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Florida's Purple Natives

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As we move into late summer more species of purple-flowering plants are appearing in the undisturbed woodland and beach areas of Central Florida.  Here I detail a few of the many purple-blooming native species that I've encountered recently.

#1.  Downy Milkpea
(Galactia volubilis)
This twining vine is found in Florida pinelands, hammocks and thickets (or just about anywhere that hasn't been disturbed for a number of years).  It blooms year-round, is a larval host for a number of butterflies and has multiple medicinal uses.

Name Galactia from the Greek galaktos "milk," presumably because some of the 140 species of Galactia have a milky sap.  Linnaeus who first named this species seems to have had considerable problems with twining legumes.  This species he called Hedysarum volubile.  Later, Patrick Browne studied the plants in Jamaica, and named the genus Galactia, in 1756.  It was not until 1894 that the botanist Nathaniel Lord Britton moved the Linnean species into Galactia.  Then as now, this species is mostly overlooked.

The Seminoles used the roots of milk-pea in "Baby Sickness" medications, also for "Cow Creek Sickness," in childbirth, against appetite loss, fever, headache, and diarrhea.

Milk Pea is the larval host plant for Cassius Blue (Leptotes cassius), Ceraunus Blue (Hemiargus ceraunus), Gray Hairstreak (Strymon melinus), Silver Spotted Skipper (Epargyreus clarus) and Zarucco Duskywing (Erynnis zarucco) butterflies.

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#2 Beach Morning Glory 
aka Railroad Vine, Bay Hops
(Ipomoea pes-caprae)
The beach morning glory is an herbaceous vine that grows wild on ocean shores from Florida to Texas and Georgia. This plant reaches a height of 4 to 6 inches, but the stems may creep along the ground to a length of 75 feet. It roots and occasionally branches from the nodes and develops a long, thick, starchy root. The 2 1/2- to 4-inch long leaves are thick, smooth, and two-lobed; the leaf shape reminds one of a goat’s footprint or perhaps an orchid tree leaf. The beach morning glory is truly charming when in bloom. Funnel-shaped flowers that are 2 ½ to 3 inches wide occur in the summer and fall. The flowers are pinkish lavender with purple-red throats. They open in the early morning and close before noon each day that the plant is in bloom. Small, round seedpods that contain four velvety, dark brown seeds appear on this plant after flowering.

The beach morning glory is well adapted to beaches and coastal dunes. It is useful as a sand binder and ground cover, even on the ocean side of the primary dune. They grow right down to the high tide mark on the beach. Plant on 3-foot centers to quickly form a ground cover. It may not be well suited for home landscapes because it grows too quickly and has a very open growth habit. This full sun plant will prosper on most well-drained soils. It grows very rapidly and needs to be pruned and contained if planted in a landscape. The beach morning glory will tolerate very high levels of salt spray but cannot endure over watering. Basically, plant it, water a few times and leave the sprinkler off.

Ipomoea pes-caprae (goat's foot) so-named from the Greek ips, ipos "worm" or "bindweed" and homios, hoimios, "resembling," referring to the twining habit of the plant.  The plant has many names in the Americas.  In the Dominican Republic its called "Little Potato," in Cuba and Puerto Rico its Boniato de Playa (Beach Sweet Potato), in the Bahamas and parts of Florida its Bay Hops (Winders).  In Veracruz they call it Bejuco de Playa (Beach Vine).  In Mesoamerica it is Turtle Vine (Bejuco de la Tortuga).  In Belize it is Cowslip.  In Haiti it is Hog-food Vine (Liane Manger Cochon) and in the French Antilles it is Wild Beach Potato or Seaside Potato (Patate bord de la Mer or Patate lan Mer).  In large parts of the USA it is simply Railroad Vine.

Used against arthritic pain and internal upset, as a purgative and diuretic, and to lower blood pressure it was an important species for Native Floridians.  Elsewhere it has been used against "weakness in women," for bathing sores and wounds, as a febrifuge and emollient, and to treat animal stings and bites.  Recent studies indicate that Beach Morning Glory contains compounds as effective as Benadryl.  So next time you're stung at the beach break off a piece and rub into your bite.  Beware, however, in other parts of the Americas the milky sap is used to make a dye so it will stain skin and clothes.



 #3  Bay Bean or Seaside Bean
(Canavalia rosea)
In Florida this plant is found in large stands only where there has been little human activity near beaches.  This stand was photographed in August of 2017 at Canaveral National Seashore between New Smyrna Beach and Cape Canaveral.

Canavalia is derived from the Malabar common name in India, Kavavali, from kanam, "forest," valli, "climber." 

Later it became "Jack-bean" (after 1885 from the Portuguese jaca which was in turn derived from the Malayalam chakka), and "Sword-bean" (from the large, flat shape of the legumes; first applied to Canavalia in 1883.
This plant has so many common names its hard to recount them all.  Most refer to the beans it produces in one way or another;  Bay Bean, Horse Bean (Bahamas), June Bean (Suriname) Pois Bord de Mer (Guadeloupe and Martinique), Pois Cabrit, Pois Liane (Haiti), Pois Makendal (Makendal's Bean after the Haitian slave revolt mystic), Malfaisants Pois de Mer (Damned Sea Peas), and Pois Zombi (Zombie Bean).
The beans of this species (pictured below) are considered by many to be toxic, containing proteins and alkaloids that if not properly prepared are poisonous.  Among the toxic chemicals found in Canavalia are lectins, cyanides, complex proteins, and alkaloids.

No records of C. rosea being used for food have been found in the New World.  Only in Asia has it been recorded as food, although there were many records of other species of Canavalia being eaten in the New World.

There are historical records of people feeding the foliage to livestock.  In the Caribbean, the seeds are considered toxic and corrosive, but the leaves are used in medicines.  "Dicen que ahuyenta las bibijaguas" (they say it expels intestinal worms).  In Hispaniola the leaves are used in bitter tonics, and the roots are considered antiblennorrhagic.  The plant is also used to treat asthma, although its toxic properties make that unadvisable.

#4 Spotted Beebalm
or Dotted Horsemint, or Horsemint
(Monarda punctata)
Horsemint is a 12-18-inch-tall, upright, herbaceous perennial that has long been used by Native Americans to make a "sweating tea." The branched stems of this plant bear opposite, lanceolate to oblong leaves that are 3 inches long.  Horsemint produces fragrant, beautiful lavender to pink flowers which are held above the foliage in summer and fall.  It is native to moist, coastal upland sites in Florida.

Dotted horsemint was used by the Meskwaki to treat colds and catarrh (runny nose, congested chest) in a mixture with the leaves of Ranunculus delphinifolius (Buttercup) and the disk florets of Helenium autumnal (Sneezeweed). This plant, along with other plants were ground into a powder and snuffed up the nostrils to relieve a sick headache. 
Horsemint taken with the roots of Asarum canadense (Wild Ginger), Euphorbia corollata (Spurge), and Brauneria angustifolia (Echinacea) relieved stomach cramps. 

The Delaware washed patients' faces with an infusion of dotted horsemint to treat skin problems. They also used an infusion of dotted horsemint to reduce fevers. The Mohegan made an infusion of the plant to reduce fevers as well. The Nanticoke used an infusion of the entire plant to treat colds. The Navajo hung the plant in the hogan for its pleasing odor.

#5.  Slender Blazing Star
(Liatris gracilis)
Found in well-drained, undisturbed sites across Central Florida.  Blazing Star is becoming rare.  Its flowers erupt on 2-4 foot tall stems from August to October.  Pictured here these specimen were found in a roadside ditch in southern Volusia County after much searching.

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The nation has split into political tribes. The culture wars are back, waged over transgender rights and immigration. White nationalists are on the march.

Amid this turbulence, a surprising group of Americans is testing its moral voice more forcefully than ever: C.E.O.s.
After Nazi-saluting white supremacists rioted in Charlottesville, Va., and President Trump dithered in his response, a chorus of business leaders rose up this past week to condemn hate groups and espouse tolerance and inclusion. And as lawmakers in Texas tried to restrict the rights of transgender people to use public bathrooms, corporate executives joined activists to kill the bill.

These and other actions are part of a broad recasting of the voice of business in the nation’s political and social dialogue, a transformation that has gained momentum in recent years as the country has engaged in fraught debates over everything from climate change to health care.

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Brazilian Davi Abedeno
@abedenodavi

Sea Otter Conservation

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Sea Otter by Ryan Wolt
I recently spent a day on Sitka Sound (Alaska) searching for Northern Sea Otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni).  I was not disappointed.  This area of Alaska is one of the most scenic in the world, and we found lots of sea otters to admire and photograph.

These sea otters are the largest member of the weasel family.  Their fur is made up of a dense under fur, ranging in color from brown to black, and longer guard hairs.  The guard hairs can be brown to black to silver.  Their hind feet are webbed to aid in swimming, and their front toes are short and stiff.
Sitka Sound
Adult Sea otters grow to 5 feet in length.  The males average weight is 80-100 pounds but individuals can weigh much more.  Females are smaller, weighing 50-70 pounds.  Sea otters' average life span is 15-20 years.  Breeding begins at age 2-5 for females and may continue until age 20.  Males become sexually mature at age 4-6 but may not hold breeding territories until several years later.
Sitka Sound
Historically, sea otters occurred in near shore waters around the North Pacific rim from Hokkaido, Japan through the marine coastal areas of the Russian Far East and the Pacific coastal areas in the United States as far south as Baja California.  The world-wide sea otter population was drastically reduced to just a few hundred individuals between 1742 and 1911, due to commercial harvest by the Russian and Russian/American fur trades.  

Three populations of sea otters exist in Alaska today.  The statewide population is believed to number around 70,000 individuals.

In the United States, the Northern Sea Otter is protected from hunting and harassment by the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972.  The U.S. Fish and wildlife Service is the federal agency responsible for maintaining healthy populations of sea otters.  In the early 2000s Northern Sea Otters in southwest Alaska were listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

The primary threats to sea otter are generally human-related, and include:  competition for shellfish, mariculture, oil and gas transport, logging activities in coastal areas, and commercial fishing.
A Sea Otter Mom and large pup riding on her belly

Conservation Success for Otters on the Brink of Extinction
 All over the world otter populations have been hanging in the balance, but two very different approaches have been successful in saving the species

Loveable, playful, inquisitive, tenacious, energetic, versatile, charming and undeniably cute. These are just some of the words that can be used to describe an otter. If you’ve been lucky enough to see one of these shy semi-aquatic animals in the wild, you’ll instantly understand why.

But despite all their lovable qualities, otter populations all over the world hang in the balance.
Because they haven’t always been appreciated (at least not alive), sea otters were almost hunted to extinction for their warm and luxurious pelts. More recently, many species including the common, or Eurasian, otter have been hunted and trapped because they were seen as threats to fish stocks and competition for our food. Sometimes they were even killed for fun.

It is not just deliberate hunting, trapping and persecution that cause otters to suffer; they have to cope with shrinking habitats and a shortage of food, are vulnerable to chemicals, pollutants and (for some species) oil spills. Getting caught in fishing nets, parasites and infectious diseases are yet further causes of fatalities.

These are big problems and a tall order for any group of animals to deal with.

Despite all these challenges, they are fighters with a range of skills and behaviours making them superbly adapted to life on land and in water.

Found on every continent except Oceania and Antarctica, not one of the 13 species has yet become extinct.

This says a lot about the tenacious nature of these members of the mustelid family, but also about the efforts many organisations and individuals have played in their conservation. The approaches and use of technology may differ vastly in different parts of the world, but the long-term survival of the species is what matters.
Sea Otter by Ryan Wolt
Sea otters in California
It was a close call for the incredibly cute sea otter (Enhydra lutris) though.

During the fur trade of the 1700s and 1800s, the worldwide sea otter population was reduced from as many as 300,000 animals to as few as 2000, explains Andrew Johnson, Monterey Bay Aquarium’s Conservation Research Operations Manager.

They were relentlessly hunted for their pelts. With around a million hairs per square inch, it was regarded as one of the most prized animal furs in the world.

Along the Californian coast, the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) was persecuted particularly badly, where numbers in the early 1900s were down to around 50 individuals (from 15,000) and were close to being wiped out.

Thankfully, they are now protected and their numbers have recovered to around 125,000 - though they remain an endangered species.

Healthy populations have a profound effect on the overall health of kelp forests, estuaries, and coastal and ocean ecosystems, because, Johnson says, “When sea otters are absent, those systems often fall out of balance and become less diverse and resilient.”
Monterey Bay Aquarium in California has worked with sea otters since it opened in 1984 and now operates a successful sea otter rescue and release programme, using state-of-the-art facilities and tracking implants to help them in their vital work.

To help stranded sea otters, they have an Intensive Care Unit and multiple enclosures filled with filtered seawater with the capacity to hold 10 animals at one time. To monitor their progress once back in the wild, they use radio transmitters.

“We implant the transmitters so that we can track each otter and watch its behaviour following release,” he says.

Because the batteries last at least two years, young animals can often be tracked until they reach adulthood and reproduce, allowing the team to document the significant impact releasing sea otters into an area has on the ecosystem.

Largely due to legislation and the conservation work of dedicated organisations and charities such as Monterey Bay Aquarium, there is good news for California’s southern sea otters, as numbers are now up to 3000.

“This charismatic and vital species would not have survived without these protections.

“We need them to survive so they can exert positive effects on kelp forests and estuarine habitats, making those areas healthier and more ecologically diverse,” Johnson says.
A large group of Sea Otters near Cape Edgecumbe

The female otters and pups move in large groups through the nearshore kelp while the males are found floating far out in the middle of Sitka Sound


Hairy-nosed otters in Cambodia
Not all approaches to conservation are so well funded, but this doesn’t mean they are any less successful.

The hairy-nosed otter (Lutra sumatrana) is one of the rarest and most endangered species of otter. In the 1990s, it was thought extinct throughout its range in Southeast Asia due to habitat loss, poaching, local consumption of otter meat and a loss of its sources of food.

However, surveying between 2006 and 2013 at possible habitats confirmed the presence of several small populations. In Cambodia, for example, it was found in four areas; one of the largest populations being around the flooded forest surrounding the Tonle Sap Lake.

Now the species has been ‘rediscovered’, it needs to be protected so that the populations can be allowed to grow. And that’s where organisations such as Conservation International have worked to protect and conserve the area and the species.

As Sokrith Heng, Conservation International’s lead researcher for the survey, explains, even though there are a number of laws and regulations to protect the species, enforcement on the ground is weak and limited and local people’s awareness of the importance of the wildlife and ecosystems they live in is very limited.

Poverty in areas such as rural Cambodia can also be a problem and often pushes local communities to use natural resources in unsustainable ways.

In response to this, Conservation International took action at Tonle Sap Lake. Their approach was to restore critical habitat, raise awareness in local communities and schools, and suggest laws and regulations to better protect the species. They also established conservation zones, protecting these through collaboration with government and community rangers as well as helping local community fisheries to development alternative livelihoods.

Key to this was directly engaging local community members in otter research and forming a group of ‘otter ambassadors’ who help spread awareness resulting in stronger support from locals.

This is important Heng says because; “Educating local people means they can share their knowledge to other community members.”

An important part of the successful conservation here is ensuring that local communities are able to sustainably use and manage their resources, and that the communities are financially stronger, explains Heng. For example, some community fisheries now have better protection for the otters: they are patrolling the area to stop illegal activities and teaching otter conservation in the local area.

At Tonle Sap Lake, these approaches resulted in fewer otter traps and skins being recorded by officials and researchers, both signs that fewer animals were being killed. While ongoing habitat restoration combined with less hunting and greater awareness is helping to ensure a brighter future for the hairy-nosed otter.

Although the technology maybe very different to that used at Monterey Bay, this method of conservation has been just as successful, as hairy-nosed otters now have at least one stronghold in Cambodia.

It is a good result for the country and for a species that was once thought extinct. 

By Jeremy Coles for the BBC, 2017
Leaving a large wake in Sitka Sound


Sitka Sound Bieli Rocks

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Bieli Rocks on the eastern side of Sitka Sound, Alaska.  The rocks have many moods.  Rather the weather is moody, changing quickly, and them making the rocks appear completely changed.
 Mount Edgecumbe on Kruzof Island is the snow-capped peak in the background.  The mountain is a dormant volcano.
 These are some of my favorite shots of the rocks on summer afternoons.
 There is almost always one eagle on the rocks or crosses.
 The rocks are far bigger and the wave action far more active that it appears in the close-up images.  It is difficult to get closer than 100 yards to the rocks due to wind/wave motion.  300 mm lens brings the crosses in close and clear.




 Here three different shots as a large eagle turns his head from one side to another.

 Saying goodbye to the rocks for this summer.  
We'll be back next year.
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Harvey slams ashore as Cat 4 just north of Corpus Christi, Texas


Hurricane Harvey has brought “500-year” rainfall and flood conditions to the Houston area, according to officials at the Harris County Flood Control District.
By the time the storm finally leaves the Houston area the true magnitude may be even greater than that, surpassing 1,000-year thresholds -- potentially even more.
But 500-year floods, as it turns out, happen more frequently than you might expect. The Houston area alone has seen no fewer than three such events in the past three years, according to local officials: Memorial Day floods in 2015 and 2016, followed by Hurricane Harvey's torrential rainsthis year.
So is Houston just on a historically unlucky run of flooding, to be followed by a return to normal soon? Or was there some miscalculation of how frequently these massive flooding events occur? Or, most alarmingly, is something else happening that suggests these catastrophic weather events are becoming much more common?
Let's start with what it means to be a "500-year” flood.
A 500-year flood isn't necessarily something that happens once every five hundred years. Rather, a 500-year flood is an event that has a 1 in 500 chance of occurring in any given year. “For a 500-year flood, there is a 0.2 percent chance of having a flood of that magnitude occurring” in any given year, according to the National Weather Service.
Think of it as more a statistical term than a meteorological one. The probability that any extreme storm will happen is completely independent of the probability of the next one. “If one of those events occurs, it has no effect on future events occurring,” according to the National Weather Service. “In other words, if a 100-year flood event occurs, that does NOT mean that people are 'safe' for 99 years. The risk of having the flood in any given year is the same," regardless of whether it occurred recently. Ditto for 500-year floods.
Practically speaking, that means you can have multiple 500-year flood events happen essentially back-to-back. Indeed, that appears to be happening in Houston right now, with the flooding in 2015, 2016 and today.
Here's the other big caveat: The term is applied to a local area, not to the United States as a whole. So when meteorologists say the Houston is experiencing a 500-year flood, they mean there is a 1 in 500 chance of it happening in any given year in Houston.

The United States has 3.5 million miles of rivers and streams and 95,000 miles of shoreline, which means lots of potential for flooding — even flooding that's historic, by local or regional standards — in any given year. As it turns out, the country experiences multiple 500-year flood or storm events (that is to say, an event that in had a 1 in 500 chance of occurring in that given place) every single year. Including Harvey, the country has experienced at least 25 such 500-year rain events since 2010, according to the National Weather Service.
Before Harvey, the most recent one happened in Missouri in May, when some areas were soaked with a foot of rain in a few hours. Other recent 500-year rain events include Hurricane Matthew, which roared up the Carolinas last fall, and the torrential rain that destroyed much of Ellicott City, Md., last summer. Harvey will be at least the fifth major 500-year flood to hit Texas since 2010.
Here's a map of where some of the major ones have occurred since 2010, as compiled by the National Weather Service.
This brings us to another variable in the equation: Climate change.
It's unwise to try to link climate change to any specific storm or even string of storms. Even if we weren't heating the planet with a steady stream of human greenhouse gases, all of these storms would have likely happened anyway. But climate scientists do believe that global warming is creating conditions that allow these storms to become more powerful, and perhaps even more frequent.
Climatologists say the mechanism by which this is happening is fairly straightforward. “Warmer air can contain more water vapor than cooler air,” according to the 2014 Climate Assessment produced by the U.S. government. “Global analyses show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has in fact increased due to human-caused warming. This extra moisture is available to storm systems, resulting in heavier rainfalls.”
That assessment includes this eye-opening chart on the rising prevalence of “heavy precipitation events” — defined in this case as five-year rain events, or events that have a 20 percent change of occurring in any given year.
This charts the number of these events in a given decade, relative to the average number for the period of 1900 to 1960. The 1990s saw 30 percent more of these heavy rainmakers than the typical decade between 1900 and 1960 did. In the 2000s there were 40 percent more of these events.
There's one final issue: Not all estimates of 100-year or 500-year events are equal.
Terms like 100-year and 500-year began to be applied to floods with the creation of the National Flood Insurance Program in 1968. The program needed to identify which areas of the United States were at risk of flooding and which weren't. Floodplains came to be defined as land likely to flood during a 100-year rain event.
Climatologists base their estimates of 100-year and 1,000-year rainfall estimates based on a statistical analysis of prior years' rainfall data. The more data you have, the better your estimate is. Some places have more data available than others. As new data rolls in every year, estimates everywhere can be updated.
All of that is alarming news for residents of Houston, New Orleans and the millions of other people who live in areas vulnerable to extreme flooding. It cumulatively suggests that what we once projected would be extreme weather is more common than we thought and, as the climate cooks, is only getting more so.
The latest data we have on extreme precipitation events, through 2015, shows that the trends outlined above are likely to continue.

Texas' Congressional Delegation Voted Against Hurricane Relief for Hurricane Sandy. How Will They Justify Asking for $Billions Now?
Here's an Example:
“The problem with that particular bill is it became a $50 billion bill that was filled with unrelated pork. Two-thirds of that bill had nothing to do with Sandy.”
— Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), interview with NBC’s Katy Tur, Aug. 28, 2017
Hypocrisy watch! Now that Houston and much of southeastern Texas is swamped by Hurricane Harvey, critics (including Northeastern lawmakers) have complained that Texas senators and members of Congress are seeking emergency federal aid but refused to back relief for the victims of Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
The defense, as shown in the quote above by Cruz, is that the Sandy legislation was a bad bill, filled with pork-barrel projects. A similar defense is indicated by a spokesman for Cruz’s colleague, Sen. John Cornyn (R) — that he did vote for Sandy aid, just not the bad bill that was signed into law.
So what’s going on here? Did the bill for Sandy have so much pork in it that two-thirds was unrelated to the disaster at hand?

The Facts

Like many complex pieces of legislation, there were a number of votes and various versions of the emergency aid. The help for Sandy came in two parts — an uncontroversial vote in late 2012 for a $9.7 billion increase in the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s borrowing power for flood relief, and then a $50.5 billion package that was approved in January 2013, without the votes of Texas Republicans (or many Republicans).
Many Republicans said that the emergency spending should have been offset by cuts elsewhere. House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), at the time chairman of the Budget Committee, was one arguing the money needed to be offset. “This legislative abuse is an insult to families facing real emergencies in the wake of the storm,” he declared.
Many Republicans in the House voted for an alternative bill, crafted by Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.), now President Trump’s budget director, that would have funded a smaller emergency bill with a 1.63 percent across-the-board reduction in spending on discretionary programs. “It’s so important to me that I think we should pay for it,” he said. But his gambit was rejected.
(AshLee Strong, a spokeswoman for Ryan, did not directly respond to a question about whether Ryan would require funding for Harvey relief to be offset, as he had demanded in 2013. “We will help those affected by this terrible disaster,” she said. “The first step in that process is a formal request for resources from the administration.”)
So was the $50 billion bill filled with pork — two-thirds of which was unrelated to Sandy?
No.
The Congressional Research Service issued a comprehensive report on the provisions, and it’s clear that virtually all of it was related to the damage caused by Sandy. There may have been some pork in an earlier Senate version, but many of those items were removed before final passage. There were also some items that appear to have been misunderstood. 

 Cruz is repeating a number of myths about the funding for Sandy disaster relief. The vast majority of the spending was for Hurricane Sandy, including elements (such as Smithsonian repairs) that some lawmakers incorrectly believed were unrelated to the storm. The slow rate of projected spending that Cruz had criticized at the time was actually based on how quickly the government had spent funds after previous major storms. 

 Cruz clearly misspoke about the “two-thirds” being pork. Still, it is wildly incorrect to claim that the bill was “filled with unrelated pork.” The bill was largely aimed at dealing with Sandy, along with relatively minor items to address other or future disasters.

Where Will Hurricane Irma Make Landfall?

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On the heels of Hurricane Harvey, now estimated to be the second-costliest storm in U.S. history, attention is turning to the next threat, Hurricane Irma.

Irma, is currently marching westward across the Atlantic Ocean with 110 mph winds. Irma’s center of circulation is still more than 2,000 miles away from U.S. coast, but models continue to cause future concern.

No one knows where Hurricane Irma will make landfall.

This storm will definitely be one to watch over the next several days — particularly along the East Coast — despite the high uncertainty in impacts at this juncture.

Current status

Although it has dropped to Category 2 strength, Irma continues to look quite healthy on satellite images, as of Sunday morning, Sept 3, 2017.  She is one week from potential landfall in the USA.  Again, we must stress, that landfall may never happen.  But she bears watching.

Pictured on this page are early Sunday morning Sept 3, 2017 computer model simulations of where the hurricane will be a week from today.  It will be more important to follow these models starting mid-week when we're only 5 days from potential landfall.
Irma initially underwent rapid intensification on Thursday — it is already the longest-duration storm at hurricane strength of the 2017 Atlantic season — and these kinds of fluctuations should be expected in an intense storm that far east.

Forecast updates

Proceeding with the caveat in mind that exact track forecasts for tropical systems beyond five days are full of uncertainties, let’s take a look at what overnight guidance showed regarding Irma’s potential track beyond the cone.

Global Forecast System (GFS, American model)

The GFS has been painting an ominous picture over the past few model runs, swinging Irma around a large blocking high-pressure system anchored over the central Atlantic. It ultimately brings the storm up the East Coast with landfall between Charleston and the Delmarva.

The ensemble (spaghetti plots) for the American model are also currently focusing in on this type of solution. None of the ensemble members have the storm going into the Gulf, with most now showing a powerful storm near the East Coast by later next week.

ECMWF (Euro, European model)

At this writing the ECMWF has not finished running its latest plot but it was hinting at more of a recurvature on Saturday afternoon, indicating the storm might recurve harmlessly out to sea.

As a whole, most global models are trying to converge on the idea that a strong high-pressure system located over the central Atlantic will remain entrenched through next week, perfectly placed to allow Irma to stay over beneficially warm waters and head ever closer to the U.S. shoreline.



It is still absolutely worth mentioning again that these model solutions are not official forecasts. No one (or no model) can tell us exactly where Irma will go.
However, we can start to look at the trends from each model and ensemble run to get a better idea of how the situation might play out early next week. It is safe to say that the situation has become slightly more concerning for East Coast residents.
 Its also worth mentioning that the colorful blob behind Hurricane Irma is likely to become Hurricane Jose.  Jose is at a much lower latitude and his eventual path could also impact landmasses in the Northern Hemisphere.

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Detailed Advice for Seeking FEMA Assistance After Hurricane Harvey
As more Gulf Coast residents return to their flooded homes and begin to assess damage, the Federal Emergency Management Agency will play a central role in providing assistance for repairs.


After Hurricane Ike struck Galveston in 2008, hundreds of thousands of Texans sought grants from FEMA to make temporary repairs -- enough to make their homes habitable while they waited for insurance claims that would pay for more permanent fixes.

Many of those who applied, however, claimed that they were unfairly denied assistance. In some cases, FEMA determined that the damage was a result of deferred maintenance. Questions also arose about the adequacy of the training provided to inspectors who assessed homes for storm related damage.

Tips for Hurricane Harvey Survivors From Those Who Lived Through Hurricane Sandy
Bathe your kids at their accustomed times. Use the gas of wrecked cars to fuel your generator. Beware of taking too much time off from your job. The sight of a squirrel might help.




The question over whether Osteen’s 38,000-member Lakewood Church has sufficiently aided in the disaster relief effort in the wake of Hurricane Harvey has, once again, made America’s prince of the prosperity gospel into an object of social media contempt.

With his yachts and jets and endlessly-smiling mouth offering promises of Your Best Life Now (that’s the name of his best-selling book), Osteen was already a subject of contempt among Americans, in general.

But in the past few days he has been lambasted as being, at best, sluggish in providing emergency aid to those suffering from the disaster and, at worst, a hypocrite who cares more about people’s wealth than welfare.



In swamping large swaths of Texas and Louisiana, Hurricane Harvey also forged a new reality for President Trump and the Republicans governing Washington.

Gone are the confrontational talk of a government shutdown and the brinkmanship over the debt limit. Instead, both Mr. Trump and his putative allies in Congress — many of them professed fiscal hawks — are promising an outpouring of federal aid to begin a recovery and rebuilding effort that will last for years and require tens of billions of dollars, if not substantially more, from Washington.

The storm has utterly transformed the federal fiscal picture.

“This is going to change the whole dynamic for September and, quite frankly, for the Republican establishment for the remainder of the 115th Congress,” said G. William Hoagland, a longtime chief budget adviser to Senate Republicans who is now a senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “The truth of the matter is, they don’t need money to build a wall in Texas, but to rebuild the shoreline in Texas.”

How soon is it “acceptable” to politicize a national tragedy?


That question applies across the board to commentators of all stripes, whether it involves a deadly protest, domestic terror or a natural disaster. In the case of Hurricane Harvey’s toll in Texas before moving east, there was a distinct shift in editorial patterns a few days after the storm hit.

From cable anchors to elected officials, this still-worsening tragedy rapidly became a staging area for making political points. Among editorial cartoonists, the first wave of “unity” cartoons— depicting Texans coming together despite any and all ideological differences — soon gave way to the truly “political” cartoons.


How Big and Strong Is Hurricane Irma?

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At 2:00 AM AST on Sat Sep 9, 2017 the eye of Hurricane Irma is moving over the Camaguey Archipelago of Cuba as a Category 5 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph.

The most common metric for understanding the strength of a hurricane is the Saffir-Simpson scale, which is determined by maximum wind speed. Irma, a Category 5 as of Saturday morning, September 9, broke the record for consecutive hours at Category 5 on Thursday. But hurricane strength is about more than just maximum wind speed. Energy is an important metric to measure, because it can help determine the impacts, how bad they will be and how far they will extend. 

A very large storm with moderate winds may have more total energy than an intense but small storm. The map above, provided by RMS, a company specializing in risk assessment, compares the total energy of Irma with other historic and recent hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Irma’s wind speed along with its size carries an energy value of 112 terajoules, which is similar to the energy carried by Katrina in 2005. How much energy is that?  A lot.  Check out the table above.  Hurricane Sandy, not depicted in this map, was a Category 1, but according to RMS carried 330 terajoules of energy before its landfall in New Jersey because its wind field was so big.
Irma’s maximum sustained winds were measured at 185 mph Tuesday. Only one Atlantic Ocean storm in recorded history has exceeded that level: Hurricane Allen, which slammed into Mexico and Texas in 1980, had top wind speeds of 190 mph.
About 400 miles wide, Irma is significantly larger and, at least for now, a bit more powerful than Hurricane Andrew, which devastated parts of South Florida in 1992. Andrew’s top sustained winds were 175 mph, as were Hurricane Katrina’s in 2005.
But while Katrina had declined to a Category 3 storm by the time it struck the Gulf Coast, Andrew strengthened to a Category 5 just before it barreled into Florida. (Exact numbers for Andrew are sketchy because the storm destroyed much of the measuring equipment in its path.)

As of Wednesday, Irma was much smaller than Katrina at its peak but larger than Andrew, and its hurricane-force winds stretched about 100 miles across — roughly the width of Florida in many places. It is impossible to know what it will be like if it hits Florida.
Current projections from the National Hurricane Center have Hurricane Irma Coming ashore on Estero Island, Fort Myers Beach area with sustained winds of 130-150 mph.  The Fort Myers metro area is home to a population of over 1,000,000.

Besides Irma, there are two other hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean basin. This is the first time since 2010 there have been three active hurricanes. Hurricane Katia currently Category 1, in the Gulf of Mexico, should make landfall Saturday morning in Mexico. Like Irma, Jose formed in the far eastern Atlantic, and is now a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 miles per hour as of Friday morning. A hurricane watch is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy.

Irma sets a record as strongest hurricane in open Atlantic in two ways
Irma’s peak sustained surface winds of 185 mph are the highest observed in any hurricane north of the Caribbean and east of Florida, topped only by Allen (1980) in the Caribbean (190 mph). Two hurricanes have notched 185-mph winds in the Caribbean: Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005). The Labor Day hurricane of 1935 hit the same peak winds in the Florida Straits.

Irma set another record late Wednesday afternoon: its central surface pressure dropped to 916 mb, as extrapolated from dropsonde data collected by Hurricane Hunters. This beats the previous Atlantic record outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, a 919 mb reading from a dropsonde with Hurricane Gloria (1985).

Irma's central pressure at 2 pm EDT Tuesday, when the hurricane's top winds first hit 185 mph, was 926 mb. Interestingly, the other four Atlantic hurricanes with winds at least that strong had significantly lower central pressures:

Wilma: 882 mb
Gilbert: 888 mb
Labor Day 1935: 892 mb
Allen: 899 mb

Why the difference? Wind speeds are driven by the contrast between the central pressure of a hurricane and its surrounding environment. As a rule, the sharper the contrast, and the smaller the distance over which it occurs, the stronger the peak winds. Normally, one would expect a medium-sized hurricane like Irma with a central pressure of 926 mb to have slightly weaker winds. However, surface pressures around Irma are considerably higher than usual, which appears to have boosted the pressure gradient.

As a hurricane matures, its wind field often spreads out while the peak winds slowly decrease. The hurricane’s storm surge potential does not necessarily drop, though, because the broadened wind field can be pushing just as much water as before. Hurricanes such as Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012), whose winds weakened before landfall, produced much more surge than one might have expected from their Saffir-Simpson rating, which depends only on maximum wind speed. A storm as powerful as Irma will have the potential to create devastating storm surge even if its wind field eventually expands and its top winds weaken.
Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) is a theoretical measure of the maximum strength a hurricane can achieve, based on the existing ocean temperatures and the thermal profile of the atmosphere. Above is a plot of the MPI as computed from the GFS model run from 0Z Tuesday, September 5, 2017. Irma hit 185-mph winds in a region where theory said it should only have been able to attain peak winds of about 165 mph. According to an email from hurricane scientist Dr. Kerry Emanuel, “in numerical simulations, rapid intensifiers often overshoot their potential intensity, but eventually settle back to it.” Note that the MPI along the track of Irma peaks at about 210 – 215 mph in the Florida Straits. This implies that Irma has room for still more intensification as it approaches Florida, if wind shear, land interaction, and eyewall replacement cycles do not interfere.
Irma’s storm surge
Irma is a medium-large hurricane, and is expected to grow in size as it progresses west-northwest over the next four days. As of 5 pm EDT Wednesday, the diameter of hurricane-force winds surrounding Irma was up to 105 miles wide, and the diameter of tropical storm-force winds was up to 310 miles. The official NHC forecast predicted that these diameters would grow to 115 miles and 345 miles, respectively, by Friday, when Irma will be pounding the central Bahamas. This increase in size will be due to eyewall replacement cycles, which spread out the wind field over a larger area, and due to the fact that storms moving towards the pole get more spin from the Earth’s spin.

To check out your neighborhood using the National Hurricane Center's Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation) tool click here.
Irma’s large wind field is putting in motion a vast amount of water, which is spiraling into the center of Irma and creating a large mound. In the open ocean, that water is forced downward, pushing deeper water outward, and the sea surface is not elevated more than a few feet. However, once the hurricane drives that mound of water into a shallow area near land, the water cannot flow downwards, and instead piles up and is forced on land, creating a storm surge. In the Turks and Caicos Island and in the southeastern and central Bahamas, a highly destructive storm surge of 15 – 20 feet above ground is expected near the coast to the right of where the eyewall hits.

Click on any image for a larger view

Related





Note:  Sanibel, St. James City, Iona, much of Cape Coral, and Fort Myers Beach are in the current mandatory evacuation area

Everglades City, Goodland, and Chokoloskee are under mandatory evacuation orders.


A Requiem for Florida

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Irma Regains Strength in Route to Florida
At 2:00 am the National Hurricane Center updated Hurricane Irma's status to a Category 4 Hurricane with a minimum pressure of 931 mb and maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, moving NW at 6 mph.

Hurricane Irma is currently forecast to be just north of the Naval Air Station Key West at noon on Sep 10, 2017 (24.7N 81.7W).

In 24 hours the hurricane is forecast to be at about 26.8N 82.4W or just off shore of Boca Grande and Port Charlotte.

Overnight Sep 10 - Sep 11 the storm will likely pass over or very near Tampa, one of the few times in history that a major storm has impacted Tampa.
Expected impacts from Irma
Irma is still predicted to “run the peninsula”, taking an unusual track from south-southeast to north-northwest along the length of the state. This forecast track has steadily nudged west since Thursday, and Irma is now expected to track closer to Florida’s west coast than its east coast. Models are now in very close agreement, and we expect little significant shift to this track outlook.

Parts of the Florida Keys will experience extreme winds and storm surge. On its west-northwest heading late Saturday, Irma was aimed toward the west of Key West, which would put the the city on the storm's more dangerous right-hand side. However, Irma is beginning to angle rightward, and this will most likely bring its core somewhere near or just east of Key West between around 2 and 8 am Sunday. Winds of 120 mph or more can be expected just east of the eye, and storm surge is predicted to range from 5 to 10 feet.

CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE
A catastrophic storm surge is increasingly likely from Fort Myers to Naples on Sunday afternoon as Irma passes along or just to the west of this coastline. Surge values of 10 to 15 feet are expected from Cape Sable to Captiva. Vanderbilt Beach at Naples experienced a peak surge of 10-13 feet during Hurricane Charley, and Captiva Island experienced a surge of 6.5 feet. Irma’s surge will be more widespread and devastating to southwest Florida than the surge experienced during Charley, since Irma is a much bigger storm and has had more time to build up a larger surge. Parts of this coastline may also experience destructive Category 2 or 3 winds if Irma intensifies as expected and its center remains just offshore. Assuming that Irma moves inland between Fort Myers and Tampa as predicted, surge values northward through the Tampa area will be somewhat lower, but still potentially 5 to 8 feet. It would take a significant jump westward in the forecast track to put Tampa on the more dangerous right-hand side of the storm.

If Irma’s track holds, the Miami area can expect top sustained winds of 60 - 80 mph, with a long period of tropical-storm-force winds. Expect widespread tree damage and power outages, and perhaps extensive damage to the facades and windows of the upper stories of skyscrapers, where winds will be considerably stronger. Winds will be somewhat weaker northward into Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach, but a few hours of 40 - 60 mph sustained winds are possible here. Surge in the Biscayne Bay area is not expected to be catastrophic, but it could be significant (4 to 6 feet), with sharp local variations as the storm moves by to the west.

A pocket of 60 – 80 mph sustained winds may develop Sunday night across central Florida as Irma passes just to the west. These winds could be as strong or stronger than those produced in the Orlando area by Hurricane Charley in 2004. Winds may also approach or exceed hurricane force along the northeast Florida coast, including the Jacksonville area, late Sunday night.

Significant storm surge of 4 to 6 feet remains possible in Georgia and southern South Carolina. The higher end of this range could rival some all-time records at coastal tidal gauges, including 5.06 feet set at Fort Pulaski, Georgia, during Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Expect widespread areas with damaging tropical-storm-force winds across northern Florida and southern Georgia, enough to down trees and power lines.

Torrential rains of 7 – 15”, with local totals exceeding 20”, can be expected across most of Florida and southeast Georgia. These amounts will not rival the 40 – 50” totals from Hurricane Harvey, because Irma will not be stalling over Florida as Harvey did over Texas. Rains of 2 – 5” may affect northern Georgia, including Atlanta, from Monday into Tuesday as Irma angles toward the west.
click on any image for a larger view

What About Tampa?
Tampa's Hurricane History
Only 2 Major Hurricanes Since 1848

Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. This is because the city faces the ocean to the west, and the prevailing east-to-west trade winds at that latitude make it uncommon for a storm to make a direct hit on the west coast of Florida from the ocean. This is fortunate, since the large expanse of shallow continental shelf waters offshore from Tampa Bay (less than 300 feet deep out to 90 miles offshore) is conducive for allowing large storm surges to build. Tampa Bay is most vulnerable to large storm surges from storms approaching from the southwest or west and passing just north of the city, since the westerly winds in the hurricane's eyewall will force a massive storm surge directly into the bay. Tampa Bay is much less vulnerable to large storm surges from a storm approaching from the south, like Irma, since the hurricane's winds will be blowing offshore until the eye of the storm passes to the north. At that time, the winds will reverse and bring a storm surge into Tampa Bay.

The last time Tampa suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. This low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds at landfall brought a storm tide of 10 - 11.5 feet (3 - 3.5 meters), causing severe damage ($10 million in 1921 dollars.) The only other major hurricane to hit the city occurred on September 25, 1848, when the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. A 15-foot storm surge (4.6 meters) was observed in what is now downtown Tampa, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies, in Pinellas County, was inundated, making St. Petersburg an island. A large portion of what few human structures were then in the area were destroyed.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 35 years

Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 35 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past twenty years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004.


Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
When the 1921 hurricane hit Tampa Bay, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.8 million residents in the region, and that number is growing by about 50,000 people per year. Most of the population in the 4-county Tampa Bay region lives along the coast in low-lying areas; about 50 percent of the population lives at an elevation less than ten feet. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when an evacuation order was given for 2004's Category 4 Hurricane Charley.

Global warming may make extreme Tampa hurricanes up to 14 times more likely
Using a detailed hurricane model embedded within six different global climate models, hurricane scientists Kerry Emanuel of MIT and Ning Lin of Princeton University showed in a 2015 paper that the risk of extreme “grey swan” hurricanes in Tampa may increase by up to a factor of fourteen by the end of the century, thanks to human-caused climate change. Grey swan hurricane are storms so violent that they have never been observed in the historical record, but can be anticipated to occur in the future. See Jeff Masters’ blog post on the subject.
A Requiem for Florida
From:  A Requiem for Florida, the Paradise That Should Never Have Been
As Hurricane Irma prepares to strike, it’s worth remembering that Mother Nature never intended us to live here.

By MICHAEL GRUNWALD
September 08, 2017, Politico.com, Politico Magazine

ORLANDO, Fla.—The first Americans to spend much time in South Florida were the U.S. Army men who chased the Seminole Indians around the peninsula in the 1830s. And they hated it. Today, their letters read like Yelp reviews of an arsenic café, denouncing the region as a “hideous,” “loathsome,” “diabolical,” “God-abandoned” mosquito refuge.

“Florida is certainly the poorest country that ever two people quarreled for,” one Army surgeon wrote. “It was the most dreary and pandemonium-like region I ever visited, nothing but barren wastes.” An officer summarized it as “swampy, low, excessively hot, sickly and repulsive in all its features.” The future president Zachary Taylor, who commanded U.S. troops there for two years, groused that he wouldn’t trade a square foot of Michigan or Ohio for a square mile of Florida. The consensus among the soldiers was that the U.S. should just leave the area to the Indians and the mosquitoes; as one general put it, “I could not wish them all a worse place.” Or as one lieutenant complained: “Millions of money has been expended to gain this most barren, swampy, and good-for-nothing peninsula.”

Today, Florida’s southern thumb has been transformed into a subtropical paradise for millions of residents and tourists, a sprawling megalopolis dangling into the Gulf Stream that could sustain hundreds of billions of dollars in damage if Hurricane Irma makes a direct hit. So it’s easy to forget that South Florida was once America’s last frontier, generally dismissed as an uninhabitable and undesirable wasteland, almost completely unsettled well after the West was won. “How far, far out of the world it seems,” Iza Hardy wrote in an 1887 book called Oranges and Alligators: Sketches of South Florida. And Hardy ventured only as far south as Orlando, which is actually central Florida, nearly 250 miles north of Miami. Back then, only about 300 hardy pioneers lived in modern-day South Florida. Miami wasn’t even incorporated as a city until 1896. And even then an early visitor declared that if he owned Miami and hell, he would rent out Miami and live in hell.

There was really just one reason South Florida remained so unpleasant and so empty for so long: water. The region was simply too soggy and swampy for development. Its low-lying flatlands were too vulnerable to storms and floods. As a colorful governor with the colorful name of Napoleon Bonaparte Broward put it: “Water is the common enemy of the people of Florida.” So in the 20th century, Florida declared war on its common enemy, vowing to subdue Mother Nature, eventually making vast swaths of floodplains safe for the president to build golf courses and Vanilla Ice to flip houses and my kids to grow up in the sunshine. Water control—even more than air conditioning or bug spray or Social Security—enabled the spectacular growth of South Florida. It’s a pretty awesome place to live, now that so much of its swamp has been drained, much better than Boston or Brooklyn in the winter, and, for the obvious economic and political reasons, much better than Havana or Caracas all year long.
But Mother Nature still gets her say. Water control has ravaged the globally beloved Everglades and the rest of the South Florida ecosystem in ways that imperil our way of life as well as the local flora and fauna. And sometimes, as we’re about to be reminded, water can’t be controlled. Hurricanes routinely tore through South Florida even before hundreds of gleaming skyscrapers and thousands of red-roof subdivisions sprouted in their path. Our collective willingness not to dwell on that ugly inevitability has also enabled the region’s spectacular growth.

I was thinking about all this on Thursday while evacuating my family from our home in Miami to my mother-in-law’s home near Orlando, which, incidentally, one Seminole War veteran called “by far the poorest and most miserable region I ever beheld.” Our house is about 17 feet above sea level, which is practically Everest in South Florida terms, but we were still in a mandatory evacuation zone, because nothing in this part of the world is safe from a killer like Irma. Over the last century, we’ve built a weird but remarkable civilization down here in a weird and unsustainable way. This weekend, history’s bill might come due.

More than a half-century before the Pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock, a Spanish adventurer named Pedro Menendez de Aviles landed in North Florida, and began preparing for battle with French Lutherans who coveted the same territory. Then a hurricane destroyed the French fleet on the open seas. Menendez took this as a sign from God, and gleefully slaughtered the rest of the “evil and detestable Protestants” in an inlet he proudly named Matanzas, Spanish for “massacre.” He went on to create St. Augustine, America’s oldest permanent settlement, an enduring reminder that Florida’s history was forged by storms as well as blood.

Menendez dreamed of colonizing the whole peninsula, but he made no progress in the backwaters of southern Florida; as his nephew reported to the king in 1570, the entire region was “liable to overflow, and of no use.” And it stayed that way for the next few centuries. That’s because it was dominated by the Everglades, an inhospitable expanse of impenetrable sawgrass marshland, described in an 1845 Treasury Department report as “suitable only for the haunt of noxious vermin, or the resort of pestilential reptiles.” White men avoided it, because they viewed wetlands as wastelands. As late as 1897, five years after the historian Frederick Jackson Turner declared the closing of the Western frontier, an explorer named Hugh Willoughby embarked on a Lewis-and-Clark-style journey of discovery through the Everglades in a dugout canoe. “It may seem strange, in our days of Arctic and African exploration for the public to learn that in our very midst, in one of our Atlantic coast states, we have a tract of land 130 miles long and 70 miles wide that is as much unknown to the white man as the heart of Africa,” Willoughby wrote.

But white men began to realize that South Florida had real potential if they could figure out how to drain its “monstrous” swamp. Governor Broward vowed to dig a few canals and create an instant “Empire of the Everglades,” a winter garden that would grow food for the world and cities larger than Chicago. Swindlers sold swampland to suckers, turning Florida real estate into a land-by-the-gallon punchline. Pioneers flocked to long-forgotten marshy boom towns with names like Utopia and Hope City and Gladesview, buying lots that looked great in the dry season only to find that they still flooded regularly during the rainy season.

Meanwhile, the Standard Oil baron Henry Flagler built a railroad down the east coast, luring tourists to beachfront towns like Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami, setting the stage for a wild 1920s land bubble that rivaled the 17th century Dutch tulip craze. Motor-mouthed “binder boys” in knickers known as “acreage trousers” mobbed the streets of Miami, harassing pedestrians to buy and sell lots that often changed hands three times a day. One entrepreneur bought and resold a contract for a $10,000 profit on a stroll down Flagler Street. The New York Times started a stand-alone Florida real estate section. “Nobody in Florida thinks of anything else in these days when the peninsula is jammed with visitors from end to end and side to side,” the Times reported. The insanity was immortalized by the Marx Brothers movie Cocoanuts, with Groucho capturing Florida’s sleazy new land ethic: “You can even get stucco! Oh boy, can you get stucco.”

Pretty soon, South Florida got stucco. In 1926, a few weeks after the Miami Herald urged its readers not to worry about hurricanes because “there is more risk to life from venturing across a busy street,” a Category 4 storm flattened Miami, killing 400 and abruptly ending the coastal boom.Then in 1928, another Category 4 storm blasted Lake Okeechobee through its flimsy dike, killing 2,500 and abruptly ending the Everglades boom. It was the second-deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history, and afterward Florida’s attorney general testified before Congress that much of the southern half of his state might be unsuited to human habitation: “I’ve heard it advocated that what the people ought to do is build a wall down there and keep the military there to keep people from coming in.”

Needless to say, nobody built a wall. But America finally did get serious about draining the swamp. The Army Corps of Engineers, the shock troops in the nation’s war on Mother Nature, built the most elaborate water management system of its day, 2,000 miles of levees and canals along with pumps so powerful some of the engines would have to be cannibalized from nuclear submarines. The engineers aimed to seize control of just about every drop of water that falls on South Florida, whisking it out to sea to prevent flooding in the flatlands. They made it possible for Americans to farm 400,000 acres of sugar fields in the northern Everglades, to visit Disney World at the headwaters of the Everglades, to drive on the Palmetto and Sawgrass Expressways where palmettos and sawgrass used to be. They made South Florida safe for a long boom that has occasionally paused but has never really stopped, bringing 8 million people to the Everglades watershed, pushing the state’s population from 27th in the nation before World War II to third in the nation today.

But they made South Florida safe only most of the time, not all of the time. Now the Big One might be coming, with millions more people and structures in harm’s way than there were in 1926 or 1928. And Mother Nature looks pissed.

Last year, Florida’s “Treasure Coast,” about 100 miles north of Miami, made national news when its sparkling estuary was shrouded in toxic glop that looked like guacamole and smelled like a sewer. This was an economic as well as environmental disaster, shredding the fishing and tourism industries around the town of Stuart. And it’s not a huge stretch to think of it as the latest damage created by the 1928 hurricane. Water managers don’t want Lake Okeechobee’s dike to fail again now that there’s a civilization behind it, so they routinely blast filthy water from the lake into the fragile estuaries to the east and west. Sometimes, glop happens.

The problem, like most problems in South Florida, is a water problem. Half the Everglades has been drained or paved for agriculture and development, so in the rainy season, water managers have to dump excess water into estuaries and what’s left of the Everglades. Then it’s no longer available in the dry season, which is why South Florida now faces structural droughts that create wildfires in the Everglades and endanger the region’s drinking water, which happens to sit underneath the Everglades. Meanwhile, the Everglades itself—once reviled as a vile backwater, now revered as an ecological treasure—has all kinds of problems of its own, including 69 endangered species. In 2000, Congress approved the largest environmental restoration project in history to try to resuscitate the Everglades, an unprecedented effort to fix South Florida’s water problems for people and farms as well as nature. But 17 years later, virtually no progress has been made. It’s a real mess.


But the fundamental issue is that South Florida is an artificial civilization, engineered and air-conditioned to insulate its residents and tourists from the realities of its natural landscape. We call animal control when alligators wander into our backyards, and it doesn’t occur to us that we’ve wandered into the alligators’ backyard. Most residents of suburban communities carved out of Everglades swampland—Weston, Wellington, Miami Springs, Miami Lakes—are blissfully oblivious to the intricate water diversion strategies that their government officials use to keep them dry every day. Most South Floridians don’t think much about climate change, either, even though it’s creating more intense storms, even though the rising seas around Miami Beach now flood low-lying neighborhoods on sunny days during high tide. People tend not to think too much about existential threats to the places they live. They just live.

And they keep coming. Twenty-five years ago, Hurricane Andrew ripped through Miami’s southern exurbs, but the homes destroyed were quickly replaced, and most of us who live here now weren’t here then. So we weren’t really ready for Irma, even though at some level we knew it was possible. It’s conceivable that Irma will finally shut down our insatiable growth machine, but I wouldn’t bet on that. Our inclination towards collective amnesia is just too strong.

The thing is, it’s really nice here, except when it isn’t. Those Seminole War soldiers would be stunned to see how this worthless hellscape of swarming mosquitoes and sodden marshes has become a high-priced dreamscape of swimming pools and merengue and plastic surgery and Mar-a-Lago. It probably isn’t sustainable. But until it gets wiped out—and maybe even after—there’s still going to be a market for paradise. Most of us came here to escape reality, not to deal with it.

Florida Hurricane Blackout Day 8

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Sunset over the flooded St. Johns River at Debary as Day 8 of post-Hurricane Irma Blackout Continuesfor Parts of Central Florida
We cannot reach anyone at Duke Energy, only recordings, despite the fact that one of their power plants is adjacent to our blacked-out neighbornood.

We did find the $15 million/year
CEO of DUKE ENERGY
LYNN GOOD's
direct phone line
704-382-7649 
lynn.good@duke-energy.com 

You can help us out by slamming that phone number and email address demanding that Duke Energy do something to restore power
Above:  Phillip, atop a huge pile of Hurricane Irma debris.  A twister took the top out of 20 or more trees at the back of our Debary property

As for the politicians patting themselves on the back for the speedy hurricane recovery.  Don't believe anything you hear from #donaldtrump, #marcorubio, #brocklong, #fema, #dukeenergy, #rickscott   Many of us are still very much in the heat and dark and even more have no real access to cable, internet, etc.

I am blogging via spotty cellular.
On day 6 post Hurricane Irma I made a big bonfire to signal the political establishment, but they were too busy congratulating each other to notice that rural Florida is still very much in the dark.
 #dukeenergyirmafailure 
#nopower

Supercharged Hurricanes

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San Juan National Weather Service radar loop as Category 5 Hurricane Maria bears down on the island packing 165 mph sustained winds.

Rapid Intensification
“Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye,” wrote National Hurricane Center forecaster Jack Beven on Monday evening, as the storm reached Category 4 intensity.

That inward contraction of a hurricane’s eye can be one telltale indicator of what hurricane gurus technically call “rapid intensification,” although a more evocative word might simply be “explosion.” Whatever you call it, it’s something we keep seeing this year. Harvey, Irma, Jose and now Maria have rapidly strengthened — and all too often, have done it just before striking land.

It’s a dangerous and scary phenomenon that scientists and forecasters are still trying to understand.

“It’s not a common event. Typically, that occurs in maybe 5 percent of our forecasts,” said Mark DeMaria, acting deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.


The dreaded "pinhole" eye
Hurricane Maria developed a tiny “pinhole” eye during its rapid intensification burst on Monday, September 18, 2107 with a diameter of 8 nautical miles (nm). The hurricane maintained a small eye through Tuesday, the 19th while striking Dominica, with the diameter fluctuating between 7 nm and 10 nm (10 nm = 11.5 miles).

Hurricanes that develop pinhole eyes often intensify into some of the strongest storms we observe, since they concentrate their wind energy around a narrow ring surrounding the tiny eye. These small eyes tend to be unstable, resulting in an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) shortly after the pinhole eye is observed. Some other examples of tropical cyclones with pinhole eyes with a diameter less than 10 nm:

Hurricane Wilma - 2005 (175 MPH / 882 MB) - Western Caribbean - 1.5 nm
Hurricane Iris – 2001 (140 MPH / 950 MB) - Western Caribbean – 3 nm
Hurricane Beta - 2005 (115 MPH / 962 MB) - Nicaragua - 5 nm
Hurricane Dennis - 2005 (120 MPH / 930 MB) - Florida - 4 nm
Hurricane Charley - 2004 (150 MPH / 941 MB) - Florida - 2.5 nm
Hurricane Opal - 1995 (150 MPH / 919 MB) - Florida - 5 nm
Hurricane Andrew - 1992 (165 MPH / 921 MB) - Florida - 6 nm
Typhoon Forrest - 1983 (165 MPH / 883 MB) - Philippines - 4 nm
Cyclone Tracy - 1974 (125 MPH / 950 MB) - Australia - 7 nm

But DeMaria said that this season is seeing more rapid intensification events than usual and that Maria, in particular, appears to have set a key record for hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic.

“Looking back through the records, Maria went from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in just two and a half days,” he said. “I couldn’t find any other tropical cyclones in our historical record that went that quickly from a depression to a Category 5 hurricane.” 

That’s a big problem, because rapid intensification sets the stage for worst-case scenarios. Sadly, that’s what happened to the Caribbean island of Dominica on Monday night, hit by Maria at full Category 5 strength. 

There’s little chance to warn people or for them to prepare if rapid intensification occurs, so forecasters naturally want to be able to have a handle on it — but it’s a struggle.


“One of the key issues is that it remains quite difficult to predict on a day-to-day basis. And of course, it’s something we would very much like to be able to predict, especially when an intensifying storm is near land,” said Gabriel Vecchi, a hurricane expert at Princeton University.

The National Hurricane Center technically defines rapid intensification as a wind speed increase of at least 35 miles per hour in 24 hours. All four of the most intense Atlantic storms in 2017 beat that easily:

—On the evening of Aug. 24, a day before landfall, Harvey was a Category 1 hurricane with 85-mile-per hour winds. Twenty-four hours later, at landfall in Texas, the storm was a Category 4with 130-mile-per-hour winds.

—At 11 a.m. on Monday, Sept. 4, Hurric
ane Irma was already a strong Category 3 storm with 120-mile-per-hour winds. But Irma then radically strengthened further, becoming a superpowered upper-end Category 5 storm with 180-mile-per-hour winds in just 24 hours. 

—Following behind Irma in the middle of the day on Sept. 7, Hurricane Jose was a Category 1 storm with 90-mile-per-hour winds. Twenty-four hours later, it was rated a high-end Category 4 with 150-mile-per-hour winds. 

—Beven’s “pinhole eye” language came as Hurricane Maria reached Category 4 intensity, despite having been a Category 1 just 12 hours earlier. But Maria wasn’t done. The storm would leap further to Category 5 strength, ultimately increasing in intensity by 65 miles per hour in 24 hours.

While scientists don’t fully understand rapid intensification, they do know that it has something to do with hurricanes being in a highly favorable environment for intensification in general.

Rapid strengthening tends to happen when waters are warm, when that warm water is deep, when the atmosphere is moist and when there’s little adverse wind flow that could disrupt the storm, according to research papers on the topic and interviews with experts.

And broadly speaking, what we appear to be seeing this year — similar to the catastrophic Atlantic hurricane season of 2005 — is that the environment is extremely hurricane friendly. Storms simply rev their engines and find that the fuel is of the highest grade, and there’s a deep well of it. Then they take off, and there’s nothing to disrupt them.


Potential Intensity
One key scientific concept that helps explain how such an environment creates the conditions for rapid hurricane intensification is the idea of “potential intensity” — defined as the maximum strength that a hurricane can theoretically achieve in a given environment. That doesn’t mean the storm will actually get there, but when potential intensities are high, you have to worry about what storms are capable of doing — including spinning up very fast.

“Rapid intensification likes to occur when the potential intensity is far from the actual intensity,” said Jim Kossin, a hurricane scientist with NOAA and the University of Wisconsin at Madison. “Rapid intensification likes a lot of head room. Those warm waters have been creating some very high potential intensity, which increases the head room.”

But none of this is, necessarily, enough. Scientists don’t understand every single spark necessary to create a rapid intensifier, which is what makes solving this atmospheric problem so difficult.

“What makes it so mysterious is that there’s a lot of what we call necessary conditions, but they’re not always sufficient,” said Kieran Bhatia, a postdoctoral research associate at Princeton University who is studying the subject.

“We know that certain thresholds need to be met for rapid intensification to occur, but it doesn’t mean that as soon as these switches are turned on, rapid intensification will initiate.”

One of the most striking things about rapid intensification is that according to recent research, it seems to effectively separate out the storms that reach high intensities from those that do not. In a 2015 study, Chia-Ying Lee of Columbia University and colleagues found that hurricanes around the world tend to come in two big bunches — the ones that reach a relatively low intensity, and the ones that get quite strong. And the study found that 79 percent of the latter storms, the strong ones, undergo rapid intensification.

The researchers therefore inferred that this process may be fundamental to determining how many strong storms form — and how that will change under global warming. “A complete understanding of the most intense storms in either the current climate or future (or past) climates may need to include some understanding of [rapid intensification],” Lee and colleagues wrote.

MIT’s hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel has similarly provided reasons for thinking rapid intensification could get worse in a warming climate.

Three Major Hurricane Strikes and Counting:  A Policy Disaster

There's something unnatural about these disasters


As the United States struggles to deal with three back-to-back major hurricanes, it would be wise to reflect on why we keep having such calamities and whether they are likely to get worse.

We must first recognize the phrase "natural disaster" for what it is: subterfuge we hide behind to avoid our own culpability. Hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and wildfires are part of nature, and the natural world has long ago adapted to them. Disasters occur when we move to risky places and build inadequate infrastructure and particularly when we continue to destabilize the atmosphere.

In the United States, we have in place a range of policies that all but guarantees a worsening string of Katrinas, Sandys, Harveys and Irmas as far as we can see into the future. Climate change acts as a threat-multiplier to these policy-generated disasters, making them progressively worse than they would have been in a stable climate.

The U.S. hurricane policy disaster has its roots in the hijacking of politics by special interests. In a free market, risk is largely communicated through pricing. Smokers pay greater health insurance premiums to cover the added risk of their voluntary activity. In a rational world, premiums in hurricane-prone places would be sufficiently high to reflect the actual risk to the property.


But agitation by coastal property owners has resulted in a rigged system in which states place caps on property insurance premiums, or on the maximum difference between premiums charged to risky and less risky customers, forcing the latter to subsidize the former. Hurricane storm surges and freshwater flooding are covered by the National Flood Insurance Program, and here too agitation has resulted in rates that do not adequately reflect the risk. Congress revamped this program in 2012, only to retract many of those changes in 2014 in response to a backlash from flood-prone homeowners.

On top of this, federal disaster relief, as necessary as it may be, inadvertently subsidizes risk. As a consequence of these subsidies, coastal populations are rising much faster than the general population. Globally, the population exposed to hurricane hazards has tripled since 1970, and the trend shows no signs of abating.

To make matters worse, human population explosion feeding rapid climate change is increasing the probabilities of hurricane disasters in many places. Rising sea levels worsen storm surges, often the most deadly and destructive aspects of hurricanes. Sandy would probably not have flooded Lower Manhattan had it occurred 100 years earlier, when sea levels were about a foot lower in New York.

The physical cap on hurricane wind speeds rises in a warming climate, permitting more intense storms like Irma to develop, and observations show that this cap is indeed rising. Basic physics tells us that hurricanes produce more rain in a warmer climate. Computer simulations confirm that the incidence of intense, destructive storms rises and that hurricane flooding from rain and storm surges gets worse in warmer climates, though the frequency of weaker storms may actually decline.

We are beginning to see trends in hurricane observations. Katrina's storm surge was the largest in U.S. history. Sandy achieved the largest diameter of any Atlantic hurricane on record. Western North Pacific typhoon Haiyan of 2013 achieved the highest wind speed of any tropical cyclone in global history, a record broken in 2015 by eastern North Pacific Hurricane Patricia. Harvey dumped more rain than any hurricane in the United States, and Irma maintained Category 5 status longer than any storm anywhere on the planet.

Deniers point out that most trends in the noisy hurricane database do not rise to the high bar of 95 percent certainty that we scientists place on signal detection, implying that no action should be taken until that level of certainty is achieved. That's rather like saying that you will let your 8-year-old cross a busy highway unless it can be proven with 95 percent certainty that she will be run over. Being conservative in risk assessment is the opposite of being conservative in signal detection.

The confluence of rising sea levels and stronger and wetter hurricanes with increasing coastal population and unwise government interference in insurance markets portends ever increasing hurricane disasters. The hurricane policy disaster is a result of too much regulation; the failure to reduce human population growth and greenhouse gas emissions arises from too little. Citizens of all political persuasions should demand that their representatives attack both these problems lest we condemn our children and their descendants to increasing incidence of the kind of misery now being experienced in Texas, Florida, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

Climate Change and Hurricane Political Cartoons

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We've Read:
Evasions and lies we’re seeing on the Graham-Cassidy-Trumpcare bill have been standard G.O.P. operating procedure for years. The trick of converting federal programs into block grants, then pretending that this wouldn’t mean savage cuts, was central to every one of Paul Ryan’s much-hyped budgets. The trick of comparing dollar numbers over time to conceal huge benefit cuts has been around since the 1990s.  In other words, Graham-Cassidy-Trumpcare isn’t an aberration; it’s more like the distilled essence of everything wrong with modern Republicans.

U.S. counties at the greatest risk of hurricanes, earthquakes, and other catastrophes saw the fastest home-price appreciation, a new report says.
“We will find our island destroyed,” Abner Gómez, Puerto Rico’s emergency management director, warned before Maria’s eye had cleared the island. “It’s a system that has destroyed everything it has had in its path.”
The most recent estimates of the widespread damage to Florida's already diseased trees put the fruit loss statewide as high as 70%

Hurricanes are far from Florida Citrus' only struggles. In 2005, a stubborn and debilitating disease called huanglongbing, or citrus greening, was discovered in Florida groves. The disease, which causes bitter and deformed fruits, has since reduced Florida orange and grapefruit revenues by $4.64 billion, according to Jacqueline Burns, the dean for research at the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agriculture Sciences. It’s also believed to have cost the state economy an estimated $1.76 billion in job losses.

As if that weren’t bad enough, the discovery of the disease coincided with one of the worst hurricane seasons Florida had previously seen. Hurricanes Charley, Frances and Jeanne in 2004 slashed orange crops by a third. Growers suffered several more years of near record-low yields after that as injured trees and groves recovered.

Now, many fear the damage from Irma could be even worse.

Florida Swamp Sunflowers

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Most Octobers the St. Johns River Basin is awash with native sunflowers.  Tghis year may be a little difficult as polluted floodwaters have spread far across the floodplain of the river in the wake of Hurricane Irma.  Perhaps when the flood recedes the sunflowers will reemerge.

Pictured above the Narrow-leaved Sunflower (Helianthus angustifolius L.) spread across the horizon and extend to 10 feet tall. This sunflower which is also appropriately called the "Swamp Sunflower."

In the background the State Tree of Florida (the Cabbage Palm or Sabal palmetto) almost hidden by the sea of sunflowers.  There had been enough moisture this year to encourage growth of the flowers before the flood, but not enough to fill the St. Johns back to a normal level.  Below, 6'2" (1.88 m) I stand against a backdrop of taller sunflowers just before the storm hit.

This area is now underwater.  I've been documenting the flood this week and will get those photos up soon.


ABOVE: A Gulf fritillary (Agraulis vanillae) feasting on the flowers.


On the horizon — miles behind me — are Sabal Palm forests where the water would extend at the end of a normal rainy season. Today the water extends miles beyond that horizon.

As you can see a couple weeks ago it was tough to make out any water except in the top right of the image.  

Further east from the river a pair of Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis) forages near race horses practicing in the vast flat fields that are the river's flood plain. To the west of the river little natural land remains. It has all been claimed for developments inexorably linked to Orlando.
Its not too soon to think about 2018 elections.  We have to Vote Democrat.  That is the only way to Save America, Save Medicare, and Save Medicaid

St. Johns River Flood

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The post-Hurricane Irma flood of the middle St. Johns River is ongoing 2 weeks after the hurricane's foot of rain left the river spilling over into the broader floodplain creating catastrophic conditions for some people and worse for the fish that live in the river.  Toxic urban runoff is causing a massive fish kill on the middle St. Johns especially in the Lake Harney to Lake Monroe to Lake Beresford areas.  Regardless, the overflowing river is picture perfect if not a bit smelly with all the dead fish and garbage it is slowly transporting northward.
Nor'Easter Will Exacerbate St. Johns River Flooding and May Lead to New Inundations
Watching the waters near Florida next week for new development
One area we need to watch for development early next week is the waters surrounding Florida. A trough of low pressure over the region will be joined by a cold front that will push south over the Florida peninsula on Saturday and then stall near South Florida by Sunday. An area of low pressure capable of developing into a tropical depression could form along the front over the weekend or early next week; this development could occur on either the Gulf or Atlantic side of the Florida Peninsula.

About 30% of the 70 members of the 0Z Wednesday GFS and European model ensemble predicted development of a tropical depression in the waters surrounding Florida by early next week, and the 12Z operational run of the GFS model predicted that an area of low pressure close to tropical depression strength would form on Saturday afternoon, a few hundred miles east of the Central Florida coast. Steering currents early next week will be pushing anything that might develop westward, into the Gulf of Mexico. The next name on the Atlantic list is Nate.

Strong high pressure will build into the northeast U.S. and down the east coast the last weekend of September while weak low pressure forms off the Florida east coast. This will greatly increase the pressure gradient over the area which will likely produce dangerous weather conditions and possibly Gales this weekend extending into the middle of next week as strong northeasterly winds and seas increase. Coastal flooding and beach erosion with dangerous rip currents will also likely occur. 

Very prolonged Nor'easter type of event, has a significant potential of trapping tidal waters again in the St. Johns River Basin during astronomically high tide period next week, quite feasibly to October 2015 levels. Astronomical tidal levels are anticipated to be .9 to 1.1 feet above normal without the winds, the combination of astronomical high tides in concert with trapped tides due to the large fetch (300 to 500 miles long) over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean of 25 to 30 mph winds may cause many vulnerable areas such as San Marco and Riverside southward into Palatka to be very susceptible to flooding during high tide with waxing then eventually full moon next week.

Additionally, heavy rain is forecast to fall the length of the St. Johns River, much of which is currently experiencing moderate to major flooding, particularly in the areas around Geneva and Lake Harney.  Discharge from the river will be slowed, stopped, or reversed at Jacksonville as the river becomes trapped by the forecast steady northeasterly winds.  This confluence of weather phenomena may lead to new inundations along the middle St. Johns River.
 Above, the bankfull river, looking north toward Lake Jesup from the SR 415 bridge.
 Above, the river is over the sea walls and spilling into downtown Sanford, Florida
 Above, one of the few boat ramps that appears to be sort-of open, at Deltona.  Boating is perilous in the current flooded conditions so the river is mostly free of watercraft.
Above, our ramp at Highbanks has disappeared beneath the flood waters.  There is a stern sign that says "Trespassers Will Be Prosecuted" leading us to believe the river is closed.

While we were unaware of any official ban on boating on the St. Johns River we have seen virtually no traffic on the river in recent days aside from canoes or kayaks.  We were able to find one executive order, for Seminole County, banning river access during nighttime hours (see below).  Boating at any time of day while the river is flooded could be perilous.
Millions of Dead Fish Make for Nightmare Conditions In and Near the St. Johns River
Biological Magnification
Today we noticed more vultures and wading birds feasting on dead fish.  This is not necessarily a good thing, because of biological magnification.  Whatever toxins killed the fish (likely petrochemical and fertilizer runoff) could be transferred to whatever eats them.  

Biological magnification refers to the process whereby certain substances such as pesticides or heavy metals move up the food chain, work their way into rivers or lakes, and are eaten by aquatic organisms such as fish, which in turn are eaten by large birds, animals or humans.  In the process of moving through the food chain the toxins are increased exponentially in each successive individual.


We've spotted mats of hundreds of dead fish floating everywhere from Blue Spring to neighborhood streets in Geneva to downtown Sanford to the Deltona-Debary waterfronts. 

Water was temporarily over SR 46 around the Brevard, Seminole, Volusia County line near Lake Harney.

Florida's Most Endangered

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Is it Clitoria mariana or is it Clitoria fragrans (or something else)?  The park rangers at Blue Spring State Park near Orange City insist that this is the rare Clitoria fragrans (also known as Pigeon Wings, Fragrant Pigeon Wings, or Butterfly Pea).

Either way it is a rare find as both species are in decline in Florida as development continues unabated particularly on the sandhills where this plant once thrived.

Pigeon Wings and Butterfly Peas (Centrosema spp.) have flowers that are similar but have very different growth forms.  Butterfly peas are herbaceous vines while Pigeon Wings are upright herbs.  Fragrant pigeonwings (C. fragrans) can be distinguished from their close cousin Atlantic pigeonwings (C. mariana) by their much wider leaves.

In this case I found several individuals that appeared to be herbaceous vines while several others appeared to be upright herbs.   In all cases the leaves appeared rather wide and pea-like.
This rare species of flowering plant in the legume family is endemic to Central Florida where there are thought to be fewer than 70 individual occurrences (there is no accurate estimate of the global population remaining).  The plant is listed on Florida and the federal government's endangered species list.
Copious rains during and after Hurricane Irma, in September of 2017, brought on a blooming event of these elusive Pigeon Wings.  
This plant once grew on undisturbed areas of Florida scrub habitat, often in the transition zone between scrub and sandhill areas.  There are very, very few such areas remaining.  Habitat destruction and fragmentation is a threat to this plant and other Florida scrub natives.
Clitoria mariana is virtually identical to Clitoria fragrens but occurs over a much larger range of North America.
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Puerto Rican Devastation
and Trump Administration Denials
in Political Cartoons




Pygmy Rattlesnake

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I encountered this beautiful Pygmy Rattlesnake (Sistrurus miliarius) while putting the canoe in the Wekiva River.  These snakes are venomous pit vipers native to Florida and the southeast USA.  However, they are rare, shy, and rarely encountered.  When encountered if left alone they will retreat, quickly.  I strongly advocate leaving Florida's wildlife alone (including venomous snakes).  The snakes were here long before any humans and they deserve a chance at life just like any other species.
 These snakes are small (that's an acorn near the rattlesnake's head) with adults usually growing only to 16-24-inches (40-60 cm) in length.  The largest ever reported was 31-inches (78.8 cm).  Males and females have found to be about the same size with little sexual dimorphism.

As seen here they have a relatively thick body that is grayish; back and sides are marked with rows of dar gray-black, irregularly shaped blotches.  Blotches on the back are especially dark and are often separated by a reddish-brown stripe down the spine.  Obvious dark bands run from each eye to the corners of the jaw.  The tail is tipped with a tiny rattle that is prone to breaking off.  This specimen had a well-formed 4-5 chambered rattled.
 Pygmy rattlesnakes produce cytotoxic venom that is strongly hemorrhagic and tissue toxic, but devoid of any neurotoxins.  Because the species is so small and unable to produce and deliver large amounts of venom it is unlikely that a bite to an adult human would deliver a fatal dose of venom.  However, it would be an unpleasant few days after any such bite.

The snake's normal diet consists of insects, frogs, lizards, small snakes, nestling birds, and mice.  It will flee from large mammals (humans) when given a chance. 

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 The tiny rattle (close up below) makes ample buzzing noise to get one's attention.  This particular individual was docile and non confrontational.  
 Normally found in flatwoods, sandhills, mixed forests, floodplains and around lakes and marshes these snakes don't dig their own burrows, rather they share burrows dug by gopher tortoises or small rodents.  I have encountered three separate individuals recently likely due to the ongoing flooding of the St. Johns River basin (from Hurricane Irma rains).
 The camouflage on this species is amazing.  Look below at a mostly unedited photo.  If one wasn't really looking closely where they walked they could easily step on this snake in this typical Florida groundcover.  He was near a flooded riverbank on gravel covered with oak leaves, spanish moss, twigs, etc.  Impossible to see easily.  I'm always looking, and I wear polarized, prescription sunglasses, which helps to block out the ever present Florida glare.
Some people call this species the ground rattlesnake, leaf rattler, death rattler, bastard rattlesnake, hog-nosed rattlesnake, or the spotted rattlesnake.  

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Political Cartoonists Respond to Las Vegas Massacre

With each modern American massacre, from schools to theaters to music venues to places of worship, one way to grieve and unite is through art.  Creatively, cartoonists are often the first responders.

In the immediate wake of last week's shooting in Las Vegas that left 59 dead and hundreds injured, there has been a torrent of politically laced words—often the usual volleys about the NRA and the Second Amendment and automatic weapons.

Cutting through the fog, here is how editorial pictures have offered commentary:


Cartoonists across the globe turned to their tools in the wake of the slaughter in Las Vegas that killed 59 people and injured 527 in the deadliest mass shooting in modern US history










Fall in Florida

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Last sunset we'll see for a few days. All of the docks on St. John's River are now at an uncomfortable angle as the river keeps rising. Current forecast is for a crest near record flood stage (17.5 ft) at Cocoa over the weekend. Predicted tropical rains starting this afternoon will exacerbate extant flooding. For all practical purposes the river's entire length remains closed to boating and fishing unless you own a canoe or kayak, too dangerous otherwise.

In Florida Fall has become more of a sun angle change than any noticeable change in weather.  It is still hot, humid, and buggy and will remain so well into November or December.  As this is forecast to be a La Niña winter it will likely remain warm until it gets hot again in February.

Leaf-footed bugs (Coreidae) mating on Emperor's Candlesticks (Senna alata). The insects don't eat the candlesticks but they do munch on my cotton. They are important direct pests of many seed, fruit, vegetable and nut crops but in my gardens they like to climb to the tallest candlesticks and sunflowers for copulation.


Now that most of the dead fish are gone from the St. John's River flood I've been exploring more by kayak and canoe. It is still too flooded and dangerous to launch a motored boat. I have no idea what's causing the algae bloom (green water) here at Wekiva Beach but I do know when I'm too close to a congregation of hungry-looking gators.

White Peacock butterfly (Anartia jatrophae) on Turkey Tangle Fog Fruit (Phyla nodiflora).
Fog Fruit has sprung up on the moist margins of the St. Johns River flood. One of the larval hosts for the White Peacock is Fog Fruit so we're seeing many of the peacocks.  We grew up calling this Verbena family tropical species "Frog Fruit" a corruption of its 17th century name, "Fog," which then-meant grasses that sprung up in fields after the hay was harvested. Fog has subsequently garnered a completely new meaning.

Hiking the Little Big Econ State Forest.
The favored route to the Econlockhatchee River via the Barr Street trailhead in Geneva is still closed due to the Hurricane Irma flood. The 3rd route in from the Snow Hill Bridge is also flooded. This route is a scrub forest hike of 2.7 miles each way to the swollen river.  The Florida Fall is still hot and humid so if you make the hike be prepared for bugs, sweat, and dehydration.

Halloween is Near
some of our favorite scarecrows


We're Following:
Eminem says he's drawing a line in the sand.
In a cypher at the BET Hip Hop Awards, the hip-hop artist slammed President Trump for policies that Eminem considers harmful to America. He also had choice words for those of his fans who voted for Trump in 2016.
Any fan of mine who's a supporter of his / I'm drawing in the sand a line / You're either for or against . . .
Because Eminem's verse was laced with the f-word, we can't post the uncensored version here, but readers can find it elsewhere online. It’s not surprising that Eminem doesn’t like Trump. Some of the loudest criticism of the president in pop culture comes from the hip-hop community. But here’s why Tuesday's rap from Eminem, whom Trump previously called “a winner” during a performance in which the president pretended to endorse the rapper at a mock presidential convention, is resonating on social media and in the political conversation.
Eminem, born Marshall Mathers, rose to fame after starting his career in Detroit's underground hip-hop scene. He was born to a teen mother in a white, working-class family in a small town in Missouri. His family traveled often, looking for work and stability, before settling in a primarily black, working-class Detroit neighborhood where he discovered the freestyle hip-hop battle scene, according to Salon.
Much of Eminem's success in the hip-hop world stemmed from never trying to hide his roots and the chaos that defined them. Many of the stories he tells in his lyrics about his family are reminiscent of those toldin J.D. Vance's breakout “Hillbilly Elegy,” a book about the white working poor in the Rust Belt.
But unlike many white, working-class Trump supporters who count racism against whites as a bigger issue than racism against people of color, Eminem acknowledged many of the very real challenges that black Americans face when it comes to racism, police violence and urban poverty.
Eminem addressed that at various points in the cypher:
Now if you're a black athlete, you're a spoiled little brat for /
Tryina use your platform or your stature /
To try to give those a voice who don't have one
Because of his insight into the worlds of both working-class whites and blacks, Eminem is uniquely qualified to summarize how Trump plays to his base's worst impulses about race in America and address the real issues affecting all of Michigan's residents — the rural white and the urban black voters still fighting for racial equity.
Trump won Michigan, a state that Hillary Clinton and most political observers expected would remain blue like it had in every presidential election since 1988. But the state's white, working-class voters were drawn to Trump's populist message: He would return jobs to the Rust Belt that had left the state over decades.
It was also in Michigan — Detroit specifically — that Trump did some of his most aggressive outreach to black voters with the help of HUD secretary Ben Carson, a onetime Detroit resident.
“I fully understand that the African American community has suffered from discrimination,” Trump told attendees of Great Faith Ministries International in September 2016, adding that there were “many wrongs” that still needed to be “made right.”
However, Trump has since gotten more attention for attacking people such as Detroit native and ESPN anchor Jemele Hill after she called him a “white supremacist” and for calling NFL players “sons of bitches” for kneeling during the national anthem to protest racial injustice. Some of Trump's lowest approval ratings — in the single digits — are among black Americans.
Meanwhile, he is still enjoying relatively high approval ratings with those voters who propelled him to the White House.
Trump had not responded to Eminem on Twitter, but it is fair to assume that he doesn't like it when rappers speak for their audiences by saying 

“We f‑‑‑‑‑g hate Trump.” 

There's an argument to be made that the rapper's lyrics weren't directed at Trump — rather, Eminem was castigating those of his fans who support Trump and have paid no heed to the criticism coming his way.

Climate Change Meets Population Bomb

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Bloody Sunset, Sonoma, October 14, 2017
Photo: Scott Strazzante, SFgate.com
Silhouette of a firefighter in Sonoma on Lovall Valley Road
Photo:  Carlos Avila Gonzales, Special to the Chronicle, SFgate.com
The simple formula is fuel-plus-meteorology-plus-ignition equals fire. The catalyst is people
Deadliest Week in California Wildfire History:  This false-color image created by combining three of the Suomi NPP satellite's high resolution thermal and visible channels from the VIIRS sensor captures the burn scars from the California wildfires which as of Oct. 15th have claimed 41 lives, making this week the deadliest in state history, according to California state officials. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection have confirmed that the 17 active wildfires have burned over 221,750 acres.

“NOTHING MORE than ash and bones.” 



That grim description of how some victims of the Wine Country firestorm were found underscores the horror of the wildfires that swept through and devastated Northern California. At least 41 people were killed, including a 14-year-old boy found dead in the driveway of the home he was trying to flee, a 28-year-woman confined to a wheelchair and a couple who recently had celebrated their 75th anniversary. In addition to the lives lost, approximately 5,700 homes and businesses were destroyed, including entire neighborhoods turned into smoldering ruins. 


Some 220,000 acres, including prized vineyards, have been scorched, and the danger is not over, as some fires are still burning and officials fear the return of winds could spread more catastrophe. Fire season is part of life in California, something that residents know and prepare for after the hot, dry summer months. But the events that began last Sunday have been unprecedented, and so the question that must be confronted is what caused the deadliest week of wildfires in the state’s history.

Gov. Jerry Brown (D) pointed the finger at climate change. “With a warming climate, dry weather and reducing moisture, these kinds of catastrophes have happened and will continue to happen and we have to be ready to mitigate, and it’s going to cost a lot of money,”he said last week. Others point to rapid urbanization fed by relentless population growth.
Global Supertanker Services' 747 leased to Cal Fire drops 18,500 gallons of fire retardant at a time on Wine Country fires

As urbanization grows, so does the risk of wildfire
Over time, the edges of cities have encroached on wild spaces. The close proximity between private property and wildlands allows fires to spread more rapidly and damage or destroy more property in the process.

That allows fires during the fall in California to spread more rapidly into urbanized areas.

Many of these at-risk areas are in wildland-urban interface areas, or WUIs — where housing and vegetation intermix or come within close proximity of each other. Volker Radloff, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who works at Silvis Labs, describes some WUI areas as “like a medieval city, with an urban city next to a big dark forest.” Some of the most heavily-damaged areas in Santa Rosa and Napa were in the middle of these areas.


Burned out and collapsed house along Mt Veeder Rd after flames from the Nuns fire moved through the Mt Veeder area in Napa, California, USA 11 Oct 2017.
Photo Peter DaSilva, Special to the Chronicle, SFgate.com


Development in such areas poses a significant problem for firefighters and communities. According to a 2002 report by FEMA, 38% of new home construction in the western United States was adjacent to or intermixed with WUI areas.While the causes of the fires are still under investigation, we do know what helped them spread quickly: abundant dried vegetation and seasonal wind patterns.

“After more than a decade of drought, the fuel levels—dry brush and grasses—across California are exceptionally high,” said William Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “Last winter’s welcome rains created more vegetation that, over the past six months, created more fuel.”

The fall season also typically brings hot, dry, and gusty winds. These Diablo winds are driven by atmospheric high-pressure systems over the Great Basin (mostly in Nevada). Winds blow from northeast to southwest over California’s mountain ranges and down through the valleys and coastal regions. These downslope winds can quickly whip up a fire and carry burning embers to the next neighborhood or patch of woodland.



People watch the sunset through smoke in the air from a fire on Mount Veeter in Napa, Calif. on Tuesday, October 10, 2017.
Photo: Elijah Nouvelage, Special to the Chronicle, SFgate.com


“The simple formula is fuel-plus-meteorology-plus-ignition equals fire. The catalyst is people,” Patzert added. 

“The fires erupted in areas where wildlands meet urban and suburban development. Californians have built in what are historical fire corridors, and these high-density developments are particularly vulnerable to fast-moving, destructive fires.”

No single fire can be specifically linked to climate change, and certainly other factors, such as increased development or logging and grazing activities, are involved. But scientists say there is a clear connection between global warming and the increase in recent years in the severity and frequency of wildfires in the West. 

“Climate change is kind of turning up the dial on everything,” expert LeRoy Westerling told CBS News. “Dry periods become more extreme. Wet periods become more extreme.”

While California prepares for what promises to be an arduous rebuilding, Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and other places hit by this year’s unprecedented back-to-back-to-back hurricanes are still mopping up and, in Puerto Rico’s case, just beginning to rebuild. So it would seem to be a natural time to talk about the possible role climate change and population density played in these disasters and about measures the nation should be taking to slow global warming. Instead, we have an administration that refuses even to consider the possibility of a connection, much less talk about solutions. Worse, it is taking steps in the wrong direction: pulling out of the Paris climate accord, reversing ruleson power plant emissions, staffing key agencies with climate-change deniers, while simultaneously pursuing a far right Christian militant policies on restrictions to birth control, that will increase the likelihood and frequency of tragedies such as the fires in California’s wine country, floods in Texas, hurricanes around the globe (this week Hurricane Ophelia is set to slam Ireland and the UK), and devastating droughts in places that until the 20th century had been relatively moist.


A red sun sets through a blanket of smoke over the vineyards off of Silverado Trail road Oct. 9, 2017 in Napa, Calif. A fire tore through the area on the evening of Oct. 8, destroying properties and vineyards.
Photo: Leah Millis, The Chronicle, SFgate.com
Burnt wine tanks at Paradise Ridge Vineyard behind Robert Ellison's sculpture "Frame"
Photo:  Noah Berger, Special to the Chronicle, SFgate.com

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Tens of thousands of wilting South Floridians stood hours in the sweltering, soggy heat Sunday at Tropical Park, waiting to apply for special food stamps available only to victims Hurricane Irma, stunning state officials who were expecting just a fraction of that response.

Over the weekend, several food assistance centers in Miami-Dade and Broward were abruptly shut downby local and state officials because of “health and safety concerns,” turning away thousands who lined up for the benefits.

Authorities said the crowd was just too overwhelming, leaving gridlocked streets at a standstill. Medics and police had to respond to many cases of heat exhaustion, as well as fights among “frustrated participants” applying for D-SNAP, the Department of Children and Families’ Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

A Manhattan Halloween

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The 10065 Zip Code (Manhattan, Upper East Side) is probably one of the best places in the world to see extravagant Halloween Displays for free.  These are some favorites.
 Falcone Mansion Werewolves

HAPPY HALLOWEEN

 Addams Family Fifth Avenue Mansion Opposite Jeff Koons
 American Horror Story
 Manhattan Carnegie Hill Townhouse Mansion Crows
 East 92nd Street Caution Tape Mansion
 Above and Below
More of the Falcone Mansion Display, including a hearse and a ghoul on a swing

 Gauntlet of Horrors
 Ghost of the Great Crash
 Creepy Werewolves or Gargoyles?
 Colorful Collection of Ghouls
 Park Avenue Halloween Mansion
 Two-Headed Princess

Hedge-Fund Halloween
Manhattan's Upper East Side
Manhattan's Upper East Side child-friendly aggressiveness is at no point more in evidence than in the days leading up to Oct. 31; we are now in the era of what one Park Avenue exile calls “a hedge-fund Halloween.” By this she means the relatively new tradition among town-house owners, mostly between Fifth Avenue and Lexington Avenue, to appoint the stoops and facades of their buildings as if someone had asked them to enact a 1%-ers nightmare: “Imagine that you’d failed to acquire some of the most expensive real estate on earth. Pretend you lived in Brooklyn instead, and not in Cobble Hill but in Dyker Heights, that distant precinct famous for its polyvinyl snowmen and street-clogging paeans to Christmas.”


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Some people might wonder what extremely wealthy people would do with potential further cuts to the capital gains tax, but these people don’t realize how many hay bales there are in the world, how many glitter pumpkins, mock corpses, enormous fake spiders, moving cobwebs and mechanical skeletons to buy and stage. 
The ivy isn't the only creepy thing hanging off the Lasry family mansion at East 74th Street.  Bloody, severed heads, screaming ghouls, skeletons and SpongeBob decorations have passersby doing double takes at an over-the-top Halloween display that has become a tradition for the family of hedge-fund manager Marc Lasry and his wife, Cathy Lasry, former president of the Eleanor Roosevelt Legacy Committee.
"It's more of a family thing we do to stay together," said Sophie Lasry, 18, one of the couple's five children, about the seven-year family ritual of decking their house for the season.
For several years now, Marc Lasry, the co-founder of Avenue Capital, has decorated the mansion with bloodied bodies hanging from the balcony, skeleton heads, a giant inflatable ghost, swinging bats and a life-size, clothed skeleton affixed to a tree on the sidewalk. One afternoon last week, tourists and children gathered to take pictures of a dancing skeleton beside the front door. It was singing Super Freak.” (Perhaps in the spirit of competition, the hedge fund manager Philip A. Falcone and his wife, Lisa Maria, have lavishly decorated the exterior of their 27,525-square-foot house on East 67th Street even though it is currently a construction site).
In the East 90s, similar expressions of enthusiasm abound and multiply. A town house on 91st Street between Park and Lexington features a giant inflatable coffin from which a vampire pops up every few seconds. On top of the stoop, guarding the front door, is an approximately eight-foot-tall plastic witch. Skeleton heads are submerged in the landscaping. “It has become an annual tradition to judge which of these displays are the most elaborate and which are professionally done,” Philip Gorrivan, the prominent interior designer and a Carnegie Hill parent, explained “There’s always a newcomer every year, a brownstone that has been completely gutted and renovated, and they’re typically the most incredible.”
It should go without saying that on the Upper East Side, where D.I.Y. is to many a foreign acronym, much of what is done in one’s home is done by someone else. In regard to Halloween, as the designer Celerie Kemble put it, “there has to be major credit-card waving and outsourcing; perhaps I’m cynical, but I’m awe-struck and a little frightened.”

As I toured the Upper East Side last week, I came to think of as utterly restrained the homeowner on East 80th Street who limited the fuss simply to 15 gourds and pumpkins.
While we might have expected to find some indignation on the part of the Carnegie Hill Neighbors, that upholder of preservation and enforcer of taste, the association turns out to be an avid supporter. For the second year in a row it will sponsor a party and costume contest, for which East 92nd Street between Madison and Park Avenues, a decorated block, will be closed. Lo van der Valk, president of the association, pointed to the importance of “private enterprise” for this booming culture of Halloween. Let the fogies, the bitter, the barren, the Scrooges flee early in horror to Palm Beach.


Spooky Maine Halloween
There are plenty of places in age-old Maine to find a spooky inspiration for Hallowen displays.  One of my favorites is in old church cemeteries.  The graves nearest the churches are usually the oldest.  Above:  The Spurwink Church in Cape Elizabeth, Maine.  Erected in 1802 this style of architecture is a blend of Federal, Gothic and Greek Revival that was frequently used in the early 19th century.

The church sits on a hill above the Spurwink River, upriver from where the first settlers built their homes.  The church's historic character is enhanced by the beauty of the salt marshes it overlooks.  Had I been at home with my iMac I would have airbrushed out the power lines, which kind of distract from its hot set ready look.  Unfortunately I do not have that capacity on my laptop.
 Above:  One of the oldest gravestones I found in the Spurwink Graveyard has a great inscription.  While badly eroded I believe it reads:  


Frederic W. Jordan, died Apr. 1, 1859, 
Æ. 38 yrs. 8 mos.  
"Happy soul, thy days are ended,
Thy term of probation is run,
Thy footsteps are upon the celestial shore,
And the race of immortals begun.

The inscription is a compilation of 17th century inspirational verses, hymns and poems.  It will make a great addition to my 21st-century Halloween display when I recreate it.
The Annie C. Maguire memorial is on the grounds of the Portland Head Lighthouse.  Annie C. Maguire was a British three-masted barque, sailing from Buenos Aires, on December 24, 1886, when she struck the ledge at Portland Head Light, Cape Elizabeth, Maine. Lighthouse Keeper Joshua Strout, his son, wife, and volunteers rigged an ordinary ladder as a gangplank between the shore and the ledge the ship was heeled against to rescue Captain O'Neil, the ship's master, his wife, two mates and the nine-man crew.  It would be a great Halloween scene, with skeletons on the shipwreck making they way to shore across the heaving ladder.

The Maguire memorial is steps away from the spot where legend says that Henry Wadsworth Longfellow sat and wrote his poem "The Lighthouse."


Sail on, Sail on ye stately ships
And with your floating bridge
the ocean span
Be mine to guard this light
from all eclipse
Be yours to bring man near
unto man.


 Above:  The "Barely Dead Cemetery" near Falmouth, Maine.  I liked how the sun was in the perfect position behind the spooky house to illuminate this shot of an elaborate Halloween display.  My favorite character is the werewolf at bottom left of the image, trying to crawl out of the cemetery.
 Above:  A Halloween Wedding complete with ring-bearing, juvenile zombies, on Highway 9 between Falmouth and Cumberland, Maine.
 Above:  A zombie road crew on a tractor near Cape Elizabeth, Maine.
 Above and Below:  A pumpkin festival in Scarborough, Maine.
The most interesting specimens were the Brodé Galeux D'Eysines, or Peanut-Shell Pumpkins (Cucurbita maxima), in the shot above.  This heirloom's French name translates "embroidered with warts from Eysines," referring to a small town in southwest France.  This heirloom pumpkin's random "peanut" warts bedeck the flesh-colored outer skin.
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great video about the artistic process

Cacho Falcon from Ben Winter on Vimeo.

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Halloween in the Land of the Walking Dead

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My favorite place to hang out and relax while exploring the Land of THE WALKING DEAD is on Whitewater Creek at Starr's Mill, located at the intersection of GA 74 and GA 85 about a mile north of Senoia, Georgia, the filming location for THE WALKING DEAD.  

As you can tell from my galleries of THE WALKING DEAD photos this is the spot I always end up for a respite from the crowds.  I've found the best way to get here from Atlanta while avoiding all the strip malls and other crap between is to take I-85 south out of Atlanta to GA 16.  Take 16 east into Senoia and then 85 north to the intersection of 74 and 85.  This way you miss all the traffic, lights, etc.  From this direction (coming in from the south) there is a little church on the NW corner of 74/85.  Drive behind the church and follow the dirt road down into the holler to the mill and park.  There are no signs or anything else to indicate there might be a park in the area.

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THE WALKING DEAD 
PORTFOLIOS







and the recent USA Today feature
which featured a some of our photos and hints.
The old mill was the site of a number of movies including my favorite, SWEET HOME ALABAMA.  There is a nice park that is never crowded and plenty of things to explore around the mill and mill pond.  

Take 85 the other direction out of Senoia, to the southwest and you'll see plenty of filming locations from Seasons 1-3 of THE WALKING DEAD especially around Haralson, Georgia.  

Standing atop the dam at the millpond looking down Whitewater Creek. There is no "whitewater" currently as the Southeast USA endures yet another extremely hot and dry month as we approach what should be winter.  Barely any water spills over the mill's dam today.
I like this fish-eye shot because it appears to illuminate photons spilling out of the sun.  It was a brilliant sunny late-October day with only a couple of other people in the park.  We spread out and had a great picnic far from the hustle and crowds of tourists trying to catch a glimpse of the stars just a couple miles away in Senoia.
One reason this spot is so deserted is because it is hard to find.  The roads (74 and 85) are much higher and the Mill sits down in a holler.  If you don't know what you're looking for, you pass right by.  The mill now appears on Google Maps since we've been writing about it for the past 7 years.  Your GPS likely won't be much help, however.
The creek is so dry that I was able to walk across it jumping from rock-to-rock.  I was also able to go underneath the mill to photograph the old wheel and stone.  Normally the water would be under the mill.

Below, the park around the Mill is full of tall pines which offer some shade.

 Standing in the middle of the Whitewater Creek, looking back toward our picnic on the banks to the right.
Senoia is a quaint, unspoiled Southern town on weekdays.  Weekends can be a bit hectic with Walker Stalkers everywhere and tour guide look-a-likes of the stars of the show leading crowds to all the various shooting locations around town.
After you tire of The Woodbury Shoppe (the official Walking Dead studio store) where you can buy all manner of Made in China crap including some of the flimsiest and tackiest overpriced t-shirts ever made, there is plenty of other stuff to see if you just walk a few blocks either side of Main Street Senoia.
 A lot of high-priced, what-not shops line Main Street.  There is now a public bathroom underneath the Walking Dead Cafe.  It was clean and tidy.
Below:  Main Street Senoia from The Walking Dead set at the bottom of the hill on Main Street (directly behind the post office).
Below:  The walls of Woodbury-Alexandria-Senoia snake through the north and west sides of the town where you once could catch a glimpse of the stars.  Today there are guards at every street and many streets are blocked off.  Take a telephoto lens if you really want to see the stars and make sure they're filming before you head down.
Click on the image above for larger view.  Expect lots of guards, lots of closed streets and no photos or autographs.
New Filming Locations
Part of Season 7 is being filmed on Jekyll Island, Georgia and on a recent weekend there were no trailers in the lot across the railroad tracks from the Fried Green Tomatoes house (below).  As Alexandria is supposed to be in Virginia we assume that Driftwood Beach on Jekyll Island could be acting as a stand in for the Potomac River?

The Season 7 premier was filmed partly on a lot and partly on Old Griffin Road, Brown Drive, and Old Highway 3.

The last week of October the cast is filming atCarol's Creepy House of Horrors and at the studio for some Hilltop scenes.  Raleigh Studios is located just south of Senoia.
In the gully between the FRIED GREEN TOMATOES House (at the corner of Travis and Bridge Streets, directly across the street from the railroad foot bridge) and the crew trailer village (below) are railroad tracks.  A 6-foot fence with an additional 4-foot green screen has been erected to keep prying eyes out.  The best place to catch a glimpse of stars coming and going is from the parking lot of the post office, which is public property.

Note:  The FRIED GREEN TOMATOES house is known as the Travis-McDaniel House and is unique because of the corner placement of the front door and sidewalk.  Much of the film was shot in Juliette, Georgia.

 Walking around Senoia you'll see plenty of other sites were movies have been filmed.  In particular I'm fond of the old Methodist Church (below) which has appeared in some favorite films.
Close-up of one of the stained glass windows


The Walking Dead Season 7:1
A Review
The Walking Dead Season 7 premier topped 20.8 million viewers.  That's the biggest thing on TV any way you slice (or bash) the numbers.  Those numbers were up in the low double digits from the ratings for the Season 6 finale.  And they beat the holy f--k out of "Sunday Night Football," the next-biggest thing on TV.  That said, there were some major problems with the Season 7 premier.

We won't be the first to say that THE WALKING DEAD has become more about violence for violence sake than any sort of character-driven drama (what made it so watchable in Seasons 1 and 2).  Season 7 started with an epic bloodbath in which Sgt. Abraham "Red" Ford (Michael Cudlitz) and Glenn (Steven Yeun, above) were . . . eliminated in front of all their friends. . . with a barbed-wire wrapped bat wielded by the psycho "Negan" (Jeffrey Dean Morgan).  It was unnecessarily gory to the point of being unwatchable.  

Negan is poorly overplayed by Morgan who seems to be trying too hard and is too clean with too-white, perfect teeth and perfectly groomed stubble; a cartoon villain. He monologues like a cartoon villain, too, going on and on about how he's in charge. I wanted to know his backstory.  What did he do before the zombie apocalypse?  I imagine he was a canvasser for the Donald Trump campaign.  I kept waiting for him to say "Who's next, let me grab one of these women by the p-ssy!" Yuck.  Negan is just. . . a guy with a bat in charge of an army who loves the sound of his own voice.

There was other bad writing and consistency errors that we could go into but they are overshadowed by the one-dimensional villain and the lines he spouts coupled with the gratuitous violence for no good reason other than to be stomach-churning.  

Other little things didn't make sense.  Why not kill Daryl when he's the one who punched Negan?  Why did Daryl lose his cool like that to begin with?  Even the somewhat touching scene at the end felt a bit melodramatic.  Maggie has no reason to go on alone, and it makes little sense for her to request to do so.

Also, how did the ax get on the roof of the trailer before Rick did?  Maybe Negan tossed it up there, but it sure looked like he tossed it out in to the zombie horde.  whatever the case, this was some weird direction that was confusing.

We'll always be fans of Season 1 and 2. . . and we'll always love Senoia, Georgia where the show is filmed, but from there. . . its been a long, slow slog to Must not see TV for me.
The Walking Dead Season 7:2
"The Well"
A Review
Sorry about all the violence and death last week, "Walking Dead" fans.  Here, have a tiger.

Or maybe a song.  Or how about a nice pork chop" (Actually, skip the pork chop.  Any physicians out there who can shed light on the health effects of eating pork raised on zombie flesh?)  These were just a few of the delights on offer this week when after las week's night of horror, we returned to the character-driven drama that we all loved with just a little horror and gore.

This was the Kingdom, a place of flourishing gardens, abundant cobbler and Renaissance Faire dialogue, overseen by the beneficent and dreadlocked King Ezekiel.  We learn later that the Arthurian airs were just that—a put on.  But upon the initial encounter with the bombastic amateur thespian I imagine most of us had reactions similar to Carol's:  This place is a joke.  How do I get out of here?

"The Walking Dead" is moving into a new phase, one defined less by the peregrinations and shifting fortunes of Rick and company, and more by the relationships between competing colonies, each with its own version of civilizations.  Season 7:2 represented a notable expansion not only of the players and cast of this story, but also of philosophy.
Khary Payton as King Ezekiel
on The Walking Dead
photo:  AMC

Viewers put off by 7:1s violence had something special waiting for them:  a sliced walker whose face opened like an old mailbox.  It was part of an impressionistic sequence that illustrated Carol's struggle to reconnect to her humanity, the walkers shifting between their pre- and post-death selves as riders wielded swords with ruthless grace.

At least I think that's what it was supposed to illustrate.  Like many "Walking Dead" set pieces, the line between meaningful moment and "check it out bro" visual effects was as hazy as Carol's perspective.  If nothing else it provided another wallow in fetishized gore for hot-takers to pares.

From, there, we got an introduction to the Kingdom, including Ezekiel's shtick; Richard the surly pig herder; Morgan training gentle Benjamin—a reader not a fighter—in the soulful art of aikido; and the Kingdom Tabernacle Choir tackling the work of freshly minted Nobel laureate (That was a Bob Dylan's "Don't Think Twice, Its Alright" song that was a high point for me but too much for others who prefer the Waylon Jennings bouncy, upbeat version to the soulful Kingdom Choir's melancholy.  Me, I'm a fan of the sorrowful which seemed the perfect compliment to lasting effect from the violence of episode 7:1).

There's a point in Ezekiel's fairy tale trappings about how fear turns people into children.  It deranges them an provokes regression, and makes them crave easily understood symbols, whether you're talking about a man with a tiger or a man with a phallic baseball bat wrapped in barbed wire.

I like the tiger, while others found it almost comical.  I wouldn't mind a break from the unremitting bleakness of recent seasons of "The Walking Dead." A week after Negan's ghastly home-run derby, especially, Ezekiel's ideas about "hope, heroism, grace and love" sound pretty good.

The ending:  The tiger King again attempting to tempt Carole into taking a bite. What's this all about?  I assume Ezekiel's interest in Carole and Morgan stems from their fighting skills, demonstrated in last season's clashes with the Saviors.  (As we saw with the pig handoff, the Kingdom has its own issues with the group.)  For Carole, does the pomegranate represent merely a commitment to comfort, hope and yet another group she'll one day be forced to defend?

Or is there something we don't yet understand about Ezekiel?  We know he's keeping secrets about his dealings with the Saviors.  What else could he be withholding?


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 6' (184 cm) Aussie James Yates, for Adon Magazine
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. . .takes a fresh look at fashion and style for men.  Every issues gives you insight into every aspect of the modern "it" man's life:  fashion, pop culture news, artistic projects and everyday fitness tips.



Halloween Scarecrows

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My Halloween scarecrow and pumpkinhead creation this year were made mostly from Hurricane Irma debris.  We have mountains of Spanish Moss on the ground so it seemed fitting to create my swamp monster and pumpkin head trick-or-treaters out of moss.

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 The big guy is 12-feet tall with an 8-foot arm span.  He looks out on the main road.

 The smaller pumpkin head is on his 3rd pumpkin head.  The first 2 rotted from the heat and/or were eaten by bugs.  The concept was a couple of trick-or-treaters in the swamp were attacked by a giant spider and the spider is in the process of eating them.
 The moss is in the process of transporting itself the the adjacent Rain Tree, which surprisingly bloomed a second time.  The first blooms were destroyed by the hurricane.  The arms arms are Queen Palm fronds.
More Scarecrows
My favorite annual scarecrow show is in the Atlanta Botanical Gardens.  This year my favorite entry was this "Princess Reuse-Recycle-Repurpose" witch created by the Assistance League of Atlanta.  She is artsy, spooky, scary, and the artists paid great attention to every small detail.  

The Assistance League is an all-volunteer, nonprofit organization helping people rebuild their lives and become self-sufficient.  They assist a network of 250 community partners to provide clothing household goods, hygiene kits, comfort items and educational aid to those affected by homelessness, abuse and poverty.  
From the beautifully expressive face to the sequined bodice to the flowing taffeta gown, stripped stockings and red heels, this witch is perfect.  I want her in my garden next Halloween.  She was about 40% larger than life-sized . . .or about 9-feet tall (3 m).
 Check out the detail on the stockings and shoes, and the artist was overheard saying it was the gardeners who removed the broom and replaced it with this rake.

 I even like her little handbag, and stockings and t-shirt.  Everything done to perfection and holding up quite well despite some rain and wind.
 Alas, she came in 3rd.  For the rest of the winners and other entrants check back tomorrow for a new post with more photos.
More Halloween:
The Krewe of Boo Halloween Parade in New Orleans


With all the attention Thanksgiving and Christmas get from travelers, it’s easy to overlook Halloween as a destination holiday. While a few cities provide a spooky vibe year-round, annual festivals, theme park pop-up events and other haunted happenings elsewhere have helped make the holiday a travel mini-season all its own.  Orlando, Savannah, Key West and New Orleans are 4 nearby favorites.
Halloween Horror Nights at Universal Studios in Orlando


Key West’s fabled 10-day festival of debauchery climaxed with a parade on October 28, 2017. Fantasy Fest 2017 provided a chance for locals to show the world that nothing could tamp down their quirky, uniquely Keys way of life — hurricanes included.  These are images of that celebration's final day parade from The Miami Herald's Matias Ocner. 




















Day of the Dead

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In Mexico City, the annual Day of the Dead parade on Saturday held special significance after the devastating quakes last month. CreditEdgard Garrido/Reuters


Day of the Dead begins on October 31st and ends November 2.  Día de Muertos is a Mexican holiday celebrated throughout Mexico, in particular the Central and South regions, and by people of Mexican ancestry living in other places, especially the United States. It is acknowledged internationally in many other cultures. The multi-day holiday focuses on gatherings of family and friends to pray for and remember friends and family members who have died, and help support their spiritual journey.


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Mexico’s Day of the Dead Parade Pays Tribute to Quake Victims

By THE NEW YORK TIMES OCT. 29, 2017

With faces painted as skulls and bodies made up like skeletons, throngs of performers marched through the streets of Mexico City on Saturday in a Day of the Dead (Día de los Muertos) parade in a country still mourning the nearly 500 people killed in back-to-back earthquakes last month.

Thousands of onlookers cheered and applauded as a giant raised fist constructed out of hard hats and pickaxes led the procession, signifying the resilient spirit of a country hit with one of its worst calamities in decades.

An 8.2-magnitude quake — the most powerful to hit Mexico in a century— struck off the Pacific Coast shortly before midnight on Sept. 7, setting off tsunami warnings, burying hundreds of people under collapsed buildings and scattering frightened residents into the streets.
Participants and onlookers alike painted their faces as colorful skulls — many in the style of Mexico’s iconic figure “La Catrina.” CreditEduardo Verdugo/Associated Press

Then, on Sept. 19, a 7.1-magnitude quake struck about 400 miles from the epicenter of the first one, toppling buildings, cracking highways and killing more than 200 people in Mexico City, the capital.

“For us as a society, it was something very violent that moved our conscience,” Ramón Márquez, 51, wearing an orange T-shirt emblazoned with the phrase “#fuerzamorelos” or “Be Strong Morelos,” said of one of the quakes, Reuters reported.

“The parade could be a distraction, a way of escaping,” he added.
The Calavera Catrina, or Dapper Skeleton, is the most representative image in the Day of the Dead festival. CreditMario Guzman/European Pressphoto Agency

There were dancing devils. Towering skeletons. Altars festooned with marigolds. All paraded down Mexico City’s main thoroughfare to kick off the annual Day of the Dead festivities that run through Nov. 2 with rituals continuing in town plazas, homes and cemeteries leading up to All Saints’ Day.

More than 700 performers prepared for months for the colorful afternoon procession along more than four miles of the Paseo de la Reforma.
Children had their faces painted in the style of La Catrina as they prepared to march. CreditRebecca Blackwell/Associated Press

They were joined by a group wearing fluorescent aid-worker vests who marched with fists in the air — a tribute to the rescuers who had made the gesture to demand silence as they listened for desperate survivors in the rubble from the second quake.

But the earthquakes did not diminish the centuries-old Mexican celebration. Participants and onlookers alike painted their faces as colorful skulls — many in the style of Mexico’s iconic figure known as La Catrina.
Musicians dressed as a Mexican character also known as “The Elegant Death.” CreditEdgard Garrido/Reuters

Local news media reported that at least 300,000 people attended Saturday’s parade, up from 200,000 last year.

Historians trace the origins of the multi-day fete back thousands of years to Mesoamerican festivals, when people believed that the dead returned temporarily to Earth.
Also in the procession: A puppet depicting the skeleton of a dog. CreditEdgard Garrido/Reuters

Day of the Dead is also meant as a celebration of life. Food, music and remembrance of relatives are interwoven in the festivities.

“We’re not only here to celebrate and dance, but also when there’s a disastrous situation we come together to help,” Violeta Canella Juárez, 31, said.
More than 700 performers prepared for months for the parade along more than four miles of the Paseo de la Reforma. CreditRebecca Blackwell/Associated Press



For 18 years, Hollywood Forever Cemetery has hosted a Dia de los Muertos, or Day of the Dead, celebration that draws thousands of people. (Hollywood Forever Cemetery)

As thousands prepared to head to Hollywood Forever Cemetery on Saturday for its 18th annual celebration of the Mexican tradition known as Dia de los Muertos, they had no shortage of places to shop.

Outfits adorned with images of colorful sugar skulls, skeletons and other traditional Day of the Dead symbols are available these days far beyond the small neighborhood stores that once had a lock on such things.

Target, Wal-Mart and other big retailers have plastered the theme on masks, paper plates and candle holders. There are Day of the Dead earrings and necklaces at Party City, costumes and headbands at Spirit Halloween stores and temporary tattoos and bed covers available at Etsy.com.
More Day of the Dead Photos from Mexico City 















More from our world —


Whether one embraces or mocks the paranormal, the many accounts that have spilled out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue over two centuries give ghosts an undeniable place in the country’s history. They also make that address arguably the nation’s most famous haunted house.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported last Friday that the federal budget deficit for the just-completed fiscal year had risen by $80 billion over fiscal 2016 to the ominous-sounding $666 billion, a number many people think is an omenfor the coming of the devil or anti-Christ.

In this case they may be right: The spending and taxing policies about to be put in place by the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress will balloon the federal deficit to $1 trillion or more every year going forward.

A cyclist and Trump's motorcade in Sterling on Saturday. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)

Some Heros Wear Bike Helmets

A cyclist flipped off Trump's motorcade and entered the annals of presidential protests


The departure of President Trump’s motorcade from his Sterling, Va., golf club on Saturday, October 28, 2017 was chronicled as dutifully and minutely as the retreat of some great army.


The president left Trump National Golf Club at 3:12 p.m. after spending the day there on the edge of the Potomac River.

A thick column of black SUVs escorted Trump past two pedestrians, a Guardian reporter wrote in a pool report— “one of whom gave a thumbs down sign.”

“Then it overtook a female cyclist, wearing a white top and cycling helmet, who responded by giving the middle finger.”

The cyclist was photographed for posterity. So was an “IMPEACH” sign held aloft outside the golf club that day.

On Twitter, Voice of America reporter Steve Herman offered his account as eyewitness to the following events:

“The cyclist flipped off @POTUS a second time when the motorcade halted at the traffic light,” he wrote. “No, we do not know her name.”

Nor does anyone know if Trump, behind bulletproof windows, had seen either of the cyclist’s streetside salutes.

But with knowns and unknowns thus established, the world set about interpreting a middle finger’s significance.

Newsweek wrote, perhaps speculatively, that “to flip off the president of the United States” seemed to be the cyclist’s single-minded goal.


The Guardian avoided analysis. The Reddit commenter zablyzibly did not: “Some heroes wear bike helmets.”

Accused of polluting the record of a motorcade’s passage with details that were not, really, news, Herman defended himself. “The cyclist’s act has certainly generated an emotional reaction among many,” he wrote.

We’ll go him one better. That fleeting, vulgar indignity to the world’s most powerful person was not just news, but a historical tradition.


and finally

 Argentine Actor/Model Nuel McGough





Fall in the Smoky Mountains

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There's fantastic color along the Blue Ridge Parkway in the Great Smoky Mountains this week.  We found the nicest drive out of Atlanta was to ignore the GPS and take I-75 north to Georgia 5 and then take the country roads heading north toward Woodstock, Holly Springs, and Canton.  We just kept heading north.

We were blessed with breezy, cool conditions and none of the smog that has become all too prevalent over the Great Smoky Mountains in recent years, as one of the year's first strong cold fronts had just blown through the region.


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Near Tate, Georgia G-5 turns into G-515 and then at Ellijay we veered off to the northeast toward Blue Ridge through the Chattahoochee-Oconee National Forest.  In my travels I have learned the real treasures are often found off the beaten path and far from modern life.
East of Blue Ridge we took US 19 north toward Murphy, North Carolina then followed US 74 along the rafting rivers between the Natahala National Forest and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.  This route becomes US 74/19 and eventually leads to Cherokee near Clingman's Dome (at 6,643 feet the highest point in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. . .but still a few feet shy of Mt. Mitchell, 6,684 feet, and Mt. Craig, 6,647 feet.)
Stay on US 19/74 and you'll eventually find I-40 near Asheville, North Carolina and you will have seen some of the most amazing scenery that the Smoky Mountains have to offer.

I got really annoyed with the GPS.  It wants to send you along the unsightly and overcrowded interstates of South Carolina (I-85 to I-26) to get you from Atlanta to Asheville.  Ignore the GPS.  Turn it off and get out an old fashioned map.  Those interstates are horrible, poorly maintained, and loaded with semi-trucks hauling all their crap back and forth between the large cities of the South.
Plot your own route along the stream valleys and through the foothills of the Smoky Mountains and you'll see sights like these.  If you happen upon the Blue Ridge Parkway, even better.  Take it in either direction and there are plenty of treasures to be found.  The Parkway offers slow-paced and relaxing drives revealing stunning long-range vistas and close-up views of mountains and pastoral landscapes of the Appalachian Highlands.  The Blue Ridge Parkway meanders for 469 miles through North Carolina and Virginia.
Carl Sandburg Home
National Historic Site
Outside of the tiny North Carolina town of Flat Rock one finds Connemara Farms, the Carl Sandberg National Historic Site (below).
The people's poet said he needed solitude to write, and enough distance between the house and goat barns (his wife's hobby) to keep things quiet.  His wife Lilian dreamed of ample pastures for her goats and a milder climate than their Michigan home provided.  They bought this 245-acre estate in the mountains and meadows of far western North Carolina and found the solitude and space for their dreams.
THE CREATIVE HUSH
Sandburg wrote of his last home that he found there
a bracing clarity of mountain air—a great stillness.
and something he liked to call
the creative hush.
We found that hush walking up the steep path from Little River Road to the house along the massive green pastures of Sandburg's 30 acre front lawn.
Below, a couple of retiring stands of Goldenrod along a pasture's fence line.
Carl Sandburg had many interests, but none fascinated him more than Abraham Lincoln.  He collected, read, and pondered every scrap of information he could find about Lincoln.  While working as a movie critic for the Chicago Daily News, he wrote The Prairie Years, a 344,000-word, two-volume set about Lincoln's life up to his presidency.  Sandburg had become so engrossed in the subject that he left his newspaper job to pursue the subject.  He increased his lecturing schedule to support the family, and devoted much of 13 years to working on Abraham Lincoln:  the War Years, a 1,175,000-word, four-volume sequel for which he received the Pulitzer Prize for history in 1940.

Above:  blogger (far right) exploring the hushed hills around Sandburg's house. The National Park was virtually deserted on a recent afternoon.  I imagined everyone was in their cars on those polluted and crowded interstates far from this lovely, quiet spot.

In 1945 Sandburg was already 67 years old and world-famous when he resettled on this quiet hilltop in the North Carolina's mountains at Flat Rock.  He brought along his wife, daughters, and grandchildren.  At the time he was considered unorthodox—a poet, journalist, children's writer, political activist, lecturer, folk singer, and popular biographer.

Sandburg knew what it was like to work with his hands.  He had seen his parents and other immigrants struggle to eke out a living.  He held many varied jobs before becoming a newspaper writer, poet, and author. 

Though rock-star-like famous in his day he never forgot his roots as he championed the everyday lives and causes of ordinary people.  With his pen and his typewriter, with his poetry and prose, Sandburg recounted the thoughts and dreams of cornhuskers, butchers, bricklayers, steelworkers, stenographers, and housewives as they went about their daily American lives.  To him they were America and he was their advocate.
It has been said of Carl Sandburg that in his later life he sometimes became the only passionate champion of people who did not have the words or power to speak for themselves.  Carl Sandburg's voice spoke loudly to the feelings and thoughts of his fellow Americans for two-thirds of the 20th century.
After Sandburg died in 1967, Congress established his home as a National Historic Site.  This is the first unit of the National Park Service created to honor an American poet.
The park service has kept Connemara Farms much as it would have been in the 1950s.  The hustle of modern life is many miles away via the Greenville Highway near Hendersonville, North Carolina.  Even the walk from the parking area to the house is quiet, and steep. . . up either side of lush green pastures along tree-lined, rock-walled paths.  

Thankfully you won't find any corporate crap for many miles around this site.  It would have surely broken Sandburg's heart to see what has become of the cities in the Smoky Mountains with all of the ubiquitous American chain restaurants, stores and other detritus of modern life that now enslaves a new generation of Americans.
The gardens are still maintained as they would have been in the 1950s.  

Below:  Late season okra (Abelmoschus esculentus) continues to bloom on 8-foot-tall stalks.
Below:  Look closely in the center of the image for the okra fruit in this artsy shot of perhaps one of the last stalks to make it in their 2014 garden.  The nights were quite cold at this elevation.
Below:  One of the stone wall lined paths leading through the woods to Carl Sandburg's Home.
BREATHING TOKENS
Give me a quiet garret alone
Where I may sit for a few casual callers
And tell them carelessly, offhandedly,
'This is where I dirty paper.'
Thus each poet prays and dreams.
The eternal hobo asks for a quiet room
with a little paper he can dirty,
with birds who sit where he tells 'em.
At Connemara Farms there remain 5 miles (8 km) of hiking trains, two small lakes, several ponds, flower and vegetable gardens and an apple orchard.
Rock Walls
What must it mean to build these things of beauty
that one knows will last for generations?
A damned stream creates a pond.
Carl Sandburg's long road to the North Carolina mountains started on the prairies of Illinois in 1878.  He was the maverick son of struggling Swedish immigrants.  Above all Sandburg wanted to be known as an American.
Poet of the People
Sandburg found his literary voice, not in Paris or New York, but working in small Midwestern towns and farms , and on the streets of Chicago and Milwaukee.  He loved the words of the heartland he collected on his travels, and experimented with their shapes and sounds.  By the 1920s he was widely acknowledged to be a Poet of the People.
Below:  The rose garden, overlooking a pasture and the Great Smoky Mountains in the distance.
Solitude
Connemara Farms
A Home for Champions
Many visitors to this barn had little idea that a world-famous writer lived nearby, for they had come here to find out about raising dairy goats.  Internationally known for breeding world-record milk producers, Mrs. Sandburg managed a herd of over 200 goats here in the years of 1945-1966.  Imagine how boisterous this barnyard would have been at feeding and milking time each morning and evening.

Perhaps unusual for their time, Lilian and Carl Sandburg were life-long boosters of each other's chosen work.  A graduate of the University of Chicago who had taught literature and expression, Lilian recognized Carl's talent for writing and always remained his steadfast supporter.
As his fame grew, Carl made sure that Lilian's expertise in goat genetics shared the limelight with his writing in the many articles published about the Sandburgs.  Her success in improving and promoting dairy goats, he often said, was due to genius, knowledge, and lighted enthusiasms.
Today a small herd of dairy goats still remains in what can only be described as goat heaven atop this quiet hill, surrounded by towering peaks of the Great Smoky Mountains.
Halloween Spiders
Back in Florida these Halloween spiders are making my evening walks. . . difficult.
This particular specimen may be a Carolina Wolf Spider (Hogna carolinensis).  I am not a spider expert but he does have the short legs and stocky body characteristic of wolf spiders.

Every night he builds an elaborate web from ground up near the front door and I walk right into the web, arms flailing, trying to get the spider off of me.  He never learns that I will be going for my walk late in the evening. . .but I've now learned to carry a bright light and look for him.

As I take my evening walks (now moonless) I usually carry a big stick in front of me to catch any spiders and their webs before they attach to me.  While most are not poisonous I am mildly allergic to their bites.
In these shots it does look appropriate for the season.   While I would never intentionally kill the spider I wouldn't mind if he moved on.  


More images of the most common SPIDERS OF FLORDA here.
And back to the Smoky Mountains. . . goofing with the camera near Craggy Gardens along the Blue Ridge Parkway.  These highest elevations summits east of the Mississippi River offer spectacular views.
And. . . atop Mt. Mitchell
the highest point east of the Mississippi River at 6,578 feet.  I had forgotten my gloves.  It was below freezing and quite windy.  But what a view!  Billed as the "coldest place in the South" I would have to agree.  It was quite a nice change from the heat and humidity of Florida.
So why "Mitchell?" The mountain was named after a professor at the University of North Carolina, Elisha Mitchell, who determined its height in 1835 and fell to his death at nearby Mitchell Falls in 1857, having returned to verify his earlier measurements.  There is a thermometer at the top. . . a little open air shop to buy some soda or whatever (if you can feel your fingers), an observation deck, and the tomb of Professor Mitchell.
Welcome to North Carolina
Clowning around with "welcome" signs. . . 
I'm pleased to report that others were lined up to do the same.
And This:
Prospects are getting younger

Could the NBA’s age limit be on its way out? In October, during an appearance on ESPN’s Mike & Mike, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said that “it’s clear a change will come.” Silver indicated that he was open to working with the players’ union to potentially eliminate or at the least revise the age restriction. It was a reversal for Silver, who, as recently as 2014, made raising the league’s age minimum from 19 to 20 years old his top priority.

Almost two-thirds say this is the lowest point in U.S. history—and it's keeping a lot fo them up at night
For those lying awake at night worried about health care, the economy, and an overall feeling of divide between you and your neighbors, there’s at least one source of comfort: Your neighbors might very well be lying awake, too.


Almost two-thirds of Americans, or 63 percent, report being stressed about the future of the nation, according to the American Psychological Association’s Eleventh Stress in America survey, conducted in August and released on Wednesday, November 1, 2017.  This worry about the fate of the union tops longstanding stressors such as money (62 percent) and work (61 percent) and also cuts across political proclivities. However, a significantly larger proportion of Democrats (73 percent) reported feeling stress than independents (59 percent) and Republicans (56 percent).

52 Environmental Rules on the Way Out Under Trump

OVERTURNED

1. Revoked Obama-era flood standards for federal infrastructure projects
This Obama-era rule, revoked by Mr. Trump in August, required that federal agencies protect new infrastructure projects by building to higher flood standards. Building trade groups and many Republican lawmakers opposed it as costly and burdensome.
2. Rejected a proposed ban on a potentially harmful insecticide
Dow Agrosciences, which sells the insecticide chlorpyrifos, opposed a risk analysis by the Obama-era E.P.A. that found the compound posed a risk to fetal brain and nervous system development. Mr. Pruitt rejected the E.P.A.'s analysis, arguing the chemical needed further study.
3. Lifted a freeze on new coal leases on public lands
Coal companies weren't thrilled about the Obama administration's three-year freeze pending an environmental review. Mr. Zinke, the interior secretary, revoked the freeze and review in March. He appointed members to a new advisory committee on coal royalties in September.
4. Canceled a requirement for oil and gas companies to report methane emissions
In March, Republican officials from 11 states wrote a letter to Mr. Pruitt, saying the rule added costs and paperwork for oil and gas companies. The next day, Mr. Pruitt revoked the rule.
5. Revoked a rule that prevented coal companies from dumping mining debris into local streams
The coal industry said the rule was overly burdensome, calling it part of a “war on coal.” In February, Congress passed a bill revoking the rule, which Mr. Trump signed into law.
6. Approved the Keystone XL pipeline
Republicans, along with oil, gas and steel industry groups, opposed Mr. Obama's decision to block the pipeline, arguing that the project would create jobs and support North American energy independence. After the pipeline company reapplied for a permit, the Trump administration approved it.
7. Approved the Dakota Access pipeline
Republicans criticized Mr. Obama for delaying construction after protests led by the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe. Mr. Trump ordered an expedited review of the pipeline, and the Army approved it. Crude oil began flowing on June 1, but a federal judge later ordered a new environmental review.
8. Prohibited funding third-party projects through federal lawsuit settlements, which could include environmental programs
Companies settling lawsuits with the federal government have sometimes paid for third-party projects, like when Volkswagen put $2.7 billion toward pollution-fighting programs after its emissions cheating scandal. The Justice Department has now prohibited such payments, which some conservatives have called “slush funds.”
9. Repealed a ban on offshore oil and gas drilling in the Atlantic and Arctic oceans
Lobbyists for the oil industry were opposed to Mr. Obama's use of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act to permanently ban offshore drilling along parts of the Atlantic coast and much of the ocean around Alaska. Mr. Trump repealed the policy in an April executive order and instructed his interior secretary, Mr. Zinke, to review the locations made available for offshore drilling.
10. Proposed the use of seismic air guns for gas and oil exploration in the Atlantic
Following a executive order in April known as the America-First Offshore Energy Strategy, the Trump administration began an application process to allow five oil and gas companies to survey the Atlantic using seismic air guns, which fire loud blasts that can harm whales, fish and turtles. The Obama administration had previously denied such permits.
11. Revoked a 2016 order protecting the northern Bering Sea region in Alaska
Mr. Trump revoked Mr. Obama’s 2016 order protecting the Bering Sea and Bering Strait by conserving biodiversity, engaging Alaska Native tribes and building a sustainable economy in the Arctic, which is vulnerable to climate change.
12. Repealed an Obama-era rule regulating royalties for oil, gas and coal
Lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry opposed 2016 Interior Department regulations meant to ensure fair royalties were paid to the government for oil, gas and coal extracted from federal or tribal land. In August, the Trump administration rescinded the rule, saying it caused “confusion and uncertainty”for energy companies.
13. Withdrew guidance for federal agencies to include greenhouse gas emissions in environmental reviews
Republicans in Congress opposed the guidelines, which advised federal agencies to account for possible climate effects in environmental impact reviews. They argued that the government lacked the authority to make such recommendations, and that the new rules would slow down permitting.
14. Relaxed the environmental review process for federal infrastructure projects
Oil and gas industry leaders said the permit-issuing process for new infrastructure projects was costly and cumbersome. In an August executive order, Mr. Trump announced a policy he said would streamline the process for pipelines, bridges, power lines and other federal projects. The order put a single federal agency in charge of navigating environmental reviews, instituted a 90-day timeline for permit authorizaton decisions and set a goal of completing the full process in two years.
15. Announced intent to stop payments to the Green Climate Fund
Mr. Trump said he would cancel payments to the fund, a United Nations program that helps developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. Mr. Obama had pledged $3 billion, $1 billion of which Congress has already paid out over the opposition of some Republicans.
16. Dropped proposed restrictions on mining in Bristol Bay, Alaska
A Canadian company sued the E.P.A. over an Obama-era plan to restrict mining in Bristol Bay, an important salmon fishery. The Trump administration settled the suit and allowed the company to apply for permits to build a large gold and copper mine in the area. Alaska Republicans, including Senator Lisa Murkowski, supported the mine.
17. Removed the Yellowstone grizzly bear from the endangered list
Noting that the species population had “rebounded from as few as 136 bears in 1975 to an estimated 700 today,” the Interior Department delisted the Yellowstone grizzly. Delisting the bears was first formally proposed by the Obama administration in March 2016.
18. Overturned a ban on the hunting of predators in Alaskan wildlife refuges
Alaskan politicians opposed the law, which prevented hunters from shooting wolves and grizzly bears on wildlife refuges, arguing that the state has authority over those lands. Congress passed a bill revoking the rule, which Mr. Trump signed into law.
19. Withdrew proposed limits on endangered marine mammals caught by fishing nets on the West Coast
Under Mr. Trump, the National Marine Fisheries Service withdrew the proposed rule, noting high costs to the fishing industry and arguing that sufficient protections were already in place.
20. Stopped discouraging the sale of plastic water bottles in national parks
The National Park Service had urged parks to reduce or eliminate the sale of disposable plastic water bottles in favor of filling stations and reusable bottles. The International Bottled Water Association called the action unjustified.
21. Rescinded an Obama-era order to consider climate change in managing natural resources in national parks
The 2016 policy, which called for scientific park management, among other objectives, was contested by Republicans. In August, the National Park Service said they rescinded the policy in order to eliminate confusion among the public and National Parks Service employees regarding the Trump administration’s “new vision” for America’s parks.
22. Revoked directive for federal agencies to mitigate the environmental impacts of projects they approve
In a March executive order, Mr. Trump revoked an Obama-era memorandum that instructed five federal agencies to “avoid and then minimize” the impacts of development on water, wildlife, land and other natural resources. The memo also encouraged private investment in restoration projects.
23. Directed agencies to stop using an Obama-era calculation of the “social cost of carbon”
As part of an expansive March 2017 executive order, Mr. Trump directed agencies to stop using an Obama-era calculation that helped rulemakers monetize the costs of carbon emissions and instead base their estimates on a 2003 cost-benefit analysis. Mr. Trump also disbanded the working group that created estimates for the social cost of carbon.
24. Revoked an update to the Bureau of Land Management's public land use planning process
Republicans and fossil fuel industry groups opposed the updated planning rule for public lands, arguing that it gave the federal government too much power at the expense of local and business interests. Congress passed a bill revoking the rule, which Mr. Trump signed into law.
25. Removed copper filter cake, an electronics manufacturing byproduct, from the “hazardous waste” list
Samsung petitioned the E.P.A. to delist the waste product, which is produced during electroplating at its Texas semiconductor facility. The E.P.A. granted the petition after a public comment period.

IN PROGRESS

26. Proposed repeal and replacement of the Clean Power Plan
Coal companies and Republican officials in many states opposed the plan, Mr. Obama’s signature climate policy, which set strict limits on carbon emissions from existing coal- and gas-fired power plants. Mr. Trump issued an executive order in March instructing the E.P.A. to re-evaluate the plan, which is tied up in court and has not yet taken effect. In October, the E.P.A. proposed repealing the plan and opened a public comment period soliciting suggested replacements.
27. Announced intent to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement
Arguing that it tied his hands in matters of domestic energy policy, Mr. Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris accord, under which the United States had pledged to cut emissions by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. The Trump administration has formally notified the United Nations of its intent to withdraw, but it cannot complete the process until late 2020.
28. Proposed rescinding a rule that protected tributaries and wetlands under the Clean Water Act
Farmers, real estate developers, golf course owners and many Republicans opposed an Obama-era clarification of the Clean Water Act that extended protections over small waterways. Under Mr. Trump's direction, Mr. Pruitt released a proposal in June to roll back the expanded definition.
29. Reopened a review of fuel-efficiency standards for cars and trucks
Automakers said it would be difficult and costly to meet fuel economy goals they had agreed upon with the Obama administration. Under Mr. Trump, the E.P.A. and Department of Transportation have reopened a standards review for model years 2021 through 2025. The administration is also considering easing penalties on automakers who do not comply with the federal standards.
30. Recommended shrinking or modifying 10 national monuments
Republicans in Congress said the Antiquities Act, which allows presidents to designate national monuments, had been abused by previous administrations. Mr. Obama used the law to protect more than 4 million acres of land and several million square miles of ocean. Mr. Trump ordered a review of recent monuments; his interior secretary, Ryan Zinke, recommended changes for 10 sites.
31. Reviewing 12 marine protected areas
As part of his April executive order aimed at expanding offshore oil and gas drilling, Mr. Trump called for a review of national marine sanctuaries and monuments designated or expanded within the past decade. In June, NOAA announced that 12 protected marine areas were under review.
32. Reviewing limits on toxic discharge from power plants into public waterways
Utility and fossil fuel industry groups opposed the rule, which limited the amount of toxic metals — arsenic, lead and mercury, among others — power plants could release into public waterways. Industry representatives said complying with the guidelines, which were to take effect in 2018, would be extremely expensive. In September, Mr. Pruitt postponed the rule until 2020.
33. Reviewing rules regulating coal ash waste from power plants
Utility industry groups petitioned to change the rule, which regulates how power plants dispose of coal ash in waste pits often located near waterways. The E.P.A. agreed to reconsider the rule.
34. Reviewing emissions standards for new, modified and reconstructed power plants
In addition to the Clean Power Plan, Mr. Trump's Executive Order on Promoting Energy Independence called on the E.P.A. to review a related rule limiting carbon dioxide emissions from new, modified, and reconstructed power plants.
35. Reviewing emissions rules for power plant start-ups, shutdowns and malfunctions
Power companies and other industry groups sued the Obama administration over the rule, which asked 36 states to tighten emissions exemptions for power plants and other facilities. The E.P.A. under Mr. Trump asked the court to suspend the case while the rule undergoes review.
36. Announced plans to review greater sage grouse habitat protections
Oil and gas industry leaders called the Obama administration's plan for protecting the bird “deeply flawed” and welcomed the Interior Department review, which will reassess restrictions on energy production.
37. Announced plans to rescind water pollution regulations for fracking on federal and Indian lands
Energy companies petitioned the Bureau of Land Management to rescind the rule, which was proposed by Mr. Obama in 2015 but never enforced amid legal challenges. In July, the bureau announced plans to revoke the rule, citing Mr. Trump's "prioritization of domestic energy production."
38. Ordered review of regulations on oil and gas drilling in national parks where mineral rights are privately owned
Mr. Trump’s March executive order called for a review of Obama-era updates to a 50-year-old rule regulating oil and gas drilling in national parks with shared ownership. (Most national parks are owned solely by the government, and drilling in them is banned. In some parks, though, the government owns the surface but the mineral rights are privately held.)
39. Reviewing new safety regulations on offshore drilling
The American Petroleum Institute and other trade groups wrote to the Trump administration, raising concerns over oil rig safety regulations implemented after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill. In August, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement confirmed it was moving forward with the review. Mr. Trump had ordered a review of the rules earlier in the year.
40. Ordered a review of a rule regulating offshore oil and gas exploration by floating vessels in the Arctic
As part of the expansive executive order on offshore driling, Mr. Trump called for an immediate review of a rule intended to strengthen safety and environmental standards for exploratory drilling in the Arctic. The rule, a response to the 2013 Kulluk accident in the Gulf of Alaska, increased oversight of floating vessels and other mobile offshore drilling units.
41. Proposed ending a restriction on exploratory drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
Republicans have long sought to to open the Alaska refuge to gas and oil driling. In August, an Interior Department internal memo proposed lifting restrictions on exploratory seismic studies in the region, which covers more than 30,000 square miles and is home to polar bears, caribou and other Arctic animals.
42. Ordered a review of federal regulations on hunting methods in Alaska
Obama-era rules prohibited certain hunting methods in Alaska’s national preserves. They overruled state law, which had allowed hunters to bait bears with food, shoot caribou from boats and kill bear cubs with their mothers present. Alaska sued the Interior Department, claiming that the regulations affected traditional harvesting. The Trump administration ordered a review.
43. Proposed repeal of a requirement for reporting emissions on federal highways
Transportation and infrastructure industry groups opposed a measure that required state and local officials to track greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles on federally funded highways. The rule took effect in September after the Trump administration's attempts to postpone it were challenged in court. But the administration formally proposed reversing the rule the next week.
44. Announced a review of emissions standards for trailers and glider kits
Stakeholders in the transportation industry opposed the Obama-era rule, which for the first time applied emissions standards to trailers and glider vehicles. They argued that the E.P.A. lacked the authority to regulate them, because their products are not motorized.

IN LIMBO

45. Reviewing a rule limiting methane emissions at new oil and gas drilling sites
Lobbyists for the oil and gas industries petitioned Mr. Pruitt to reconsider a rule limiting emissions of methane and other pollutants from new and modified oil and gas wells. A federal appeals court has ruled that the E.P.A. must enforce the Obama-era regulation while it rewrites the rule. The E.P.A. said it may do so on a “case by case” basis.
46. Put on hold rules aimed at cutting methane emissions from landfills
Waste industry groups objected to this Obama-era regulation, which required landfills to set up methane gas collection systems and monitor emissions. In May, the E.P.A. suspended enforcement of the new standards for 90 days, pending a review. Environmental groups challenged the action in court, but the delay period has since passed, throwing the status of the case into question.
47. Proposed delay of rule limiting methane emissions on public lands
The oil and gas industry opposed the rule, which required companies to control methane emissions on federal or tribal land. The House voted this year to revoke the rule, but the Senate rejected the measure, 51 to 49. The Bureau of Land Management later suspended enforcement of parts of the rule. In October, a federal court ruled that the delay was unlawful and ordered immediate enforcement. The next day, the Bureau of Land Management proposed a new delay, this time asking for public comment.
48. Delayed a lawsuit over a rule regulating airborne mercury emissions from power plants
Coal companies, along with Republican officials in several states, sued over this Obama-era rule, which regulated the amount of mercury and other pollutants that fossil fuel power plants can emit. They argued that the rule helped shutter coal plants, many of which were already compliant. Oral arguments in the case have been delayed while the E.P.A. reviews the rule.
49. Delayed a rule aiming to improve safety at facilities that use hazardous chemicals
Chemical, agricultural and power industry groups said that the rule, a response to a 2013 explosion at a fertilizer plant that killed 15 people, did not increase safety. Mr. Pruitt delayed the standards until 2019, pending a review. Eleven states are now suing over the delay.
50. Continuing review of proposed groundwater protections for certain uranium mines
Republicans in Congress came out against the 2015 rule. They said the E.P.A. had not conducted an adequate cost-benefit analysis of the rule, which regulated byproduct materials from a type of uranium mining. The Obama administration submitted a revised proposal one day before Mr. Trump was sworn into office. The Trump administration must now decide the fate of the rule.
51. Delayed compliance dates for federal building efficiency standards
Republicans in Congress opposed the rules, which set efficiency standards for the design and construction of new federal buildings. The Trump administration delayed compliance until Sept. 30, but it is unclear whether the rules are now in effect.
52. Withdrew a rule that would help consumers buy more fuel-efficient tires
The rule required tire manufacturers and retailers to provide consumers with information about replacement car tires. The tire industry opposed several aspects of the rule, but had been working with the government to refine it. The Trump administration withdrew the proposed rule in January but has not said whether it may be reinstated.

Some other rules were
reinstated after legal challenges

Environmental groups have sued the Trump administration over many of the proposed rollbacks, and, in some cases, have succeeded in reinstating environmental rules.
1. Delayed by one year a compliance deadline for new ozone pollution standards, but later reversed course
Mr. Pruitt initially delayed the compliance deadline for a 2015 national ozone standard, but reversed course after 15 states and the District of Columbia sued.
2. Delayed publishing efficiency standards for household appliances
After being sued by a number of states and environmental groups for failing to publish efficiency standards for appliances including heaters, air conditioners and refrigerators, the Trump administration released its rules on May 26.
3. Reinstated rule limiting the discharge of mercury by dental offices into municipal sewers
The E.P.A. reinstated an Obama-era rule that regulated the disposal of dental amalgam, a filling material that contains mercury and other toxic metals. The agency initially put the rule on hold as part of a broad regulatory freeze, but environmental groups sued. The American Dental Association came out in support of the rule.
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