them had learned to tolerate people more and more, and ignore people more and more, and then finally go after people themselves,” Herrero said.

The immediate response, however, was to find bears in the areas of the attacks and kill them. Within two days, rangers had fatally shot three at the chalet. Shea was among those who fired at the third, a sow with two cubs and a ripped paw pad that would have been painful, possibly increasing its aggression. Investigators concluded that this bear had likely killed Helgeson and seriously injured her boyfriend.

Gildart was deployed to track down the Trout Lake bear. He shot it two days after the attacks — an emaciated female that had glass from garbage embedded between its teeth and a mass of human hair in its stomach. Soon after, Gildart helped collect several giant burlap sacks of trash near the lake.

News of the maulings, splashed across newspapers nationwide, was a public relations crisis for the Interior Department. A few critics called on authorities to finish off the extirpation of grizzly bears that had begun as early settlers pushed West and left them in only a few patches of the United States, including Glacier.

“Some people said, we ought to go in there and hunt them all out. And that first year, that’s kind of the way I felt,” Gildart said. But he changed his mind: “We learned all these bears being seen on a regular basis were conditioned to food — and had lost their fear of people.”

That understanding triggered major changes in Glacier and elsewhere. A strict “pack in, pack out” policy was established for backcountry sites, which were also given designated cooking areas that were separate from sleeping areas. Cables or hooks for hanging food out of bears’ reach were put in place. Campers were required to reserve spots, which limited their numbers.

In a controversial decision, Yellowstone National Park managers in 1968 abruptly closed several dumps where bears had long been eating— a move researchers (and brothers) Frank and John Craighead warned would cause the bears to seek food in campgrounds or populated areas outside the park, leading to more conflicts and bear deaths. Many researchers say they were right: Within a few years, dozens of Yellowstone-area grizzlies were killed or sent to zoos, contributing to a population drop that led to their inclusion in 1975 on the endangered species list. This spring, federal officials said Yellowstone grizzlies had finally recovered enough to be delisted.
Grizzly Bear Tourists getting way too close in Glacier National Park
Photo:  Bert Gildart
Strategies for what to do about “problem bears” — the kind that seek human food — have evolved. In the early 1980s, Glacier said it would shoot or move more of them. Later, trapping and relocating prevailed, until studies revealed that the animals usually returned to where they were caught. Now the preferred method is hazing, or using things like rubber bullets and loud cracker shells, “to teach that bear no,” Waller said.

But the big idea is conflict prevention, he said. These days, Glacier regularly closes trails so grizzlies can access berry patches or carcasses without running into people. And all those bear-proof garbage cans in national parks and elsewhere bears live? They’re produced by an industry that grew out of the Glacier attacks, Herrero said.

“Tremendous progress has been made to keep bears away from these attractants,” he said. “It’s really been quite successful — not only saving people’s lives, but also saving bears’ lives.”

There are no guarantees, of course, but park officials stress that the threat from bears is very low. Grizzlies have killed eight people in Glacier since 1967, most recently in 1998, and most were food-conditioned bears. Bears, both black and grizzly, have injured about 100 people in the park’s history, usually following a “surprise encounter,” Waller said.

In 1980, Gildart was assigned to patrol Glacier’s backcountry on horseback, making sure people and bears remained separated. He gave tickets to campers who left trash and posted warning signs when he spotted bear tracks or scat, and he often encountered bears. They did what bears that don’t eat human food typically do.

“They’ve all run,” he said.

But neither he nor Shea go to Glacier anymore. It’s too crowded. The park expects to log 3 million visitors this year, many of whom act like they’re “walking in a zoo,” said Shea, who fears the potential for tragedy is rising. “The bears aren’t quite as wild as they used to be, because they’re hearing people and people noises all the time.”

The hordes inevitably mean that it is harder to keep bears and people apart, often because the people don’t heed park advice. Waller said rangers regularly find piles of blueberries and cans of cat food while on patrol — signs of attempts to lure predators that can weigh 700 pounds.

“It astounds me to see grizzly bears along a trail and people approaching within 20 or 30 feet to get pictures,” Waller said. “Really, bears are very very good to us. They’re very tolerant, because despite our best efforts, people do amazingly stupid things every year.”
Leonard Landa, Bert Gildart's partner, with the dead body of a nursing female grizzly bear who the young rangers assumed to have killed Michele Koons, and thus marked for death.
Photo:  Bert Gildart

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Can the Queen Conch be Saved from Extinction?

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A slow-moving, long-lived marine snail, the queen conch (Strombus gigas syn. Lobatus gigas) inhabits seagrass beds in Caribbean and western Atlantic Ocean waters, including those around the Florida Keys. The conch’s large, pink-lipped shell is valued among shell collectors, and its meat is a dietary staple for many Caribbean cultures. The conch has become a symbol of the relaxed pace of life in the Florida Keys, where the human natives affectionately refer to themselves as "conchs."

The queen conch refers to both the large, marine mollusk and its shell alone. Queen conchs (pronounced “konks”) are soft-bodied animals, belonging to the same taxonomic group (Mollusca) as clams, oysters, octopi, and squid. They live in shallow, warm waters on coral reefs or sea grass beds. A queen conch can reach up to 12 inches in length and can live for up to 40 years. Its shell grows as the mollusk grows, forming into a spiral shape with a glossy pink or orange interior.
Queen conch meat is consumed domestically throughout the Caribbean and exported as a delicacy. Conch shells and shell jewelry are sold to tourists and the live animals are used for the aquarium trade. Their slow growth, occurrence in shallow waters and late maturation make queen conch particularly susceptible to over-fishing, their greatest threat. Habitat degradation, over-fishing, and the use of SCUBA have led to harvest of previously unexploited populations in deeper waters.

Queen conch was once found in high numbers in the Florida Keys but, due to a collapse in conch fisheries in the 1970s, it is now illegal to commercially or recreationally harvest queen conch in Florida. The United States is responsible for the consumption of 80% of the world’s internationally traded queen conch.

International trade in the Caribbean queen conch is regulated under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) agreement, in which it is listed as Strombus gigas. This species is not endangered in the Caribbean as a whole, but is commercially threatened in numerous areas, largely due to extreme overfishing.
A Bahama Starfish (Oreaster reticulatis)
It is illegal in Florida to harvest any Bahama Starfish under any circumstances
Recreational Sea Shell Collecting in Florida
Is it legal to possess a Queen Conch shell in Florida?

Short answer is yes. Longer answer, you can have the shell as long as you had nothing to do with killing the conch that lived inside the shell. More on Florida regulations pertaining to recreational Sea Shell Collecting below.

The recreational collection of sea shells is allowed depending on whether or not the harvested sea shell contains a living organism, the type of organism it contains and where you will be collecting.

Sea shells containing live organisms cannot be sold unless the seller has a valid commercial saltwater products license.

Live oysters (68B-27, F.A.C. ) and live hard clams (quahogs) (68B-17, F.A.C.) can only be harvested in accordance FWC rules, and all species of clam, oyster or mussel can only be harvested from designated approved or conditionally approved shellfish harvesting areas that are in the open status as determined by the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

License Requirement: A Florida recreational saltwater fishing license is required in order to harvest a sea shell containing a living organism, even when harvesting from shore. See shoreline fishing FAQs for more information.

Florida Closed and Restricted Areas:
In Lee County, you may not harvest or possess any shells that contain a live organism except for oysters,hard clams (quahogs), sunray venus clams and coquinas.

In Manatee County, you may not harvest or possess more than two shells (includes echinoderms such as sand dollars and starfish) containing live organisms of any single species except for oysters,hard clams, sunray venus clams and coquinas per day.

Also, the harvest of certain species may be limited or prohibited in state or federal parks, national wildlife refuges and portions of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Interested persons should contact those park areas for further information.

Prohibited Species: All harvest of the Bahama Starfish (Oreaster reticulatis) is prohibited. Possession of live Queen Conch (Strombus gigas) at any time is prohibited. It is not unlawful to possess queen conch shells in Florida as long as the shells do not contain any living queen conch at the time of collection, and so long as a living queen conch is not killed, mutilated, or removed from its shell prior to collection. Possession of conch meat or a queen conch shell having an off-center hole larger than 1/16 inch in diameter through its spire is prohibited.

Bag Limits: Seasons, bag limits, and other regulations must be followed for species that are regulated by the FWC, such as bay scallops even when these species are not collected for food. The bag limit for marine life (tropical ornamental) species is 20 organisms per person per day. As of July 1, 2009, only five of any one marine life species is allowed within the 20-organism marine life bag limit. For unregulated species, more than 100 pounds or 2 fish per person per day (whichever is greater) is considered commercial quantities and requires a saltwater products license.
Discarded shells from harvest conch pile up under a dock near Eleuthra.  
Photo Jenny Staletovich, The Miami Herald

The conch is mostly gone from Florida. 
Can the Bahamas save the queen? 

BY JENNY STALETOVICH 
The Miami Herald

The queen of the sea, a monster mollusk that inspired its own republic in Florida but now is as likely to be found in a frying pan or a gift shop as the ocean floor, is in trouble. 

A marine preserve in the Bahamas famed for its abundance of queen conchs and intended to help keep the country’s population thriving is missing something: young conchs. Researchers studying the no-take park off Exuma, one of hundreds throughout the Caribbean, found that over the last two decades, the number of young has sharply declined as adult conchs steadily matured and died off. The population hasn’t crashed yet like it has in the Florida Keys, but in the last five years, the number of adult conchs in one of the Bahamas’ healthiest populations dropped by 71 percent. 
Shedd Aquarium researcher Andrew Kough set sail from Miami earlier this month for a 12-day research trip to Exuma where the team will try to find and document young queen conchs.  Photo Carl Juste 


For the slow-moving slugs that gather by the hundreds to mate, scientists fear a new, unexpected threat may now doom the park’s population: old age. 

The discovery also raises questions about the effectiveness of marine preserves, long viewed as a solution to reviving over-fished stocks. If one of the Caribbean’s oldest and best marine preserves isn’t working to replenish one of its biggest exports — now regulated as tightly as lobster — what does that mean for other preserves and how they’re managed? 
Conch, the national food of the Bahamas, is served in salads and fritters.  Cracked conch, deep fried and served on a sandwich with hot sauce, is among its most famous dishes.  Photo:  Lars Topelmann.

 “We can see [the preserve] works for grouper and sharks,” said Andrew Kough, lead author of a study published earlier this month and a larval expert at Chicago’s Shedd Aquarium. “But for a lot of the animals you don’t consider as much, for example conch that are tied to a complex life cycle of larval dispersal, it’s not working.” 

To find out why, Kough and a team of researchers set sail this month from Miami aboard a Shedd research boat — imagine the Belafonte minus the mini sub in “The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou.” For 12 days, they’ll dive the deep channels surrounding the park in search of young conchs to count and measure. They’ll also take DNA samples to determine where the conchs are coming from. If they can trace the path of the young conchs, the hope is they can find a better way to protect them and manage the fishery. 

“The babies are either not coming in in high enough numbers to replenish the adults or there’s something else going on in the park that’s an unintended consequence,” Kough said. “There’s so many sharks and rays inside the park they could just be chowing down on baby conchs.” 

In the Florida Keys, the ghost of the conch looms large: in oversized highway replicas, T-shirts, and horns. When he took the throne as king of the Conch Republic, treasure hunter Mel Fisher carried a scepter crowned with a queen conch. But in the Caribbean, conch remains a vital part of the economy, and the reason its governments are so concerned. 


Distribution of queen conch age classes throughout the survey area in the Exuma Cays Land and Sea Park during May 2016.

 Conchs used to be prevalent in Florida, too. But decades of overfishing nearly wiped them out. In the mid 1980s the U.S. banned their harvest to save what was left. Yet more than three decades later, they still have not recovered in Florida waters, an inauspicious sign for the Caribbean. 

 Across the Caribbean, conchs are as good as currency. Almost anyone who can swim can grab one from the ocean floor and sell it or serve it. Cracked conch or conch salad appears on almost every menu. Their pink-lipped shells line porches and walkways. Countless docks are littered with piles of discarded shells. They are used for everything from jewelry to bait. Whole industries, from fishermen to exporters, depend on a healthy population. 

 But regulating them as been uneven. While some islands impose seasons and limits on takes — in the Turks and Caicos conch season starts in October and there are set limits on numbers and size — other have not. Populations have plummeted in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Honduras, prompting the U.S. to ban their imports. 
Conch Graveyard on the island of Anegada, British Virgin Islands.  This heap consists of thousands of queen conch shells discarded after their flesh was taken for human consumption.


The Bahamas has taken an aggressive approach. In 2013, the government launched a “Conchservation” campaign to save what it considers a national treasure that once gathered in vast herds along miles of flats and seagrass meadows. 

In recent years, Kough said those herds have thinned considerably, driving populations down. In the Berry Islands, he said, previous surveys found the sea bottom littered with conchs, which can live up to 40 years and not only hold an important place in the food chain but graze on algae that can kill seagrass. The last time his team visited, Kough said, they found hardly any big adults. 

“The fishermen are going further to get the animals,” he said. “We found a lot of sub adults and juveniles as well, but it’s the adults that are in decline and that just screams fishing.” 
Conch man.  Bahamas

Scientists believe a healthy population needs between 50 and 100 adults conchs for every 2.5 acres to sustain itself. The patchier the clusters, the harder it is for populations to find each other and connect. 

Working with the Bahamian government, Kough hopes to better understand how the conchs are circulating — or more precisely the baby conchs. About five days after female conchs release their eggs in long sandy strands, larvae emerge and get caught up in currents. Because the larval stage can last up to a month, the babies can float more than 100 miles. Kough suspects the young conchs from the preserve are winding up in unprotected areas hammered by harvesting. 

Although the Bahamas restricts fishing, Kough said tighter measures may be needed. Regulations currently allow the take of any conch with a flared lip, the smooth curve on its rosy shell, which for years has been considered the indication of a mature conch. Scientists now believe the thickness of the shell is a better measure of maturity, triggering a local move to change rules to require shells be at least as thick as a Bahamian penny. 

“You don’t want to pull up juveniles. You want animals to reproduce,” Kough said. 

Kough is hoping the team can find some answers by studying currents to map the ocean highways traveled by conch larvae. 
Shedd Aquarium biologist Andrew Kough, an expert on marine larvae, is leading a research effort to better understand how queen conchs reproduce in the Bahamas in order to protect them.  The research team set sail aboard the aquarium's R/V Coral Reef earlier this month from its home port on the Miami River.  Photo:  Carl Juste 


 “It’s a lot more complex because the animals are spending so much time out in the open ocean and outside the boundaries because they’re dispersing as larvae,” he said. “You can’t create a huge ocean open park. Well you could, but how would you enforce that?” 

 The international community has vowed to protect 30 percent of the world’s coastlines by 2030 to keep fisheries sustainable. But, Kough said, the Bahamas is in the difficult position of having within its borders vast flats and shallows not considered shoreline that should be protected but could exhaust limited resources.

 “They recognize there’s a problem. That’s the really important thing,” he said. “So they want to take steps to fix it before it turns into something like Florida, where the population just crashed and still hasn’t recovered.”
We've Read:
Neymar:  Football's (Soccer's) Billion Dollar Man
Neymar's Transfer is About $1 billion, and a Whole Lot More
 By Thursday evening, the reality had swept across an irked Barcelona and a flabbergasted Europe to a high-reaching Qatar and beyond: An athlete really could fetch $263 million just to transfer him from one club to another, before even beginning the negotiation of his wages.
Neymar da Silva Santos Jr., the 25-year-old Brazilian known to soccer intellectuals since his midteens simply as Neymar, will leave the globally admired Barcelona club after four seasons. He will relocate to the top French league and the club Paris Saint-Germain, entities considered less upper-crust than the top Spanish league and Football Club Barcelona. The spectacular move, at a total cost of more than a half-billion dollars to his ambitious new employer, has little to do with business and more to do with prestige and political perceptions.
In the United States, if LeBron James wants to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers, he will demand a trade or wait for his lucrative contract to expire after the NBA’s 2017-2018 season, then become a free agent. It’s the straightforward way traditional U.S. professional sports leagues operate and the way players are able to change teams.
Now consider Neymar, who is under contract for almost four more years. Paris Saint-Germain wanted him very badly. Neymar wanted to spread his wings and escape the shadow of teammate Lionel Messi, winner of five of the past eight Ballon d’Or awards as the world’s top player. There are virtually no trades in international soccer. So the only way the Paris organization could acquire Neymar is through a transfer. In other words, it must buy him from Barcelona for a $263 million fee that doesn’t even include his contract, which will run in excess of $36 million annually for five years.
“The first word that comes to mind is insane,” said Marc Ganis, co-founder of Chicago-based Sportscorp, a leading sports business firm. “There’s no way that it makes any economic sense. It’s insane. It’s beyond insane.”
The transfer fee, more than double the previous record spent on a player, appears to be worth it for the owners of PSG, as the club is widely known. Many soccer observers see the move as an effort by its leaders to elevate the image of Qatar, whose government owns the French club. The oil-rich Persian Gulf state has been the subject of widespread negative publicity stemming from its controversial selection to host the 2022 World Cup and is under a trade embargo imposed by its Middle East neighbors.
The Neymar initiative, however, is consistent with PSG’s mission to extend its success beyond French borders and join the upper echelon of European soccer. The team has won four of the past five domestic league trophies but has never appeared in a Champions League title game. The most recent disappointment came in March, when PSG was the victim of the greatest comeback in the 62-year history of the event. It came against Neymar and Barcelona.
Now PSG believes it has its missing piece in Neymar.
Barcelona didn’t necessarily want to sell him. It has won seven of the past nine Spanish league titles and four of the past 12 Champions League competitions, a continent-wide tournament that is considered the most prestigious crown in global professional soccer. The club is estimated to be worth more than $3.6 billion, ranking fourth in the most recent Forbes listing of the most valuable sports franchises in the world. And Neymar is among its most valuable assets, widely regarded as the third-best player, behind Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, in the world’s most popular sport.
But all high-end players have release clauses in their contract, which means if another team tenders a transfer offer of that specified amount, the current club must sell. No one figured to hit Neymar’s astronomical figure. The previous mark was $125 million, paid last year by Manchester United to acquire French midfielder Paul Pogba from Italian power Juventus.
PSG’s efforts tested a European soccer rule known as Financial Fair Play, established in 2011 to prevent teams from falling into deep debt. Teams that violate the terms are subject to fines and other sanctions. It’s unclear whether the club has broken the rules.
Ganis said PSG will reap some economic benefits from employing Neymar, who will raise the profile of the team, sell tickets, attract sponsorships and perhaps help collect championship earnings.
“It will cover some of the cost,” Ganis said, “but there’s no way for it to make economic sense. They can only chip away at it.”
Sports-wise, it has paved a curious road, with an ambitious French club serving as a test case for how much one star might lift its fortunes. And on the other side, a proud soccer city was left bereft and miffed.
In Barcelona, there were reports of vandalism of Neymar ads around town. A tabloid newspaper showed a photo of Neymar driving off in his car under the headline “¡HASTA NUNCA!” (“See you never!”).
Outside Camp Nou stadium, where Neymar, Messi and Uruguayan Luis Suarez formed perhaps the most glamorous offensive attack in the sport’s history, you still could buy a Neymar shirt for 99 euros ($117) from the official merchandise trailer. You just couldn’t see it until a clerk withdrew it from behind the visible shirts such as Messi’s.
Photos and cartoons of Neymar appeared here and there, painted on the side of the trailer, on a machine where you could buy a commemorative Neymar coin (or a Messi coin) for 4 euros ($4.75) and on a photo near the entrance featuring Neymar and Messi seated among 15 children with a message in Catalan that translated as, “Who values you, wins.”

Lake Istokpoga

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Lake Istokpoga, at 27,692 acres (43¼ square miles, 112 km²) is the 5th largest lake in Florida. The lake is generally shallow (4-8 feet deep) and kept that way most of the year as part of an ill-fated 1940s-era flood control project.

The name "Istokpoga" is a Seminole word meaning "our people died there." I doubt the Seminole could be pleased with what white men have done with the lake.
 Lake Istokpoga is today the largest single source of permitted consumptive use water in the Kissimmee Valley (an estimated 100 million gallons per day). The lake's water level is mandated by the 1948 Flood Control Act and the resultant Central and Southern Florida Project which did irreparable environmental damage to a huge swath of Florida.
 Many areas adjacent to the Lake that once flooded seasonally or infrequently are now drained as part of the disastrous Flood Control Act of 1948.  

 A reduction of high lake levels has provided the catalyst for development around shores of the Lake, including agriculture (citrus and caladium farms), pasture land, residential and commercial establishments. 

The major tributaries to Lake Istokpoga are Josephine Creek and Arbuckle Creek, which are located in the northwest and north areas of the Lake, respectively. 
Water is discharged from the Lake through two major outlets, the Istokpoga canal that flows to the Kissimmee River and the S-68 Canal that flows through a series of canals to both Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee River.

The 1948 Flood Control Act and rules set subsequent to the Act dictate that in August the lake level is not permitted to be above 38.5-feet above sea level which makes the lake artificially shallow at about 4-feet deep (average).
Lake Istokpoga is located in Highlands County Florida with the base City being Lake Placid. Lake Istokpoga is one of the biggest trophy Bass fishing lakes in Florida and throughout the United States. This lake is designated as a Fish Management Area by the Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission.
Largemouth bass are the fish of choice here, although fishing for black crappie (specks), bluegill (shellcrackers) are very productive. You will see lots of wild alligators, birds like osprey, snowy egret, bald eagles and many other can be seen on a day’s fishing trip. Wild ducks and frogs are also plentiful all over the lake and typically seen while fishing.

Largemouth bass fishing is very good during the spring, and continues through early summer. Some customer are catching weights for five-fish of over 30 pounds, which is a six-pound per fish average. On this lake live wild shiners work about as well as artificial lures, so if you like fishing artificial this may be the lake for you. Bass generally finish spawning by the end of March to early April. Bass will begin schooling chasing threadfin and gizzard shad along weed lines in the open water.

Catch and Release
As of June 2017, there have been a whopping 372 TrophyCatch submissions of bass larger than 8 pounds since the program was launched in October 2012! A total of 303 fish have been entered into the Lunker Club (8-9.99 lb) and 69 into Trophy Club (10-12.99 lb). Remember, as part of the TrophyCatch program, all of these big bass have been released, so your trophy still swims in Lake Istokpoga. 
Largemouth bass fishing has slowed a bit with the water temperature rising in the lake, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be caught. Slow working baits like large plastic worms or crawfish style baits in Junebug, black and blue, and red shad colors have been the baits of choice during the “dog days of summer.” Just remember you need to have patience while working these baits to entice a bite. 
As the sun reaches its highest point in the middle of the day, begin flipping thick vegetation with deeper water nearby for bass seeking shade. Usually this technique is most effective when you pair a large weight (3/4 – 1.5oz depending on thickness of cover) with a crawfish style bait to produce a reaction strike from the pigs lurking below the vegetation mats. Braided line and a heavy action rod is critical in landing fish with this technique. Also, bass can be caught shallow when the bluegill spawn throughout the summer months. If you see colonies of bluegill beds don’t hesitate to throw bladed or swim style jigs in black and blue color to catch bass chasing the bluegill.


Lake Istokpoga is located five miles northeast of Lake Placid, Highlands County, this lake has quality fishing for black crappie (specks) and one of the highest catch ratios for largemouth bass in the state. The best speck fishing occurs during winter months drifting over open water, particularly in the northeast and southwest corners. Aquatic vegetation includes spadderdock (bonnets), bulrush (buggy whips), cattail, and pondweed (pepper grass). Kissimmee grass on the south end is particularly productive when there is flow into the Istokpoga Canal. This canal, located off County Highway 621, provides excellent largemouth bass fishing from the bank when the gates are open. Arbuckle and Josephine Creek mouths are also good areas when there is flow. The island areas and associated grass can hold bass any time of year and the deepest portion of the lake (10 ft) is in the southwest corner.


Public boat ramps are located on the north, northeast, and southwest shorelines off of U.S. Route 98, Lake Boulevard off Cow House Road, and Highland Lake Drive off of County Route 621, respectively. There are also six fish camps/resorts on the lake with various accommodations.
SPECIAL REGULATIONS FOR LARGEMOUTH BASS ON LAKE ISTOKPOGA 
A slot limit protects quality largemouth bass by requiring that all bass between 15 and 24 inches in length must be immediately released back into the lake. The daily bag limit is three fish per day. Only one of the three fish may be greater than 24 inches. This means you may keep three bass less than 15 inches, or two bass less than 15 inches and one bass greater than 24 inches. For more information on the special regulations or tournament exemptions, contact MyFWC.com.

Lake Istokpoga has several marinas, Lake Istokpoga Marina fishing camp and RV park which is located on the South end of the lake. Henderson’s Fish Camp is another great camp that has been around for what seems ever. Don’t forget about Cypress Isle RV Park & Marina another location to get your fishing trip started from.

Most of these photos were made at Istokpoga Park located on the north end of the lake at 720 Istokopoga Park Access Road, Sebring, FL 33876 (near the little town of Lorida off Hwy 98). 

From what we've seen on a couple of visits this summer there is never anyone here.  We encountered one family fishing from a dock but no other boaters at all.  The nicely appointed park was completely devoid of humans which is always fine by me.

Sea Daisy
(Borrichia frutescens)
Sea Daisy is an important species in hypersaline coastal sites.
Also known as 'sea ox-eye' or 'bushy seaside tansy,' it tolerates salinities ranging from less than 20 ppt to 130 ppt. It occurs in substrates low in organic matter and deficient in nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. 
Nearly all reproduction is vegetative from an extensive rhizome system.

Stands of B. frutescens often dominate the landward border of old growth Florida salt marshes.

We've Read:
45 Has an On Camera Meltdown for the Ages
Will this Expedite His Removal From Office?

It was like watching a human Twitter feed.
A combative and unrestrained President Donald Trump opened his authentic political soul, in possibly the most memorable news conference in presidential history, that is certain to become a defining moment of his administration.
It was supposed to be a routine event at Trump Tower in New York to tout the President's infrastructure plan.
But the session quickly veered off course into one of the most surreal political moments in years as Trump unloaded about the fallout from the weekend's protests by "alt-right" activists, white supremacists and neo-Nazis in Virginia.
    Gesticulating with his right hand, Trump blasted what he called the "alt-left," protested that he had already condemned neo-Nazis and parroted far-right talking points on the Confederacy.
    On the substance, it was a performance that quickly emboldened white nationalist groups and appeared certain to heighten racial tensions and fear in the country.
    There's no chance that Trump's political team can finesse this one, or walk it back.
    But the tone and the spectacle of Trump's unchained performance was equally stunning.
    The unapologetic, stream-of-consciousness style of delivery left no doubt at all: This was the real Trump, not the scripted version who appeared in the White House on Monday and tried to clean up his initial failure to condemn white supremacists after the death of a counter-protester in Charlottesville.
    His anger emerged in a torrent, as he obliterated any benefit of the doubt he earned on Monday, thought piling on thought, in a style the nation has become accustomed to from his Twitter feed.
    In the most incredible moment, as he stood at a podium bearing the seal of the President of the United States, Trump tore at the nation's racial fault lines by appearing to offer a pass to a racist and neo-Nazi movement.
    "I think there is blame on both sides," Trump said, returning to his original position about the protest in Charlottesville, saying that an extreme right demonstration in which marchers held torches and Swastikas and chanted racist and anti-Semitic slogans contained some "bad people .... but you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides."
    Trump accused counter-demonstrators of being as violent as the white supremacists.
    "What about the fact they came charging -- that they came charging with clubs in their hands, swinging clubs? Do they have any problem? I think they do," he said.
    "I think there is blame on both sides," Trump said.
    The President's fury was first sparked when he was challenged by reporters on his handling of Charlottesville, evidence of how Trump's extreme sensitivity to personal slights sometimes leads him into politically self-destructive behavior.
    It was a display that will renew questions about the suitability of Trump's temperament for the presidency, and at a time of increasing tensions around the world that will exacerbate fears he will be unable to control his emotions at a time of crisis as commander-in-chief.
    Trump also condemned efforts to take down statues in southern states dedicated to heroes of the Civil War Confederacy.
    "This week it's Robert E. Lee. I noticed that Stonewall Jackson's coming down. I wonder, is it George Washington next week? And is it Thomas Jefferson the week after?"
    "You're changing history. You're changing culture. And you had people, and I'm not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists, because they should be condemned totally. But you had many people in that group other than neo-Nazis and white nationalists."
    It did not take long for key figures in the extreme right movement to take comfort in Trump's remarks, after the news conference appeared to nudge the President closer to an isolated spot on the far right of US politics.
    "Thank you President Trump for your honesty & courage to tell the truth about #Charlottesville & condemn the leftist terrorists in BLM/Antifa, wrote David Duke, a former leader of the Ku Klux Klan, on Twitter.
    Some of Trump's fellow Republicans were quick to condemn him.
    "If you are showing up to a Klan rally you are probably a racist or a bigot," Texas Rep Will Hurd said on CNN's "The Situation Room.""I think the outrage across the political spectrum about this is maybe the thing that ultimately unites us."
    Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was also quick to rebuke Trump.
    "Mr. President,you can't allow #WhiteSupremacists to share only part of blame. They support idea which cost nation & world so much pain," Rubio said on Twitter.
    "These groups today use SAME symbols & same arguments of #Nazi & #KKK, groups responsible for some of worst crimes against humanity ever."


    The overall impression of Trump's performance was of a president out of control, who is captive to his whims and instincts and defies any attempt to manage him -- including by his new Chief of Staff John Kelly.
    "That was all him -- this wasn't our plan," a senior White House official told CNN's Jeff Zeleny.
    One person who has spent time with Trump over the past 24 hours describes the President as "distracted" and "irritable" in his interactions with top aides. Trump felt pressured into the Monday statement by staff members, the person said. As he went about his day Tuesday, Trump was upset and repeatedly returned to the topic, the person said, culminating in the lobby press conference.
    CNN senior political analyst David Axelrod compared Trump to a "runaway truck, there are no brakes, there is no reverse."
    Axelrod also questioned why Kelly and other Trump aides even allowed the President to appear before reporters on Tuesday, given their presumed knowledge of the state of his mood over the Charlottesville coverage.
    But ultimately, Tuesday's stunning appearance will be remembered for the sentiments that passed the lips of a President of the United States.
    In the long and tortured history of a nation still trying to work through its complicated story on race, Trump's meltdown will stand out, as a moment ripped from the darkest pages of history and transposed into the 21st Century.
    In the process, he appears to have abdicated any claim to the traditional presidential role as a moral voice for the nation and the world.
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